Politics

Revisiting The Surge - Looking Back At Our New Way Forward

wetkarma.

Posted to Politics on Wed Nov 14, 2007 at 04:46:55 PM EST (promoted by 1fastdog). RSS.

In January of 2007, President Bush announced a new approach to the war in Iraq based on the concept of  "Clear, Hold and Build." Fundamental to the plan was an escalating in the number of troops deployed in Iraq and especially Baghdad - the escalation of boots on the ground was called The Surge. At the time, leading papers described the escalation as a further boondoggle while some TnT'ers came out on the record in support of the initiative.

Violent deaths in Iraq (especially in the last three months) have fallen sharply and so have casualties to coalition troops.

So approximately 11 months later, how do you think we are doing in Iraq? What are the key metrics you use to judge improvement and how are they trending?

Tags: written by wetkarma, edited by 1fastdog, Iraq, The Surge, casualties, war, politics, troop strength (all tags)

This story: 64 comments (4 from subqueue)
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4

"Too Soon To Tell"

uncarved block.

Wed Nov 14, 2007 at 09:15:35 PM EST

5.00 (brilliant)

   That was my vote, and not because I'm defeatist, or "want to see America fail", or what have you. The reason is simple: if you believe the insurgents and the terrorists are paying attention to US politics, the first time we're going to get a good idea how this is all shaking out will be after the primaries, when a car bomb or rise in ambushes could be perceived as making a difference in who gets elected. (The same goes for al-Quaeda, and Hamas, and a slew of other groups.) The next moment on the time line will be the general elections, and maybe the month after.
    If this seems needlessly long to you, I don't quite know what to say. Most of the war's supporters have stressed how long the whole process was going to take, and urged patience; decrying someone who's asking for patience now strikes me as unseemly, or worse.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

5

^ 4

Re: "Too Soon To Tell"

logan.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 01:34:29 AM EST

5.00 (brilliant, brilliant, brilliant)

Most of the war's supporters have stressed how long the whole process was going to take, and urged patience; decrying someone who's asking for patience now strikes me as unseemly, or worse.

Really? I recall the complete opposite. In the run-up to the war Bush and his supporters kept telling us that the war would be over quick, cost almost nothing, and would pay for itself through cheap gas. As a matter of fact, on May 1, 2003 Bush himself claimed that the war WAS over.

From Wikipedia:

On March 27, 2003, [Paul] Wolfowitz told a Congressional panel that oil revenue earned by Iraq alone would pay for Iraq's reconstruction after the Iraq war; he testified: "The oil revenues of that country could bring between $50 and $100 billion over the course of the next two or three years. Now, there are a lot of claims on that money, but ... We are dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction and relatively soon."

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that if Paul Wolfowitz actually believed that, then he's got the blue ribbon. No human has ever been more wrong about anything, ever. Four and a half years, 3729 dead American soldiers, tens of thousands of dead Iraqis, and $400 billion dollars after "Mission Accomplished", we're still in Iraq with no end in sight. As far as I can tell, the Bush Administration's exit strategy is to start war with Iran before the 2008 election, then spend the next ten years blaming the Democrats for the whole mess.

Patience? No. No more. I'm out of patience. We've given Bush four and a half years. How much time does he need? He's had a year longer than it took Roosevelt and Truman to win WWII and the only part of Iraq we hold is the US Embassy. Every few months Bush has announced a new strategy, usually that a new guy will be executing the old strategy, and that we've turned a corner. It's an apt metaphor, because we're just going around in circles. Patience? I'm out of patience. All Bush has accomplished is to spend other people's money, kill other people's children, wipe his ass with the Constitution, triple the price of gas, and make America the most hated nation in the world. Patience? I'll tell you what. You stand there and I'll kick you in the balls every minute or so. Every time a kick lands, you give me $100. Trust me, this is the best way to find Osama bin Laden. Haven't found him yet? Just have a little patience.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: killing a Republican is an act of self-defense.

-=Logan
Research, facts, a Republican needs not these things.

13

^ 5

Re: "Too Soon To Tell"

gerrymander.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 10:40:02 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

We've given Bush four and a half years.

No, you haven't. "Giving Bush time" implies both commitment during the referenced period, and an ability to revoke that commitment. Neither of these are true. For the former, you and your like-minded cohorts have bitched incessantly since before the first soldier set foot on Iraqi soil. As to the latter, the Democrats this term have to date brought 41 separate resolutions to end or substantially limit American force in Iraq to the floor; only one passed Congress, and that was vetoed.

He's had a year longer than it took Roosevelt and Truman to win WWII

He's also had two years less than the Democratic presidents in Vietnam, with more to show for it. What's your point?

15

^ 13

Re: "Too Soon To Tell"

Lou.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 11:15:43 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

I call bullshit.  So what that the dems put up 41 separate resolutions...Bush has been able to do pretty much whatever he wanted.  It's not like he's had any real opposition to his war (except in the polls of course...but your steely-eyed president doesn't believe in polls...he's gonna stick by someone else's guns, by cracky!)

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

20

^ 13

Re: "Too Soon To Tell"

logan.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 01:07:03 PM EST

4.66 (astute, brilliant, interesting)

"[Me} and your like-minded cohorts have bitched incessantly since before the first soldier set foot on Iraqi soil."

Yes, yes we have. Because we were right. We said up front the there was no evidence that Saddam had anything to do with 9/11, and as it turns out he didn't. We said that there was no reliable evidence that Saddam had WMDs, and as it turns out he didn't. Bush's crew all said it would be a quick victory and we all said that's what they said about Vietnam and about WWI. Lo and behold, we were right again.

But then, this is the standard tactic of the right: make outrageous claims about your ability, when someone disagrees, attack them, not their position. When they turn out to be right, claim that the reason you couldn't do the impossible task you said was going to be a cakewalk was that people didn't believe in you. Sure, our soldiers have the guns, the tanks, the bombers, but there's this drum circle in Eugene, Oregon, see, and they keep chanting "no war, no war" and they are SO powerful that our bullets turn into marigolds and our soldiers' body armor turns into tie-dyed hemp serapes and that's why we're losing. Winning! I meant winning! See how powerful Frog* and his friends are? They've brainwashed patriotic Americans like me who've seen how you can freely walk around Baghdad (with an escort of 100 troops, three Blackhawk helicopters, and a pair of Apache gunships) into briefly considering the concept that we're losing the war and that Iraq won't be the Maui of the Middle East by November 5, 2008. Damn, you, Frog!

So what's the trick? Close our eyes and wish with all our might? Click our heels three times and say "there's no place like Branson"? Go to an airport bathroom in Minneapolis and shout "I believe in fairies"?  

* Yes, that Frog. You can take the boy out of Eugene but you can't take Eugene out of the boy.

-=Logan
Research, facts, a Republican needs not these things.

22

^ 20

Re: "Too Soon To Tell"

gerrymander.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 02:14:09 PM EST

3.00 (obnoxious, astute)

Because we were right.

Only for the limited definitions you give above, and not even that without further qualification. There's no evidence that Saddam supported the 9/11 attack directly, but plenty of evidence that he had ties to al-Qaeda before the invasion (meetings and material assistance), and a plethora of evidence that al-Qaeda considered Iraq important after. Saddam didn't have WMDs, but he did have an infrastructure to gear WMD production up around/after the removal of UN sanctions, and a political plan to have sanctions removed -- a plan the same people as made up the core of anti-war activism were more than happy to support. Finally, the initial military phase was won, and decisively. The reconstruction was the problem, and that might very well have been made worse by anti-war agitation, which publicly revealed a divided US political mind to those who would take comfort from it.

In the meantime, of course, you castigated US troops for murder, even though the vast majority of civilian casualties were caused by terrorist tactics used by various insurgent groups. You repeatedly hyped the few examples where the US military broke the Geneva Conventions while ignoring the avalanche of cases where the Conventions were contravened by enemy factions. You pointed to every bit of news out of Iraq as a failure, even where solid, consistent progress was revealed (here, I'm thinking of the ground-up reconstruction of the Iraq Army). And on those occasions when the news turned against you, you shifted the goalposts until you could harp on the same line of misery and failure. (Civilian deaths are falling? Play up the dead soldiers angle! Soldier casualties decreasing? Complain that the war cost too much! Bush isn't changing tactics? He's stupid and single-minded!! Bush is changing tactics? He's ignorant and incompetent!)

Some humanitarian you are. But hey, if you want to feel good about helping enable the kinds of people who engage in the wholesale slaughter of civilians by car bomb, you're welcome to try. Just don't expect me to play along.

23

^ 22

Re: "Too Soon To Tell"

Lou.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 02:37:14 PM EST

5.00 (brilliant, astute)

The reconstruction was the problem, and that might very well have been made worse by anti-war agitation,

Agitation my ass.  Vietnam was protested with agitation...this war is protested with focus groups (both sides), blogs, cold calling and the occasional march.

Besides, if we can't "agitate" against what is wrong with the government, we might as well bend over and unclench as Donald Kerr would like us to 'cuz we are then truly fucked.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

35

^ 23

Re: "Too Soon To Tell"

gerrymander.

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 11:01:33 AM EST

none

this war is protested with focus groups (both sides), blogs, cold calling and the occasional march.

You neglect to mention the unindicted co-conspirators: the news media, the entertainment industry, and academia. Protesting the war became fashionable, with the support of the most vocal aspects of US society.

if we can't "agitate" against what is wrong with the government

Most of my objection isn't to the "what," but to the "how." I'm never going to say we shouldn't deplore, e.g., the abuses at Abu Ghraib prison. There's a world of difference between "this is like what Saddam did/the insurgents do; let's not become them" and "this is what monsters do; we are them." The former is a supportive, unifying message, but we rarely saw it. The latter is neither supportive nor unifying, and we were (and still are) beaten with it relentlessly.

36

^ 35

Too late

Lou.

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 11:19:37 AM EST

5.00 (brilliant, astute)

"this is like what Saddam did/the insurgents do; let's not become them"

This is a wise thing to think before you commit an atrocity.  Our nation has already stared into that abyss.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

42

^ 22

Re: "Too Soon To Tell"

yeller.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 04:49:50 AM EST

none

That's unmitigated horseshit. Every point you assert is a total lie. I challenge you to provide one cite.

47

^ 42

setting a low bar

gerrymander.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 02:06:46 PM EST

none

OK, here's one, regarding a link between Saddam's government and al-Qaeda prior to the 2003 invasion. We have a known al-Qaeda terrorist (Zarqawi) traveling to Iraq for medical treatment, at a time when sanctions were causing Saddam to divert medical supplies away from doctors and hospitals for military use or covert export. And of course, Zarqawi was an instrumental part of the insurgency.

So, care to recast that "total lie" charge?

48

^ 47

Re: setting a low bar

yeller.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 03:18:45 PM EST

4.00 (astute, funny)

That's been proven a total lie as well. Is the US government complicit for the September 11 attacks because the attackers lived in the USA? BinLaden used a toilet in Dubai on several occasions, ATTACK!

52

^ 48

Taking this one further

Lou.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 05:12:23 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

11 of the 19 attackers were from Saudi Arabia...but who did we bomb?  Of course, it's not polite to bomb the feller we hold hands with.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

56

^ 48

Re: setting a low bar

gerrymander.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 01:23:36 AM EST

none

That's been proven a total lie as well.

Look, pal -- you wanted a link, I gave you a link. If you think that's not good enough, provide evidence for your assertion which is at least as well-sourced as the WIkipedia link. The ball's in your court; put up or quit yer bitchin'.

57

^ 56

Re: setting a low bar

yeller.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 03:28:04 AM EST

5.00 (interesting, informative)

The only cite Wikipedia provides is the load of horseshit Powell dumped on the security council. Powell's allegations don't stand, there's no evidence at all, only wishful thinking and conjecture such as yours.

No thinking person would give any credence to that presentation. In Powell's own words "this is bullshit.".

59

^ 56

Re: setting a low bar

Shy Elf.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 09:42:57 AM EST

5.00 (informative)

From your own link:

A CIA report in late 2004 concluded that there was no evidence Saddam's government was involved or even aware of this medical treatment, and found no conclusive evidence the Saddam Hussein regime had harbored Zarqawi.

60

^ 59

Re: setting a low bar

gerrymander.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 10:31:39 AM EST

none

See my reply to 1fastdog below, Shy. We can argue about evidence as much as we like, but any explaination must take into account Zarqawi's presence and status in Iraq, post-invasion. The Senate report does that. The CIA's? Not so much.

63

^ 60

Re: setting a low bar

yeller.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 02:52:31 PM EST

none

The Senate report does that. The CIA's? Not so much.

Make your mind up, do you trust the CIA or not?

 

if you don't want to trust US intelligence sources, that's your call.

Despite this astonishingly tenuous assertion, you ignore the fact that Saudi Arabia has proven ties to Al Quaeda. If this is the only rationale you can provide for invading Iraq, then logic dictates that Saudi Arabia should have been first on the list, even if Zaquari was Saddam's lover.

64

^ 63

Re: setting a low bar

Lou.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 05:44:24 PM EST

4.00 (funny)

even if Zaquari was Saddam's lover.

It wouldn't have worked...not at least after Zarquari learned that Saddam was a swinger...even less so after Satan became Saddam's bitch.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

50

^ 47

setting a low bar. indeed.

1fastdog.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 03:56:22 PM EST

none

The key word in your link is "alleged" - and given the infamous quote about  "intelligence and facts being fixed around the policy" from the Downing Street Memo, any reliance on US intel from that period is a dubious proposition.

But for argument's sake, let's say Zarqawi was in Iraq as you're suggesting. What does that really prove? It certainly doesn't prove that there was any cooperation between AQ and Saddam; one guy supposedly receiving medical treatment does not constitute a link between two parties, both of whom should've been suspicious of the other, seeing as how they operated from different ideologies. Saddam was a tinpot tyrant who was insanely keen on not letting any party gather power - to the point that he routinely had those close to him murdered - so I don't really see him eager to help an outside group that could directly challenge him, and being that Saddam was representative of a lot of things that AQ despises, I don't see them as being likely to strike up an alliance with someone for whom Islam was nary more than an afterthought.
As for you original assertion:

but plenty of evidence that he had ties to al-Qaeda before the invasion (meetings and material assistance), and a plethora of evidence that al-Qaeda considered Iraq important after

al-Qaeda may've thought Iraq to be important, but that's irrelevant to the question of ties between the two. More importantly, there's no fruit to the first part of your claim. If there's "plenty of evidence" where in the hell are they keeping it? The fact is, there's no evidence; only allegations and wild-ass speculation from the same people who were so eager to fix the facts around the intelligence in the first place.

Somewhere in my soul, there's always Rock -n- Roll... Joe Strummer

55

^ 50

Re: setting a low bar. indeed.

gerrymander.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 01:19:38 AM EST

none

But for argument's sake, let's say Zarqawi was in Iraq as you're suggesting. What does that really prove?

It proves that there were sufficient connections between Saddam's government and al-Qaeda prior to the Iraq War to A) expedite the transfer of an internationally-known terrorist into a country with an extremely active (dare I say "Stalinist"?) intelligence service, and B) provide said terrorist with medical attention reserved for the military or otherwise well-connected. Taking into account the amount of trouble Zarqawi started post-invasion with the support of the Ba'athist Sunnis, the "well-connected" impression seems to have been borne out. And that gets us back to my initial assertion of Saddam providing al-Qaeda with meetings and material support pre-invasion. So.

given the infamous quote about  "intelligence and facts being fixed around the policy" from the Downing Street Memo, any reliance on US intel from that period is a dubious proposition.

Look, if you don't want to trust US intelligence sources, that's your call. But if not, you need to provide some rationale for what we know of Zarqawi's success within the insurgency post-invasion which also takes into account the insular nature of tribal Iraqi society made more so by being forcibly ejected from power. Whatever its suspected flaws, the Senate Report version does that.

41

The real question is ....

ckm.

Sat Nov 17, 2007 at 01:21:20 PM EST

5.00 (astute, brilliant)

...  do we really want to create another Afghanistan?   Because that is the choice we are talking about, regardless of whether you thought that attacking Iraq was justified or not.

If the US leaves, Iraq turns into a sort of post-Soviet Afghanistan mess, the kind of mess from which Islamic fundamentalism emerged.  Even worse, actually, since Afghanistan has no natural resources to fund anything (well, except for poppies).

What is preventing that worth?

That's the question everyone SHOULD be asking, rather than looking at how the past was 'wrong'.

It's not that I was pro-war or anything.  In fact, I predicted that what is going on now would happen (so did a lot of people) and I protested against it.  But that's all in the past, everyone needs to look forward, what will happen 10 or 20 years from now if a short-term pullout strategy is implemented?   Yes, I know it's a line that the administration has been perusing, but it's also real-politik.  And very cynical real-politik is what is need right now, not posturing for short term political advantage.

War is ugly, and the reasons why we are in Iraq are even uglier, but I am not willing to take the risk that 10-20 years from now, the blowback from leaving is going to come back to haunt us.   And, by all rights, I really shouldn't care, since it's not my children who are going to die dealing with it.

2

The Surge is an unqualified success

Some Guy.

Wed Nov 14, 2007 at 06:56:26 PM EST

4.75 (astute, interesting, interesting)

The Surge has one purpose: to buy political time for the occupation of Iraq.

It has succeeded.  Congress will fund the occupation at least until 2009.

You may recall that in the mists of ancient history (November 2006) the Democrats gained control of Congress, almost entirely due to public disgust with the war.  Nobody campaigned on a platform of escalating the war -- the debate was between "stay the course" and "draw down".  But escalation is what happened, and Congress voted to fund it.  The Petraeus-branded Surge buys time for more corners to be turned and more progress to be seen.   In early 2008, there will be a troop reduction to pre-surge levels, but that was going to happen anyway due to the army's policies on troop rotations.  It will be painted as a draw-down that has become possible as a result of success.  

The most vaunted success of the Surge -- the 'awakening' in Anbar province whereby Al Qaeda got kicked out by tribal leaders (f.k.a. insurgents) had nothing to do with the Surge.  It had to do with a change in tactics -- basically, the U.S. arming its former enemies and leaving them alone, along with Al Qaeda overplaying its hand and antagonizing the locals.

As for the stated purpose of reducing violence in Iraq: the Bush administration has not cared about that before, why would anybody imagine that they care about it now?  

6

reduction in violence is a big deal

wetkarma.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 07:37:22 AM EST

4.50 (astute, astute)

My perspective that increasing the number of people on the ground has accomplished in large measure the 'clear and hold' elements of the strategy. Unfortunately with little action on the political front, the build piece seems to be significantly missing.

I think looking to the next 12 months, my personal focus will shift from violence levels to economic metrics such as electricity availability, healthcare and oil production.

One thing is clear -- our troops will be in Iraq for the forseeable future.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

24

^ 6

semi-permanent occupation

1fastdog.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 02:57:37 PM EST

5.00 (brilliant, astute, astute)

One thing is clear -- our troops will be in Iraq for the forseeable future.

Which is why the surge, the war, and the whole damn shebang that makes up the clusterfuck that we call Iraq, is a total loser. Petraeus is planning on us being there for 10 tears. Think about it - he's saying it'll take 10 years before "real stability is at hand" - meanwhile, the temporary decline in violence has come at a god-awful price: '07 has been the deadliest year for our troops.

But the real test came over a lunch with Gen. David H. Petraeus, who used charts and a laser pointer to show how security conditions were gradually improving -- evidence, he argued, that the troop increase is doing some good.

Still, the U.S. commander cautioned, it could take another decade before real stability is at hand. Schakowsky gasped. "I come from an environment where people talk nine to 10 months," she said, referring to the time frame for withdrawal that many Democrats are advocating. "And there he was, talking nine to 10 years."

What the fuck good is a surge, if all it does is temporarily alleviate the problem? The surge goes away and the inevitable reappearance of the insurgents (now fresh and rested 'cuz they've been actively avoiding US troops) will be sure to follow, along with the inherent mayhem that follows them like stink on shit. We're currently no closer to a solution or an end to this madness now - despite whatever good tidings people are currently reading into this whole "the surge is working" fantasy - then we were at the beginning. All we're doing now is setting ourselves up for some kind of long-term occupation at enormous expense to the American taxpayer... Let's see a show of hands of those who think long-term occupation of a country rife with internal religious conflict and external anger at a foreign invader is a good idea. Anyone?

Somewhere in my soul, there's always Rock -n- Roll... Joe Strummer

25

^ 24

Re: semi-permanent occupation

wetkarma.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 03:49:30 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)


What the fuck good is a surge, if all it does is temporarily alleviate the problem? The surge goes away and the inevitable reappearance of the insurgents (now fresh and rested 'cuz they've been actively avoiding US troops) will be sure to follow, along with the inherent mayhem that follows them like stink on shit

I suspect this is where we disagree -- the surge and attendant 'awakening' among the Iraqi populace has decimated the hard core committed insurgents. In order to see a reversion to the previous violence levels, you are assuming that a US troop drawdown == a force drawdown from Iraq streets. Whereas every data point I'm seeing is that we hand over control to local forces when we pull out of an area. (see Basra).

I don't know what everyones expectations were in terms of occupation length, but even prior to the invasion I thought that we would have a -permanent- presence (a la Japan) in Iraq even after the country became 'stable'.

What it comes down to is this: What does victory look like? If spending huge amounts of capital automatically constitutes failure, then not only have we failed but we will continue to fail. However I think there are other useful standards that can be used. We deal with the situation as it is now, not on egregious strategic errors made in 2003.

At this point I personally -do- think that a long term occupation of Iraq is a better idea than withdrawing from the region. But then again I'm the one who wanted to attack Pakistan and Saudi Arabia rather than Iraq post-9/11..so perhaps my grasp on foreign policy is not all that aligned with what is perceived as possible.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

26

^ 25

Re: semi-permanent occupation

Lou.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 04:14:31 PM EST

none

the surge and attendant 'awakening' among the Iraqi populace has decimated the hard core committed insurgents.

I hope you're right, WK.  I think it would be really cool if the Iraqi people collectively said, "fuck you" to the the insurgents, thus causing decimation.  What I fear is the insurgents just melted back across the border into Iran and Syria...or just melted back into the populations (now, where have I heard that before?)  I hope these rat bastards are gone for good...but I'm not holding my breath.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

61

^ 26

Ethnic Cleansing Complete. Next stop Afghanistan.

Shy Elf.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 12:53:38 PM EST

5.00 (interesting, informative)

Given the debate in the U.S. at the moment about whether to continue military involvement in Iraq, I suppose it's understandable that the debate is mostly trying to spin recent events in Iraq as supporting exclusively one side of the this argument, but I think both sides are missing a lot of what is going on in Iraq by trying to frame events in this light.

First of all, the big picture is that the Iraqi government is increasingly seen as the Shia Iraqi government, and the determination of the Sunnis to have nothing to do with it at whatever cost necessary has only deepened in the past year.  This is confirmed by the total lack of ongoing negotiations between the Sunnis and Shia about the future if Iraq.  This means that our idea of Iraq as a unified democratic state is effectively dead.

The security situation in Iraq has unquestionably been getting better.  Most of this has nothing whatsoever to do with U.S. policies.  The three principal reasons for this are the growing consolidation of power by militias, to the point that they are able to act as de facto police forces, attacks by Sunni tribal militias on foreign Jihadist forces in Iraq, and the depletion of vulnerable targets as ethnic cleansing advances to the point that in the most violent neighborhoods, there are few people left living outside enclaves composed of their own ethnic group.

All three of these were well underway before Petraeus took over, but at least the first two have been helped along by his leadership, which as has been about as successful as was possible under the circumstances.  The biggest change under Petraeus has not been the increase in number of troops itself, or the "Surge" itself, but the change in force deployment to place U.S. forces in smaller groups deeper in Iraq, where they are more vulnerable but more effective.  If we only wanted our troops to be safe, we could have kept them all hidden away in large encampments, the way most of them were before Petraeus took over.  A spike in U.S. casualties followed by a sharp decline was in fact what Petraeus was hoping for from the start.

With regard to foreign fighters, now that they are no longer welcome in Iraq, they have been going instead to Pakistan, where efforts against them have largely stopped with the ongoing political crisis, as well as to Afghanistan, where the security station is again deteriorating.

43

^ 26

Re: semi-permanent occupation

wetkarma.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 04:50:27 AM EST

none

Most news reports which do report on the issue have noted that Al Qaeda in Iraq are being massacred.  Major papers are notably silent which says something as well.

The people we've killed are certainly not coming back -- the question is whether the local culture can be changed sufficiently so that the insurgency doesn't become 'endemic' to the local population. Once the majority of Iraqis take a dim attitude to Saudi's coming into their town/village/city to wage Jihad, a cultural tipping point will have been achieved.

My personal perspective is that we've won the asymmetric struggle for military control of Iraq. The current open question is whether political control can fall in line.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

1

Re: Revisiting The Surge - Looking Back At Our Ne

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Nov 14, 2007 at 06:50:14 PM EST

3.75 (brilliant, astute, informative)

What are the key metrics you use to judge improvement and how are they trending?
One key metric is how much borrowed money are we squandering in Iraq. By that measure, we're fucked.

3

^ 1

Elaborate Please

uncarved block.

Wed Nov 14, 2007 at 08:11:05 PM EST

4.00 (informative)

   Your brevity is baffling me. Is it the amount, or the use it is being put to that's the point of your dire conclusion?

    FWIW, one of my key metrics- that I don't recall mentioning before- was the level of infiltration, and not so much the casualties. As long as Iraqi police and military units are widely perceived as full of men willing to pass information along to other men with guns and bombs, security outside of American bases is likely to remain dicey, at best. The little news I've heard on that angle remains discouraging.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

7

^ 3

Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 08:37:25 AM EST

none

Your brevity is baffling me. Is it the amount, or the use it is being put to that's the point of your dire conclusion?
The amount.

8

^ 7

Re: Elaborate Please

Lou.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 08:51:53 AM EST

4.00 (astute)

So...you're cool with an unjustified war as long as it can be done on the cheap?

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

9

^ 8

Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 09:22:27 AM EST

4.50 (brilliant)

So...you're cool with an unjustified war as long as it can be done on the cheap?
Good question. You should pose that question to someone who supported Clinton's war in Serbia but opposed the war in Iraq.

10

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Re: Elaborate Please

Lou.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 09:57:44 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

Oh please...you can't seriously be comparing the two.  Now, if you had said the same thing about the war in Afghanistan...you know, that place that really did house the folks that attacked us, I might agree with you.  But comparing these two very different wars (different goals, different players, different death toll, different results) is just foolish.

And before you get off on a "Liberals are weenies and hate war" tirade, let me remind you that while we should work hard to avoid war, some conflicts are justified.  Serbia?  Hmmmm, let's see...massive ethnic cleansing, massive refugees, and oh yah...The same start point as a World War.  Yep...looks pretty justified to me.

Iraq?  Not so much.

(oh, and thank you for playing the Clinton card...again)

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

11

^ 10

Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 10:18:21 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

Serbia?  Hmmmm, let's see...massive ethnic cleansing, massive refugees, and oh yah...The same start point as a World War.  Yep...looks pretty justified to me
What's your definition of "massive?"

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Re: Elaborate Please

Lou.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 11:10:49 AM EST

none

Is 700,000 (est) enough for you?

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

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^ 14

Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 11:28:55 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

700,000 what? Refugees or ethnically cleansed?

17

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Re: Elaborate Please

Lou.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 11:33:33 AM EST

none

You don't think that being forced in refugee status is ethnic cleansing enough?  Or does rape and murder have to be involved?

Anyway, we're far off topic.  Maybe this deserves its own sub.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

18

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Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 12:50:24 PM EST

3.00 (obnoxious, brilliant)

You don't think that being forced in refugee status is ethnic cleansing enough?
Of course not. The refugees were mostly fleeing the war. (Do you have any idea how many of the 700,000 you mentioned became refugees only after Clinton began the war? Really, that's something you should look into.) Also, there were 200,000 Serbs who were ethnically cleansed out of their homes in Kosovo under the auspices of NATO. So it obviously wasn't ethnic cleansing in general that the Clinton Administration had a problem with.

In any case, stopping ethnic cleansing was not the justification used for the war at the time - it only came afterwards. (Sort of like how the goal in Iraq morphed from WMD to spreading democracy.) The reason given at the time was to stop the Serbian army's offensive against a terrorist organization and to "prevent a wider war." Given that fact, and given the fact that the Serbian government had agreed, in principle, to give in to one of Clinton's chief demands (increased autonomy for Kosovo), and given that the Serbs had indicated they were still willing to negotiate if the US would soften its position on a NATO occupation, do you still maintain that the war was justified?

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Re: Elaborate Please

Lou.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 01:10:19 PM EST

none

make a Kosovo sub and we'll discuss it.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

27

^ 21

Re: Elaborate Please

thefadd.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 04:56:18 PM EST

4.00

somebody should recruit Niall over from plastic to do one. I bet he could write it in his sleep. what's his sig--where in the world is Radovan Karadzic.

Here's a related one--is the US even trying to capture Bin Laden any longer? If not, why not?

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

28

^ 21

Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 08:11:25 PM EST

none

make a Kosovo sub and we'll discuss it
Not interested. The idea that going to war on the whim of the president is ever justified strikes me as extraordinarily foolish.

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Re: Elaborate Please

Lou.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 08:57:56 PM EST

none

Wasn't there a really cool movie about someone shot down behind enemy lines in a Kosvarian landscape? Hey wait...it was called Behind Enemy Lines.  It's a toss up whether I'll get it...it does have Gene Hackman in it...but it has Owen Wilson too...plus, Rotten Tomatoes said it sucked.  Guess I'll take a pass.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

33

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Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 07:43:52 AM EST

none

...it was called Behind Enemy Lines.  It's a toss up whether I'll get it...it does have Gene Hackman in it...but it has Owen Wilson too...
It sucked. The thing is, see, that Owen Wilson is the anti Gene Hackman. That is to say that, as much energy that Gene Hackman can inject into a movie through sheer force of talent, Owen Wilson can suck just as much energy out. Pile that on top of an insipid, unbelievable script and you have a real crapfest.

34

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Re: Elaborate Please

Lou.

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 08:10:21 AM EST

none

Yeah, that's what I meant.  Wow!  Gene Hackman...Oh. Owen Wilson.

Who the hell thought of casting him as a naval aviator, anyway?

Besides, I read some more reviews and it seems like the movie is filled with a lot of Rah! Rah! America rules! Jingoism.  And you know how much that can make a sensitive liberal such as myself cringe.  Maybe I'll pick up an Alan Alda movie.

I kid...Alan Alda sucks too...except for that science series he did on PBS.  That was pretty good.  No, I have a new Netflix waiting for me...Dead Men Don't Wear Plaid.

It's gonna be a great weekend.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

37

^ 21

Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 01:03:51 PM EST

none

By the way, I realize that in order to continue to claim the war against Serbia was "justified" you reject the historical facts (in this regard you're exactly the same as the neoconservatives who continue to claim the war against Iraq was justified), but I wonder what you make of the bombing of all those bridges over the Danube and the destruction of the headquarters of Radio Television of Serbia. Was the destruction of those targets necessary to stop the ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, hundreds of miles away?

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Re: Elaborate Please

Lou.

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 01:23:19 PM EST

none

Ummm, yes?  War sucks...but if I'm fighting someone and I really really need to win, I'll kick him in the balls.  Sometimes it's easier to win if you make your enemy weaker.  Unless I'm wrong, didn't we go after powerplants too?

Btw, how does it fall to me to explain war to a neocon?

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

39

^ 38

Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 04:37:36 PM EST

none

Sometimes it's easier to win if you make your enemy weaker.  Unless I'm wrong, didn't we go after powerplants too?
Sure. Power plants, cigarette factories, elementary schools, public housing, a bunch of television transmitters: all kinds of shit got blowed up. We kicked them in the balls, but good! I suppose, in your view, those all contributed to victory.

Btw, how does it fall to me to explain war to a neocon?
I'm not sure. To whom are you referring?

40

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Re: Elaborate Please

Lou.

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 04:45:03 PM EST

none

Well...if the neocons have taught me nothing, they have taught me that if you want to make an omelet, you gotta break some eggs.

But really...you seen kinda het up with this.  Make a Kosovo sub and we'll look into it.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

62

^ 10

Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 12:55:51 PM EST

4.00 (informative)

The same start point as a World War.  Yep...looks pretty justified to me
Hey, I just remembered something: the whole 'preventing a wider war' thing looks even more absurd when you consider that the Russians truly felt provoked over NATO's threats against Serbia. Also, remember the standoff at the Pristina airport?

44

^ 9

Re: Elaborate Please

yeller.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 04:50:40 AM EST

3.00 (funny)

Hey, look over there! Clinton's cock!

45

^ 44

Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 08:26:20 AM EST

none

Hey, look over there! Clinton's cock
Um, no thanks, but you go right ahead.

(Why, I wonder, do you feel compelled to try to start a discussion about genitalia when the topic is war?)

46

^ 45

War=sex

Lou.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 09:29:05 AM EST

5.00 (funny)

Not in a nice way...but there it is.  Long hard things, both big and small, spewing out their loads, climatic explosions, and death (the undeniable result of birth).

Also, don't forget the uniforms, clear lines of authority, and aggressive interrogation techniques for those who swing that way.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

49

^ 45

Re: Elaborate Please

yeller.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 03:32:47 PM EST

3.50 (astute)

Can you not see the irony of digging up past grievances as a point of hypocrisy, when your own support of Iraq is the definition of hypocrisy? If you lambast one yourself, how can you support the other?

There are many differences between the Balkans war and Iraq: The war wasn't started by the USA or the European powers. There was a real risk of war spilling out of the region. Europe learned their lesson about war and said enough. Kosovars actually needed assistance.

So for all it's relevance, you might as well have bought up Clinton's cock, which is implied by the wag-the-dog undercurrent of any discussion of the Balkans war by an american brownshirt.

51

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Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 04:27:18 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

Can you not see the irony of digging up past grievances as a point of hypocrisy, when your own support of Iraq is the definition of hypocrisy?
What the hell ever gave you the idea that I support the war in Iraq?

There was a real risk of war spilling out of the region
Oh, please. That risk was so small as to be irrelevant.

Europe learned their lesson about war and said enough
Then Europe should have taken care of the problem and the US should have stayed out of it.

Kosovars actually needed assistance
One might have said the same about the Kurds in Iraq, but that's not justification to go to war.

So for all it's relevance, you might as well have bought up Clinton's cock, which is implied by the wag-the-dog undercurrent of any discussion of the Balkans war by an american brownshirt
There appears to be only one person here who is obsessed with "Clinton's cock," and it ain't me.

53

^ 51

Re: Elaborate Please

yeller.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 08:20:32 PM EST

none

What the hell ever gave you the idea that I support the war in Iraq?

That's horseshit if ever I've smelled it.  Are you saying that couldn't go through your comments on Plastic and never come across your support of the war? One thing that can be guaranteed is when there's a topic critizing the GOP, you're there to hijack the thread and discuss Clinton.

Weasel-words and double speak. You just lie and lie.

54

^ 53

Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 09:37:27 PM EST

none

Are you saying that couldn't go through your comments on Plastic and never come across your support of the war?
Try it. Dumbass.

One thing that can be guaranteed is when there's a topic critizing the GOP, you're there to hijack the thread and discuss Clinton
Hikack? I presume that means going wildly off topic. Again: try to find an example.

58

^ 53

Re: Elaborate Please

zyxwvutsr.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 07:08:04 AM EST

none

By the way, I'll be happy to accept your ever lengthening silence as a tacit admission that you were utterly unable to find an example of my support for the war.

19

^ 8

Re: Elaborate Please

thefadd.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 01:00:55 PM EST

none

I was fine with Kosovo and I'd have been fine with Iraq if it hadn't cost so much. The only problem being that the entire reason for an Iraq war was to spend gobs of money. Sort of a cart before the horse thing.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

12

^ 1

Re: Revisiting The Surge - Looking Back At Our Ne

gerrymander.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 10:23:37 AM EST

none

There was a link wetkarma posted recently which casually equated the money spent on four years of the Iraq war with one year of universal health care -- but perhaps you have a better opinion of Congress' ability to decline from engaging in stupid, expensive deficit spending projects than I do.

29

^ 12

Re: Revisiting The Surge - Looking Back At Our Ne

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 08:18:03 PM EST

none

There was a link wetkarma posted recently which casually equated the money spent on four years of the Iraq war with one year of universal health care...
Let's see: about $2 trillion is spent on healthcare in the US each year. The story I linked above mentions $200 billion for war spending next year.

Doesn't add up.

31

^ 29

Re: Revisiting The Surge - Looking Back At Our Ne

wetkarma.

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 04:23:13 AM EST

4.00 (informative)

Allow me to add some context to the discsussion.

Gerrymand is referring to this Plastic QL I posted some weeks back where the chairman of the house budget committee (Spratt- D) said:


$2.4 trillion is enough to:
· Provide every college freshman in the country with a free, four year education at a private college or university
· Provide health care coverage to every American for one year
· Pay off 26% of our current national debt  

Now he MEANT to portray it as the Iraq War was expensive but unintentionally showed that 'true' universal healthcare is horrendously expensive. (The 2.4T figure was based on estimates inclusive of what we'd spend next year for the war), whereas 2.2T is a commonly bandied figure on what we spend on healthcare currently in an entire year.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

32

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Re: Revisiting The Surge - Looking Back At Our Ne

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 07:36:22 AM EST

4.00 (informative)

The 2.4T figure was based on estimates inclusive of what we'd spend next year for the war
The linked story says the $2.4 trillion is what will be spent through 2017. (That, according to the GAO report, was "[u]nder the most intense scenarios of US military activity" and includes debt service.)

Anyway, it's things like this that cause me to have no respect for the Democrats. If they want to discuss Iraq and fiscal responsibility, it's completely disingenuous to take an item of spending spread over ten years and make a comparison to what could be purchased in a single year.

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