Etcetera

Southern California's On Fire - Disaster Area Declared

pO157.

Posted to Etcetera on Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 07:50:51 AM EST (promoted by 1fastdog). RSS.

President Bush and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger have declared a large region of Southern California a disaster area in response to massive fires sweeping through the area.

The fire has forced the evacuation of over 300,000 people as of this morning, killed at least one person, and destroyed over 600 homes. 374 square miles are estimated to be in flames as some residents skirted police patrols with evacuation orders to stay behind and guard their property.

Tom Sollie, 49, ignored evacuation orders in Rancho Bernardo to help his neighbors spray roofs on his street with water. His home was untouched, but he watched a neighbor's house reduced to nothing but the remnants of a brick chimney. "The house went up like a Roman candle. If we weren't here, the whole neighborhood would go up. There just aren't enough fire trucks around." Sollie said.

FoxNews has several pictures from the area over the past few days.

As terrible as the current situation is, the fire is estimated to get much worse. There is no rain forecast for the next several days in the area and winds are expected to remain high.

Tags: written by pO157, edited by 1fastdog, breaking news, Arnold Schwarzenegger, National Guard, Emergency, Fire, Forest Fire, Fire Department, Firefighter, California, President Bush, Tom Sollie, Fox News, CNN, Weather.com (all tags)

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1

It's OK, just Democrat's homes that are burning...

port1080.

Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 09:03:16 AM EST

4.00 (funny)

...according to CNN's Glen Beck,anyway.  Yesterday on his radio show he went into a somewhat incoherent rant, finishing with this doozy:

I think there is a handful of people who hate America. Unfortunately for them, a lot of them are losing their homes in a forest fire today.

There are a few people that hate America. But I don't think the Democrats are those. I think there are those posing as Democrats that are like that. But you don't come into the center. You have to stand up for what you believe in.

Maybe Beck got ahold of some of Rushie's Oxycontin?

12

^ 1

Re: It's OK, just Democrat's homes that are burnin

ScotlandTheBrave.

Wed Oct 24, 2007 at 06:45:12 PM EST

4.66 (astute, astute, astute)

I actually wrote a pointless letter to that fucker pointing out that the areas worst hit by the fire are strongly Republican areas. For all the attention that San Francisco and Los Angeles get, it's easy to forget that San Diego is a right leaning Navy town with a Marine base just to the north; a Marine base that is currently on fire, mind you.

...and I informed him that those people were being taken care of as well as any liberal.

For what it's worth

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Re: It's OK, just Democrat's homes that are burnin

pO157.

Wed Oct 24, 2007 at 08:36:07 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

To which he'll reply that the reason those evacuations were so orderly is that they were strongly GOP areas as opposed to NOLA which as we all known leans democratic.

Yeah, idiots like that can't lose in their own minds. Sell fulfilling prophecies and all that.

BTW, Welcome to TnT!

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Re: It's OK, just Democrat's homes that are burnin

ScotlandTheBrave.

Thu Oct 25, 2007 at 12:11:44 AM EST

4.50 (astute, astute)

...which I can quickly refute by mentioning that the strongly liberal area were evacuated with equal aplomb.

...and thanks for the welcome. I got sick of the trolling at Plastic. Who the Hell s this GreenPolicy twit anyway? I get the distinct feeling that he enjoys simply pissing decent people off.

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Re: It's OK, just Democrat's homes that are burnin

dzetetes.

Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 12:45:31 PM EST

3.00 (astute)

Nah, he's just an idiot.

In regione caecorum, rex est luscus.

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Re: It's OK, just Democrat's homes that are burnin

thefadd.

Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 04:47:19 PM EST

none

Yeah but that doesn't explain why he hates America.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

2

Re: Southern California's On Fire - Disaster Area

pO157.

Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 10:43:00 AM EST

none

How "big" of a fire is this compared to other recent ones? A quick wiki search suggests it may be worse than the previous "worse fire ever" the 2003 cedar fire.

I hope they get it under control soon, but my gut tells me it can only get worse before it gets better. Hopefully it will only be property that is destroyed.

7

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To Evacuate or Not?

Shy Elf.

Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 10:19:29 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

From your link, the 2003 fire destoryed 2820 buildings, and this fire is already over 1000, so it will be at least comparable in size.  Since firefighters concentrate on defending buildings, the number of buildings lost in fires is normally very small, and and only climbs like this when firefighters are overwhelmed.

Both the current fires and the Cedar fire are in San Diego County, which has seen huge growth in far suburbs in recent years.  This area has always burned regularly, but what is new is the number of homes there now.   Also, as new homes are placed higher on the mountains, they are placed in heavier and heavier vegetation.

It would seem that in areas which regularly burn like this it would make sense to plan out exactly where you're going to put in your firebreaks, and then keep those areas clear of large vegetation so that you can defend them when you have a fire.

In areas like this where the vegetation is light, I'm always struck by the anecdotal success of homeowners defending their homes with a garden hose while watching neighbors' undefended houses burn, as mentioned in the writeup.  The houses normally have an area of watered grass as a firebreak.  Homeowners need only put out occasional sparks falling onto the roofs to save the houses.  Obviously this changes depending on the specific vegetation near the house, but I would think they would be better off taking the 100,000 people they're evaucating and using them as a firefighting force instead.

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Re: To Evacuate or Not?

pO157.

Wed Oct 24, 2007 at 10:02:25 AM EST

none

Intriguing. I often wonder about what I would do in such a similar situation --- stay with a garden house and risk my life or go?

Could this be one of those game theory examples? If everybody in the city stayed and turned on their garden hoses (in addition to the fire brigades) wouldn't that tank the water pressure and nobody would be able to save their house?

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Re: To Evacuate or Not?

thefadd.

Wed Oct 24, 2007 at 03:07:29 PM EST

none

The problem with this fire in particular is that is hasn't been "occasional sparks" falling onto roof tops. From the reports I've heard these fires have been particularly difficult as it's been waves upon waves of embers being taken by the high winds and moved half a mile or more away and starting whole new fires.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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Re: To Evacuate or Not?

Shy Elf.

Wed Oct 24, 2007 at 10:17:05 PM EST

none

The difference is mostly in the firefighter to area ratio.  If you only have to protect the area of a house roof, you can keep spraying whatever drops on it, but when you're trying to protect an area several hundred yards wide and tens of miles long, they just don't have enough people to do it, and it becomes "waves of embers."

Certainly a lot depends on the proximity to large burning trees and the distance sparks are blown will depend on the wind, which has been unusually high this time.

5

Re: Southern California's On Fire - Disaster Area

pO157.

Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 04:49:22 PM EST

none

Here's a link to the county & city fire & emergency services scanners. Sounds crazy but the folks seem like they have a handle on everything.

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^ 5

Re: Southern California's On Fire - Disaster Area

tigerblue.

Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 08:51:12 PM EST

none

Funny, my friend runs that site, I helped him set up the streaming server a few years ago :)

I'm in central San Diego, and things seem to be stabilizing, but it's hard to be certain that the situation won't change in the next few days. The Santa Ana winds are calming, but the changing winds and weather patterns bring a great deal of volatility into the situation. Most of the burning today occurred outside of city limits. With any luck, tomorrow will bring more of the same.

Such crappy timing for a fire. This really isn't going to help the drought situation here.

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Re: Southern California's On Fire - Disaster Area

Shy Elf.

Wed Oct 24, 2007 at 11:52:17 PM EST

none

Such crappy timing for a fire. This really isn't going to help the drought situation here.

If there wasn't a drought you wouldn't have the fires like this in the first place.  The more trees you burn, the less water gets used by trees and the more runoff you get, so the fires actually help the drought situation slightly.

The drought situation really isn't that bad yet since San Diego gets so much of its water from the Sacramento area which hasn't had as bad of a drought, but with their supplies normally stretched tight, they have to cry wolf frequently in case this is the year the snowfall in the Sacramento River basin fails.

It doesn't help matters that they use the local water and the Colorado River water first even though they have large storage/flow ratios, and should be saved for emergencies.   Northern California water, which has a much smaller storage/flow ratio should normally be used first.

8

Must be the Season of the Witch

3fingerspointback.

Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 11:52:11 PM EST

none

Those damn October Santa Anas have done it again.  The situation was seriously exacerbated this year by gusts up to 50mph from desert winds, which would blow sparks hard-westward.  Right now, the damage toll stands at 1,750 buildings known destroyed.  Still less than the Cedar fire, plus we never had a frightening day of constant twilight this year like we did four years ago.

I've read some bitter online comments comparing backrubs-and-buffets at the Q to Downfall-of-Civilization at the Superdome, but the comparisons are not valid.  In Hurricane Katrina, the entire region was hunkered down, and there was really no place you could drive to what wasn't doing for itself.  More importantly, the communications infrastructure didn't get hit here like it did in New Orleans--evacuees knew where to go, and FEMA knew where they were going.  Finally, we're now in a situation where some people can leave Qualcomm Stadium and go home as other evacuees now arrive.

Finally, here you can find the best situation map of the fire, maintained by our local Public broadcaster KPBS.

(is 3fingerspointback)

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Re: Must be the Season of the Witch

pO157.

Wed Oct 24, 2007 at 10:23:25 AM EST

none

I've read some bitter online comments comparing backrubs-and-buffets at the Q to Downfall-of-Civilization at the Superdome, but the comparisons are not valid.  In Hurricane Katrina, the entire region was hunkered down, and there was really no place you could drive to what wasn't doing for itself.  More importantly, the communications infrastructure didn't get hit here like it did in New Orleans--evacuees knew where to go, and FEMA knew where they were going.  Finally, we're now in a situation where some people can leave Qualcomm Stadium and go home as other evacuees now arrive.

I have read the same things. I agree that the comparisons are not valid. The types of disasters are different, there is less trouble traveling and communications remain, as you said. Unfortunately, for the next 20-30 years we will have every single disaster in the lower 48 compared to Katrina whether such is valid or not.

17

At FEMA, We're Doing A Heckuva Job.

MayorBob.

Sat Oct 27, 2007 at 10:29:09 AM EST

none

Just when you thought that, at last, FEMA was actually going to end up looking competent in working with California officials to assist fire victims along comes the press conference that never happened.  FEMA hastily scheduled a press conference with the agency's deputy director -- so hastily they couldn't wait for the media to show up to do stuff like ask questions.  So, FEMA thought it would be a great idea to have staffers posing as reporters asking the questions.  The questions were hard-hitting and probing: "What do you think about FEMA's response so far?"  VADM Harvey Johnson's responses were forthcoming and incisive: "I'm very happy with FEMA's response."

The White House criticized the whole thing but wasn't really rapping anyone's knuckles at FEMA about it.  This from White House Press Secretary Dana Perino: "I don't think that there was any mal-intent. It was just a bad way to handle it, and they know that."  Amazing.  The spirit of Monty Python lives on.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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