Huckabee beat McCain among Republican voters. It took Independents to put McCain over top in South Carolina. In states where Independents cannot vote, McCain will not win. In southern states where Independents can't vote, McCain will lose badly. Huckabee will still win in most southern states, and McCain will still struggle against Romney in many northern states. He hasn't won this nomination by any means, and he is "front runner" only because media likes him better than any of his competitors. Fox reflects widespread conservative distaste for McCain. I don't think he can win it all.
As for Romney, who won Nevada easily, he remains only candidate in race with real money to throw around, and he can't be counted out yet by any means. In states where fundamentalist Christians don't account for majority of Republican primary voters, once McCain starts dropping he will be in best position to pick up pieces, Mormon religion or no. Conservative Republicans like him, although I can't figure out why given that he has changed his position on almost everything to run for presidency. How can they trust him? Still, polls show non-fundamentalist conservatives mostly do, probably because he has positioned himself to represent fiscal conservative and pro-business portion of Republican coalition.
Hillary Clinton starts to look inevitable again. If she can get most of Mexican vote and female vote even when unions push Obama, Obama probably can't pull it off. Obama keeps talking to Republicans and Independents, which won't work for him any better than it works for McCain to talk with Independents and Democrats. Clinton looks unstoppable in New York, New Jersey, and California, and she will be way ahead in delegates by evening of 5 February. She looks like she dodged bullet in New Hampshire and will now push on to nomination even though she remains intensely polarising figure in American politics. She will need life insurance for Vice President, and I'm not sure Richardson will be enough. Maybe she needs Obama for VP, just as I thought Obama needed her when I thought he would win in New Hampshire.
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Re: Semi-live observations
Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 11:40:36 PM EST
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I didn't post that I think that Senator McCain is the eventual GOP nominiee. I surmised that among the contingent of on-air FOX news personalities that are openly rooting for Governor Huckabee, they are primarily concerned with McCain, and they seem to think that there is an opening for the Fred Thompson voter drifting to Huckabee, which is horseshit, since Thompson repeatedly attacked Huckabee in the debates, and is an old friend of McCain likely to throw his support behind him after he bows out.
It does appear to be shaping up to a McCain vs. Romney battle, but pending Rudy's comeback/explosion and Huckabee's persistence after February 5th, it is hard to prognosticate exactly what will happen.
As for Senator Clinton, I would hold off on coronating her until after the voting--there still is plenty of time for her or Bill to destroy it all for themselves. The next news cycle is going to contain a slew of news stories about Bill getting more involved in the campaign, essentially running a proxy campaign against Obama, forcing Obama to parry attacks from both Clintons. Obama is in a bind because he can't send out his wife (no matter how competent she is and delightfully wicked she can be) because it will make him look weak. Obama would be better served to dial up a real heavyweight to take on Bill's ever-increasingly asinine rhetoric. I for one would love to see Al Gore endorse Obama, and then debate Bill Clinton on television about why. Having Gore's support would seal the deal for Obama with the party faithful, and the Clintons wouldn't be able to counter it.
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Re: Semi-live observations
Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 09:03:00 AM EST
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I didn't say you thought McCain will become nominee, I was responding to pundits who now put him ahead of pack because of South Carolina's role in choosing Republican nominees since 1980. But I found your remarks about Fox News' preference for Huckabee very revealing. McCain doesn't make evangelicals or conservatives comfortable. Slander campaign against him in South Carolina by various Republican conservatives can't be ignored. Rush Limbaugh saying that McCain would destroy Republican Party makes it seem like certain hard-core Republican conservatives will not accept McCain any more than they will accept Giuliani, although I admit Limbaugh hates Huckabee too. I guess that puts him firmly in Romney's camp now? How humorous given Romney's record in Massachusetts.
Thompson and Huckabee went for same demographic; even Thompson endorsement of McCain wouldn't necessary transfer all of those votes to him. Fox was probably right that many Thompson voters will drift to Huckabee if Thompson pulls out no matter what Thompson has to say about it. Still, I agree with you that 5 February will tell tale, and guesswork before then really doesn't resolve anything.
Media says that Democratic race has become two-way struggle between Clinton and Obama, but if Obama can only count on blacks, young people, independents, and upper middle class, he won't win Democratic nomination. I consider him Democratic Party's McCain, trying to reach across aisle, "unite Americans", and pull independent voters. That makes him better choice to win in November, but much weaker choice to win nomination against hard-core polarising Democrat like Hillary. Obama needs some heavyweights all right, but I just don't see him getting them.