Politics

McCain, Clinton, Romney Triumph

profwhat.

Posted to Politics on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:23:53 PM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

The U.S. presidential race tightened up Saturday when John McCain won the South Carolina primary, while Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton (kind of) won the Nevada caucuses.

Huckabee's loss to McCain further drew his candidacy into doubt and made his surprising Iowa win look like more of a fluke.  South Carolina has a high concentration of evangelical Christian voters, who supposedly make up his base, yet it wasn't enough.  Fred Thompson's showing was so poor that the media has now placed him on political suicide watch.  Meanwhile, the vaunted power of the Culinary Workers Union was insufficient to carry Obama to a win in the popular vote in Nevada, although he is expected to win one more delegate than Clinton nonetheless.  (One precinct in Las Vegas resolved a tie by drawing cards).  Finally, Mitt Romney won the Republican caucuses in Nevada, although hardly any candidate other than Ron Paul made a serious effort to campaign there.

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by profwhat, election, primary, Republican, Democrat (all tags)

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1

Semi-live observations

Acefantastik.

Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 11:00:30 PM EST

5.00 (brilliant)

I've watched about all the live news I can take.  Here are the two things that amused me most:  1. Watching many commentators on FOX attempt to figure out a way that Huckabee can still beat McCain--as if Governor Mormolympics is going to quit anytime soon.   2. Pat Buchanan explaining that his sister and Tom Tancredo had a conference call in which Gov. Romney won Tancredo over on the immigration issue.   Hey, if Mitt Romney can secure a compound in Utah, why not the whole Mexican border?  Its perfect!

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Re: Semi-live observations

novy.

Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 11:24:12 PM EST

5.00 (informative)

Huckabee beat McCain among Republican voters. It took Independents to put McCain over top in South Carolina. In states where Independents cannot vote, McCain will not win. In southern states where Independents can't vote, McCain will lose badly. Huckabee will still win in most southern states, and McCain will still struggle against Romney in many northern states. He hasn't won this nomination by any means, and he is "front runner" only because media likes him better than any of his competitors. Fox reflects widespread conservative distaste for McCain. I don't think he can win it all.

As for Romney, who won Nevada easily, he remains only candidate in race with real money to throw around, and he can't be counted out yet by any means. In states where fundamentalist Christians don't account for majority of Republican primary voters, once McCain starts dropping he will be in best position to pick up pieces, Mormon religion or no. Conservative Republicans like him, although I can't figure out why given that he has changed his position on almost everything to run for presidency. How can they trust him? Still, polls show non-fundamentalist conservatives mostly do, probably because he has positioned himself to represent fiscal conservative and pro-business portion of Republican coalition.

Hillary Clinton starts to look inevitable again. If she can get most of Mexican vote and female vote even when unions push Obama, Obama probably can't pull it off. Obama keeps talking to Republicans and Independents, which won't work for him any better than it works for McCain to talk with Independents and Democrats. Clinton looks unstoppable in New York, New Jersey, and California, and she will be way ahead in delegates by evening of 5 February. She looks like she dodged bullet in New Hampshire and will now push on to nomination even though she remains intensely polarising figure in American politics. She will need life insurance for Vice President, and I'm not sure Richardson will be enough. Maybe she needs Obama for VP, just as I thought Obama needed her when I thought he would win in New Hampshire.

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Re: Semi-live observations

Acefantastik.

Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 11:40:36 PM EST

none

I didn't post that I think that Senator McCain is the eventual GOP nominiee.  I surmised that among the contingent of on-air FOX news personalities that are openly rooting for Governor Huckabee, they are primarily concerned with McCain, and they seem to think that there is an opening for the Fred Thompson voter drifting to Huckabee, which is horseshit, since Thompson repeatedly attacked Huckabee in the debates, and is an old friend of McCain likely to throw his support behind him after he bows out.  

It does appear to be shaping up to a McCain vs. Romney battle, but pending Rudy's comeback/explosion and Huckabee's persistence after February 5th, it is hard to prognosticate exactly what will happen.

As for Senator Clinton, I would hold off on coronating her until after the voting--there still is plenty of time for her or Bill to destroy it all for themselves.   The next news cycle is going to contain a slew of news stories about Bill getting more involved in the campaign, essentially running a proxy campaign against Obama, forcing Obama to parry attacks from both Clintons.   Obama is in a bind because he can't send out his wife (no matter how competent she is and delightfully wicked she can be) because it will make him look weak.   Obama would be better served to dial up a real heavyweight to take on Bill's ever-increasingly asinine rhetoric.     I for one would love to see Al Gore endorse Obama, and then debate Bill Clinton on television about why.  Having Gore's support would seal the deal for Obama with the party faithful, and the Clintons wouldn't be able to counter it.

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Re: Semi-live observations

novy.

Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 09:03:00 AM EST

none

I didn't say you thought McCain will become nominee, I was responding to pundits who now put him ahead of pack because of South Carolina's role in choosing Republican nominees since 1980. But I found your remarks about Fox News' preference for Huckabee very revealing. McCain doesn't make evangelicals or conservatives comfortable. Slander campaign against him in South Carolina by various Republican conservatives can't be ignored. Rush Limbaugh saying that McCain would destroy Republican Party makes it seem like certain hard-core Republican conservatives will not accept McCain any more than they will accept Giuliani, although I admit Limbaugh hates Huckabee too. I guess that puts him firmly in Romney's camp now? How humorous given Romney's record in Massachusetts.

Thompson and Huckabee went for same demographic; even Thompson endorsement of McCain wouldn't necessary transfer all of those votes to him. Fox was probably right that many Thompson voters will drift to Huckabee if Thompson pulls out no matter what Thompson has to say about it. Still, I agree with you that 5 February will tell tale, and guesswork before then really doesn't resolve anything.

Media says that Democratic race has become two-way struggle between Clinton and Obama, but if Obama can only count on blacks, young people, independents, and upper middle class, he won't win Democratic nomination. I consider him Democratic Party's McCain, trying to reach across aisle, "unite Americans", and pull independent voters. That makes him better choice to win in November, but much weaker choice to win nomination against hard-core polarising Democrat like Hillary. Obama needs some heavyweights all right, but I just don't see him getting them.

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Re: Semi-live observations

profwhat.

Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 05:53:10 AM EST

none

According to CNN's exit poll, Huckabee got 32% of the Republican vote while McCain got 31%.  That does not show a decisive weakness for McCain; it's very close.  While it did take "independents" to put McCain over the top, remember that in South Carolina an independent can be about as conservative as the staunchest Republican in New England.  So overall, I think McCain is in great shape.

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Re: Semi-live observations

novy.

Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 08:51:17 AM EST

none

Also according to CNN's exit poll, Huckabee got 35% of self-described conservatives to 26% for McCain, and Thompson's 16% came almost entirely from voters who would otherwise have selected Huckabee. Thompson campaigned for same voters in same parts of state that Huckabee did, and concentrated his extensive fire almost exclusively on Huckabee. I recognise that pundits now say race has come down to McCain and Romney, with McCain ahead, but Romney still leads delegate counts and Huckabee may yet win more southern states if and when Thompson drops out of race. (President Thompson, get used to it? No, I really don't think so.) If Romney could cut vice presidential deal with Huckabee, I would put them squarely ahead of McCain.

Please don't misunderstand me. McCain remains most likable Republican from my perspective, and at least he doesn't believe in torture, but I don't think US needs another Republican president in 2009 and McCain has to be considered their best shot. That explains why I seem to root against him.

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whoops

gerrymander.

Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 11:53:31 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

OK, so maybe my "President Thompson" post a while back was a bit premature.

Oh, well.

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Re: whoops

Acefantastik.

Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 12:46:40 AM EST

3.00 (funny)

So are you going to support the eventual GOP nominee, or are you getting on the Bloomberg/Hagel express?

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Re: whoops

gerrymander.

Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 01:40:51 AM EST

none

Enh. I'm not sure. If Hillary takes the Democrat nomination, probably. It it goes to Obama, I just might sit this one out.

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Re: McCain, Clinton, Romney Triumph

Shy Elf.

Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 07:14:43 AM EST

4.00 (interesting, informative)

The Washington Post poltical column on this is very good.

With 98 percent of the vote counted, Clinton led with 51 percent to 45 percent for Obama (Ill.). Former senator John Edwards trailed far behind with four percent. However, although Clinton captured the popular vote, Obama edged her out for delegates at stake, taking 13 to her 12, according to an Associated Presss analysis.
...
The disparity between the raw vote total and the delegate apportionment is centered on the fact that Obama beat Clinton in the state's sparsely-populated northern reaches and more rural areas -- a statewide showing that left him with a narrow delegate victory if not a popular majority.
...
Nevada Democratic Party Chair Jill Derby issued this statement tonight: "Today, two out of three Nevadans who caucused chose a Democrat instead of a Republican for president. That is an overwhelming majority vote for a new direction. Just like in Iowa, what was awarded today were delegates to the County Convention. No national convention delegates were awarded."
...
The Democratic race had grown increasingly turbulent in recent days, with legal maneuvers and allegations of voter disenfranchisement traded by the Clinton and Obama campaigns. Clinton suffered a setback late in the week when the state Supreme Court ruled that nine mobile precincts located on the Las Vegas strip were legal; many of the workers in casinos were represented by the Culinary Workers Union Local 226, which had endorsed Obama.

Despite the support of the Culinary Workers, it was Clinton who dominated the nine Strip casinos -- winning Bellagio and Paris among others. Obama won only Caesars. Turnout on the Strip was far lower than predicted in early estimates -- evidence that in this, the first presidential caucus ever held in Nevada, the universe of voters was emintently changeable.

Isn't this the reverse of what happened in Iowa?   Wasn't Clinton popular in rural areas there?

What are the Democrats doing bragging about the turnout of the caucuses while they refuse to release numbers and the Republicans release them?

Nice work trying to disenfranchise your own voters, Hillary.  Does anyone know how Caesars is different from other casinos?  The closest I've been to Vegas is a ski trip based out of Reno.  I remember how everyone at Squaw Valley refused to get off the exceptionally crowded traverse routes because they were the only thing they could ski.  It's the only time I've been on an official marked ski route where the easiest way down required you to jump of a six foot cliff twice.

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Re: McCain, Clinton, Romney Triumph

Lou.

Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 12:59:34 AM EST

none

McCain, Clinton, Romney...and?  Is it me,or does it seem we're short a horseman?

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

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Re: McCain, Clinton, Romney Triumph

Acefantastik.

Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 01:11:08 AM EST

4.00 (funny, funny)

RON PAULZ IS TOTALLY WINNING TEH MONEYS AND THE MEDIA WON'T REPORT IT!!!!1!

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Re: McCain, Clinton, Romney Triumph

wetkarma.

Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 02:40:39 AM EST

none

I think whats even funnier is the way broadcasters contort themselves into ignoring Ron Paul.

This isn't the first time that Paul's actually showings are buried in the ticker.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

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Well, For Fox At Least

uncarved block.

Tue Jan 22, 2008 at 01:30:50 PM EST

4.50 (interesting, interesting)

the answer seems clear. Are they conservative? Certainly, but I think the more important factor is that the network, at least from this keyboard, is anti-liberal. Any person or story that deviates too far from the "evil Left vs virtuous Right" narrative will simply be ignored as long as possible-- forever, if circumstances allow. Since Paul's positions can't be condensed into a thirty second, ready for prime time caricature, his campaign successes will always be a bit embarrassing to Ailes and crew. Until Ron Paul follows Perot's template and starts buying infomercials, he's not going to get any loving from the big media on his side of the aisle. (Maybe he could lobby someone at CNN to attack him full time, which would finally drive the Fox conservatives to defend Paul, but right now there's no financial incentive to do a "Ron Paul is dead" story at any of the major media outlets.)

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

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Re: McCain, Clinton, Romney Triumph

pO157.

Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 01:02:27 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

Sadly, I am starting to believe this. This is not the only major recent publication which mentions Giuliani as a major candidate, despite getting trounced repeatedly by Paul. Mr. Paul (notice the picture gallery at the top of 'all' the GOP contenders) is ignored completely.

This is stupid. How can the media claim to be unbiased if they are ignoring the campaign of a person consistently getting support in the mid-teens, yet provide coverage to minor challengers such as Giuliani?

If this is what they would do to a person running for the GOP nomination, then a 3rd party nominee has no shot at all. Depressing.

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Re: McCain, Clinton, Romney Triumph

pO157.

Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 10:38:43 AM EST

none

WTF was up with that? At one point Paul was 2 votes behind McCain whilst the votes in Nevada were being reported in, yet McCain was listed with 13% and Paul 12% on the giant CNN pie chart. When Paul finally did end up clinching 2nd they really did not refer to him much except to make the occasional derisive commentary along the lines of "Oh, look at <so and so>. Only X% and finishing below RON PAUL."

Look, I recognize he has no chance at winning the national election (possibly due to lack of news coverage) but if he is considered so non-viable, then how come Giuliani, et al get tons of coverage the night of primaries when they only collect a few percentage points?

Obviously The Man is keeping him down. Just sayin'.

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Re: McCain, Clinton, Romney Triumph

novy.

Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 02:54:20 PM EST

4.33 (interesting, astute)

Being anti-war was bad enough, but being anti-Federal Reserve counts as completely intolerable. Most of US media belongs to seven or eight giant media companies. Those media companies all have at least one bank representative on their Boards, and each of those bank representatives understands that economic power of bankers originates with national banking. In early US history, national banking was most important issue: Andrew Jackson became hero to many southerners and westerners because of his decommissioning of Second Bank of the United States. Today, almost no one knows or says anything about national banking and no one can talk about it without being blackballed. Libertarians get considered revolutionaries by powers-that-be primarily because they would tear down that edifice, and they get shunned by media lest they raise Fed or fiat currency related issues to blissfully-unaware public.

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