When we last saw the Libertarian Party, they nominated Michael Badnarik for President in 2004. Michael Badnarik's previous greatest political achievement was that he was "elected Executive Vice-President of his dormitory at Indiana University, and became a BMOC ('big man on campus') known for getting things done." That such an unaccomplished hack/loser could get his party's nomination for President pretty much tells you all you need to know about the Libertarian Party in 2004. It was not an organization geared toward winning anything, or solving any problems; it was just a debating society that occasionally managed to put some of its people on the ballot. If they had managed to get Ron Paul back then, or some comparably credible libertarian, they might have drawn some serious votes from Bush. But no.
So now, entirely without their help, the Libertarians now have an ideological Libertarian running for President. Although he can't win, he is at least having attention paid to him, and that can help shift the debate. It would be colossally stupid to ignore this. What are they going to do instead? Apparently the front-runner for the nomination is Wayne Allyn Root, "the most recognized sports oddsmaker and prognosticator in the world." Wow, that will make libertarianism look credible.
As a Kucinich booster, I was naturally inclined to take interest in Rep. Paul's candidacy when it was announced--I'm always fascinated by "second-tier" candidates with fervent supporters. I wasn't old enough to vote in 1988, so it took actual research to read up on Representative Paul, and to my delight, his positions (then and now) are as weird as advertised. Sure, he's got some "common sense" ideas--who isn't for fiscal responsibility, 100% literacy, and higher American wages? However, some of his economic ideas (gold standard wtf?) are bizarre to me, and as a hedonist pagan secularist, his social ideas are obviously not to my preference.
I consider myself pretty good at guessing which weirdos and dark horses are going to get media attention--not if they will win, mind you--and if memory serves, I correctly predicted Dean in 2004, and when this cycle started (essentially the day after the 2006 elections), I warned my friends to keep their eyes on Huckabee, Paul, Biden, and Richardson. So far, that was an easy call--Biden and Richardson are fatally flawed candidates, but their wealth of knowledge and experience was sure to get them occasional ink. I figured that Huckabee would get press for fire and brimstone--I was way off there, but he isn't disappointing me with his newfound frontrunner status and his history of completely insane statements and actions.
With Mr. Paul, I figured he would get some attention as the former Libertarian candidate with the "unique" hook of being the lone, (or most outspoken) Republican against the war. What I didn't anticipate was the firestorm of wackos that he would attract. Sure, I should seen it coming. The precedent for weird politicos in the television age was set by Lyndon Larouche, but in recent times, Ross Perot, Pat Buchannan, Howard Dean, and Ralph Nader have all proven that you can harbor a certain political base using crazy people. I don't know how I missed it, but Mr. Paul has managed to attract a cabal of 9/11 conspiracy theorists, neo-nazis, economic...gold-standardizers, and black helicopter people. Add in the lovely subtlety of massive Internet publicity and spambots, and you've got yourself some cache, brother!
I have no idea if Ron Paul is going to get any votes, though. How many people really support him? And will they show up to vote? I have very little faith that Paul will do well in Iowa, but New Hampshire is a fascinating study: There are a lot of crazy redneck Yankees up there, and they are pretty damn likely to throw a monkey wrench into the election season, whether Democrat or Republican. But what good would finishing 2nd in New Hamshire do Ron Paul? What good would winning do him? Attracting a "win" with 30-something percent of the primary vote in a state with a sample size of a quarter of a million votes isn't all that stunning. Hell, it seems that every other election, the winner of New Hampshire is not the nominee[1]. So someone please tell me what momentum[2.] Ron Paul really has. I don't see him as a spoiler in the primaries or the general--unless you count him finishing ahead of Romney, Huckabee, Rudy, or Fred Thompson "spoiling". (apologies to T. Tancredo and D. Hunter) I also don't see him siphoning votes off of any potential GOP winner, even Rudy.
For sport, I would like to see anyone present me with a viable election strategy for Mr. Dr. Representative Ron Paul.
- Modern winners of the NH primary who have not become their party's nominee include: 1992: Sen. Paul Tsongas (D-MA), 1984: Sen. Gary Hart (D-CO), 1972: Sen. Edmund Muskie (D-ME), 2000: Sen. John Mcain (R-AZ), 1996 Pat Buchanan (R), 1964, Ambassador Cabot Lodge (R)
- The only instance I can remember of a candidate not winning New Hampshire and still benefiting was Bill Clinton in 1992, who had to overcome "rumors" that he cheated on his wife and was a sleazy dirtbag--Clinton came in 2nd to Tsongas, and was declared the candidate with all the momentum, because New Hampshire voters decided that he couldn't be that bad. NH victories didn't fare so well for McCain and Buchanan.
A few articles have run recently (both here and on Plastic) on the GOP crackup between the economic conservatives and the religious conservatives. Libertarians have a window of opportunity to 'mainstream' their views by creating a new voting bloc with the economic conservatives - a party that is fiscally conservative and socially liberal.
Without an overhaul to the way American elections work, Libertarians at best can only influence what is discussed on the national stage. If we can shift the debate from gay marriage/abortion to balanced budgets and unfunded mandates this is a step in the right direction.
The genius of Ron Paul's campaign is that libertarian ideas are being raised prominently on the internet and finding welcome reception. The next generation of power brokers will be wired and much like Ayn Rand's objectivism shaped a generation of Fed policy, libertarian influence on american politics has a chance to become pervasive. As more and more people become of voting age and are presented with the bills (social security/medicare/deficit spending) of the past generation - libertarianism stands a chance of being the idea that people will look to for the solution.
Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.
It's registration only....
Not entirely sure what Ms. Sue's link is to as I couldn't be bothered with recalling my (or plastic's) registration but you might as well go right to the source.
Heh. Seems the Libertarians just might have a chance.
Here's a link to what I think is the complete LAT story, which I'm sure had a little something to do with yesterday's big haul. Hey, I predict this guy's got the makings of a politician in the future that awaits us. Enjoy.
It looks like both Kucinich and Huckabee have supporters trying to institute "money bomb" days for their candidates. Kucinich's flopped, while Huckabee "Freedom Day" is upcoming.
It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.
Our boy Ron Paul just took a look at the political arena, and realized that the American people are too damned simple-minded to accept more than two choices, unless they're talking about breakfast cereal. Good/bad, black/white, gay/straight, plus/minus - they want everything defined into two simple choices, "us" and "them." Even when there are obvious alternatives to the binary equation as phrased (disinterested, gray, bisexual, divided by), they want to pigeonhole everything into easy "a or b" choices.
Republican/Democrat.
The American political system has calcified into a system. while frustrating in its oversimplicity, and mindless in following its two political leanings, which is strongly resistant to change of any kind. The average American is content with the blandness of processed cheese when there is an array of flavor possibilities a few feet away, and buys cases of thin, mildly-acidic beer where the overwhelming flavor is water, when there are rich-tasting, boldly-colored headier brews just a little farther down the aisle.
Although there have been minor internal changes within the parties, you have to go back to the 1860s to find a president who wasn't either a Democrat or a Republican. And then, if you discount "Democratic National Union" or "Republican National Union" as just being splinters from the main parties, you have to go to 1850 to find Millard Fillmore as the last elected Whig.
Ron Paul bowed to the inevitable, and realized that, as a Libertarian, he would be unelectable. So he became a Republican. The choice was obvious, but remains a sad comment on American life.
It's like "Night of the Living Republican." The idiots are right outside, and they want to eat your brain.