I don't need the bells and whistles, so I'm more than willing to wait until a system is "on its way out" to buy in - that way the system and games are both considerably cheaper. I got a Dreamcast a few months before Sega quite making them. I didn't get a PS2 until the price dropped into the $170 range (which made it a pretty good deal, considering it doubles as a DVD player). Considering how little game-playing I do, and the huge range of titles for the PS2, I probably won't be upgrading to the new generation of consoles for at least another two years. That said - the Wii looks really intriguing, and I really like Nintendo's focus on gameplay. I don't need graphical bells and whistles - I'm the kind of guy that still enjoys playing old NES and SNES games.
The gameplay focus of the Wii appears doubly smart to me in the sense that most TVs in the US are still going to be standard def for at least the next three or four years (even after the switchover to HD, there are still so many old SDTVs laying around that they will persist for quite a while). Parents buying a gaming system for their kids room probably aren't going to invest the $1500 or so for an HDTV - and on an SDTV, the difference between the Wii and one of the other systems is going to be quite a bit less pronounced. That said, for the next generation of consoles, Nintendo will probably have to refocus on graphics. Once HDTVs are in wide circulation, the differences will simply be too acute.
It's far too early to make an declarations about winners or losers - revisit the situation in a year plus change (post 2007 holiday season) for a better view. But while Xbox 360 and PS3 duke it out, Nintendo isn't even in the same fight, and it's important to point that out. With its different goal (and build), it's more likely to get unique games of its own, and warrant a purchase, even should punters already have one of the other systems. As game development becomes so outrageously expensive, many companies are going to release games on both 360 and PS3 - and you're not likely to see much difference in gameplay. And 360 and PS3 lose money on each console sale (and will for some time, and perhaps even for the entire life of the current generation), whereas Nintendo will pretty much be making profit straight out of the gate (GameCube may not have been a stellar seller, but it turned a nice profit, from early in its life).
Supply issues plague every new console release, and are essentially meaningless - they plagued 360 as well, and those are easy to find, now. The price point will be an issue, yes (do I want a 360 AND a Wii, OR do I want just a PS3), as will feature sets (do I have a high def TV and desire Blu Ray - or am I content to wait and purchase a separate 360 HDDVD once the format war plays out). Granted, in a few years Sony's machine may appear to be more "future proofed", especially should Blu-Ray win out, but if people wait for that future to buy their console, then Sony will be sunk by then. And by then, too, the next Xbox may well be in the works, as Microsoft adheres to a faster turnaround time than Sony wants to aim for.
Keep in mind, though, that there's no reason to think that there isn't enough room for three major players in the market - they all survived the last generation, after all, and with each successive generation the gaming market grows. If they each put out solid machines (and it seems that they have), and don't shoot themselves in the foot (Sony is the only one that appears to have any worries on that front, at the moment), they'll all be golden. And if not golden, then, well, some other precious metal they can be happy with.
...I purchased a 360 last year and have been pretty happy with it. I like the media capabilities of it -- it replaced my crappy old DVD player, and I can stream my entire iTunes library wirelessly from my Mac to it down to my living room where my good speakers are. So it basically replaces a squeezebox I was looking at that did something similar. The fact it plays some fun games is kind of a bonus.
I don't really have an interest in a Wii or a PS3, but as someone who has an older (like a whole 3 years old) HDTV, I'd be super fucking pissed if I bought a PS3 and found out I could only play games in 480p because it doesn't support 1080i for gaming.
I bought a Nintendo Wii. I didn't have to camp out like a loser in front of Best Buy, and I didn't get mauled or shot or arrested. I just walked into the store and bought one off the shelf. This seems like basic retailing but Sony apparently is not able to give their customers a normal buying experience.
Anyway, the Wii is pretty flippin' awesome. The system is small and quiet and unobtrusive. The action of the motion-sensing wireless controller is perfectly intuitive. I took the machine to a party recently and people played Wii Sports Tennis non-stop. It's great to have a game which requires no pressing of buttons and no explanation of how to play. With four controllers the tennis game is pure chaotic fun.
I think you can get a good comparison of the Wii and the PS3 just by looking at their marketing materials. Sony's marketing concentrates on the awesometude of their parallel processor and their high-definition graphics. Nintendo's commercials show people having fun. I think most normal people would rather have fun than stand around explaining that their game console can execute 32 parallel vector multiplications (in certain cases!)
If you want a rough idea of relative console sales, check out http://nexgenwars.com/
This will show just how low I've sunk, but I'm actually waiting until a new DDR game comes out for one of the next gen consoles before I get one. I've currently got a first gen xbox, and I'm so busy that I don't really have time to play any games on it, but at least once a week I play DDR for an hour or so as part of my exercise regime. Last I checked the DDR games for XBOX were not compatible with XBOX360. I'd probably go ahead and spend the money on the 360, even though I'd rarely play it, if my current DDR games would work on it.
If you were a Home Depot customer who waited outside of the Whitehall, Pennsylvania store in the wee hours of the morning on Black Friday to score a wide screen TV, your chances of getting any was slim and none. That's because the store's staff decided to glom up on all those discounted savings.
Illegitimi non carborundum.
Don't ask me why, but apparently, sequels do really well. You know, like Madden 2003, Madden 2004, Madden 2005, Madden 2006, Madden 2007...
