Politics

Bloomin' Bloomberg!

pO157.

Posted to Politics on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 01:19:41 PM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

In a simple administrative move last week, Michael Bloomberg changed his political affiliation from Republican to unaffiliated, thus kicking off widespread speculation about a potential run for the White House in 2008.

Within a few hours of the Mayor of New York City's move, political commentators were openly wondering if he would soon enter the race as the 19th candidate (although there are dozens more, depending on who is counting).

Bloomberg, the 142nd richest man in the world as of 9/06, is a self-made billionaire estimated to be worth at least $6Billion, although some estimates put the number at up to four times this amount. Although he was a lifelong democrat, his run for mayor occured on the Republican ticket in which he spent about $100M of his own fortune for the run.

If he does decide to run as a 3rd party man, there are already fears he would throw the election to the Republicans due to his moderate positions which align with the democrat platform. However, others say he could split votes from moderate republicans if somebody like Giuliani gets the party nod. In any event, opinions are mixed. He is already being compared to Perot by some commentators, or as a breath of fresh air, and lampooned by some as a barely competent mayor, but nowhere near a qualified presidential candidate.

So far, official democrat response to the news has been muted, although Hillary Clinton was quoted as saying: "I am not surprised by anyone leaving the Republican Party these days."

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by pO157, 2008 Election, Bloomberg, Michael Bloomberg, New York City, New York, Republican, Democrat, Independent, 3rd Party Candidate, Fat Stacks of Cash (all tags)

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Re: Bloomin' Bloomberg!

thefadd.

Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 02:45:41 PM EST

none

At least some Democrat managed to make a witty at the expense of the Republicans over this one -- why I continue to appreciate the Clintons. I don't know that I'd term Bloomberg a breath of fresh air but I'd certainly welcome him into the debate. He's a pretty puzzling candidate and I don't know which side he'd pull more votes from. I'd support in theory and be okay with him as President but but I certainly wouldn't vote for him over Clinton or Obama.

make it rain you nappy headed ho's

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Re: Bloomin' Bloomberg!

port1080.

Tue Jun 26, 2007 at 01:05:01 PM EST

5.00 (interesting, interesting)

He's a pretty puzzling candidate and I don't know which side he'd pull more votes from.

I think it really depends on how the race shapes up.  If the Democratic candidate appears to be populist (i.e. anti-business) and the Republican candidate appears to be more moral-conservative and less business conservative, that's what would give Bloomberg the best shot (however, since the most likely Republican candidates are all well received by big business, I don't see that happening).  Here are my guesses based on the top candidates right now:

Edwards / Bloomberg / McCain - favors Edwards (social conservatives have nowhere to go, so aren't a factor.  Bloomberg / McCain split pro-biz vote)

Edwards / Bloomberg / Giuliani - favors Edwards (Ditto, replace "McCain" w/ "Giuliani")

Edwards / Bloomberg / Thompson - favors Thompson (Thompson's social conservative cachet draws conservative southern democrats, Bloomberg siphons pro-biz dems)

Obama / Bloomberg / McCain - favors McCain (Obama & Bloomberg come across as too "northeastern", McCain able to appeal to South / Midwest).

Obama / Bloomberg / Giuliani - favors Obama (social conservatives have nowhere to go, so aren't a factor.  Bloomberg / Giuliani split pro-biz vote).

Obama / Bloomberg / Thompson - favors Thompson (Obama & Bloomberg come across as too "northeastern", Thompson able to appeal to South / Midwest).

Clinton / Bloomberg / McCain - favors McCain (Clinton & Bloomberg come across as too "northeastern", McCain able to appeal to South / Midwest).

Clinton / Bloomberg / Giuliani - the New York trifecta! - this one is most puzzling to me, but I think it favors Clinton because she can play the experience card.  Otherwise the three candidates are strikingly similar...

Clinton / Bloomberg / Thompson -  favors Thompson (Clinton & Bloomberg come across as too "northeastern", Thompson able to appeal to South / Midwest).

-----------------------

So, looking that list over, the Democrats are favored in four of the nine cases and the Republicans get the better end in the other five.  Overall it's a pretty even split, especially since the "all New York" option would be so wide open.  If we just look at the current front runners, that is indeed the most likely option - so all we can say right now is that, at the moment, there's no clear advantage to anyone.  I really don't think Bloomberg can win, however, unless both parties put up fairly extreme looking candidates.  

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Re: Bloomin' Bloomberg!

thefadd.

Tue Jun 26, 2007 at 02:15:29 PM EST

none

I think you're selling Bloomberg short. No one took Perot seriously cause he had charts, talked funny and his ears were huge. Bloomberg has some of Perot's money plus more charisma, better money raising skills and at least one elected office to hang his hat on. And Perot still came dangerously close to making it happen. Convince Hagel to be his running mate and Bloomberg would clean up against Obama and McCain. The Dems and Republicans would have to put forth Clinton or Thompson of those currently in the running in order to hold their own.

make it rain you nappy headed ho's

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Re: Bloomin' Bloomberg!

pO157.

Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 08:54:45 AM EST

none

Well, it is moderately attractive because if they could get a viable third party formed out of all of this mess that would be A Good Thing. But, I'm not sure Bloomberg is a real exciting candidate for me yet.

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Third Party Candidacy's Are Easy.

MayorBob.

Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 09:32:58 AM EST

5.00 (brilliant)

Establishing a viable third political party not so much.  The 20th and now the 21st century have already seen any number of third party candidacies which managed to scrape together enough votes to qualify for federal money.  But putting together a viable political party is damned tough.  That's because, no matter how much of a charge we get from voting for Wallace, Anderson, Perot, Nader, and now putatively Bloomberg, real politics really begins at the local level.  And I'm not even talking Congressman or Senator, I'm talking city councilman, state representative, county commissioner, etc.  For that you need a message or theme or mission that ties the party together from top to bottom, commitment to do the hard work of finding people interested enough in what the party has to offer to sign aboard to work for it, and the money to fund the campaigns of the grass root candidates you're going to run around the country.

When was the last third party formed that ever achieved enough influence and support to get anyone elected?  I guess the Libertarian or the various Conservative parties have made some inroads, but even their success and profile in American politics is so weak that their national candidates are nothing more than a footnote in national elections.

Of course, part of the reason viable third party candidacies don't make the transition over to viable third political parties is that the Democrats and the Republicans are, relatively speaking, large and amorphous.  So large and amorphous they'll coopt the message the third party candidate had in the last election to make part of their current platform and without an overarching mission and minus any real back up to the charismatic (or slightly loony in the case of Perot) third party candidate, the movement just gets sucked into the quicksand of the two major political parties.

Not living in the Big Apple, I really don't have a clue what Bloomberg stands for.  But, if all he's bringing to the table is his name and a billion or two in funding for his campaign, don't be surprised to add him to the list of third party candidates who didn't end up igniting any real flames.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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Re: Third Party Candidacy's Are Easy.

eminem enterprises.

Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 01:32:28 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Don't you need committed people to make get on the ballot in every state? Nader and Perot (who was more charismatic than Bloomberg, and more of a visionary as to how to get a simple but strong message across) had the theme or mission you talk about that aroused others to join the cause.

I've checked out Bloomberg's website, and it's pretty thin gruel right now. He's not going to get 33 1/3% of the electoral college vote on a platform of preventive medicine. I'm not sure competence is a winner after eight years of Bush, because virtually anyone else would look more competent.

Hmm, what burning themes could ignite a strong third-party candidacy? Single-payer health care reform ... out of Iraq now ... global warming ... tax the rich to pay for education ... immigration enforcement/Lou Dobbsism generally? Which of those would Bloomberg support?

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Re: Third Party Candidacy's Are Easy.

MayorBob.

Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 02:13:34 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Yes, committed people are definitely a requirement to effectively launch a third party candidacy and I'm not sure if Bloomberg has the charisma to attract said committed people.  What he has is money, power, and the relative obscurity of exactly what his main principles are.  The question really is what's on his mind.  Does he think he can buy his way into the White House as an independent candidate?  And does he feel, if he turns that trick, that he could govern as president without a party organization in Washington to turn to?

The common wisdom has it that he's filthy rich, bleeding cash, and will wittingly spend over $1 billion to get elected.  But will he?  Note that when he wanted to become mayor in New York, he didn't do it as an independent.  He was a lifelong Democrat who registered as a Republican when he realized the Democratic field was too crowded.  He spent openly as a candidate, but as a Republican candidate.  Say what you might about Bloomberg, but he's always been a savvy businessman and you have to ask would a savvy businessman see the wisdom of spending over $1 billion with no guarantee of getting what he's paying for?

But, if he is interested in doing such a thing, he should adopt every strong and socially progressive goal that neither the mainstream Democrat or Republican parties will touch with a ten foot pole.  Then, of course, the real trick happens should he manage to actually get elected to see if he can get any of those goals translated to legislation by a Congress composed of Democrats and Republicans.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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Another Option

uncarved block.

Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 11:48:04 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Does he think he can buy his way into the White House as an independent candidate?

<snip>

he's always been a savvy businessman

    Which makes me wonder if Bloomberg is actually angling to win it all, or play king maker and throw the election- if possible- to which ever candidate can offer him the better deal later on. Who Perot hurt or helped in 1992 is still an open question for a lot of political advisers, if their C-SPAN appearances are any guide. Given the closeness of the last two elections, it's possible that a swing of as low as 2% could decide the outcome. Bloomberg may not be able to win, but he might be able to swing that kind of influence. (Especially if the race ends up between Hillary and McCain, figures that don't exactly thrill all sorts of voters.) At the very least he'd be able to frame the debate between the two final candidates, because he won't be as easily dismissed as Nader or Perot were in the media. Would that be worth a billion to him? Heck, who says that would take a billion to pull off? 300 million might do the trick . . especially if there's some sweetheart deal after the election is over.

    Too cynical to be possible? Sure. But sometimes you have to wonder :)

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

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Re: Third Party Candidacy's Are Easy.

pO157.

Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 08:53:07 AM EST

none

Hmm, what burning themes could ignite a strong third-party candidacy?  

A big ol' bank account with too much to spend.

Well, that appears to be his major qualification, and that of a lot of politicians these days.

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