Fred Kaplan, who's no shill for the administration, argues for a bit about how this is good news for Bush. Personally, I don't buy the suggestion that this calls into question North Korea's nuclear program: working devices are apparently not much of a challenge for graduate students to build, if you don't want to fit into on a warhead. The threat of a nuclear North Korea has always been the threat of selling fissile materials, if not an actual bomb, and nothing that happened yesterday changes that a jot, IHMO.
Otherwise, this all seems like some kind of deja vu nightmare, one that's terrible, but which has so many worse endings that continuation is the lesser evil.
Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras
Calls for a response. And now that North Korea is developing nukes and testing long range missiles, Bush has to do the obvious: bomb Iran.
A true 'mad man' would surely be betrayed, killed, and replaced by a conniving underling/strongman so I think that Kim can be assumed to have a capacity for rational thought (longevity = minimal compotence). 'Some capacity for rational thought' isn't exactly saying much when the same can be said for many leaders around the globe with dubious/fatal results for everyone else. With a minimum baseline of self interested venality and animal cunning as attributes necessary to be a world leader I would also assume self preservation as making it into a global leaders 'top ten list' of personal priorities/principles.
So with Kim looking to get something out of his lifelong career as a James Bond style villian I am thinking we might all be more interested in what the fuck it is he wants than in overheated knock-kneed hand-flappery about how he is going to blow up the world because HE'S TOTALLY NUTS! He isn't any more nuts than say a leader who thinks people would welcome a foreign invasion with bombs of democracy and depleted uranium freedom fragments blasting thier flesh into quivering chunks of western liberal attitude...Kim Jong Il aka 'Dr. Claw' can't be that off his rocker, right?
He wants something - what is it? Does anyone know?
If we reacted to a possible threat with a reasoned approach we might succeed in getting some effective reduction of the threat, but that would be a BORING movie (and ineffective political manipulation of the stampeding masses) - much better to freak everyone out then have our crazy nut swagger about in his best folksy cowboy impersonation before unleasing the demon of unintended consequences on the world again.
"...when theft and high crime becomes obscenely obvious to even the blindest beer sucking idiot, it is always the Republicans who are in office." -- Joe Bageant
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Kim Jong Il May Well Be Insane.
Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 07:30:01 AM EST
4.00 (interesting, interesting)
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But, he's really only the face the North Koreans present to the rest of the world. Err, make that the North Korean military. I'm of the opinion that the North Korean military leadership might be the ones who are truly in charge in Pyongyang. They keep Lil' Kim around because he's so quaint and cute and the son of the founder of their state, but the military are the ones calling the shots (missile tests as well as everything else).
Which is why the North Koreans are so close-mouthed about much of everything, especially their intentions. The military in North Korea have it pretty nice, compared to everyone else. They seem to be the only segment of society with a steady supply of food.
Perhaps all the excitement over their missile program is another ploy to keep the North Koreans in the news and the mind of the rest of the world. They are famous for doing this time and again. As soon as they start to fade from visibility, Pyongyang goes and does something to insure that the rest of the world realizes they exist. It's really a no risk proposition for them. It gets the US, Japan and South Korea all het up over their actions. It gets their patrons in Beijing and Moscow all protective. There is no way that the latter two are ever going to go along with anything which punishes Pyongyang economically, much less militarily. And if the day comes when the North Koreans fail to play the international troll and get the rest of us to feed them, that will be the day when the North Korean military begins to truly worry about life without them in charge.
Illegitimi non carborundum.
Right now, the test failed. It's not a concern right now, but is a major concern in the near future. The missiles reach the Alaska and Hawaii states right now.
I wonder if Americans still have bomb shelters in their house nowadays?
What race card?
(pun unintended)
The international community is pretty united on this one for a change. Most significantly, China has spoken out against it, and it looks like the tests were conducted without its consent (unless they are playing an even more inscrutable game than usual).
China needs Nth Korea as a buffer on its border, but not as much as N Korea needs China. The last thing China needs is an armed and very dangerously paranoid neighbour. Maybe this realisation has swung them into line behind the rest of the powers, and if so a negotiated moderation to NK's offensive capabilities looks more likely now than ever. Here's hoping.
the only reason some people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.
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Nah, he's just playing his 'character'
Thu Jul 06, 2006 at 09:08:10 PM EST
3.50 (funny, interesting)
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Kim Jong Il has been A-#1 Super-Pariah (would look great on a T-shirt) like forever and you think his getting on the last nerve of his very short list of friends (CHINA - at least friends who can do anything for him) is anything besides a logical progression of strategy which has been largely immune to international opinon for ...a long time. Taking another step down that path seems 'in character'.
Think of it this way Kim Jong Il is the Ann Coulter of the Asian Theater - a useful, farthest-you-can-go style fool for the Chinese to coddle and for the west to wring hands and go nuts over. Total US hegemony over nuclear weaponry with everyone everywhere playing responsible global citizen and subordinating themselves to the planetary alpha-wolf helps the chinese, indians, russians, and whomever else has military-economic agendas that don't equal 'slavery to the United States' how?
It doesn't keep Chinese options open to have a 'solved' North Korea Nuclear problem. The instability keeps the game interesting and fluid when your goal is to deprive the US of total global control over any choice in your national destiny. Giving George Bush a problem when he's a lame duck anyway doesn't really hurt his cadre-creche of mega-elite 'business as usual = coprotocracy' operatives - a new guy will replace him in 2008 anyway (can't spark the American welfare-proles into full on rebellion now can we?) and making the North Korea problem a 'big deal' that will be triumphantly solved by a GOP government (making them look compotent and strong) is in China's interest. To the credit of the souless self-interested USian elite, they know how to work a deal with the Asians - they are all reasonable people - just with different priorities and agendas than what 'fear stampede of the moment' issue is making the masses froth through media manipulation with an eye on how it will play out come election time. All the foreign powers have to do is deliver an 'acceptible' option to the western elites... i bet the consensus is that they don't need 'total' domination immediately, just effective domination right now (made true by pure military power) and for the foreseeable future - everything afterwards can be negotiated (why be pessimistic - continuing to 'win' requires creative thinking and maintenance of existing advantages, should be dooable).
I know I have NO PROOF that Kim Jong Il, the Chinese gov't, and the Western Corporate master class have an agreement as to how these scary 'nuclear proliferation' media/political fooferaws play out - but doesn't my suggestion that they are somewhat 'staged' entice you?
or maybe its too 'conspiracy theory' and we should take the circus of idiots we see as global leaders as being 'all there is to it'?
"...when theft and high crime becomes obscenely obvious to even the blindest beer sucking idiot, it is always the Republicans who are in office." -- Joe Bageant
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Conspiracy is such a long word!
Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 02:18:01 PM EST
4.00 (astute)
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It has four syllables, but consider me enticed.
I don't have a problem with calling our global masters, 'conspirators', really. But let's not think of it as cloak & dagger so much as a network of the elite. It's no big deal for like-minded, politically motivated individuals from the same socio-economic background (extremely rich & powerful) to get together and share ideas. It's natural. Of course, to us, it is a conspiracy. They control our world. On a planet of billions, it's only mere thousands who determine our fate.
Is there a world-wide conspiracy? Not the way we usually think of it, otherwise why would They let frat-rat Georgie-Boy become prez? Bad decision, masters.
Yeah, incompetence is the entree & conspiracy is the garnish.
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The earth may fail, but we will quiver
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Good point
Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 05:35:23 PM EST
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Malice, conspiracy and incompetence are not necessarily incompatible.
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I Think It Was Napoleon
Fri Jul 07, 2006 at 08:11:33 AM EST
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Who said, "never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence." We may have a textbook case of that here.
The good news is North Korea gave us hard currency when we finally unloaded those Patriot missiles.
Couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.
The North Koreans hold most of the cards here. I'm going to look at the issue point by point.
1. North Korea is not Iraq. Even though North Korea is probably the most legitimate possible candidate for a "preemptive strike" (certainly much more so than Iraq was), their army is strong enough and the terrain is mountainous enough that invasion would be very difficult. It would not be a quick or easy war, even if we were able to mobilize twice the number of troops we used in Iraq. In addition, conventional ground attacks must be ruled out because the North Koreans have enough artillery pieces pointed at Seoul to level the city in a few hours.
2. Sanctions will not work. North Korea is already in such bad straights that it's a stretch to think sanctions will modify their behavior. The regime has already shown its willingness to let its people starve, there's no evidence that this has changed. The humanitarian disaster caused by strict sanctions would simply be intollerable - it would cause starvation on a mass scale, without doing much to improve our position. In addition, they know that we know that the more pressure we put on them, the more likely they are to try to sell their nuclear technology for hard cash.
3. They do indeed have nuclear weapons. While the latest test may have failed, the North Koreans don't even have to have a launchable weapon to do a lot of damage to South Korea - all they have to do is load it on a flatbed truck and drive it up to the DMZ. We can't even safely try to foment an internal revolution, because we can't risk the potential instability (and therefore the increased use risk of accidental detonation) that a North Korean civil war would cause.
4. If you thought increased oil prices were bad... East Asia is one of the lynchpins of the world economy - major instability in the region would cause destabilizing capital flight that would make the '97 Asian financial crisis look like a minor recession. Japan, China, and South Korea are three of the largest economies in the world - and North Korea directly threatens all three.
In sum, they've got us strapped over a barrel, and right now they're starting to drop their trousers.
Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.
North Korea is a dangerous authoritarian dungeon, but it does bohter me that the MSM keeps going on about how the Taepodong missile could potentially hit the U.S.
Yeah, assuming it doesn't self destruct on liftoff or disintegrate over the Pacific, a Taepodong could conceivably hit a barren Alaskan coastline, at which point the U.S. military would promptly annihilate the North Korean military and much of the country's pre-historic infrastructure, invade, put Kim Jong Il on trial for crimes against humanity and have him executed.
The MSM really needs to put things into perspective before it starts scaring people with tales of bronze-age missiles that could conceivably hit the U.S. if the bubble gum that's holding them together doesn't melt before they make the trans-pacific crossing.