I'm in a bit of a conundrum when it comes to 2008. I take seriously the potential problems that a moderate Republican faces (brought up in the linked article), but if that moderate Republican president faces a Democratic Congress, I think it can work. The problem is that if I vote for Giuliani or McCain or Romney in '08, I can't know for sure whether that session of Congress will still be dominated by the Democrats - and beyond that, there's the specter of the 2010 session. That said, I really favor divided government...so, as usual, there's no good answer. If the Democrats put up a strong, experienced candidate (i.e. not Edwards or Obama - as much as I like their platforms, neither one has enough experience to deal with the sorts of crises the next administration will have to deal with as a result of cleaning up after Bush), I'll probably give her/him my vote, but otherwise, assuming a moderate Republican gets the nod, I may go back to the GOP.
I've already posted some of this over at Plastic, so here's the short version: a candidate doesn't have to be a mix of Washington, Reagan and Clinton in order to win-- all he (or she!) has to be is better than the other guy. Neither McCain or Rudy might excite the base, but they have to vote for one of them, eh? Turnout may set record lows, but one of them will win. After that, the candidate (for both parties) is practically guaranteed 40% support- I think even Carter got that much- so the goal is getting to 49% of the electorate overall, and having the best lawyers in case of a recount.
Will the social issues drag Giuliani down? Not if they come from the Democrats or the media, because conservatives- the group that will determine the primaries, to be precise- are self conditioned to tune them out. What will sink the mayor is if someone who the New Right will listen to (Dobson? Savage? Malkin? I don't have a name at the moment) sets out to make a big stink out of his past foibles. This will depend on how hardball the RNC wants to get, and whether they decide to stick with the guy who's been wooing them for the past six years-- in short, whether party continuity should trump other concerns (maybe even winning.) It's far enough out that a change is possible; if the party leadership is still backing McCain in January 2008, Rudy will be in a ton of trouble.
Another thought, a new one since the previous post, is that Giuliani is better positioned to overcome the conservative habit of hero worship undercutting the next candidate. The prime example is Bush/41, who never could get over the hump of "not being Reagan", even if he did win in 1988. (Nixon following Eisenhower is an earlier instance, and without Watergate whoever had tried to follow up Nixon could have had a tough go, though we'll never know for sure.) Those pix of him on 9/11 may, in the end, be the 1% advantage that pushes Giuliani ahead of McCain in the minds of undecided Republican voters.
More later, maybe, but it's off to work.
Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras
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You're 5 foot nothin', 100 and nothin'
Fri Mar 02, 2007 at 02:10:08 PM EST
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"Neither McCain or Rudy might excite the base, but they have to vote for one of them, eh? "
No they don't, they can stay home. I know I won't be voting for either one, even if the Democrats nominate the dreaded Hillary.
"What will sink the mayor is if someone who the New Right will listen to (Dobson? Savage? Malkin? I don't have a name at the moment) sets out to make a big stink out of his past foibles"
As wetkarma notes below, what will sink Rudy are his political record and actual beliefs, which at the moment most people outside of New York don't know about.
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Unclear
Sat Mar 03, 2007 at 10:59:44 AM EST
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Sorry, that bit was unclear-- it should have read, "Neither McCain or Rudy might excite the base, but they have to vote for one of them in the primaries" The general election, as my reply to port1080 shows, is a whole 'nother beast. I suspect your stance of not voting for a 'pure' Republican in the face of a Hillary presidency will be a minority view if Giuliani is the candidate-- HRC has been just too polarizing in the past to think she won't bring out party unity at the ballot box.
Oh, and there's a name now leading the Rudy-bashing: Ann Coulter. Whether she'll get any company remains unclear. In any case, Republicans are shaping up to face the same problem Dems faced in 2004: purity or victory? My money is on the latter,though not without reams of paper and gallons of ink spilled anguishing over a foregone conclusion.
Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras
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Re: Unclear
Sat Mar 03, 2007 at 06:11:13 PM EST
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There might be a lesson in the fact the Democrat's choice of victory over purity didn't actually result in a victory. I hate to use the stupid political insider jargon, but It's unfortunate and unhealthy the primary process has become so "front loaded".
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The Lesson?
Sat Mar 03, 2007 at 09:21:53 PM EST
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Yeah, the way I see it, Dems could have gotten crushed with Dean, but instead made a race of it with Kerry. The narrowest re-election margin since 1916 ain't too shabby if you have to lose.
"Front loaded"? How about "continuous"? Once politics became firmly ensconced in the entertainment industry, I don't see any other way the trend could have gone. The whole political climate is fairly toxic; I see the primaries as a symptom, not a cause. But alas and alack, if you dislike the way the free market has developed, folks start calling you dirty names like "Communist" and "liberal."
Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras
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Re: Rudy's Secret Weapons, Part 2
Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 02:10:42 AM EST
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Uncarved Block, I see a slightly different dynamic at work, and at this point it hardly matters, but I think you're onto something. After the 1980 election the conservative wing of the Democratic Party took over the national structure and managed in 24 years to lose six presidential elections and control of both houses of Congress, while betraying the core principals of the party base.
Those of us who saw the FDR coalition as something worth keeping together have chafed with the DLC jerks in charge. I think the same dynamic has at work in the Republican Party. Just as the right wing used the Goldwater presidential race to begin making the Republican Party what it is today, I suspect that the beaten-down group of folks who used to be called liberal Republicans are planning to use RG's campaign to move the party in the opposite direction.
January 20, 2009. Justice becomes possible.
Once the south finds out about his pro-illegal immigrant and anti-gun positions, and the libertarians review his anti-free speech record, 'America's Mayor' run for the WH will inevitably falter.
Then of course there is "small" stuff like his marital infidelity and the farmersville garbage scandal. All this man has going for him is 9/11..and considering the tarnish that the Republican's have applied to that event, I'm not sure if that is a platform anyone can run on.
Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.
"Use a clear subject. Personal attacks and name calling are discouraged"
Whassa matter? Doesn't Coulter read TNT?
I would like to see RG get the nomination if only to watch that drug-addled psychotic twerp gyrate herself around to voting for him.
January 20, 2009. Justice becomes possible.
