Politics

Rockets' Red Glare: North Korea Launches Seven Missiles

dan.

Posted to Politics on Wed Jul 05, 2006 at 07:28:32 PM EST. RSS.

While Americans were celebrating with hamburgers and hot dogs this Independence Day, North Korea decided to provide the fireworks show.  Starting at 3:30am local time on Wednesday, six missiles (including one Taep'o-dong 2, the missile which some analysts predict has enough range to hit United States territory) were launched into the Sea of Japan.  One additional missile followed at around 5:20pm.

The response from the international community has been more or less predictable.  The United States and Britain joined Japan in calling for a UN Security Council resolution demanding that North Korea halt its missile testing program.  Russia and China have taken a slightly more moderate tone - Russia by requesting a discussion with the North Korean ambassador, and China by releasing a statement saying that it was "greatly concerned."  For its part, North Korean state television broadcast a message stating that its military and people are now "fully prepared to cope with any provocation and challenge by U.S. imperialists."

The United Nations Security Council will hold a closed-door meeting Wednesday, 5 July, amid warnings from the Australian Foreign Minister that Pyongyang could be preparing to launch additional missiles in the near future.  What response, if any, will come from the Security Council?  Will it have any effect on North Korea and its belief (groundless or otherwise) that nuclear weapons are the only way to guarantee its safety from the West?

Tags: North Korea, politics, war (all tags)

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3

Good News For Bush?

uncarved block.

Wed Jul 05, 2006 at 11:18:17 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

Fred Kaplan, who's no shill for the administration, argues for a bit about how this is good news for Bush. Personally, I don't buy the suggestion that this calls into question North Korea's nuclear program: working devices are apparently not much of a challenge for graduate students to build, if you don't want to fit into on a warhead. The threat of a nuclear North Korea has always been the threat of selling fissile materials, if not an actual bomb, and nothing that happened yesterday changes that a jot, IHMO.
   Otherwise, this all seems like some kind of deja vu nightmare, one that's terrible, but which has so many worse endings that continuation is the lesser evil.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

2

A sudden move like this..

LastResort.

Wed Jul 05, 2006 at 10:29:46 PM EST

4.63 (brilliant, funny, astute)

Calls for a response.  And now that North Korea is developing nukes and testing long range missiles, Bush has to do the obvious: bomb Iran.

25

^ 2

WRONG!

Adipic Acid.

Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 08:06:16 AM EST

5.00 (funny)

Iran is too close to North Korea for such a response. I hope the good people of Jamaica have bomb shelters...

18

Is Kim truly insane?

WMK.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 03:36:22 PM EST

4.50 (interesting, astute)

A true 'mad man' would surely be betrayed, killed, and replaced by a conniving underling/strongman so I think that Kim can be assumed to have a capacity for rational thought (longevity = minimal compotence).  'Some capacity for rational thought' isn't exactly saying much when the same can be said for many leaders around the globe with dubious/fatal results for everyone else.  With a minimum baseline of self interested venality and animal cunning as attributes necessary to be a world leader I would also assume self preservation as making it into a global leaders 'top ten list' of personal priorities/principles.

So with Kim looking to get something out of his lifelong career as a James Bond style villian I am thinking we might all be more interested in what the fuck it is he wants than in overheated knock-kneed hand-flappery about how he is going to blow up the world because HE'S TOTALLY NUTS! He isn't any more nuts than say a leader who thinks people would welcome a foreign invasion with bombs of democracy and depleted uranium freedom fragments blasting thier flesh into quivering chunks of western liberal  attitude...Kim Jong Il aka 'Dr. Claw' can't be that off his rocker, right?

He wants something - what is it?  Does anyone know?

If we reacted to a possible threat with a reasoned approach we might succeed in getting some effective reduction of the threat, but that would be a BORING movie (and ineffective political manipulation of the stampeding masses) - much better to freak everyone out then have our crazy nut swagger about in his best folksy cowboy impersonation before unleasing the demon of unintended consequences on the world  again.  

"...when theft and high crime becomes obscenely obvious to even the blindest beer sucking idiot, it is always the Republicans who are in office." -- Joe Bageant

24

^ 18

Kim Jong Il May Well Be Insane.

MayorBob.

Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 07:30:01 AM EST

4.00 (interesting, interesting)

But, he's really only the face the North Koreans present to the rest of the world.  Err, make that the North Korean military.  I'm of the opinion that the North Korean military leadership might be the ones who are truly in charge in Pyongyang.  They keep Lil' Kim around because he's so quaint and cute and the son of the founder of their state, but the military are the ones calling the shots (missile tests as well as everything else).

Which is why the North Koreans are so close-mouthed about much of everything, especially their intentions.  The military in North Korea have it pretty nice, compared to everyone else.  They seem to be the only segment of society with a steady supply of food.  

Perhaps all the excitement over their missile program is another ploy to keep the North Koreans in the news and the mind of the rest of the world.  They are famous for doing this time and again.  As soon as they start to fade from visibility, Pyongyang goes and does something to insure that the rest of the world realizes they exist.  It's really a no risk proposition for them.  It gets the US, Japan and South Korea all het up over their actions.  It gets their patrons in Beijing and Moscow all protective.  There is no way that the latter two are ever going to go along with anything which punishes Pyongyang economically, much less militarily.  And if the day comes when the North Koreans fail to play the international troll and get the rest of us to feed them, that will be the day when the North Korean military begins to truly worry about life without them in charge.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

1

Explosions and stuff.

WhoAreWe.

Wed Jul 05, 2006 at 08:47:16 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

Right now, the test failed.  It's not a concern right now, but is a major concern in the near future.  The missiles reach the Alaska and Hawaii states right now.

I wonder if Americans still have bomb shelters in their house nowadays?

What race card?

6

^ 1

Not the only test failure.

Coelacanth.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 07:41:42 AM EST

none

The U.S. missile defense system doesn't seem to work any better than the NK missiles.  Though it is a harder problem, admittedly.

It's hard to tell whether this is the actions of a truly insane regime, or a canny ploy for international attention and aid.  Either way, it doesn't appear to be an immediate threat.

5

Kim may have blown it

kiwiana.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 04:34:04 AM EST

4.00

(pun unintended)

The international community is pretty united on this one for a change.  Most significantly, China has spoken out against it, and it looks like the tests were conducted without its consent (unless they are playing an even more inscrutable game than usual).

China needs Nth Korea as a buffer on its border, but not as much as N Korea needs China.  The last thing China needs is an armed and very dangerously paranoid neighbour.  Maybe this realisation has swung them into line behind the rest of the powers, and if so a negotiated moderation to NK's offensive capabilities looks more likely now than ever. Here's hoping.

the only reason some people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.

22

^ 5

Nah, he's just playing his 'character'

WMK.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 09:08:10 PM EST

3.50 (funny, interesting)

Kim Jong Il has been A-#1 Super-Pariah (would look great on a T-shirt) like forever and you think his getting on the last nerve of his very short list of friends (CHINA - at least friends who can do anything for him) is anything besides a logical progression of strategy which has been largely immune to international opinon for ...a long time.  Taking another step down that path seems 'in character'.

Think of it this way Kim Jong Il is the Ann Coulter of the Asian Theater - a useful, farthest-you-can-go style fool for the Chinese to coddle and for the west to wring hands and go nuts over.  Total US hegemony over nuclear weaponry with everyone everywhere playing responsible global citizen and subordinating themselves to the planetary alpha-wolf  helps the chinese, indians, russians, and whomever else has military-economic agendas that don't equal 'slavery to the United States' how?  

It doesn't keep Chinese options open to have a 'solved' North Korea Nuclear problem. The instability keeps the game interesting and fluid when your goal is to deprive the US of total global control over any choice in your national destiny.  Giving George Bush a problem when he's a lame duck anyway doesn't really hurt his cadre-creche of mega-elite 'business as usual = coprotocracy' operatives - a new guy will replace him in 2008 anyway (can't spark the American welfare-proles into full on rebellion now can we?) and making the North Korea problem a 'big deal' that will be triumphantly solved by a GOP government (making them look compotent and strong) is in China's interest.  To the credit of the souless self-interested USian elite, they know how to work a deal with the Asians - they are all reasonable people - just with different priorities and agendas than what 'fear stampede of the moment' issue is making the masses froth through media manipulation with an eye on how it will play out come election time.  All the foreign powers have to do is deliver an 'acceptible' option to the western elites... i bet the consensus is that they don't need 'total' domination immediately, just effective domination right now (made true by pure military power) and for the foreseeable future - everything afterwards can be negotiated (why be pessimistic - continuing to 'win' requires creative thinking and maintenance of existing advantages, should be dooable).

I know I have NO PROOF that Kim Jong Il, the Chinese gov't, and the Western Corporate master class have an agreement as to how these scary 'nuclear proliferation' media/political fooferaws play out - but doesn't my suggestion that they are somewhat 'staged' entice you?

or maybe its too 'conspiracy theory' and we should take the circus of idiots we see as global leaders as being 'all there is to it'?

"...when theft and high crime becomes obscenely obvious to even the blindest beer sucking idiot, it is always the Republicans who are in office." -- Joe Bageant

28

^ 22

Conspiracy is such a long word!

permazorch.

Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 02:18:01 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

It has four syllables, but consider me enticed.

I don't have a problem with calling our global masters, 'conspirators', really. But let's not think of it as cloak & dagger so much as a network of the elite. It's no big deal for like-minded, politically motivated individuals from the same socio-economic background (extremely rich & powerful) to get together and share ideas. It's natural. Of course, to us, it is a conspiracy. They control our world. On a planet of billions, it's only mere thousands who determine our fate.
Is there a world-wide conspiracy? Not the way we usually think of it, otherwise why would They let frat-rat Georgie-Boy become prez? Bad decision, masters.

Yeah, incompetence is the entree & conspiracy is the garnish.

----- The earth may fail, but we will quiver

29

^ 28

Good point

JimmyHavok.

Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 05:35:23 PM EST

none

Malice, conspiracy and incompetence are not necessarily incompatible.

26

^ 22

I Think It Was Napoleon

Adipic Acid.

Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 08:11:33 AM EST

none

Who said, "never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence." We may have a textbook case of that here.

4

Hard cash

tomc.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 12:05:56 AM EST

3.00 (funny)

The good news is North Korea gave us hard currency when we finally unloaded those Patriot missiles.

Couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.

9

Intractable situation

port1080.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 09:50:58 AM EST

2.66 (astute, interesting)

The North Koreans hold most of the cards here.  I'm going to look at the issue point by point.

1.  North Korea is not Iraq.  Even though North Korea is probably the most legitimate possible candidate for a "preemptive strike" (certainly much more so than Iraq was), their army is strong enough and the terrain is mountainous enough that invasion would be very difficult.  It would not be a quick or easy war, even if we were able to mobilize twice the number of troops we used in Iraq.  In addition, conventional ground attacks must be ruled out because the North Koreans have enough artillery pieces pointed at Seoul to level the city in a few hours.

2.  Sanctions will not work.  North Korea is already in such bad straights that it's a stretch to think sanctions will modify their behavior.  The regime has already shown its willingness to let its people starve, there's no evidence that this has changed.  The humanitarian disaster caused by strict sanctions would simply be intollerable - it would cause starvation on a mass scale, without doing much to improve our position.  In addition, they know that we know that the more pressure we put on them, the more likely they are to try to sell their nuclear technology for hard cash.  

3.  They do indeed have nuclear weapons.  While the latest test may have failed, the North Koreans don't even have to have a launchable weapon to do a lot of damage to South Korea - all they have to do is load it on a flatbed truck and drive it up to the DMZ.  We can't even safely try to foment an internal revolution, because we can't risk the potential instability (and therefore the increased use risk of accidental detonation) that a North Korean civil war would cause.

4.  If you thought increased oil prices were bad...  East Asia is one of the lynchpins of the world economy - major instability in the region would cause destabilizing capital flight that would make the '97 Asian financial crisis look like a minor recession.  Japan, China, and South Korea are three of the largest economies in the world - and North Korea directly threatens all three.

In sum, they've got us strapped over a barrel, and right now they're starting to drop their trousers.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

15

^ 9

"Nork" nuclear weapons?

sglover.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 02:00:20 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

We always hear the assertion that Pyonyang has nuclear weapons, but to date there's been no report of even a successful test detonation, and it doesn't seem likely that such an event would go unreported.    Since all indications are that North Korea is building its nuclear program around plutonium, it's hard to say they really have a weapon until they demonstrate their own "Fat Man"-type device.


An argument isn't merely nay-saying and contradictions! -- M. Python

13

^ 9

Garsh!

permazorch.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 12:14:09 PM EST

3.00 (interesting, obnoxious)

Don't we have explosive diarrhea (in office)?

----- The earth may fail, but we will quiver

20

^ 9

Which cards?

Petronius.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 04:22:40 PM EST

3.00 (interesting)

Some of the comments I've been hearing suggest that the cards held by NK are not necessarily the military ones. For example, China provides a huge percentage of NK's food and energy. If they turn off deliveries Fat Boy is in a lot of trouble. However, if NK collapses, the results for China may be worse than putting up with their provocations. To wit:

  1. NK collapses, and millions of starving NKers wander over the border into Manchuria looking for food, and China is stuck either feeding them or shooting them or driving them back to Korea.

  2. The current ruling clique collapses, and some stone-faced general with 40 lbs. of medals grabs one of the alleged nukes and goes warlord, trying to carve out a little kingdom someplace.

  3. NK collapses, the ROK moves in to succor their Northern brothers, and adjust the DMZ northwards to the current Chinese border, and China is left with a unified penninsula more or less allied to the USA.

  4. All of the above

23

^ 20

collapse

JimmyHavok.

Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 04:23:21 AM EST

none

The collapse is inevitable, and tossing in a nuke or two to sweeten the deal will really make things interesting.

I'm of the opinion that a glowing crater is almost inevitable, the big question will be, who catches the bomb?

If things break down and there's a two-sided invasion (ROK in the south, China in the north) then it depends on which side the nut with the bomb thinks will work out better for him...I'd be selling my property in Seoul about now, to tell the truth.

Or it could end up with a spite strike at any one of the six parties (let's not leave out "suppressing an insurrection" or "getting rid of that madman"as a motive for dropping the Big One).

But somebody's gonna eat some neutrons.

27

^ 23

It seems most likely...

maml.

Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 11:30:19 AM EST

none

I imagine the population most likely to be on the recieving end of a North Korean nuclear strike is the North Koreans.  Detonating an A-bomb on your own territory to slow an invasion or an accidental detonation.

...Dwayne was hoping that he would pay exactly the right amount of attention to Francine's clitoris.

30

^ 27

Huge explosion

JimmyHavok.

Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 05:42:48 PM EST

none

Remember this?  Mysterious huge explosions aren't unknown in NK.

Up to 3,000 people have been killed or injured in a huge explosion after two fuel trains collided in North Korea, reports say.
The blast happened at Ryongchon station, 50km north of Pyongyang, South Korea's YTN television said.
The timing on that one was interesting, since KJI had just passed through the site nine hours earlier.

32

^ 30

Railway Explosion

Petronius.

Sun Jul 09, 2006 at 06:25:38 PM EST

none

In the aftermath of that railway disaster, which may have killed 3,000 people, the Guardian quoted NK news agencies as reporting many of the dead had met their end while trying to rescue pictures of the Dear Leader. Instead of running away from the ongoing disaster they ran into burning buildings to preserve the image of their beloved leader. Didn't this happen a lot in Stalin's time, as well?

33

^ 32

Mao

maml.

Mon Jul 10, 2006 at 03:55:43 PM EST

2.00 (informative)

I know that during the Cultural Revolution you couldn't throw out anything with Mao's picture on it.  Of course, he picture was on everything.  For years everyone had to hoard their newspapers, and if someone saw you burning the Great Helmsman's portrait to start a cooking fire, you'd be kneeling on broken glass at the next town meeting.

...Dwayne was hoping that he would pay exactly the right amount of attention to Francine's clitoris.

7

Alarmism

David Flores.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 08:51:39 AM EST

2.60 (obnoxious, funny, astute)

North Korea is a dangerous authoritarian dungeon, but it does bohter me that the MSM keeps going on about how the Taepodong missile could potentially hit the U.S.

Yeah, assuming it doesn't self destruct on liftoff or disintegrate over the Pacific, a Taepodong could conceivably hit a barren Alaskan coastline, at which point the U.S. military would promptly annihilate the North Korean military and much of the country's pre-historic infrastructure, invade, put Kim Jong Il on trial for crimes against humanity and have him executed.

The MSM really needs to put things into perspective before it starts scaring people with tales of bronze-age missiles that could conceivably hit the U.S. if the bubble gum that's holding them together doesn't melt before they make the trans-pacific crossing.

8

^ 7

Don't dismiss it so fast

Dvandom.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 09:15:14 AM EST

4.00 (astute)

Sure, NK is working with technology half a century old.  But remember, half a century ago, payloads were being put into orbit.  A crap missile that can reach Hawaii or maybe California is still a missile that can reach those places.  And a dangerously insane leader is still dangerous.

--

This is not a signature.

17

^ 8

What goes up...

gaspacho.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 03:22:55 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

...must come down.  And there's no evidence of NK ever having developed or tested a re-entry body for delivery.

Sure, after 30 more test flights they might figure out how to get one of their SCUD-derived missiles to cross the Pacific.  But any payload would burn up on re-entry.

No need to hide under the bed just yet.

10

^ 8

Danger!

David Flores.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 11:36:49 AM EST

3.60 (obnoxious, funny, astute)

A North Korean missile could kill a lot of people... especially if you gathered them in a small space, raised it over their heads with a crane and dropped it on them.

It also has the range to reach the Capitol Building in Washington D.C... provided you launch it from the Washington Monument, and the weather is fair.

The real threat from North Korea is to South Korea, and it comes in the form of thousands of artillery pieces that are trained on the South. Any attack on North Korea would mean devastation for the South.

11

^ 10

re: Danger!

Shadarr.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 11:58:45 AM EST

none

The real threat from North Korea is to South Korea, and it comes in the form of thousands of artillery pieces that are trained on the South. Any attack on North Korea would mean devastation for the South.

Unless the attack took the form of a nuclear strike.  I bet their missile defense system is no better than ours.

--
Bite the hand.

12

^ 11

Nukem

David Flores.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 12:11:14 PM EST

3.00

The North's Artillery pieces are strewn about the country. It's also a mountainous region.  don't think you could knock them out with a nuclear strike. Nukes are good for large, dense targets. If you wanted to take out the North's military capabiliyt you'd have to send in wave after wave of missile and air-strikes. And in that time the North would have had plenty of time to devastate much of the South.

19

^ 12

No way!

JimmyHavok.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 04:03:36 PM EST

5.00 (astute, funny, offtopic)

don't think you could knock them out with a nuclear strike.

Nukes are like magic!  That's why we could have used them to win in Vietnam, if the cowardly commies in Washington hadn't stopped us.  That's why we have to keep the Godless Muslim towelheads from getting them.

If you just drop a nuclear bomb, you get everything you ever wanted, and a pony too.

31

^ 12

Dual purpose air raid shelters

airbag.

Sun Jul 09, 2006 at 02:24:40 PM EST

none

The North's Artillery pieces are strewn about the country. It's also a mountainous region.  don't think you could knock them out with a nuclear strike.

And don't forget the infiltration tunnels under the DMZ. If the North Koreans can pop up with artillery and troops next to Seoul, something more circumscribed than a nuke will be needed to take them out.

14

^ 11

Prevailing winds

eiger.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 01:15:25 PM EST

3.00 (astute)

I'm sure those countries along the path of the prevailing winds (aka S. Korea, JApan, (and potentially) the US and Canada) would really appreciate your plan for nuclear annihilation.

16

^ 14

Annihilation?

tomc.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 02:01:09 PM EST

none

I was under the impression it would be more of a surgical strike.

21

^ 16

No fallout

eiger.

Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 06:15:59 PM EST

3.00

What with the magical new nukes that can penetrate bunkers and cause no fallout? Good luck working on that one.

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