Politics

Warner Drops Out -- Get Ready for McCain v. Clinton

profwhat.

Posted to Politics on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:10:31 AM EST. RSS.

It's only 25 months until the 2008 presidential election, and we may have our slate already.  Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner removed himself from consideration for the Democratic nomination for President.  Warner's withdrawal leaves a small field of possible Democratic contenders for 2008:  Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, possibly Barack Obama, and, well, maybe John Kerry again.

Meanwhile, in the Republican race, John McCain has a strong lead, having picked up much of the Bush fundraising machine and worked his way around the country building allies by helping fundraising for other candidates.  Rudy Giuliani also leads in early polls, and Mitt Romney seems to have gone a ways to cornering the Christian conservatives.  Bill Frist, Sam Brownback, and Mike Huckabee are hovering in the background.

But who are we kidding?  The nomination is McCain's to lose, and unless the Democrats are swept up by a surge of 2004 nostalgia, it seems like Hillary Clinton will be on the other side of the ballot.  Is it time yet to start complaining about the lack of decent candidates to vote for?

Tags: Democrats, Election 2008 (all tags)

This story: 62 comments (6 from subqueue)
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1

Is it time yet to start complaining?

WMK.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:54:09 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

YES it is time to complain.

I don't understand how stupid the democrats can be?  Hillary FUCKING Clinton?!?!?

Hillary is red meat to the Limbaugh conservative 'base' and whatever hoped for vote suppression from even these assholes realizing that thier guys are really-for-true lying venal sleazy plutocrats who laugh at thier supporters (and maybe shouldn't recieve support) will be lost in a massive rush to the polls so they can vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton.  The GOP would be pleased as punch to run against Hillary - the enraged troglodyte vote would hit record levels and hail to the chief will play for McCain in 2 years (Satan himself could run against Hillary Clinton and the GOP 'base' would vote for him).  

Does Hillary even appeal strongly to the Democrat base?  Her hawkish Iraq position doesn't appeal to me.  Is she even progressive?  I just have a vision of a Hillary presidency being non-stop paralyzing GOP noise machine freakout 24-7 with no progress made on any progressive agenda (like healthcare, social security, education, taxation, and reversing much of the damage done by the Bushites misrule) due to the GOP digging thier heels in and refusing to cooperate at all (because they HATE her) and that strategy of sabotaging/paralysis will win them increased public approval while HIllary will just get bashed for being 'ineffectual'.  So in my mind, even if she wins - we all lose because she is so massively polarizing.

Wresting the reigns of power out of the hands of crazed plutocrats is step 1 in repairing this country and setting our feet back on a sane and sensible path, step 2 is actually passing legislation to reverse Bushite damage which will require the ability to get some measure of bi-partisan cooperation, step 3 is to hold onto power long enough to allow the healing effects to make a difference.  The GOP strategy (if they lose in 2008) would be to make sure Hillary achieves nothing so they can re-take control in 2012 (actually this will be thier strategy whenever a Dem takes office).

Obama and Edwards are lightweight pretty boys, if the presidential election truly is a beauty contest then they could win but shouldn't we be considering someone with strong resume for the most important job in the world?  I know GOP voters don't seem to give a damn about qualifications beyond a pedigree of obedience/membership to/in the plutocracy (and an ability to hoodwink fundies/joe-six-pack) but Dem voters 'should' be more thoughtful IMO.  Obama or Edwards is a decent choice for VP where they can presumably be 'seasoned' for future runs at the big chair, but it seems like a serious contender should have some reasonable level of experience in government.

Kerry or Gore, if they could some how shake off the 'he lost, he's a loser, he'll lose again' stigma then either of these guys have a resume that says they are qualified for the job.  McCain got shanked by the Bushites and he's back on the scene so with a decent PR effort maybe Kerry or Gore could take another stab at it.  My personal preference is Gore, but he seems unlikely to try which leaves Kerry.  Kerry is not a terrible choice but his plutocrat credentials make me suspect he'd be likely to go slow on promoting anything inconvenient to his peers (like national healthcare) but he might peel back some of the worst Bushite attacks on the constitution, make a few showy examples of curbing corporate welfare (certain to be cosmetic 'reform-lite'), probabbly a half-assed fix to Social Security, modest increases in Taxes (roll back on some Bushite plans with a few easter eggs/loopholes for the investor classes), modest increases in public education spending and phase out of the faith based initiatives,  and an Iraq 'solution' that wont satisfy anyone except GOP hawks who will gleefully blame him for every bad turn the scenario takes.

It seems like there is a lot of hard work ahead for whomever follows the Bushite disaster, maybe the USA will see National Healthcare by 2020 - or else devolve into a corporate slave state - or be welcoming our Chinese overlords ahead of schedule - or all of the above?  

"...when theft and high crime becomes obscenely obvious to even the blindest beer sucking idiot, it is always the Republicans who are in office." -- Joe Bageant

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Go to the states

profwhat.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 03:33:31 PM EST

4.00 (funny, astute)

Warner's dropout seems disappointing particularly because he was not part of the federal government wing of the Democratic party.  I don't get this:  Even though Democrats are very weak on the national stage (while being strong as all hell in the biggest states and cities), they keep fielding Senators and Vice Presidents as candidates.  This is like a corporation that keeps trying to promote the VP in charge of its least successful division as CEO.

It's even weirder when you consider how junior these people are.  Edwards served, what, one term as Senator?  No government service before that, and he's leading in the TNT poll?  Hillary at least will have been reelected by 2008 once, and I suppose she can claim some credit for time served in the White House.  

But come on; this is an uninspiring bunch.  Where's the gray hair, the years of experience, the wisdom forged by struggle and compromise, the proven track record, the gravitas and respect that comes from acclamation from both sides of the aisle?

Oh, that's John McCain.  Nevermind.

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

permazorch.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 12:41:28 PM EST

none

I agree across the board, WMK, but god, Kerry sticks in my craw, too. I say we press somebody into service, involuntarily.

----- The earth may fail, but we will quiver

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

Coelacanth.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 12:53:43 PM EST

none

I think it's an exaggeration to characterize Edwards and Obama as "lightweight pretty boys".  They have more relevant experience than most recent presidents.  Anyway, the key function of the President is to lead.  He can do that by picking a solid team, actually listening to them, and being an effective and inspiring communicator.  Plus, a long record of achievement is a liability in the campaign, since it yields sound bite material for opposition attack ads.

I don't think Hillary will be the nominee.  As you colorfully described, she is an extremely polarizing figure and simply cannot gain a majority of votes.  I'm a solid Democrat, and I don't even want to vote for her.

McCain has a lot of GOP enemies.  Don't be surprised if he gets shanked again.  The Repubs want a nominee that can be carefully shaped and shown off, without a solid record to attack.

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

coquito.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 01:07:54 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

I don't think Hillary will be the nominee.  As you colorfully described, she is an extremely polarizing figure and simply cannot gain a majority of votes.  I'm a solid Democrat, and I don't even want to vote for her.

I'm not sure how right your first sentiment is, but with you all the way on the rest of it. I first started hearing about Hillary being the nominee shortly after the last race, and I swear I only ever heard it discussed in right-wing circles. I'm loathe to believe in conspiracy theories, but seriously, I feel like the buzz on this was started on the right, not the left. I think she's an obviously unelectable candidate. There's enough liberals like us who don't like her, and there's plently of conservatives who would rather re-elect Bill Clinton for life than spend a nanosecond under Hillary. OK, that may be hyperbole. But seriously folks... She's the wife of a man the right went to great lengths to impeach. I don't see why anyone to the right of Janeane Garofalo would vote for her. I don't even think Bill would vote for her.

The only thing that scares me more is McCain on the Repub ticket. There's plenty of lefties who, imo, mistakenly believe he's some kind of Dem in Repubs clothing. Not that I think being a Republican is a reason not to vote for him, but I think his reputation as an independent leaves something to be desired. Better than Bush? Sure. But I don't think that's saying a whole lot. He has a real chance, I think, to sweep an election. Of course, if the party goes with Rudy instead...

Now with caps!

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

CaptainLiberal.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 02:38:10 PM EST

4.00

If you'd asked me last year to choose between McCain and Clinton, I would have easily picked McCain.  I don't agree with most of his fiscal policies or quite a few of his social ones, but until the last year at least saw him as a genuinely honest man, who was willing to tell his party to go screw when he held a differing opinion.  Between visiting with the evangelicals, and sucking up to the Republican overlords, it's just hard to take him seriously anymore.  I think what most people liked about McCain is that he appeared to be his own man, but apparently you can't do that and be the Republican candidate.

If the race comes down to McCain and Clinton at this point, I suspect I'll vote Socialist again, just like I did between Gore and Bush, with exactly the same effect -- nothing, because I live in the "winner-take-all" state of Texas who will almost certainly give all their electoral votes to whatever Republican troglodyte carries the day.

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

coquito.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 03:53:12 PM EST

none

Between visiting with the evangelicals, and sucking up to the Republican overlords, it's just hard to take him seriously anymore.  I think what most people liked about McCain is that he appeared to be his own man, but apparently you can't do that and be the Republican candidate.

My issue exactly.

Now with caps!

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

nmiguy.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 02:28:10 PM EST

none

Wow Coquito, your post is unduly hyperbolic.  

If Hillary's record as senator from New York is scrutinized, one would see a terrifically hard working woman.  Her track record as a politician has been solid.  Her stances have softened or shifted rightward at election times, but she is a proud democrat who does not have the support of her fellow democrats despite her tireless efforts in the Senate and her experience as first lady.  Democrats haev bought into teh right wing smearing of Hillary, which is more disturbing than anything else.  The GOP keeps winning because they have gotten into your heads.  

Would Hillary be a bad president?  I say no.  I think she would listen to the people and serve them nobly.  Do I agree with all her positions?  No. But I think she is competent, and I don't really buy that "she's a bitch" stuff.  That is just non-descript personal attacks.  Truly she is a polarizing figure, as much for her book "it takes a village" which defined an entire social ideology, as for her failed attempt to nationalize healthcare.  But Hillary is more than just a polarizing figure.  Perhaps she is not the best person for the job, but certainly she does not deserve to be treated the same by democrats and republicans, when all she has ever done is serve Americans.  

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

coquito.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 03:50:19 PM EST

none

Do I agree with all her positions?  No. But I think she is competent, and I don't really buy that "she's a bitch" stuff.

"Unduly hyperbolic".. I like that! :)
But seriously, it has nothing to do with thinking she's a b*tch, which I don't. In fact, I lived in NY when she was elected, I had no issues with that, I'm glad she's doing well. What I'm talking about is the chance that enough Americans would vote for her to make her president. As you said yourself, she's a "polarizing figure" -- I think that, given a.) the simple fact that she's Bill Clinton's wife, and b.) the simpler fact that it's hard to get all non-card carrying Republicans on your side, I don't think she can win. Problem "a." takes her out of the running as a crossover candidate and problem "b." just further shrinks the number of people who will vote for her.

Maybe she is the best person for the job. I would love to think that, were that so, she could be elected. But I'm not such an idealist that I'm going to delude myself into thinking she could get elected. Even if every card-carrying Dem votes for her, that's not going to do it, imo. She needs broader appeal, and in a race between her and McCain, I think she'd get slaughtered. Hell, they could run Dan Quayle and I still think she would lose. How's that for hyperbole? :D

Now with caps!

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

nmiguy.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:05:21 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

How about a ticket with Al Gore running with Hillary as his VP running mate?  Hillary does have appeal to many independent voters and swing voters, as she is a liberal who swings conservative at times.  Al Gore is riding high over rebuilding his image in recent years.  He would get massive support from the democratic base.

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

coquito.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 09:14:32 AM EST

none

I don't know. I feel though, that Hillary, if she's aiming for anything, is not aiming for VP.
As for Al... I liked Al. I liked him more with the beard and the movie and all that. I'm not sure he can come back after his defeat, but it would be nice. To be totally honest, my favorite candidate from recent years was Dean. Up until the scream, I liked his attitude and many of his ideas. He seemed like a hopeful idealist who was serious about changing the system for the better. That is, perhaps, why Obama has some baseline appeal for me. He has some of that "Golden Boy" sheen. Of course, that's all I know about him, so it's easy to project my own wishes on someone who's still something of a blank slate (I don't know much about his record in Illinois so far)(well,  he did co-author the Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act. I can get behind that.)

Now with caps!

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

rkanodia.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 03:10:14 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

Funny, I still liked Dean after the scream.  That whole issue was a tempest in a teapot, much ado about nothing, and so on and so forth.  A manufactured canard.  When I saw Barbara Walters trying to goad Mrs. Dean into calling Howard an abusive husband ON NATIONAL TV, I wanted to reach into the goddamn television and strangle that opportunistic, manipulative bitch.  The guy got excited at a campaign rally.  That's what rallies are for.  Everything after that was a hatchet job.

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

coquito.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 03:52:53 PM EST

none

I don't disagree. But the fact is the episode tainted him. Unfairly, imo, but it did. I think rule number one of being a good presidential candidate is probably to never ever ever act psychotic in public.

Now with caps!

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

nmiguy.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 09:33:40 AM EST

none

Obama has a lot of promise, and he has the gift of public speaking, he can be inspirational, but Obama doesn't seem ready for it.  I think he needs a few more years seasoning and experience to feel up to it.  I have a feeling he is not going to run for president, even if Democrats beg him to run.

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

coquito.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 10:04:34 AM EST

none

Not even if Oprah begs him to run? Hmmm?? ;)

Now with caps!

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Excelsior!

gerrymander.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 03:49:43 PM EST

none

And let's not forget how Gore defeated ManBearPig. We really dodged a bullet there.

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

nmiguy.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 09:38:27 AM EST

none

Okay I see your point.  She may have win-ability issues.  

But if I evaluate her performance in the senate, I see nothing that truly bothers me.  She has a work ethic, she is not a "status quo" type, she has stood up for unpopular opinions even against rank and file democrats, and is willing to work in a bi-partisan way.  As a president, I feel she would serve the nation rather than rule it.  As the junior Senator from New York for only a few years, she has already been far more affective than John Kerry has for well over 2 decades.  

Hey New York, I'll trade you John Kerry for Hillary Clinton, straight up.  Okay, I'll throw in a Starbucks Latte and Theresa Heinz too.  

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

CaptainLiberal.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 09:57:39 AM EST

5.00 (astute, interesting, astute)

I'd feel less inclined to dislike Hillary if she quit engaging in ridiculous ranting about the dangers of videogames.  Since when did the Democrats become the party of people who told us what we can and can't watch and play?  More to the point, I doubt Hillary gives a rat's ass about videogames, but rather sees it as a nice, juicy, middle-of-the-road issue to prove she's not a liberal.  The current frenzy is remarkably reminiscent of the Tipper Gore-led fiasco of the P.M.R.C. and every bit as stupid.

Since I'm convinced that Hillary isn't so stupid that she actually believes playing a videogame is going to turn people into killers (a hard propostion to sell since the murder rates have been consistently down since video game consoles were intorduced into American homes in the 80's), then one must assume that she's cynically trashing a subculture just to get over on the White House.  That doesn't exactly encourage me to vote for the lady.

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 02:03:21 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

Since when did the Democrats become the party of people who told us what we can and can't watch and play?
Since Tipper Gore caught darling Nikki masturbating with a magazine.

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

dzetetes.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 11:18:03 PM EST

4.75 (brilliant, funny, informative)

murder rates have been consistently down since video game consoles were intorduced into American homes in the 80's

Not surprising.  My knife technique has gone to hell since I got carpal tunnel syndrome from playing PS2.

In regione caecorum, rex est luscus.

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

coquito.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 10:07:24 AM EST

none

But if I evaluate her performance in the senate, I see nothing that truly bothers me.

And I wish to God (in my own way) that people chose their elected officials that way. I think it would be a very different government. Of course, I can't complain: lately, I more often agree with the views expressed by Green Party candidates than by Dems, but I don't (usually) vote for them.

Now with caps!

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

T Slothrop.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 02:56:37 PM EST

5.00 (brilliant)


I think it's an exaggeration to characterize Edwards and Obama as "lightweight pretty boys".  They have more relevant experience than most recent presidents.

Whoa there. What this "they" shit, kemosabe?

I don't really know enough about Obama to have an informed opinion, but as a center-left resident of North Carolina - the state that John Edwards pretended to represent in the Senate for a bit while he took his act on the road in '04 - I have to say that John Edwards doesn't even qualify as a "lightweight." "Flyweight", maybe.

Edwards was basically a glorified ambulance chaser with no political experience when he managed to get the state party's nod to run for Senate. He managed to pull this off largely because the state Democratic aparatchiks felt they had no chance of winning the seat anyway, so why not give a telegenic fresh face a shot?

Edwards has absolutely zero experience doing anything that remotely resembles government. True, the same could be said about Dubya in 2000. But look how well that turned out.

{Insert amusing quotation here}

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Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

Coelacanth.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 05:59:16 AM EST

none

I don't have firsthand knowledge of Edwards, so I'll take your word for it.  But he talks a good game, and if he was paying attention at all in the Senate, he's already more qualified than Bush was (or Giuliani or Romney are).  I'm not really a big fan, but he's a plausible candidate.

I'm betting the eventual Democratic candidate isn't even listed in the poll.  At least, I hope so...

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Several Points

uncarved block.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 01:11:36 PM EST

none

   As to how dumb the Democrats are, keep in mind that presidential candidates select themselves, not the other way around, as Warner dropping out shows well. Do you think Republicans are thrilled that Frist and McCain are the top choices on their side of the aisle? Damn straight they aren't. Giuliani is getting some early buzz, but I strongly believe there's at least one scandal from his New York days waiting to take him out-- and not the adultery, or the ensuing messy divorce. Mitt Romney doesn't have a big national profile, which is a strength and a weakness. Hillary might be able to spend enough to define Romney for voters before his campaign even gets underway-- hell, they might even pull a Gray Davis move and pick him as the opposition. Until the recount, the 2000 election was considered a snoozefest of massive proportions- Gush vs Bore, in Harry Schearer's memorable phrase- so this is hardly a new trend.
   Will Hillary bring out the rabid conservative base? Well, will that be enough? Rove pursued that strategy, and even against a candidate as bad as Kerry, was only able to squeak by with a couple points in Ohio for the narrowest re-election numbers since Woodrow Wilson. Hillary trounces Frist in the center; McCain's a bit more of a player, but you have to wonder how he'll play with the press as a front runner rather than an exciting runner up. Candor is not always a virtue on the campaign trail.
   Does she have a chance? Ironically, she'll be in much the same position Bush was in during the 2000 campaign; the base wasn't that excited about the Shrub, but his calling card was, "I can win." After the last eight years, that might be enough for Dems to hold their noses and pull the levers. She'll get attacked from the left, sure, but both sides have that problem (many conservatives loathe McCain, apparently), and I'd call it a wash right now.
   Would a HRC win lead to stagnation? Well, I suspect the first thing conservatives will start shrieking for will be a repeal of the Executive powers they were so willing to grant W: expect Reagan's line about, "I love my country, but fear my government", AWOL since Bush/43 took office, to make a comeback among conservative bloggers and pundits in a big way. Indeed, if you want things like the Patriot Act repealed, Hillary winning might be the best (only?) way to bring this about, as it will provide cover for Republican legislators to vote against the bills without losing any support back home.
   I'm not even sure it would be that bad from the media side. Newt will be rewarded with a nice cabinet post for sucking up to her for so long Whether this is a good thing is an open question, but it would provide partisan cover. HRC's been working on Rupert Murdoch for a while, and the Fox coverage might be a tad better as a result, if she's got a marker to call in. The talk radio shows will all over her, but then these broadcasts are almost entirely based on bashing "liberals" in the first place, so I can't see much change on that front. Likewise in the print media.
   Would Hillary be a good president? Hell, I don't know. The agenda of just about every president is usually DOA after the first year anyway, and after that, as Ambrose Bierce noted, circumstances will drive the country anyway. Speaking of death, I'm not even sure she'd make it to a 2012 reelection-- by 2008, it will be about 25 years since someone took a serious shot at a US president, and as has been noted, Hillary brings out the worst in certain folks. Tin foil hat material, maybe, but you really have to wonder what the chances are.
   Is this an endorsement? Well, that depends on what happens next month. If Dems manage to hit the inside straight and take back both chambers, then no-- I'm serious about divided government being a good thing. (And if a Democratic majority like that didn't kill the worst parts of the Patriot Act, then why should I expect HRC to do so?) But the deck is stacked against Dems pretty well, and a full sweep seems unlikely, no matter what Charlie Cook thinks he senses.
   Hell, this might all be moot anyway, as it's unclear that she's even running. A lot of folks who are talking about another Clinton in the White House are from the other party, and have been using it as a worst case scenario to raise money and encourage party discipline. If she doesn't run, the biggest loser might be Republican candidates, who will suddenly have to give conservatives a reason to vote for them and not simply against the spectre on the other side . . .

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

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Re: Several Points

Thalia.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 01:19:02 PM EST

5.00 (astute, brilliant)

I don't know.  McCain seems to have no ethics, despite his reputation as a stand-up guy.  In the end, he always comes out swinging for the Republican side.  A law that basically allows torture to be randomly redefined by the president?  It's a win, based on "negotiation by the White House."  North Korea getting nukes?  It's "Clinton's fault."  I think the Republicans are pleased as punch at McCain, because he has a great reputation in the press, and has a good chance of attracting the undecided votes.  Let's be realistic, there is a base for both parties that will vote for anything under the ticket of Republican/Democrat.  But the undecided voters are the big question.  And for some obscure reason the media likes to perpetuate the image that McCain is a centrist, despite his voting record & public behavior.

Thalia

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Re: Several Points

nmiguy.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 02:49:26 PM EST

2.00

McCain seems to have no ethics, despite his reputation as a stand-up guy.

Wow what a dirty shot.  McCain has lots of ethics.  Where do you come up with that salvo?  McCain's fight against torture seems to be ethical.  His fight to clean up the world of professional boxing seems ethical.  His fight for Campaign Finance reform seems ethical.  This is a man who fights for ethical ideas.  His principled vote against the Telecommunications act of 1996 showed him on principle voting against a big corporate payoff, and he was the only republican senator to vote against it.  He is a pro-life anti-pork who is also environmentally friendly.  

Thalia, you saying that McCain lacks ethics is an opinion that does not seem to match the records.  His stances on issues were entirely based upon ethics.  Here is is voting record.

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Re: Several Points

Thalia.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 05:19:54 PM EST

4.75

So his voting record is in 100% agreement with the Republicans, pretty much.  I'm supposed to get principle from THIS?  

How about his vote against Habeas Corpus (which last I checked can only be suspended for invasion, or threat to the existence of the Republic, neither of which is currently the case, unless you count Bush & Cronies to be a threat to the Republic)?    How about his vote for torture?  You think that was a principled vote?  Seriously?  You think his blaming the Korean nukes on Clinton was a principled move too?  How about his support of Bush during 2004?  Principles?  His speeches at Liberty University (run by Falwell, whom McCain called an "agent of intolerance"  back in 2000).  Principles?  Stating that "the integrity and letter and spirit of the Geneva Conventions have been preserved" while voting on a bill that states that the President gets to define the scope of the Geneva convention & that detainees cannot appeal to it.  Principles?  Giving a retroactive, nine-year immunity to U.S. officials who authorized, ordered, or committed acts of torture and abuse, and permitted the use of statements obtained through torture to be used in military tribunals so long as the abuse took place by December 30, 2005.  Principles?

I'm not seeing it.  Maybe you can point out which principles these listed actions support.  Other than the principle that we're willing to give up much in order to be considered a good Presidential candidate.

I actually lost all respect for him when he snuggled up to Bush, after Bush basically won a primary by telling voters that he had had an interracial relationship and had a black daughter.  His reconcilliation with Falwell (famous for blaming feminists and gays for 9/11) did not help matters.

Thalia

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Re: Several Points

nmiguy.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:14:44 AM EST

4.00 (astute)

Thalia I never said McCain was perfect, he is a long time Senator and has to compromise to get things done, he is an active member of representation, and he cares about many issues very deeply.  He has served our country in many ways, and was a prisoner of war who was tortured.  I think the points you bring up are things you can rightly question, but to say he has no ethics at all is wrong and mean spirited.  John McCain has not voted 100% with his party, which is why he has made many republican enemies.  As I noted he was the sole republican dissenter in the telecom bill in 1996.  As for the torture matters above, McCain does not support torture.  The Geneva Conventions and the Bush administration have been at odds, Bush was basically forced to end torture, but in order to expedite and force Bush's hand, some compromises were met.  I agree with you that compromising on such a matter seems "unprincipled", but it is not the defining legislation of John McCain's career.  The McCain-Feingold bill is a marvel of bipartisan reform.  

I understand and respect that you do not like him, and for good reasons.  But I do disagree with your assertion that he has no ethics at all.

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Re: Several Points

marduk.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:45:07 AM EST

4.50

As for the torture matters above, McCain does not support torture.  The Geneva Conventions and the Bush administration have been at odds, Bush was basically forced to end torture...

No, this is not true. THAT's why McCain is, well, I won't use the term 'unethical' but he sold out his supposed anti-torture ideals. Before the bill: "We don't torture" but Bush decides what is torture and what isn't. After: "We don't torture" but Bush decides what is torture and what isn't.

tnt needs to track moderation. stats page!

51

^ 34

Re: Several Points

Thalia.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:45:51 PM EST

4.33 (astute)

I'm sorry but I believe he gave up his ethics (from 1996 when he still had some) in 2000 when he realized he lost the presidential candidacy.  Since then his actions have not reflected ethics.  And ESPECIALLY because he has been the victim of torture, his acquiescence to that horrible torture & removal of habeas corpus bill was completely unacceptable.  

I'm not saying McCain never had ethics, just that he no longer does.  The fact that you have to point back 10 years to see where he stood up to the Republicans is a pretty strong indication of what I'm talking about.  Like when Bush Sr. embraced Reagan's policies for the opportunity of becoming president later, McCain has embraced Falwell, Bush & their lack of ethics.

Thalia

55

^ 34

The Man I wanted to like

permazorch.

Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 04:26:35 PM EST

none

McCain. I wanted to go out for him. He seemed his own man until he gave up the election in 2000, until he endorsed Prez Bush in 2004, until he sold out on the torture bill.

Fuck McCain.

----- The earth may fail, but we will quiver

56

^ 55

Re: The Man I wanted to like

WMK.

Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 08:25:56 PM EST

4.00

AMEN - Fuck McCain

Once upon a time (1990-1993) I would see McCain address Arizona voters on Az TV and think ' gee, for a Republican agent of pure evil - this guy seems to have SOME ethics and decent ideas, he aint so bad' (had I remained in Az I might have even voted for him) ... then the Keating scandal happened, and then 2000 happened, then the horrifying spectacle of a man who personally knows in excrutiating detail what torture is and voting for it anyway happened... the man lost his soul somewhere along the way.

"...when theft and high crime becomes obscenely obvious to even the blindest beer sucking idiot, it is always the Republicans who are in office." -- Joe Bageant

11

^ 5

Re: Several Points

CaptainLiberal.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 02:41:45 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

It's hard to believe anyone's taking a Romney run seriously.  The man's a Mormon.  Even the lunatic Christian fringe finds Mormons to be weird and strange, when they aren't busy condemning them to hell.  Since the vast majority of America finds the Mormons at least as inexplicable as the Scientologists, I just don't see him making it past the primary stage.

22

^ 11

Re: Several Points

CaptainLiberal.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 05:43:32 PM EST

none

I'd like to point out that I personally have no problems with Mormons.  Heck, I married into a family full of them, even though my wife is an atheist like myself.  Some of the nicest people I've ever met.

Personally, I tend to lump all the believers in a magical Daddy into the same camp, which is that their beliefs sound fundamentally silly except to those raised in the same or similar faith.  Mormon belief in spirit children and eternal sealing in the Temple don't sound fundamentally stranger to me than the Christian belief that they (symbolically or otherwise) eat the flesh and drink the blood of their savior.

Mitt's Mormonism isn't a problem for me, but I have a hard time believing that a country who was concerned about a Catholic President a single generation ago is going to suddenly be okay with a guy who believes Jesus came to the Native Americans.

27

^ 11

That's The Culture War Question

uncarved block.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:33:53 PM EST

none

   Are American Christians so concerned about the "secular left" that it will overlook Romney's faith? Or will the old fractures reappear in 2008? It should be clear early in the primary process whether Romney is getting the cold shoulder or not.
   From my little corner of the world (at a used book store), I'd have to agree with you. Laake's Secret Ceremonies remains a popular book, and copies are hard to come by-- usually a sign folks are either passing the book to friends, or keeping it to re-read. And even among the non-religious, being known as the folks who knock on your door to give you literature you don't want is hardly a fast track to popularity.
   OTOH, the RNC has a pretty good machine in operation, and if the party leadership decides Romney is their guy, I'm not sure how much dissent will make its way into the mainstream media. Conservative pundits will certainly be ready and willing to turn Democratic attacks into a sign of religious intolerance, though how this would play at the grass roots is anyone's guess.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

31

^ 27

Re: That's The Culture War Question

CaptainLiberal.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 07:30:29 AM EST

none

From the heart of the Bible Belt, I can tell you that the local Southern Baptists would probably rather have Hillary in charge than a Mormon.  My wife grew up around here, and frequently got told by her Baptist friends that she was going to hell, that she was a member of a cult, etc.  The Baptists don't just hate the Catholics, apparently.

20

^ 5

One 'harumph' for you - sidebar

pattonbt.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 04:45:37 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

I just wanted to echo something you brought up which was about repealing all the executive powers that have been granted to Bush so far if a Democrat is elected President.

I have been thinking about that one for a while and I think you raise an interesting topic and point.  Maybe just getting any Democrat in the office will be enough to get the job done - Hillary or not.  

Ive always wondered why the right is so gung ho about these laws knowing, that at some point in time in the future, a Democrat will be in office and able to wield these powers.  They cant be asinine enough to believe that republicans will be in power forever (no matter how bat shit insane they are and no matter how hard they are working to achieve it).  Can you imagine what the crazy loyalists and mouthpieces of the republican party will do if a Democrat has these powers?

A Democratic president repealing these laws would be a win-win-win -

1 - A win for a Democratic president - repealing laws despised by their base.  A big easy safe laudable win.  Good moral issue.

2 - A win for the republicans - almost on two fronts.  One, allowing the frothing fear mongerers to whip up the crazy base and get them motivated.  But more subtly, two, allowing the saner part of the republican party (which does exist) to get some cover for past mistakes, restore some of their rightfully tarnished moral authority of their 'yes men' actions of the last eight years and maybe cut off at the knees the hyper crazy part of the party and take it in a new direction.

3 - And a win for the public - getting truly repugnant and unconstitutional laws off the books and restoring at least some semblance of 'rights', no matter how hollow, back into the governing process.

In any case, I think the presidential adds for the next election will definitely touch on these issues and it will be interesting to see how it is handled by all.

7

^ 1

Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

nmiguy.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 02:10:47 PM EST

none

Wow, it is hard to see Hilary as having a fighting chance if her base already is ceding to what the expected GOP attack will be.  

I think of it as thus, Hillary represents a throwback to the Bill Clinton days of prosperity, plus 8 years of George W Bush to see the difference.  If Hillary wins, she would have some wisdom to refer to.  

And at this point Hilary stands a chance to win.  True those that dislike Hilary hate her with a passion.  She is a polarizing figure.  But we have also seen that our current president is very polarizing as well.  

I mean you have been dismissive of all likely candidates.

Obama and Edwards are lightweight pretty boys

Kerry or Gore, if they could some how shake off the 'he lost, he's a loser, he'll lose again' stigma

Hillary is red meat to the Limbaugh conservative 'base'

All the likely democrat candidates are all losers, pretty boys or red meat.  You don't have much faith in your party at fielding a good viable candidate.  Let's look at the current state of affairs.  The GOP is reeling.  Imploding.  Nancy Pelosi shows fire and leadership.  Dean is unafraid and aggressive.  This is just starting to get stronger.  When the Democrats win both the House and the Senate, they will be riding high, they will emasculate the Bush administration.  Being associated with the Neo-cons will be considered as dirty as being labelled a "liberal", and if Hillaryis teh candidate with the most name recognition, the Democrats will ride that beast right back into the white house.  

She may not be your ideal candidate, but she has as good a chance (perhaps even a better chance) than most others.  You can stop being afraid of Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter, they have descened into self parody, and the rank and file American is left with a sour taste in their mouths over the last 8 years.  

19

^ 7

Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

WMK.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 04:30:53 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

Maybe I was harsh and dismissive:

Hillary Clinton: the reason she has name recognition is because she was steadily villified in the right wing press as first lady and targeted by GOP special investigatory witchhunts.  Nancy Reagan had Mojo Nixon as a critic ('I aint gonna piss in no jar' is a catchy tune), Hillary Clinton had an army of pundits, gossips, wingnut whackjobs, secretive plutocrats, and numerous GOP Senators and Congressmen howling for her blood.  I was filled with a sense of vindication when she won her seat as a NY Senator and we said goodbye to that disgusting worm, Senator Pothole (I know it was Schumer vs D'amato and Clinton vs Lazio, I prefer to conflate the 2 races into a greater victory over evil).  My preference is to see her elected to her senate seat again and again, IMO she does a good job there for NY and the USA and can continue to do her best work there (providing she gets comitte appointments).  NY is blue and friendly to HIllary, the nation as a whole is not.  I am not hostile to Hillary Clinton (she'll get my vote every time) I am hostile to the Democratic Party trying to ram her down red state Americas throat, I think that is a stupid idea.

Obama: a very smart, determined guy and I look forward to seeing what he does in the US Senate.  In a world without racial prejudice and knee-jerk condemnation of democrats as agents of global communism and servants of satan, Obama's articulate intelligence would be allowed to clearly announce his fitness as a candidate to lead a society based on egalitarian ideals of justice and meritocracy.  We don't live in that world and he is a Black freshman Senator from Illinois who needs to create a name for himself before he can hope to win over 'moderate' red staters in a presidential bid. Or like Hillary in NY, Obama could serve his constituents to the best of his ability by getting re-elected to the Senate repeatedly.

John Edwards: good looking guy huh?  Yes he has some experience in government but not very much.  He can speak convincingly but unfortunately as was mentioned elsewhere in this thread, he doesn't give that impression of 'gravitas' and so has to find a way of getting it.  I don't know how, but he might try winning a Senate race or maybe become a State Governor before taking a stab at the top of a presidential ticket.

Kerry: the guy blew 2004 by holding back and being mild (not savaging the swift boat liars) - doing some kind of 'appeal to the moderate voters' dance that was totally wrong.  I saw him a few nights back and he was practically throwing punches, he looked & sounded great - like he'd been hanging out with Howard Dean.   The problem is if he takes another run at the presidency he will have to scrape off the stink of his previous failure which will be what the opposition will tar him with endlessly while simultaneously punching the correct buttons on the issues that truly matter to enough Americans to win.  The all uphill and starting from the bottom of a hole nature of the fight is daunting.

Gore: I still think he'd make a great president - or high level cabinet staffer - basically I think the guy has a lot left in him to serve his country with in whatever capacity he wants to.  It amazes me how the cartoonish, dishonest, media-complicit smear job in 2000 (combined with questionable election results, & supreme court 'deciding') convinced enough people to honestly vote for a catastrophic fuck-up like Bush or sanctimonious Naderite 'they're all the same, it makes no difference' protest voting.  'He's too boring' ,'he invented the internet'  giggle, 'lockbox! ridiculous!' har-dee-har!, 'Liar liar pants on FIRE! you did use the office telephone!' tee-hee (others we're 'he's working for the chinese', 'he'll destroy the economy and make us hug trees' - whatever) people were entirely credulous towards petty personal attacks and distortions until that was all that was being reported?  That seems especially surreal now that death, chaos, global instability, nuclear threats, constitutional crisis, and  class war spiral out of control after 6 years of Bushite misrule.  At least Bush isn't 'too boring' to be president huh?

So all the people I may have seemed to dismiss have thier problems, Pelosi and Dean are great where they are - so are Hillary and Obama.  Edwards needs to get back in the game if he really wants to play (get a Senate seat).  Kerry might be able to do it if his ego is big enough and he can make sure he stays away from any advisors who tell him to act like he's too dignified to shoot back when the slimy GOP operatives try to bushwhack him.  Gore would have to expand his recent name recognition to mean more than 'Mr. Global Warming' but he could if he starts working news cycles now.  Maybe a qualified someone new will step into the spotlight.  

 

"...when theft and high crime becomes obscenely obvious to even the blindest beer sucking idiot, it is always the Republicans who are in office." -- Joe Bageant

32

^ 19

Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

nmiguy.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:02:52 AM EST

none

I am glad to see you expound a bit more about these individuals, I think your take on them is interesting.

As for Al Gore, I never liked him, until rather recently.  My take on him was that he never had a real grasp on reality, he is a political creature who appears clumsy and often off balance.  But with his global warming issue, he has crafted a unique identity and has earned my respect because he is crusading for an issue he cares passionately about.  When Al Gore is passionate and sincere, it shows through.  Would he make a good president?  Well not on all issues, but after the years of George W Bush, he can do no worse.  It would be interesting to see if he runs, in the election against Bush it was such a narrow margin, I think if he were to run again, he would win.  He is probably the best candidate the Democrats could have, in terms of being able to win.  

12

^ 7

Re: Is it time yet to start complaining?

CaptainLiberal.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 02:46:05 PM EST

3.00 (funny)

Hillary is polarizing in exactly the wrong way.  If she wins the primary you'll see low voter turnout on the Democrat side and super-high turnout on the Republican side.  The difference between Hillary and Shrub in this context is that at least the Republicans liked Shrub.  When not even the Democrats can stomach her, what do you think her chances are in a poll that includes Democrats, Independents, and Republicans?  And winning the primary doesn't mean the Dems support her, it just means she's better than the rest of the middling fare.

Speaking of self-parody, could you please begin spelling "teh" correctly?  Not only is the joke very over, but it makes my eyes bleed everytime I see it.

10

If History Holds

uncarved block.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 02:39:55 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

then the chances are pretty good the candidates in 2008 will not be two people in the lead today, since there are no incumbents. 25 months out in 1992, Bill Clinton was far from the top name, and likewise with W in the 2000 campaign-- Republicans as well as Democrats openly wondered if the family name was the only reason he was running, IIRC, and his early efforts on the trail only encouraged this kind of talk. (Dole was a presumptive front runner in 1996, but then it's unclear how many Republicans thought Clinton was beatable.) With that as a start, let's consider the field.
    Al Gore. A run in 2008 would mark the 20th anniversary of his first stab at the Oval Office, and his fourth attempt overall. Is he egotistical enough to think he's got a shot? I don't think so, and he seems pretty well over the presidential flu bug.
   John Kerry, OTOH, may be in full fever with that disease. The list of men who have lost bids only to win the presidency later has some big names: Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George HW Bush. All Republicans, though-- maybe there are no second chances for Democrats. Guess we'll find out next year. Kerry's main strength will be experience, and perhaps a sense among Democrats that he didn't get a fair shake from them in 2004. Maybe. His weakness will be obvious; he's a Senator, and four more years of votes can only provide more ammunition for Republicans.
   John Edwards. I may be alone, but I believe his chances for the presidency were killed by Jon Stewart, when he quipped that Edwards, "didn't have the gravitas for an appearance on Cold Pizza." Expect to see that clip, a lot, if it looks as if he's getting any traction. YMMV.
   Rudy Giuliani. Can a Republican who's had an affair and wants to reach across the aisle win the Republican nomination? (Scroll all the way to the bottom for the main point.) I think Rudy's got enough venom in him to learn, but if the base wants red meat, he may not be the man able to pull it off. Still, who's going to beat him?
   Bill Frist? Senator, and a dull one at that. No chance.
   Mitt Romney? More likely, but if the nomination becomes a fight between local politicians seeking a national stage, I think you have to give the tip to Giuliani. (If it's about "morals" and "character", Romney wins going away.) The biggest Achilles heel, checking out his Wiki entry, would have to be foreign policy; any Democrat running against him would have a serious leg up, even Edwards. Reconciling the "security is everything" meme with a Romney nomination would be a seriously tough sell for the RNC.
   George Allen? A Senator, though he seems to have more character than Frist. A bit too much character, perhaps . . .
   So, all that said, are you ready for the Giuliani vs Kerry campaign of 2008? Personally, my first reaction is that it would be the kind of contest political hacks would love, even if nobody else did. The debates would be excruciating, if far more meaty than anything Bush ever offered. How would Rudy use the Swift Boat Veterans ammunition, assuming it still had power? How would social conservatives react when neither candidate supported their views? (Apparently they're already taking steps to keep this from ever happening.) How would having two rather unappealing candidates affect races for the House and Senate?
   A rather glorious mess. I almost hope it happens, having thought about if for a couple minutes :)

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

13

^ 10

Re: If History Holds

CaptainLiberal.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 02:49:03 PM EST

none

I'm going to reanimate Barbara Jordan and Ann Richards, for the All-Gal Presidential ticket.  Can we elect dead people?  Is there actually a law against electing a dead president?

24

^ 13

Re: If History Holds

MayorBob.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:45:28 PM EST

3.00 (obnoxious)

"Can we elect dead people?  Is there actually a law against electing a dead president?"
Apparently not.  Since 2001, we've had a braindead president and his Veep is a member of the undead.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

57

^ 24

Re: If History Holds

humorlesscretin.

Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 12:16:20 PM EST

none

Hey, now.  Hyphenated-Americans can hold office, even Undead-Americans.  If we didn't have Braindead-Americans to hold office, we'd have a lot of vacancies.

Humorless. Cretinous. What'd you expect?

43

Let's see what happens in a few weeks

tomc.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 01:43:01 PM EST

3.00

I think that the results this November will help determine who will run in '08.  

If the Dems fail to take the House or the Senate, will that give Hillary a better chance in '08?

If the Dems TAKE both House and Senate, will that make voters think about a moderate Republican rather than a Democrat for the White House?  

Will we have learned that the best government happens when Congress and the executive are not controlled by the same party?

44

^ 43

Re: Let's see what happens in a few weeks

coquito.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 02:27:33 PM EST

none

Just out of curiosity, can anyone tell me when the last time was that Congress and the executive were both controlled by Democrats? What kind of trouble did we get ourselves into then? (I'm not being rhetorical, I'm honestly curious.)

Now with caps!

45

^ 44

Re: Let's see what happens in a few weeks

profwhat.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 02:44:35 PM EST

none

1993 to 1995.  Hillarycare, tax increases, surgeon generals talking about masturbation, "don't ask, don't tell," the breakup of Nirvana, Rwandan genocide, the premier of "Friends."  It was a dark era.

46

^ 45

Re: Let's see what happens in a few weeks

coquito.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 03:09:00 PM EST

4.00 (funny)

LOL.. OK...

>Hillarycare

According to Wikipedia, the "Clinton health care plan" never came to be, at least in part because "Democrats, instead of uniting behind the President's original proposal, offered a number of competing plans of their own."

>tax increases

Didn't we also pay down the deficit back then?

>surgeon generals talking about masturbation,

That was awesome.

> "don't ask, don't tell,"

Sounds like most people now seemingly agree that was dumb. I would argue it's a step. Also, I could be wrong, but wasn't that partly an attempt to appease the right? Again from Wikipedia "It was introduced as a compromise measure in 1993 by President Bill Clinton who, while campaigning for the Presidency had promised to allow all citizens regardless of sexual orientation to serve openly in the military... The actual policy was crafted by Colin Powell and has been maintained by Clinton's successor, George W. Bush."
"Social conservative interest groups successfully flooded the Congressional phone lines with oppositions to lifting the ban, and for his part, President Clinton soon backed off on his campaign promise to lift the ban on gays in the armed forces."

>the breakup of Nirvana

That sucked too. But I like the Foo Fighters, so it wasn't all bad. Kurt was gonna die anyway.

>Rwandan genocide

That really sucks. So does Darfur though.

>the premier of "Friends."

Oooh... kinda like crack, but for white people. It was bad, but kinda "oh so good".

>It was a dark era.

Yeah, sheez! Glad that's over!

Now with caps!

50

^ 46

Re: Let's see what happens in a few weeks

gerrymander.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 04:01:42 PM EST

none

Didn't we also pay down the deficit back then?

Pay down, no. Decrease, yes. (The US didn't really pay down the deficit until it turned a profit, in 1998.)

52

^ 50

Re: Let's see what happens in a few weeks

coquito.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:32:18 PM EST

none

OK, I think I see. I may have misunderstood the meaning of "pay down." Actually, no I take that back, I think you mean the difference between the Deficit, which decreased for a few years, until in 1998 we had a Surplus instead of a Deficit and we were able to pay down the National Debt. Right?

Now with caps!

23

Tradition?

Thalia.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 05:46:52 PM EST

none

So the last few presidents have been governors of Middle American states, prior to their runs.  Actually, that position was fairly common among successful presidential candidates.  So the question is, which of these folks should make a run for it?

Thalia

26

^ 23

Re: Tradition?

LastResort.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:33:49 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

If it comes down to McCain vs. Clinton, I'll take a Hydrochloric Acid enema for $100, Alex.

25

^ 23

Bill Richardson

uncarved block.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:10:50 PM EST

none

   In fact, I there's plenty of open speculation he's done little to discourage. A Democrat who has won big in a (more or less) red state?  Could be a good combination. Think I picked him as a long shot some months ago, as a matter of fact.
   Does he have a shot? Hard to say. He's made some noise about cracking down on illegal immigration, but so far the Right (at a quick glance) isn't buying it. He's got plenty of international experience, but I'm not sure it's enough to overcome his tenure at the Energy Department. And if there's been some kind of economic "New Mexico miracle", I haven't heard about it.
   And then there's the race matter. Is the nation ready for a Hispanic presidential candidate? Are Democrats? I dunno. It would certainly seem likely to lead to some of the nastiest politics of our generation. Probably best to leave it at that.
   On a guess, I can't see Richardson going far. According to Wiki he recently vetoed some eminent domain legislation in NM, and I believe that's the next hot button issue Republicans are going to bring into the public arena. If the issue polls at all well with centrist voters, Richardson is toast.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

28

^ 23

The last few?

MayorBob.

Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 10:43:55 PM EST

none

It's almost a given that whomever ends up winning will either be out of government, a governor, or a sitting vice president.  If Cheney remains as Veep through the end of Bush's term, I gotta believe he'll not run in 2008.  But, let's review where those elected president over the last 50 years came from:

2000 - George Bush, governor of Texas with no Washington experience.
1992 - Bill Clinton, governor of Arkansas with no Washington experience.
1988 - George Herbert Walker Bush, sitting Veep with a ton of Washington experience.
1980 - Ronald Reagan, governor of California with no Washington experience.
1976 - Jimmy Carter, governor of Georgia with no Washington experience.
1968 - Richard Nixon, out of government and away from Washington for eight years.  He had served as a US Representative and Senator from California before signing on as Eisenhower's running mate.
1964 - Lyndon Johnson, reelected but he succeeded John F. Kennedy upon JFK's assassination.  He probably set the gold standard as a president who got elected with serious Washington connections and experience.
1960 - John F. Kennedy, the last guy to run and be elected president straight from the US Senate.
1952 - Dwight David Eisenhower, military hero of WWII and President of Columbia University when he got elected.  Not much Washington experience here.

So, most of those who got elected president the first time did so without either any Washington experience or any recent Washington experience.  Which is probably predictable because any Senator or Representative running for president in the primaries suffers the political death of a thousand cuts by having the faithful told that he is part of the problem, not part of any solution.

The bottom line looks like, if the historical trend holds true, the Republican candidate won't be McCain, who will remain a sitting US Senator and the Democratic candidate won't be Joe Biden who will keep his Senate seat.  I'm wondering about a few Democrats on that list, however.  Bill Richardson of New Mexico would absolutely love to become president and he's as multi-cultural as they come -- he's part Hispanic.  Corzine of New Jersey is another possibility as he more or less got roped into becoming governor of New Jersey because the Democratic Party needed someone to rescue it from the effect of the McGreevey fiasco.  Corzine also has another thing going for him in that he has shown no reticence about dipping into the family checking account to pay for all his elective runs in the past.

 

Illegitimi non carborundum.

29

Too Soon!

rombuu.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 01:58:37 AM EST

none

Just for shits and giggles, can anyone find anything from October of 2002 suggesting Kerry would be the Democratic nominee?  I'd suggest whoever looks like the front runner now probably is a lock not to be the person actually nominated.

36

Re: Warner Drops Out -- Get Ready for McCain v. Cl

coquito.

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 09:08:27 AM EST

none

This may be of interest in this discussion: Barack Obama's new book, "The Audacity of Hope," as reviewed by the New York Times.

He assails President Bush for waging an unnecessary and misguided war in Iraq and for promoting an "Ownership Society" that "magnifies the uneven risks and rewards of today's winner-take-all economy." Yet he also takes the Democrats to task for becoming "the party of reaction": "In reaction to a war that is ill-conceived, we appear suspicious of all military action. In reaction to those who proclaim the market can cure all ills, we resist efforts to use market principles to tackle pressing problems. In reaction to religious overreach, we equate tolerance with secularism and forfeit the moral language that would help infuse our policies with a larger meaning. We lose elections and hope for the courts to foil Republican plans. We lose the courts and wait for a White House scandal.

P.S. -- I can't believe Obama's name isn't cleared by the spellchecker.

Now with caps!

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