I subscribe to various intelligence reports as part of my job. [Side note: Its interesting that I'm reliably told that organizations like the CIA does too...reading a classified report is [allegedly] a lot like reading the NYT or WaPo]. In any event, I found this piece on events in Pakistan to be quite insightful.
Pakistan: No large scale demonstrations or acts of civil disobedience have resulted in response to General Musharraf's "martial law-light" declaration on Saturday. Musharraf's Prime Minister suggested that general elections scheduled for January 2008 might not be held for a year, without providing a justification. Police and paramilitary Rangers have arrested some 500 politicians, jurists and attorneys, and activists, again without warrants or due process of law under the Pakistani constitution.
Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan on Saturday before martial law-light was imposed and is now in residence in Lahore, the chief city of the Punjab. She has denounced the General and his lackeys.
The supposedly ousted Supreme Court and provincial High Court justices in all four provinces plan to hold court as usual on 5 November, directly challenging the General. The Pakistan Bar has called for a nation wide strike. Expect disorder.
The General, who is not legally the President under Pakistan law, has relied on police and paramilitary forces to impose his will. He has not put the loyalty of the Pakistan Army to the test, apparently because the Army swears allegiance to Pakistan and its constitution, not the Chief of the Army Staff. Even as an interim president he has no authority to make policy, but then the General has suspended the constitution.
Pakistan is now experiencing the results of another of Musharraf's outbursts of petulance which are always characterized by poorly thought out, short term spasms that undermine his authority and respect for Pakistan in the long run.
In 1999, when he staged his first coup, the only issue was his tenure as Chief of the Army Staff. The duly elected civilian government of Nawaz Sharif ordered his dismissal as was its constitutional right. Musharraf refused to follow the rule of law. Incapable of considering other options, he overthrew the government primarily with the assistance of the Army Corps commanders. This kind of fuzzy thinking is symptomatic of senior Pakistani generals.
The weekend coup was much the same as 1999, except that Musharraf did not call on the Army for support. Once again the only issue is Musharraf's tenure. His resort to martial law-light is a testament to his inability to cope and limited political skills. In short, he ran out of ideas for staying in power within the rule of law.
Several press leaks indicate the Supreme Court had prepared an order to be released on 5 November declaring unconstitutional Musharraf's candidacy for President. That is the best explanation for the timing of his pre-emptive strike against the Supreme Court.
When Musharraf submitted to re-election in a blatantly rigged and extra-constitutional procedure, his term of office as President expired. Despite re-election in an extra-constitutional procedure, he has not taken a new oath of office. He is at best an interim figurehead who has arrested the Chief Justice, the one official who might have validated his re-election. His present claim to be chief of state has no legal basis in Pakistani law, except guns. Long time students of Pakistan hoped the nation had outgrown this kind of boring military tantrum.
As Chief of the Army Staff, the General has no authority over any branches of government or the provincial governments. His assertion that he and his cohorts, such as the Prime Minister, are the dispensers of rights and privileges is laughable. Pakistan looks like a banana republic. For the second time in his career, he is a constitutional usurper who displays no respect for the rule of law and has proven inept in the fundamentals of running a government, such as controlling the spread of Islamic insurrection. As always, Musharraf is fighting the wrong battles.
The consequences of the General's immature impulses are serious. Internally, he has delivered a bonanza of credibility to Benazir Bhutto. If he does not kill her, she will be his nemesis. He has made her the icon of Pakistani democracy, while he is the most hated official in Pakistan, according to Pakistani polls last month. Her challenge is gauging how to use her new power without suffering the fate of her father.
Note: Benazir's father, Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was as close to a statesman as Pakistani politicians get. He was pivotal in ending the 1971 war and preserved West Pakistan from dismemberment by the Indian Army after the ignominious defeat of the Pakistan Army. Nevertheless, on 5 July 1977, Bhutto was arrested by Army Chief General Zia ul Haq in a bloodless coup. Despite the official story that Bhutto was hanged for corruption, other accounts are far more persuasive that Zulfikar Bhutto died under torture, accidentally. To cover up the atrocity, Zia ordered the Pakistan Army to hang and photograph a corpse -- no matter what CNN reports.
General Musharraf once again has polarized the country so he can keep wearing a uniform. He is waging war against the rule of law, oblivious to the fact that no modern economy can survive without reliable administration of civil laws, especially contract law. In waging war against lawyers, he risks destruction of the economy and erosion of respect for law and order while giving a pass to the real threats to stability.
The largest internal beneficiaries of Musharraf's latest scheme are the Islamists. Musharraf is fighting the traditional politicians when he has proven utterly inept in controlling the greatest threats to Pakistan. He has given the Islamists the best argument yet as to why the devout should not trust western ways. NightWatch has reported previously Pakistani survey data that proves that civilian governments have had much more success than military governments in thwarting the spread of Islam. It is no exaggeration to assert that the number of madrassahs has exploded under Musharraf, according to Pakistani official data.
No source has reported the arrest of Islamist politicians. No protests against Musharraf have emerged from Islamist parties. They wait and plan.
The internal wild card is the Pakistan Army. Musharraf has not put its loyalty to the test, but one STRATFOR source reported the Army opposes his move. Upward mobility in the Army has been stifled while Musharraf has remained Chief of the Army Staff. Despite his extensive use of promotions as patronage, the Army leadership knows the Musharraf regime has reached its end. It is also sympathetic to Islamist issues. The enlisted and field ranks are anti-American.
Externally, the Indians gambled on Musharraf more than is customary. He now has justified their enduring suspicion that Pakistani generals cannot be trusted. Fortunately for them, they have not reduced forces in Kashmir or along the border; have not become more vulnerable by trusting Musharraf and remain vigilant about spill-over effects from Pakistan's instability. They will be slow to trust another military government in Pakistan, but have an opportunity to help Benazir Bhutto unseat Musharraf.
Iran should be sending bouquets of gratitude to Musharraf for providing yet another crisis in US foreign policy that will complicate America's Iran policy.
For the US, one eastern pillar of US policy in the Islamic world has pretty much collapsed. The election of Hamas in Palestine collapsed a western pillar. Democracy is pretty much a dead issue and commitment to the war on terror is less important than the General's personal survival.
An inward focused Pakistan will be less capable of stopping cross border raids by the Afghan Taliban. Even in the unlikely event that Musharraf gave the orders, the Pakistan Army has shown it is incapable of suppressing the tribal insurrection. It is a tribe-based army itself. The Pakistani Taliban get a reprieve because no serious operations against them are likely until the political leadership in Islamabad clarifies.
For new South Asia analysts: Pakistani generals never know when it is time to leave politics, step down from high office and return to barracks. They always overstay their welcome. The weekend events prove the argument. Initially hailed as saviors of the country, all four military dictators since independence have been overthrown, assassinated or left office in disgrace. If Musharraf is not killed, he will certainly leave in disgrace. Martial law always and everywhere indicates the regime has scraped the bottom of the barrel of policy ideas and come up empty.
