Etcetera

Finally A Solution To Our Dependence On Oil - More Oil!

rasta smurf.

Posted to Etcetera on Sun Sep 17, 2006 at 01:19:01 PM EST. RSS.

Ever since 9/11, oil prices have risen steadily and, consequently, oil company profits have steadily been sweeter than the crude oil they're based on.  Unlike the executives at Big Oil however, the average American has had little to smile about when it comes to energy prices.  With two wars on tap, and seemingly endless tensions in the middle east, they've seen the cost of virtually everything that even remotely relies on crude oil for production, rise.

Meanwhile, what has Big Oil been doing with all that money from black gold?  Some hoped that the companies would "scratch our backs" in return by investing some of their lucrative profits in renewable energy.  Is it reasonable to request this from oil companies?  The answer may be found in a recent test by Chevron and its partners.  The companies involved were successfully able to extract oil from a test well in the Gulf of Mexico.  The significance of this test is that it may well prove to be the "biggest breakthrough in domestic oil supplies since the opening of the Alaskan pipeline".  Already the market has reacted to the news sending oil prices lower.  Though Analysts have cautioned motorists that the find does not necessarily mean instant, or even long term, relief from the price at the gas pump, one can't help feeling euphoria from this news.  But what does this news say about the future of alternative methods of energy?  Considering the competitive nature of oil companies (or all companies for that matter), would this find only trigger a race to find more sources of oil rather than an efficient and cost effective replacement for the natural resource?  Of course, events like these help us in our effort to reduce our dependence on foreign oil - but is it worth it?

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7

Oil Prices? Politics!

kcwookie.

Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 07:37:07 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

Oil prices have nothing to do with anything but politics.  Starting in the summer of 2000, Bush was behind in the polls and prices at the pump started to rise while Bush started harping on drilling in ANWR and promoting his knowledge of oil.  After the election was over, prices came back down a little, but not to where they were.

Fast forward to now, gas prices are higher then they ever have been and oil company profits are at record levels, there is evidence of price fixing or at least collusion.  Bush has dropped like a stone in the polls and it looks like the GOP could loose either the House or the Senate, or both, and what do prices do?  They drop like a stone in hopes of getting the oil company give aways off the table while praying the public will forget.  After all if the Democrats get one of the chambers, investigations into the Bush Whitehouse, big oil and others will bloom like cherry blossoms in the spring.

IF you vote GOP don't complain about gas prices or oil company profits.

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Re: Oil Prices? Politics!

wetkarma.

Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 11:10:55 PM EST

none


Oil prices have nothing to do with anything but politics.  Starting in the summer of 2000, Bush was behind in the polls and prices at the pump started to rise while Bush started harping on drilling in ANWR and promoting his knowledge of oil.  After the election was over, prices came back down a little, but not to where they were.

Fascinating. If only the Amaranth hedge fund had understood your perspective on the energy market, they would not have lost 5 billion in a week. Knowledge like yours should be spread far and wide..perhaps most useful as applied technology in the agricultural sector to aid in crop yields.

Please expand a bit on how the supply of oil from oil producing countries like Venezuela and the Mid-east, combined with the rising demand from countries like China are outweighed by "politics".

Thanks in advance,
your ardent fan,
Wetkarma

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

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Saudis, mainly.

1fastdog.

Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 12:11:26 PM EST

none

Please expand a bit on how the supply of oil from oil producing countries like Venezuela and the Mid-east, combined with the rising demand from countries like China are outweighed by "politics

Well, the simplest scenario goes something like this:
OPEC (read: Saudi Arabia - who happen to be huge Bush fans - are in charge of assigning each country's production quotas) has allowed overproduction to ride into the usual Fall price decline(1* 2*) just in time to drop the price of gasoline for the upcoming elections. To be sure there are many factors out of the Saudi's control, but they moreso than any other factor, largely determine the price of oil. It's not unreasonable to assume that they'd allow a short-term spike in supply and the corresponding price drop to occur if it would help Bush and GOP.
Many would argue that it's vastly more complicated than that, and perhaps they're right. But I still think that the Saudis have enough sway to give Bush a boost.

The first link below is one you should enjoy. It's got a ton of analysis and theories that delve into all the factors. Most of the comments there are pretty good, too.

1*Prices have fallen from their risk-induced high of $78/barrel (Israeli/Hezbollah war) to just above $63/barrel as of this writing. A quick glimpse at Figure 2 reveals that after the risk-induced high (hurricanes) of $70/barrel in 2005, prices subsequently fell to about $57/barrel. In 2004, prices reached $55/barrel in late summer before falling to about $42/barrel in October. However, the current drop of about $15/barrel exceeds both prior years by $2/barrel--and October isn't here yet.

2*So why are gasoline prices coming down so dramatically? There are important seasonal factors in U.S. gasoline prices, which are higher in the summer due to summer fuel requirements and greater gasoline demand. Everyone always seems as shocked when prices go up in the spring as when they come down in the fall, even though to some extent that same pattern is repeated every year. However, much more than just the usual seasonal is in operation this fall. The drop in crude oil prices, down $14/barrel over the last month, has now become the dominating factor.

Somewhere in my soul, there's always Rock -n- Roll... Joe Strummer

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Subject is too long (max is 50 characters).

eduardo.

Sun Sep 17, 2006 at 07:37:38 PM EST

none

In my experience, companies ( and people ) do what they're best at. Quite frankly, I'd expect the next energy revolution to come out of someone's garage, not an oil company's R&D lab, because that's not where their brains are at.

Most of what I know about the new find is in the writeup, but it sounds like having a domestic supply of oil is an all around good thing. The concern which seems to be implied in the writeup is that this may drop the price of oil low enough to discourage work on alternatives.

I am not sure that's true. If someone has the solution to dependance on fossil fuelds in their mind, that person won't stop trying to get it out just because the gas goes down a little.

On the other hand, I thought it was very interesting that the American economy has done well in the face of rising energy costs.

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Tax, man

eminem enterprises.

Sun Sep 17, 2006 at 08:11:37 PM EST

none

I like the European approach of taxing gas at the pumps, such that the price is like twice what it is in North America. That keeps the cars small, and encourages public transit. It is also economically justifiable, as it recaptures a lot of the negative "externalities" - e.g more demand on public health services because of air pollution; climate change interfering with economic activity  - of oil use.

But the two petroleum courses I took in uni all those, um, years, ago taught me that when the oil price goes up, it's sure to come back down 5-10 years later. There's still a lot of oil left in the world, and the more expensive it gets the more companies are encouraged to look for it. Three or so years back, I saw an article which said that oil companies had been basing their exploration and development budgets assuming $25 oil. Imagine how much more effort they're willing to put into E & D today.

The point is, there's so much oil available at a "reasonable price" (which apparently includes the current price) that we can't rely on the free market alone to encourage the development of alternatives. If an urgent need to lower greenhouse gases is deemed necessary, then governments need to step in. Increasing taxes on gasoline is a good place to start.

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On public transportation

patientfox.

Mon Sep 18, 2006 at 07:03:52 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

I like the European approach of taxing gas at the pumps, such that the price is like twice what it is in North America. That keeps the cars small, and encourages public transit.

While this sounds good coming from a common sense perspective, you have to keep in mind that public transportation is not the silver bullet for American transportation woes that it is in Europe. The largest west-European nation is at best the size of California, urban centers are more densely populated and they don't exactly have the same Middle-America diaspora that makes up much of the population of America. Try living anywhere in the rural south and imagine trying to get around without a car (even if it didn't seem like the public transportation was being sabotaged by local governments), you'll find that urban centers are much more spread out. If you've ever visited California's central valley, which is one of the largest population centers in the US, you'll find that it's spread out over several-hundred square miles of strip malls and assorted crap. Once again an example of a place not well-served by public transportation.

As a disclaimer, I say this as someone who, growing in the Puget Sound (which has an excellent public transportation infrastructure), literally grew up with a bus pass that I used daily to get around. I just don't think it's a cure-all country-wide.

I don't imagine we'd see the same solution applied to Russia, China or India.

I honestly won't even touch the taxation part of your comment. I can imagine Nascar-men of the land rising up en masse in a tax revolt, especially when it's modeled on the high-falutin euro-faggotry liberalism we've so come to despise and denounce in this decade as "un-American"

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Re: Tax, man

wetkarma.

Mon Sep 18, 2006 at 11:20:41 AM EST

5.00 (brilliant)


I like the European approach of taxing gas at the pumps, such that the price is like twice what it is in North America. That keeps the cars small, and encourages public transit.

Your "one size fits all" theory for human transportation regardless of world geopraphy intrigues me and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Please tell me more about how small cars in europe would be effective in snow passes of Colorado or the farming states of Idaho, or how public mass transit would be suitable in areas where the average commute to the supermarket is a 15min car ride.

I propose we collect all the sparsely distributed people living in "flyover country" and perhaps create "camps" where they could be "concentrated". This way the citizenry could be easily taxed and thus alternative energy sources would appear. Also this would create room to bring back the wooly mammoth and large mega fauna.

Naturally abberant cities like Hong Kong where petrol costs 4x as much as in the US but have little effect on the prolific number and types of vehicles should be ignored. After all..Europe clearly knows whats best and is the prospective source of innovation for the world over the next century.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

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Man, tax

gaspacho.

Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 10:29:58 AM EST

5.00 (funny, funny)

I propose that we "do nothing".  

Then when the oil "runs out" the economy will "collapse", thereby making it easier for those in the flyover states to "starve".  

Needless to say, these fine citizens will of course die "happy", knowing that they never had to bear the burden of unnecessary Keynesian "taxation" as their twisted, swollen faces lock up into their final "death grimaces" in the burning prairie sun.

The few Libertarian survivors clever enough to have stowed away "cans of beans" and "firearms" beforehand will then arise from their bunkers, to take their true place as "Lords of Libertopia" for All Time.

Then, dear comrade, the Galaxy will be ours!

Purity! Clarity! Acension!

same old bitter taste!

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Re: Man, tax

wetkarma.

Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 11:20:57 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)


Then when the oil "runs out" the economy will "collapse", thereby making it easier for those in the flyover states to "starve".

An excellent suggestion! Almost as good as the proposition that N. America switches over to the use of small cars and mass transit. Pray tell however for those of us who are unenlightened.....this "runs out" you speak of...where is the energy shortage in a world with access to nuclear power and why does a paucity of oil drive economic collapse and not economic innovation and adaptation?

Moreover this "running out of oil" you speak of...what is your prospective timeline for this scenario. As I'm sure you are aware, we currently have at minimum 35 years in known oil reservers, with higher prices driving more exploration.

Finally...I'm not sure if you are aware of this..but those flyover states are the food producers - aka the bread basket of America. If anyone were to starve, they would be the last ones.

Still I appreciate your intermingling of communistic camraderie and libertarian ethos. It speaks to a casual disregard for intellectual consistency that behooves anyone with access to the national enquirer and news of the world.

woe discordia

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

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Re: Man, tax

gaspacho.

Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 01:23:51 PM EST

5.00 (funny)

this "runs out" you speak of...where is the energy shortage in a world with access to nuclear power and why does a paucity of oil drive economic collapse and not economic innovation and adaptation?

An excellent question!  

Regrettably, the time required to build a nuclear power plant in a post-oil world, with adobe bricks, bits of straw and animal/human labor is currently unknown!  But I have no doubt that the Free Market (invisible... infallible. inexorable... amen) will come up with a solution that's compatible with 18th century technology!  And just in the nick of time, too!

These Kantian/Keysians, with their silly "planning" and "forethought", will soon be expunged from the genetic record!

As I'm sure you are aware, we currently have at minimum 35 years in known oil reservers, with higher prices driving more exploration.

In a mere 35 years, I will be teaching my grandchildren to make flutes with the Bones of Kantians!

I find your ideas regarding the link between Wishful Thinking and Oil Supplies to be fascinating... I was under the apparently mistaken impression that Petroleum deposits were formed over geologic time from microscopic fossils, with no causal link to market price.  This new theory of how high prices will magically form new Oil deposits is much more convenient to my beliefs!

I thank you for correcting my error, comrade!

I'm not sure if you are aware of this..but those flyover states are the food producers - aka the bread basket of America. If anyone were to starve, they would be the last ones.

My brother... you're forgetting that this "food" of which you speak will be carted away by armed men to feed the wealthy elites huddled in the cities, while the starving peasants of the prarie (having no other resources) can only stand and watch!  

Didn't you attend your Lectures on Corporate Feudalism at the Academy?  Tsk, tsk.

Still I appreciate your intermingling of communistic camraderie and libertarian ethos.

Hey, it's not my fault that hardcore Libertarians use so many inverted Maoist tropes!  Take it up with your newsletter editor!

same old bitter taste!

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Re: Tax, man

thefadd.

Mon Sep 18, 2006 at 06:32:49 PM EST

none

I propose we collect all the sparsely distributed people living in "flyover country" and perhaps create "camps" where they could be "concentrated". This way the citizenry could be easily taxed and thus alternative energy sources would appear. Also this would create room to bring back the wooly mammoth and large mega fauna. That's a good idea. If you live in such a sparsely populated area, it must not be that important to you to be near people so you can just take a horse and buggy anyway.

escalators never fail; they just become stairs

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