The Panic of 2008 (Trees And Things)

Toby Flip: Re: The Crash of 2008

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 18:45:22 EST

As nations like Russia, India and Canada develops

As a Canadian, I totally can't wait for this day.

Also, where do the 5-1 Debt to GDP ratio come from? I thought it was around 2/3. Although the US was dumb to be running deficits in

wetkarma: Re: The Crash of 2008

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 11:26:31 EST

You mean 13T/year, yes?

Laugh. Yes my bad.

gerrymander: Re: The Crash of 2008

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 11:04:25 EST

American GDP is something close to 3t/Year.

You mean 13T/year, yes?

pO157: Re: The Crash of 2008

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 06:41:04 EST

These things:
1. There will come a point in the next few decades where the USA will default on its debt obligations unable/politically unwilling to raise taxes to meet revenue needs.
2. There will come a point where Medi

wetkarma: Re: The Crash of 2008

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 06:19:00 EST
American GDP is something close to 3t/Year. The national debt is 8t+ (closer to 9 than 8) and growing by a couple billion a day. This figure doesn't include our future debt obligation (from social security + medicare) which is around 53t.
Government as

wetkarma: Re: The Crash of 2008

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 06:06:07 EST
In regard to the idea that China will never discard their best customers, its worth noting that the USA while a major trade partner with China, does not represent the major

thefadd: Re: The Crash of 2008

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 03:35:40 EST
The whole Chinese pull the rug out on the American economy is well overblown. There comes a point when someone is so dependent on you that you become nearly as inextricably dependent on them. If Americans can't afford Chinese goods, the Chinese economy won

port1080: Re: The Crash of 2008

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 03:00:38 EST
Considering that a collapse of this degree hasn't happened since the Great Depression (and, if I'm reading you right, you see this as being even worse than the G.D.) doesn't this picture strike you as somewhat alarmist? Nobody wants the US to collapse tha

wetkarma: Re: The Crash of 2008

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 02:30:19 EST

What does "structural collapse" look like in your mind?
These things:

There will come a point in the next few decades where the USA will default on its debt obligations unable/politically unwilling to raise taxes to me

thefadd: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 17:39:04 EST
Personally, I'm cheering for the oddly dressed trannys.

pO157: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 16:56:56 EST
Yeah, what are we talking about here? Minor market correction, major market correction, major recession, Great Depression style event, or some kind of worst case scenario involving hoarding of shotguns, ammo, guitar strings, and a Mad Max situation of oddl

thefadd: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 15:14:11 EST
What does "structural collapse" look like in your mind?

novy: Re: p.s. I'm a genius

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 15:06:36 EST
This article from submission sitting in sub-q on Plastic was published on Sunday and says "S.& P. recently raised the odds of a recession this ye

pO157: As usual, fuzzy on the details....

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 13:27:26 EST
So what is the trigger for the rebate/stimulus check/bribe going to be? Paying at least one dollar after tax returns are filed, and not receiving all of your federal withholding back?

eduardo: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 13:21:31 EST
Well, I got my 4th-quarter statement about my 403B plan, and it had a net loss of >$10K. The small portion that I have invested in international funds grew by ~$500. My bond fund was pretty much flat.
As the old expression goes, "don't

wetkarma: Re: p.s. I'm a genius

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 13:14:44 EST

Considering New York Times was predicting same thing on Saturday, maybe your genius consists of ability to read combined with basic economic literacy.
Link? I don't recall reading an article predicting a .75c basis cut this morning but if on

novy: Re: p.s. I'm a genius

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 13:09:41 EST
Considering New York Times was predicting same thing on Saturday, maybe your genius consists of ability to read combined with basic economic literacy.

novy: Re: Don't Worry

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 13:07:45 EST
No, not every American. Your president wants $800 to go to Americans who pay taxes, not those who make too little to pay taxes or retirees who don't pay taxes. You might think that Democrats in Congress would insist that money goes to poor and working poor

uncarved block: Not Much Difference Here

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 12:55:07 EST
The only thing a crash might have is moving my (eventual) relocation to the Northwest back another year or two; with Portland being the most likely spot for me to land, moving back in the midst of a crunch makes little sense. But that's assum

pO157: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 11:02:23 EST
As a BJ's (heh heh) member, I can say the savings are somewhat worthwhile if you play it right. We go once every 2-3 months, and stock up on an absurd amount of things need that store for a long time. When you couple that with their instant rebates and in

novy: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 10:28:16 EST
Fed learned something from Great Depression. Trying to get out of liquidity crisis by being fiscally responsible/conservative resembles trying to get out of anorexia problem by eating less. They won't make that mistake again, as both Hoover and Roos

skeeter1: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 10:05:51 EST
"but the last time I checked the chunk of their profits came not from the sale of goods but from their membership fees."
That's been my feeling as well. I've looked into Costco , Sam's Club (owned by friendly folks that gave us WalMart), an

pO157: Don't Worry

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 09:14:30 EST
This is all under control. The President will sign a law giving every American a free $800 to spend on whatever cheap plastic trinkets they want.
Ever

joshv: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 09:08:41 EST
Well, I don't know that I need sympathy - I'll probably pull through just fine even if there is a serious economic downturn - especially if there is significant inflation. I could stand to see my wife's school debt, and our mortgage debt decrease in

wetkarma: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 08:54:42 EST
I haven't owned Costco financial statements in a while, but the last time I checked the chunk of their profits came not from the sale of goods but from their membership fees. My perspective is that people will buy at wharehouse clubs even more because the

skeeter1: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 08:44:16 EST
"I am however probably about a year of unemployment away from bankruptcy"
I feel for you there, pal. I've been unemployed (voluntarily) for 5 years now. I did a fairly good job of stashing away a few bucks (best advice my dad ever gav

joshv: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 08:34:31 EST
Have you been to a Costco lately? Sure I buy coffee and other staples there, but at least half of their inventory is higher end products that are reasonably priced - things that most people can do without or find cheaper replacements for. And I

wetkarma: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 08:15:34 EST
I don't think you and I disagree how much of a debt hole the country is in. However much of that debt won't become critical for a decade or so yet. There is still gas in the American engine.
Addressing your points in turn:

Unemp

joshv: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 08:02:34 EST
I am very fiscally prudent. I am however probably about a year of unemployment away from bankruptcy if I can't sell my condo for a reasonable price. Also, if unemployed, my expendable income drops to 0 overnight - no new car, no trips to Costco

wetkarma: p.s. I'm a genius

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 07:53:23 EST
Totally knocked this one out of the park. Feds cut rate by .75c.
Now to watch as shorts get creamed as the mom

wetkarma: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 07:37:14 EST

So, where exactly is all this gambling money going to come from? Perhaps foreigners, willing to exchange their pounds and Euros for wheel barrels full of dollars.
Well first, the best gambling stocks are not those that focus on the Ame

skeeter1: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 06:58:42 EST
Well, I got my 4th-quarter statement about my 403B plan, and it had a net loss of >$10K. The small portion that I have invested in international funds grew by ~$500. My bond fund was pretty much flat.
As the old expression goes, "don't pu

joshv: Re: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 06:50:47 EST
I am more than a little fascinated by your unbounded optimism. You do know that we are most likely heading into a recession? Your gaming stocks might be undervalued now - but call back in a year when unemployment has soared, and we've been revi

wetkarma: The Crash of 2008

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 02:18:55 EST
Panic? Sure - lots of that, but lets call it for what it is -- a crash. Even defensive sectors such as commodities are looking awfully weak. Virtually every sector is getting hammered -- financial and housing related? sure that makes sense...but commoditie