Politics

Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

novy.

Posted to Politics on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 11:13:58 AM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

Obama's campaign purchased national television airtime on CNN and MSNBC in preparation for South Carolina primary. Hillary Clinton's advisers call this "a clear and blatant violation" of agreements between Democratic candidates not to campaign in Florida. No, Obama was not stumping in Florida, nor had he bought any local television advertisements, but Clinton claims that since 92% of Florida households get CNN, and Obama's campaign knows this, his purchase of airtime amounts to violating his pledge.

Clinton's statement was as follows:

The Obama campaign today began airing paid television advertisements in a national cable buy that include advertising in the state of Florida. There is no question that these ads are a clear and blatant violation of the early-state pledge that Senator Obama and the other leading Democratic candidates signed last year. The early state pledge was crystal clear in its prohibition against any kind of campaign activity (outside of fundraising) in states that do not adhere to the DNC calendar. There is no ambiguity. Among the list of prohibited activities are "electronic advertising that reaches a significant percentage of the voters in the aforementioned state." (According to Nielsen, there are 6,6 million TV households in Florida that receive CNN through either local cable systems or satellite dishes. This represents 92% of all Florida TV households.) The Obama campaign knows this, but has chosen to violate the pledge regardless. Just last week the Obama campaign snubbed the people of Florida in a memo that stated that Florida did not matter in the nominating process. After consecutive losses in New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada, they appear to be changing course. Senator Obama's flagrant disregard for the pledge that he signed is disturbing and calls the integrity of the pledge into question.
Obama's camp responded that pledge was promoted by early voting states rather than national party and that
"Both national cable networks told us it would be impossible for us to run advertising nationally that excluded only Florida. For that reason we consulted with the South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Carol Fowler who told us unequivocally she did not consider this to be in violation of pledge made to the early states."
The Clinton campaign says they "aren't ruling anything out" in terms of whether or not to abandon their pledge not to compete in Florida: "If they are trying to upend the playing field, it's our obligation to explore the playing field--all options are open."

Considering no Democratic delegates will be seated from Florida, why all this hubbub? And considering Clinton's name was on ballot in Michigan even though Democrats penalised Michigan in same manner they penalised Florida and even though both Obama and Edwards stayed off that ballot, why did Clinton make such big deal about national ads that Floridians might incidentally see? If Clinton will play this dirty with Obama, one can only imagine what she will do to her Republican opponent if she wins her party's nomination.

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by novy, politics, Clinton, Obama, Democratic Party, primaries (all tags)

This story: 19 comments (1 from subqueue)
Post a Comment
4

The final debate before Super Tuesday...

Lou.

Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 07:34:27 PM EST

4.00 (funny, funny)

Clinton: I think it's obvious that my opponent is pandering to a press that is afraid to call a spade a spade.

Obama: Oh bitch, please!

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

1

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

novy.

Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 01:07:47 PM EST

3.66 (illiterate, informative, interesting)

Almost everything about Clinton-Obama race begins to look ugly and contemptible. Debate in South Carolina was full of lies, more from Clinton than from Obama but enough from Obama to make many of those who hope he wins uncomfortable. Bill Clinton chuckles that he hopes rhetoric will "mellow out", but then adds "we're going to have a few arguments -- this is a contact sport. Sometimes when you have a family feud it's harder than when you have a feud with someone in a different clan because you have to dig deeper to find where the difference is." I come away with feeling that for Clintons, like Vince Lombardi, "Winning isn't everything; it's the only thing". Clintons seem like Democratic version of Bush family, in that if you don't play on their team, they trash you. After 16 years of harsh partisanship, must there really be 4 or 8 years more?

This story of strategy in South Carolina, taken from Wall Street Journal, also gave me pause. Must Clintons really always be on side of corrupt southern traditions? Do some people who prefer Obama like him better because he comes from Illinois and not from southern state? Or does it all come down to race versus gender, as Hillary Clinton seems to prefer? No matter how you cut it, Clintons' claim that they can get down in mud and rassle with Republicans on their own terms seems repellingly true, as they chose to get down in mud and rassle with Obama (or anyone else who would have challenged them). Why must US choose its leaders in this manner?

2

^ 1

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

port1080.

Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 03:01:34 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

No matter how you cut it, Clintons' claim that they can get down in mud and rassle with Republicans on their own terms seems repellingly true, as they chose to get down in mud and rassle with Obama (or anyone else who would have challenged them). Why must US choose its leaders in this manner?

Well, it's the length of the election cycle, I think. Having the campaign start over a full year before the elections, and having an open primary system instead of a parliamentary system, means that there are (in the beginning) more viable candidates running for the top seat than in most other countries, and the large amount of time means that it's difficult to just "keep it to the issues", especially with 24/7 press coverage from the cable news networks. You can hardly blame Clinton for going dirty - if she doesn't, someone else will, and certainly the Republicans will, when it comes to the general election.

The only way to fix it would be to completely reform the primary system and push up the primary dates to much closer to the general elections. If it was up to me, I'd like to see the primaries be held on the first Tuesday in September, have them all be held on the same day on every state, have them actually be primaries (no more caucuses!), have them all be "open" so independent voters aren't disenfranchised during the primary, as they currently are in many states, and have the primaries be conducted through instant runoff voting (which would help solve the "problem" of having so many candidates on the ballot for the primary vote). Then we'd have a nice two month campaign period, which would compress things enough that campaign fundraising would become somewhat less of an issue, and would cut down on the amount of slack time, giving both the candidates and the news networks more motivation to focus on the issues and less time to think up dirty tricks and personal attacks.

This idea is nice because it's actually "possible" - it wouldn't require any sort of constitutional amendments or major changes in the law; all it would take would be an agreement between the two parties on how to schedule the primaries. If they both agreed to march in lockstep on the issue, they could pretty much bully the states into changing their primary rules to follow along (by locking out their delegates if they don't obey). But, of course, this will never happen, because there are too many vested interests in the current system for us to ever see any radical change. As usual, we're lumbering into the 21st century with an 18th century political system...

3

^ 2

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

novy.

Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 03:39:36 PM EST

4.50 (interesting, brilliant)

Power of parties thwarts any meaningful change. Their desire to hold on to reins in all respects shapes primary/caucus process. Why does Iowa or New Hampshire always come first? Because they feel like it. Why don't they set up four or five bunches of primaries (like Super Duper Tuesday, with 10 to 15 states voting on each day) so that process takes more states into account? Because they don't feel like it. They dominate electoral process even though they have no constitutional position, and courts make sure that nothing can be done to challenge them.

You call your idea "actually possible", yet without any major changes in laws or constitution, Americans accept 18th century political system by virtue of inertia. For example, why should parties accept role of Independents? Because it would be "fair"? Fairness didn't play any role when Democrats decided no delegates would be seated from Michigan or Florida because those states wouldn't accept ridiculously slanted existing system. Putting Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary first every time has never been fair, but it has always been that way, so tough.

Blaming length of election cycle, when its growing length has been dictated by advantages of getting in early enough to raise money and line up support, seems unreasonable. Changes in primaries would shorten election cycle, but they won't be made. Maybe US would be better off electing some third party guy like Perot or Bloomberg, just to weaken parties.    

5

^ 3

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

port1080.

Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 08:11:59 PM EST

5.00

Maybe US would be better off electing some third party guy like Perot or Bloomberg, just to weaken parties.

I agree, and I disagree. American parties are actually relatively weak, compared to parties in parliamentary systems. While they have some power over issues such as primary scheduling, the overall power of the party is very curtailed, because the parties ultimately are only one factor influencing who wins in party primaries (as compared to parliamentary parties, which have absolute control over who runs on their lists). This is even more true when it comes to Senators and members of the House who have already won their seat - since sitting Congresspersons overwhelmingly win reelection, they have much more freedom to buck the will of the party than they would in a parliamentary system (since they don't really require party support to be reelected). If it was up to the "Republican party" (i.e. party elites and insiders) neither McCain nor Huckabee would even be in the primaries right now. On the Democratic side, Clinton would be even more the prohibitive favorite than she is now. Major candidates do most of their fundraising on their own - the party supports their efforts, but due to our arcane campaign finance laws their must be a firewall between the party's general campaigning and the candidate's specific campaigns.

So, I don't know that it's a matter of party "weakness" or "strength", at least not in absolute terms. Indeed, some might argue that part of the problem is that the parties aren't strong enough. If they had more control over the nomination process, they might be more willing to have a rational primary system. As it is, manipulating the primaries is the only (albeit imperfect) way that the party elites can try to directly manipulate who wins the nomination. If they had better and more direct ways to do this, we wouldn't be having this conversation. That's not to say that I think parties should actually have those powers, mind you, but I do think that their relative weakness is what's causing the problems, more than their strength (as you imply). So, it's true that the power of the parties is what is thwarting meaningful reform, as you state. But they're holding onto their "power" over the primaries with a death grip, because it's one of the few actual powers that they have left. If they lose that too, then they really do become nearly meaningless booster clubs for whatever candidate bootstraps him/herself to the nomination.

7

^ 5

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

novy.

Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 09:08:30 AM EST

3.50 (interesting, interesting)

US political parties don't have ideological coherence of European or Asian parties not because of their weakness but because they represent coalitions of interests in different states. Republicans in New England don't have much in common with Republicans in Georgia or Texas, but since they stand to right of Democrats in New England, they affiliate with national Republican Party even though national party often hurts them by taking positions that mainly appeal to people in southern and farm states. Democrats in Alabama or Mississippi don't have much in common with Democrats in New York or California, but since Dixiecrats were part of FDR coalition 70 years ago, they still call themselves Democrats even though national party often hurts them by taking positions that mainly appeal to people in northern and industrial states.

If national parties were ideological more coherent and if national political leaders had more power to enforce ideological conformity within their ranks, they would drive portions of their coalitions out, thereby assuring themselves of less influence over national politics. By now, "Republicans" in northeast would already have formed national separate party, Democrats in south would already have formed separate national party, and both major parties would be much weaker. If national parties could determine who could run and who couldn't based on ideological preferences, "if they had more control over the nomination process", it would also weaken their ability to hold coalitions together. Lack of coherence really doesn't relate to lack of power but to fundamental nature of US parties and US political process. So when you admit that "they're holding onto their power over the primaries with a death grip", it's not because they have so few powers but because they can and because they see no reason to let go of any of their prerogatives.  

9

^ 7

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

port1080.

Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 10:26:44 AM EST

5.00 (informative)

US political parties don't have ideological coherence of European or Asian parties not because of their weakness but because they represent coalitions of interests in different states.

Dude, I respectfully disagree. The interests of the different states has something to do with it, but the structure of the American electoral system (and hence, the weakness of the parties) is what allows those differences to shine through in the first place. There is 25+ years of academic study of the American Congressional system which has thoroughly dissected the strengths and weakness of American political parties. If you're seriously interested, I suggest starting with these books. If you still disagree with me after reading them, then we can talk.

10

^ 9

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

novy.

Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 10:36:29 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

As you probably assumed, I will not be reading four books so that I can talk with you. However, I noticed with amusement what was said about second book you referenced:

"Scholars of the U.S. House disagree over the importance of political parties in organizing the legislative process. On the one hand, non-partisan theories stress how congressional organization serves members' non-partisan goals. On the other hand, partisan theories argue that the House is organized to serve the collective interests of the majority party. This book advances a partisan theory and presents a series of empirical tests of that theory's predictions (pitted against others). The evidence demonstrates that the majority party seizes agenda control at nearly every stage of the legislative process in order to prevent bills that the party dislikes from reaching the floor."
In other words, it makes argument for strength and importance of US parties rather than your argument. But we can agree to disagree anyway.

11

^ 10

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

port1080.

Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 10:59:34 AM EST

5.00 (informative)

It is a partisan theory, but it doesn't argue for the strength of the parties in the same sense that you do. Cox and McCubbins are more interested in parties than many political scientists, but they still accept that the reelection process is essentially individualistic. Their discussion of parties is in the context of the legislature, and it focuses on how Congressional voting rules give power to Congressional party organizations. It must be understood, however, that Congressional parties are somewhat different than the national parties. The Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee have only limited control over the way Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans vote (and vice-versa, for that matter). I guess that's my disagreement with you - you see "The Republican Party" or "The Democratic Party" as unified things. I see them as weak coalitions of different things. Those different things can each be quite strong in their own ways, but the overall parties themselves are weak. I would postulate that there are basically three or four "parts" of each party - the national committees and the "party elite" (big money donors, lobbyists), the party in Congress (i.e. legislators that identify with one party or the other), and the party in the Executive (assuming the party holds the presidency). Each of those can (and does) act independently of the others, but all (at times) claim to be representative of "the party". By contrast, in a parliamentary system the party directly controls all three of those areas - Gordon Brown is the executive, he controls the votes of all the members of the Labour Party, and he controls the nomination process and can directly pick who will run on Labour's lists. That is, by definition, a strong party. There is simply nothing like that in the US.

12

^ 11

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

novy.

Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 11:05:02 AM EST

none

In other words, your definition of "strong party" revolves around ideologically-cohesive parties on European model, and so you win argument by definition. Liberal-Democratic Party in Japan has run that country almost non-stop since US allowed elections after World War II, but they don't have "strong party" structure you insist on. Does that make them "weak"? Yes, by your definition. No, by any appeal to reality.

14

^ 12

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

port1080.

Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 11:16:26 AM EST

4.00

Maybe we could find agreement this way - I think what you are describing as powerful is the overall two party system (which, I agree, everyone has a vested interest in maintaining, and I feel it is certainly very "strong" and resistant to change). That I can certainly agree with - the US has a very strong party system, but (perhaps paradoxically) it also has weak parties. Is that a statement which could make sense to you?

13

^ 12

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

port1080.

Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 11:13:36 AM EST

none

Does that make them "weak"? Yes, by your definition. No, by any appeal to reality.

It's not just my definition, it's pretty much accepted among academic political scientists. It's important because it tells you how power is arranged in the party. In the US system a strong legislator who is not well liked by the party can still win elections and still advance his political career (see, McCain). In a strong party system that's simply not possible. I agree with you that we're having definitional issues, but I don't see why you are so hostile to my definition. I'm not saying that US parties are unimportant, simply that they are weak. Your idea of parties as regional coalitions essentially admits the same thing, just in a backwards manner. You see the parties as having some sort of grand plan to allow a great deal of ideological flexibility to help maintain their power. I say that the parties allow this flexibility because they are structurally weak and unable to monopolize the power in the way that they would otherwise wish to. Either way we get more or less the same result, but your way requires us giving party leaders a great deal of credit and foresight. My way requires us viewing party leaders as semi-competents trying to maintain their patches of control in a system they didn't design. I find my view to be more in line with my everyday experiences about how the world works, but your mileage may vary.

15

^ 13

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

novy.

Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 11:28:16 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

My objection to your definition has been based on its incompleteness. In Europe, "strong parties" mean that multiple new parties form and many of those new parties gain traction because that becomes only way to effect change. In many of those countries with "strong parties", proportional representation has meant that new parties have reasonable chance to get people elected to national parliaments. In East Asia, as in US, "weak parties" have meant that new parties can almost never gain traction, and that getting elected to office requires choosing one or another of major parties as vehicle. So "weak parties" cannot be gotten around but "strong parties" can? "Weak parties" have easier time monopolising all political activity while "strong parties" cannot enforce their monopoly outside of their meeting rooms? In governments where "strong parties" predominate, governments can and do independently force rules on all parties, but in governments where "weak parties" predominate, governments almost never do so.

You suggest compromise that American parties should be considered weak while party system should be considered strong. Why bother? Why not just agree to disagree, as we did several posts back? You mean something different by "strong" than I do. Axioms in Euclidean geometry differ from axioms in non-Euclidean geometry, yet each set of axioms has its uses in particular mathematical circumstances. We have different axioms in approaching this matter, and maybe each approach has its utility in different circumstances.  

6

^ 1

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

Shy Elf.

Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 02:11:16 AM EST

4.00 (informative, informative)

Clinton isn't the one campaigning to reinstate the enemies list.

I'm sure some people like him or hate him for any stupid reason you can think of.  The nature of the TV ad election is generally lies because there is little penalty for them.  The secret of Obama's success has really been his ability to stay above the fray and make the other side look juvenile.  It also doesn't hurt at all when the other side self-destructs, and you can passively watch the press rip them apart without looking mean by having to do it yourself.

A lot of the vote will fall according to racial and gender lines no matter what the candidates do.  As the WSJ piece indicates, the last thing Obama can afford is to seem like a typical black politician and drive away those Whites willing to vote for him.  This leaves some opening for Clinton stealing disaffected Black voters who feel he doesn't "act black enough", but her poll numbers in SC are dropping and she's given up on the state.  Clinton leads in the most of the Feb 5 states where people largely don't know who Obama is very well, so expect a huge ad push which may well decide the campaign in the next few weeks.

8

^ 6

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

novy.

Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 09:33:29 AM EST

3.66 (astute, interesting, interesting)

So Clinton wouldn't be as bad as Giuliani. Talk about damning with faint praise. Meanwhile, during Clinton Administration, Bill Clinton kept enemies list just as Richard Nixon did and tried to use IRS against them just as Nixon did.

Obama certainly hasn't stayed above fray recently. Edwards even claimed on Letterman show to represent "grown-up wing" of Democratic Party. Clintons haven't self-destructed, they have only gotten more vigorous in presenting lies and engaging in dirty tactics. If I were guessing, they'll get away with it also.

Sure race and gender will matter. Sure national advertisements will matter (that was what this story was about). But Clinton political "assets" will matter also, and their ruthlessness in bringing those assets to bear.

16

^ 8

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

PenitenziAgite.

Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 12:44:31 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

So Clinton wouldn't be as bad as Giuliani. Talk about damning with faint praise. Meanwhile, during Clinton Administration, Bill Clinton kept enemies list just as Richard Nixon did and tried to use IRS against them just as Nixon did.

Do you have any non-Scaife funded sources on that?

sierra tango foxtrot uniform

17

^ 16

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

novy.

Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 08:53:22 AM EST

4.00 (interesting, interesting)

Would you count Wall Street Journal when it was owned by Dow Jones as "Scaife funded source"?

Alternately, if large number of conservative organisations reported IRS investigations during Clinton years but no one could conclusively prove that Clinton actually had "enemies list", does that mean that claims of conservative groups can be discounted? If large number of liberal organisations got investigated during Bush years but no one could conclusively prove that Bush actually had "enemies list", wouldn't leftists assume that someone in Bush chain of command had intended to screw them anyway? Mainstream media can barely bring themselves to admit they were lied to about weapons of mass destruction in lead-up to Iraq War, so demanding "proof" from them of every "partisan" allegation seems unfair.

I hope you realise that I don't empathise with right-wingers. They screw left-wingers more than left-wingers screw them by substantial margin, and I find their war policies particularly repulsive. But let's be fair.    

18

^ 17

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

PenitenziAgite.

Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:57:42 AM EST

3.50 (astute, interesting)

but let's be fair

Why try at fair play?  The conservatives will just take you for a ride if you trust them.  Play fair with the right?  на хуя?  

If it's the Wall Street Journal's opinion section, it has no credibility.  

Coincidence does not equal causality.  I would give Bush the benefit of that doubt as well.

If I were the IRS, I would certainly pay special attention to certain 'conservative' groups, because many of them are so vehemently opposed to taxation of any kind, and so the fine line between tax avoidance and tax evasion may be blurred.

sierra tango foxtrot uniform

19

^ 18

Re: Could The Clinton-Obama Race Get Uglier?

novy.

Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 12:22:25 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

I admit right-wingers persistently play fast and loose with facts, and have been well rewarded for their lies, so I see your point. News from 1990s mostly doesn't show up on internet, so I couldn't find corroboration for Clinton story other than in WSJ and other conservative media, so I will give you benefit of doubt.

IRS almost always pays special attention to enemies of sitting government. When churches that supported Democrats got audited for violating conditions of tax exempt status while churches that supported Bush administration didn't, I assumed continuation of old pattern. I admit I don't feel much inclination to give Bush benefit of doubt on that matter.    

This story: 19 comments (1 from subqueue)
Post a Comment