Business

Has Microsoft's Time Come and Gone?

port1080.

Posted to Business on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 07:04:49 PM EST (promoted by 1fastdog). RSS.

Motley Fool thinks that Bill Gates' move from company leadership is a sign of things to come, much like when a rat instinctively knows when to leave a sinking ship....

The troubles at Redmond are manyfold. Perhaps first and foremost is the reluctance of the public to adopt Microsoft's flagship product, Windows Vista. Indeed, many Vista early adopters have been so displeased with the OS that they have actually resorted to down-grading back to Windows XP, despite the fact that Microsoft has refused to release some of its newer software (like the DirextX 10 gaming libraries) for XP. Some reports suggest that, a full year after its commercial release, Vista is shipping on less than 40% of new PCs. Although Vista has some improvements over XP in both security and eyecandy, many users have reported it to be buggy, slow, and more difficult to use from a UI standpoint. There is even software on the market designed solely to strip the unnecessary bloat from Vista to help increase performance.

The poor reception Vista has received left a huge opening for Apple Computers advertising division, which has taken full advantage of the positive press that Apple's new OS X Leopard has received to great effect with a blitzkrieg series of clever "Mac vs. PC" commercials. The campaign seems to be paying off, as Macs appear to have made steady gains in the OS market over the last year or so.

Microsoft faces challenges from more than just Apple on the desktop market, however. Dell and Wal-Mart are both now selling desktops pre-loaded with Ubuntu Linux, a desktop-oriented Linux distribution that has made significant strides in finally bringing the Linux learning-curve down to a level the masses can handle. As the personal computer market has become increasingly commodified, the "Microsoft tax" that manufacturers have to pay to preinstall Windows on their computers has become a larger and larger percentage of the overall price of the computer. Manufactures (such as Asus, makers of the well reviewed Eee PC discount laptop) have found that using an open source operating system can help them significantly reduce their retail prices.

Given these developments, has Microsoft's time come and gone? The giant still has a ton of cash reserves, but when you consider its "big four" products (the Windows operating system, the Xbox gaming system, Microsoft Office, and its Windows Live/MSN internet division), Microsoft now only exhibits a clear lead in one category - office software. Considering Microsoft's difficulty in marketing Vista, problems with the Xbox and the increasing importance of multi-platform web applications and mobile devices (which often run custom brewed or open source based operating systems), are we on the verge of the beginning of the end of Redmond's dominance of the personal computing market? Or will the release of Vista Service Pack 1 persuade cautious adopters to finally make the upgrade from XP, and put Microsoft back on track as king of the PC hill?

Tags: written by port1080, edited by 1fastdog, Microsoft, computers, Vista, XP, Apple, technology, Windows, Bill Gates (all tags)

This story: 100 comments (3 from subqueue)
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7

Microsoft is done.

shane.

Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:56:17 PM EST

5.00 (informative, interesting, informative)

I say yes, they are toast.

I run a computer shop on Cortes Island and before that have done computer repairs for large businesses.  I currently 'sell macs and fix pcs'.  After using solely PC or command line linux for years, I've switched to the mac.  I first developed interest in them when I saw an iBook G4 or G3 and discovered that they had BSD under the hood and a really nice shell.  That alone convinced me to give mac a try.  After that I found myself self living on an island (population 1000-3000 depending on time of year) where there is no computer tech and 75% of the market share is mac computers.  So I learned mac, started selling them and started loving them.

The good things about mac:

  1. Quiet - and I don't mean just the fan, which is nice as well.  I sit here typing this on an old Dell Inspiron 5160  laptop that I've nicknamed the plane.  It's really f'kn loud.  As if a quite laptop isn't enough of a draw, OSX just doesn't annoy you with constant pop-up boxes.  Compared to windows it is quiet in that way as well.  When I do an upgrade on windows it spends about 20 minutes asking me things... nearly always I just have to hit OK and carry on.  When I do an upgrade on a mac it asks me everything right up front, then shuts up and does the job.  How nice, I can now do other things while my computer works, instead of baby sitting it, waiting for the next "Is this OK" dialog box to come up.

  2. Easier to fix - The marketing isn't exactly true, sometimes macs do break.  There are three things to do to fix a mac.  a) Run cocktail or something similar to clean out the gunk.  b) create a new user account and see if the problem is in the new user account as well.  c) Use firewire to boot the mac on other mac hardware to see if it is a hardware problem or a software problem. (if hardware problem send in for service, which I can do on Cortes) d)  Use the install disc to do an archive & install.    Archive and install, which is non-destructive and will save all your files, programs and user data, will fix almost all software problems.  e) Use something like Disk Warrior to fix file system problems.   That's it.  These few steps will fix any mac problem that I've ever seen.  

  3. Macs come with really wicked software.  See iLife.  This is the future of computing for the masses -- the users who just 'email, write word docs and print stuff' very quickly find themselves in iTunes and iPhoto easily managing to listen to music, print photos, create slide shows (complete with music and the Ken Burns Effect).  Those two programs rock, and come standard.

  4. iWork.  iWork is apples answer to MS office.  And you know what?  It is really amazing.  Easier to use, nice interface, doesn't annoy you with BS questions, and no install serial numbers to cause you headaches.  Oh yeah, and it's only $79 compared to $250+ for MS office.   And yes, it can read and write MS office files as well.  The only thing that will hold up big business taking this up is the lock-in from VB for Apps spreadsheets, word docs and other things in the office.

  5. Power management that works.  Really, I never turn off a mac, laptop or desktop.  If it is a laptop I just close it and go, the laptop takes care of all else, the way it should be.  it works switching wireless networks, going to dial-up waking up with no network.  If I close it and remove my thumb-drive it doesn't even complain.  It just deals with it all gracefully.  

  6. Easier to use.  Really, if you use a PC and switch to a mac it is a bit tough.  You keep trying to do things  the hard way.  Common questions from PC users "q: how do I turn off the computer. a: don't or close it.", "q: how do I burn a cd. a: Copy files onto it and click burn".  "q: How do I rip a cd. a: Put the cd in the drive, the computer will likely do the rest. q: How do I play dvds. a: Put the dvd into the drive."  Stop doin it the hard way and you can do it on a mac.

As if that's not enough, the new iMacs are sexy.  Anyone who sees one wants to buy it.  

So yes, MS is dead, Apple will rule the day, and if you live in BC I can help you get a new mac!

8

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Re: Microsoft is done.

port1080.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:16:58 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

Apple will rule the day

I wouldn't go quite the far....the one thing that Apple has always had going against it (and I'm not sure if it's on purpose, to keep its rep as a boutique/designer computer company, or what) is price. The Mac Minis are a great computer, don't get me wrong, but they're fairly underpowered for their price. You can easily get a generic PC equivalent with the power of a Mini for half the price (even with the MS tax included - and cheaper yet if you go with Ubuntu). That's what's always turned me off to Apple - the cost of the hardware. If they'd just release a nice, budget desktop system (doesn't have to be all that stylish, or super-small, or whatever - a Mini equivalent in a regular form factor would be fine) then I might change my mind. As it is, Apple simply isn't aiming for the budget consumer market. I know they're in something of a Catch22 - if they sell a cheaper system, the profits will be lower, and people will gravitate away from their high profit models to the cheaper models, screwing with their bottom line - but still, until they figure out a way to bridge that gap Apple's never going to move beyond being a niche operating system. I think Ubuntu is far more likely to take the step to being the new mass-market OS than OS X is (and I say that with regret, because I really, really like using OS X).

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Re: Microsoft is done.

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:10:37 AM EST

4.50 (interesting, astute)

I think Ubuntu is far more likely to take the step to being the new mass-market OS...
Not unless they start taking hardware support more seriously. Average computer users are not turned on by having to understand VGA mode settings in order to boot a GUI, nor are they going to put up with having to configure NDISwrapper in order to get their machine on the internet.

If ubuntu happens to work for you out of the box, great. If not (or if you simply cannot stand the appalling ugliness that is Gnome), I highly recommend trying Mepis.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

port1080.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:45:17 AM EST

5.00 (interesting)

Average computer users are not turned on by having to understand VGA mode settings in order to boot a GUI

I've never had a problem getting Ubuntu 7.10 to install in graphical mode (and I've installed it on everything from an old Celeron 366 with integrated mobo video, to a brand new Core2 Duo with a GeForce 8000 series PCI Express video card). It's also auto-detected almost all my hardware with no problems - the only thing it hasn't played well with is a very old Ensoniq soundcard.

nor are they going to put up with having to configure NDISwrapper in order to get their machine on the internet.

This is generally only an issue with wireless cards - again, with 7.10 I've had Ubuntu auto-configure every network card that I've thrown at it. Still, I totally agree that there needs to be more work put into supporting wireless connectivity. That's probably the one glaring weakness that I can see, particularly when we're talking about running Linux on a laptop.

In the past Ubuntu has had some issues with hardware support (which is what kept me from switching away from Windows sooner - I had major issues with the 6.x series of Ubuntu), but in the newer releases I think that they've been largely resolved. I'm wondering what version of Ubuntu you had all your troubles with? If it was 7.10 then I'll grant you have a point. I also agree that Ubuntu's default theme is ugly as fuck. It ships with the Clearlooks theme as an alternative, however, and that looks pretty good (in my opinion, anyway). Also, I've read that a new, more polished theme is on the priority list for upcoming versions of Ubuntu. Time will tell, I guess.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:41:39 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

That's probably the one glaring weakness that I can see, particularly when we're talking about running Linux on a laptop
All evidence points to laptops being the big growth area for new computers. Wireless support is a glaring weakness (if you want to see an example of the expressions of frustration that ubuntu can evoke, search any help forum for "Broadcom wireless") but so is power management.

I'm wondering what version of Ubuntu you had all your troubles with?
Edgy, Fiesty, and Gusty. Before that I'd tried various versions of Red Hat / Fedora over the years (starting with RH 7) and a couple other smaller distros. I'll admit that ubuntu is far easier to install than anything that came before, but the problem is that Windows has not been standing still over the years as Linux distros have improved. From a usability and polish standpoint, ubuntu is more like Windows 95 than Windows Vista.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

port1080.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:48:27 PM EST

none

All evidence points to laptops being the big growth area for new computers

Agreed - however, I think Ubuntu's future is cannibalizing sales from Windows on low-end desktop PCs (at least, at first). I think that if anyone is going to hurt Windows on the laptop market, it's going to be Apple. Laptops are something people will pay extra for (particularly after that first cheap laptop they buy sounds like a freight train due to all the fans, overheats anyway, and dies after a year and half), so in that market Apple's rep as a boutique seller helps, rather than hinders.

Other than that though, your points are well taken.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

jwb.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 05:11:32 PM EST

5.00 (astute, interesting)

Linux supports vastly more hardware than either Windows or Mac OS X.  My Bluetooth keyboard doesn't work right with Windows.  When I put the machine to sleep, the keyboard never works again until I reboot.  And the rest of the Bluetooth stack isn't any better: transfers to and from the phone never work right.  I have a USB card reader, and when I "eject" it under WIndows, the entire reader is "ejected" and I can't read any more cards until I reboot.  Windows Vista cannot be installed on my desktop computer because it believes the CDROM is the first hard drive.  Is Windows failing because of its poor hardware support?

And we don't even need to talk about OS X.  The number of computers capable of running it can be counted on your fingers: MacBooks, PowerBooks, PowerMacs, Mac Pros, iMacs, iBooks, Mac minis, and XServes.

It is always amazing to me that people will complain about the "bad hardware support" under Linux when in fact Linux has the most broad hardware support of any operating system, by a huge margin.  Yes, it's true that a large number of eighth-tier wireless cards cannot be used with Linux.  However all the big names work perfectly out-of-the-box on Ubuntu: Intel Pro Wireless, Atheros, Intersil, Cisco, Lucent etc.  None of these work out-of-the-box on Windows, and only two (Intel and Lucent) work correctly with Mac OS X.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

joshv.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 05:24:15 PM EST

4.00 (interesting, interesting)

"Linux supports vastly more hardware than either Windows or Mac OS X."

No, unless you count c. 1996 SVGA and NIC cards.

"Windows Vista cannot be installed on my desktop computer because it believes the CDROM is the first hard drive.  Is Windows failing because of its poor hardware support?"

If the CDROM is seen as the first hard drive, I don't imagine Vista could very well boot at all, other than as an installation program.  Typically during an installation you will be asked to remove the install disk, so that the computer will boot from the hard drive.  Almost all computers are configured to boot from the CDROM if a bootable disk is present.

"It is always amazing to me that people will complain about the "bad hardware support" under Linux when in fact Linux has the most broad hardware support of any operating system, by a huge margin.  "

This does not match my experience, either in the past, or more recently with Ubuntu.  It utterly failed to auto-detect and install my wireless card on a new IBM thinkpad.  Vista had no problem.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

jwb.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 05:54:21 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

"No, unless you count c. 1996 SVGA and NIC cards."

That, or currently-shipping.  Linux supported AHCI for almost a year before Windows bothered to pick it up, and Linux supported UHCI before the hardware even existed.  Linux supports my smart card, which Windows (and Mac OS) do not.  Linux supports the IPMI management board in my PC; Windows requires third-party drivers.  Linux supports the IT8718F environmental monitoring sensors on my motherboard; Windows requires third-party drivers.  Linux supports the vacuum fluorescent display on the front of my home theater PC; Windows has no idea what to do with it.  I could continue.

Do I even have to mention that I can install Linux on a PowerBook?  Try that with Windows.

"If the CDROM is seen as the first hard drive, I don't imagine Vista could very well boot at all, other than as an installation program.  Typically during an installation you will be asked to remove the install disk, so that the computer will boot from the hard drive.  Almost all computers are configured to boot from the CDROM if a bootable disk is present."

My PC boots perfectly except into Linux but not into the Vista installer.  The installer starts and then complains that I have no hard drives.  Therefore it is impossible to install Vista because obviously I have to boot the CD.  There is a Microsoft KB article on this topic but I'm too lazy to go look it up.  I got my $99 back, eventually.

In contrast Ubuntu has been glitch-free on my Thinkpad X40 since Edgy at least.  This is hardware that doesn't even come close to meeting the minimum system requirements for Vista.

Face it, the Ubuntu model of hardware support is 1000x better than the Microsoft model.  In the Microsoft model, Windows installs (if you're lucky) and boots into a hideous crippled state.  Then you are expected to go around the web trying to pry drivers out of the terrible web sites of all the random companies that made the junk in your computer.  Go to Intel to get chipset drivers.  Go to Nvidia to get graphics drivers.  Go to Analog Devices, of all people, to get sound drivers.  Try to find your Bluetooth drivers on Belkin's site.  

In the Linux model is if something doesn't work, and you aren't a hacker, then it just doesn't work.  The pressure from users steadily increases the hardware supported by the base system, which at this point is, as I pointed out originally, much more broad than the device support you get from Vista out of the box.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 06:53:23 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Windows requires third-party drivers
By "third-party drivers" do you mean only that the drivers are not written by Microsoft?

In the Microsoft model, Windows installs (if you're lucky) and boots into a hideous crippled state.  Then you are expected to go around the web trying to pry drivers out of the terrible web sites of all the random companies that made the junk in your computer.  Go to Intel to get chipset drivers.  Go to Nvidia to get graphics drivers.  Go to Analog Devices, of all people, to get sound drivers.  Try to find your Bluetooth drivers on Belkin's site
I can only assume you haven't used a version of Windows since 98.

In the Linux model is if something doesn't work, and you aren't a hacker, then it just doesn't work
The Windows model is if you're a hardware manufacturer and you want to sell anything, then you have to make sure there is support for your product in Windows. You mentioned poking around on manufacturers' websites to get device drivers: try doing that and notice the number of Windows drivers available versus the number of Linux drivers.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

jwb.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 07:29:58 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

On the contrary, I've used every version of Windows since 3.0 including every version of Windows NT, 95/98, 2000, XP, and Vista.  They are all remarkably malformed.

My current desktop PC contains state-of-the-art equipment from Intel, including Intel-brand motherboard and Intel CPU.  All the peripherals on this machine -- the disk controllers, network interface, graphics engine, etc -- are made by Intel.  You may have heard of them: they are the largest computer equipment maker in the world.

And yet let us count all the ways in which this equipment does not work with Windows.  In Windows Vista the graphics are not accelerated unless I install a driver downloaded from Intel's website.  In Ubuntu the graphics are accelerated by default.  In Windows Vista, my SATA DVD writer does not even show up.  In Ubuntu Linux, my SATA DVD writer works perfectly.  Windows Vista won't install if the disk controller is set for AHCI mode.  In Linux, the disk controller works regardless of the BIOS setting.  In Windows Vista, I need a downloaded utility from a company called SigmaTel to get surround sound to work.  In Ubuntu Linux, surround sound works with no downloads.  Under Windows Vista, I have to download a driver if I want to use my Intel IOP431 RAID controller.  Under Ubuntu Linux the RAID controller works with no downloads, and unlike Windows, Linux will install onto and boot from that RAID controller.

The notion that Windows has better hardware support is not backed by any facts in evidence.  For any given bit of hardware Linux is likely to simply work with no downloads, whereas with Windows you will require a download, a CD-ROM, or you'll just have to wait until the next major release of Windows.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 07:52:20 PM EST

5.00 (informative)

The notion that Windows has better hardware support is not backed by any facts in evidence
I have no idea why your installation of Vista won't detect your hardware and offer to look for a driver.

As to your "evidence," it is naught but anecdote, and I can easily counter it with my tales of ubuntu woe on the laptop I am using right now. Just getting the live CD GUI loaded required manual configuration, and nothing I tried was able to get the wireless to work. (I got a similar bit of advice on an ubuntu support forum and in an ubuntu IRC channel: you should have bought a different laptop - one known to work with ubuntu.)

I did manage to get this machine working using MEPIS* Linux, and I am pretty happy with the result. Still, getting a proper video driver took a manual configuration (for which MEPIS thankfully provided a GUI) and there is still no proper support for power management (nor was there for ubuntu). I mention this so you understand I have nothing against Linux, and, indeed, I like it quite a lot compared to Vista.* *



* I mentioned this elsewhere in this discussion: Gnome is terrible. Not that it is objectively terrible, but as a GUI is is rather primitive and there are much better alternatives. Just my opinion, of course.

 * * I still have to use Vista, perhaps 1/3 of the time, for Microsoft Office and for photo editing. Unfortunately there just aren't any suitable alternatives on Linux.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

PenitenziAgite.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:15:19 PM EST

4.00 (informative)

Wow.  That sucks.  I recently bought an HP notebook with dual AMD Turions, nVidia graphics and a Broadcom wireless, and everything worked right away.  I have had so few problems with Vista, I start wondering what all these people are talking about.  I appreciate the execution environment security, and the internationalization is vastly better.  It's not a whole lot different than XP, save for Aero, which is ok, but nothing to get excited about.  It has some dumb new features, ( Windows Sidebar?  Totally without purpose), but the file manager is much better.  Haven't had any driver problems since the first few weeks when it was being shaken out.

I'm holding off on the 64-bit version for a few more months, but I fully intend to use it.

I also ran Ubuntu-64 on a VMWare installation, and it worked pretty well, save for finding a graphics mode which fit the screen, and yes, the wireless was DOA.

sierra tango foxtrot uniform

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Re: Microsoft is done.

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 06:43:36 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Is Windows failing because of its poor hardware support?
No, because almost no one has any interest in making old computers run.

It is always amazing to me that people will complain about the "bad hardware support" under Linux when in fact Linux has the most broad hardware support of any operating system, by a huge margin
Only about a month ago was I able to get a Linux distro that (mostly) worked first time out and with no specialized knowledge available. If one needs to copy driver files into the correct directory or edit a config file in order to get a machine to work, it is an indication of a lack of hardware support.

None of these work out-of-the-box on Windows
I have no idea what you are talking about. Are you talking about obsolete hardware not working on Vista or XP?

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Re: Microsoft is done.

Degee.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:09:31 PM EST

4.00 (informative, informative)

No, because almost no one has any interest in making old computers run.

I realize you didn't imply anything different, but I just want to point out that people whose needs are served by the old hardware (and can't afford the new stuff) would love to re-use it.

Also by the way, old hardware requires a lot of processing before it can be recycled sustainably and ethically. Otherwise much of it gets shipped to China where people's lives are put at risk to extract the valuable elements, or said elements leech into the ground in landfill sites.

Am I a great person? Hell no - by most metrics I'm pretty much an asshole. -TSlothrop

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Re: Microsoft is done.

Shotgun Stockton.

Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 12:10:16 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Did you ever try SUSE? I must've tried it 5 or 6 years ago and it worked pretty well out of the box, on a homemade PC at that.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

zyxwvutsr.

Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:31:55 PM EST

4.00 (informative)

Did you ever try SUSE? I must've tried it 5 or 6 years ago and it worked pretty well out of the box, on a homemade PC at that
No, never tried SUSE. I tried a few versions of Red Hat, then Fedora, ubuntu (Edgy, Fiesty, and Gusty), PClinuxOS, and Mepis. That last one is working quite well now - to the extent that I've even got Photoshop and Microsoft Office running under wine.

I probably should mention that I had always been trying to get Linux installed on laptops rather than desktops. No doubt that has informed my opinion of hardware support as I have been arguing elsewhere in this discussion. I still haven't figured out how to get any sort of standby/hibernate working - something that's pretty useful for a laptop.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

port1080.

Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:30:29 PM EST

none

SuSe has gone downhill somewhat since they got purchased by Novell. They made some weird patent deals with Microsoft that kind of freaked a lot of people out, and they really seem to be focusing more on the commercial / business market than on the personal computer market (ditto Red Hat / Fedora).

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Re: Microsoft is done.

Degee.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:24:04 AM EST

4.00 (funny)

I think Ubuntu is far more likely to take the step to being the new mass-market OS

I hope not. No more built-in security from being a marginal target.

Am I a great person? Hell no - by most metrics I'm pretty much an asshole. -TSlothrop

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Re: Microsoft is done.

shane.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 01:11:45 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Considering that you can sell a 3 year old mac for 1/2 the price you paid for it, the price difference isn't that much.  Buy your macbook for $1249, use it for 3 years, sell it for $600.  It didn't cost you more than a buggy windows laptop, and it works real nice as well.

And did I mention macs are 75% of the market share around here?  Cortes is a bit of an artist/alternative community but still. It's amazing.  Even people who move here tend to have macs when they come.  People are willing to pay $1500 for a computer.

I have a 24" iMac on my desk at work... it receives lots of oooohs and awwws and 'how much is that'.  $1899 and people say "oh, is that it?  Wow, that's a good price".  

So yeah, upfront a mac is more money, but well worth it.  People save for it, instead of buying a cheaper system.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

port1080.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:52:44 AM EST

none

Buy your macbook for $1249, use it for 3 years, sell it for $600.

If Mac market share moves into the 50% plus range, do you think that resale value will hold up? I doubt it. A big part of the resale value is the artificial scarcity produced by Jobs pricing strategy. If Macs ever really take off in popularity, their aftermarket value will plummet. I'm not willing to be $600 on the hope that my notebook computer will hold its resale value. Also, I'm not the kind of person that likes to re-sell my old computers - I generally use things until they break or become almost totally obsolete. Given all this, Macs are simply never going to be the platform of choice for people like me. I do own two Mac laptops (an old clamshell G3 iBook and an aluminum case G4 Powerbook), but they're luxury items to me - all my my main hardware consists of generic PCs that have held up just as well as a Mac would have, and cost half the price (or less). As I said in my previous post, until Apple releases a system that doesn't require me to pay extra just to "be cool", Macs will never be the main computer in my household - and I'm sure that's doubly true for most mainstream PC buyers.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

shane.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:08:33 PM EST

none

50% market share would mean prices come down a lot.  Also, there are people around here who have gotten osx running on non-mac hardware.  It was buggy but it can be done, so I wouldn't be surprised to see mac clones follow one day in the next few years.

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Re: Microsoft is done.

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:02:11 AM EST

4.50 (informative, interesting)

Power management that works
What are you comparing the Mac to? My experience was that power management in Windows was fine in Windows 2000, and has only gotten better.  Vista has a new "sleep" mode that is a hybrid between the old hibernate (which is still available) and standby modes. Sleep mode first mirrors RAM on the hard drive, then enters a very low-power consumption state, refreshing the RAM and monitoring the battery but doing little else unless the battery level drops too low. When the battery drops too low the machine basically goes into hibernate mode. Coming out of sleep mode is quite fast - generally less than 10 seconds on my laptop, for example. (Initially there was a delay getting an IP address via DHCP, but an OS update fixed that and now I get a IP address assigned within 10-15 seconds - generally quick enough that the delay is unnoticeable.)

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Re: Microsoft is done.

keta.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 05:30:46 PM EST

4.33 (funny, interesting, funny)

You live on Cortes?  One of the most magnificent areas on the entire planet?  You're an incredibly smart and lucky bastard, Shane.

Oh, and that computer stuff was, uh, interesting, too.

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Yes.

shane.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 06:07:08 PM EST

5.00 (informative)

Yes, that's right.  

10

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Think opposite

delete me.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 01:00:31 AM EST

4.00 (interesting, interesting)

I just bought a Macbook, and learning how to use it has been fun and frustrating. My other two machines are an Ubuntu box and an XP Media Center. Having to use the squiggle key instead of the CTRL key to find, cut, paste, etc. has slown me down. The singular usage of the home and end keys are a pain in the butt. And it seems that everything one's used to doing in Windows or most Linux/Unix graphical shells is done completely backwards on OS X. To burn an .iso to disk with Linux or Windows, I just click on the file and the relevant utility starts up. To do that with OS X, I open Disk Utility, then look for the .iso.

Also, with Leopard or LOL Cat, or whatever the current version of OS X is called, that "preview" application is annoying as fuck, and it seems impossible to make your favourite application the default for a particular file. Half the time my image files open with Preview (in which the back and next commands seemingly do nothing). The other half of the time, my preferred application opens the file. No clue to why there's no consistency. Printer settings never stick, as well. And I'm not looking forward to the oft-mentioned hard drive problem where things get wonky when your massive hard drive is only 80% used up.

So, OS X is not perfect. But it's not too bad; upgrading the OS doesn't appear to make it slower, and changes to the system require a password. Installing and un-installing software is a cinch, once you realize how uncomplicated it is. And programs written for Linux can run on OS X. Which is good, since the ones that Apple makes for the Mac seem to be a bit bloated for simple tasks (iTunes) or missing obvious convenient features (QuickTime - playlists, anyone?).

That said, I'm pretty pleased with my new laptop. I wanted something that could be dropped on the floor or with a motorcycle and survive.* Macbooks have that reputation, and it seems to be well-deserved. Updating the software is easy, and it seems at least as secure as Ubuntu Linux. Some of my annoyances with OS X will likely clear up once I get used to the system. And if you can locate a Mac expert away from the internet and outside of an Apple Store, they're very friendly, knowledgeable and helpful.

*Unfortunately tested both scenarios in the past two weeks. Macbook is fine. Bike needs a new turn signal and clutch lever. And an owner that remembers to put the kickstand down.

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

13

^ 10

Re: Think opposite

shane.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 01:20:22 AM EST

4.50 (informative, interesting)

Don't drop your mac!  Ouch, I've seen a few that were dropped, even just off a table.  It doesn't work out well.  The iBook line has weak hinges that will break when dropped.  MacBooks I'm not sure about yet - I don't think I've seen any that were damaged from dropping.

I've been using macs for about 1 year and still have a few conversion issues: vi under terminal doesn't delete properly - I think it deletes on the right side of the cursor instead of the left side.   Skipping to the start/end of a line doesn't work the same and I'm not quite used to the new method yet.  

Printing is OK.  When you change your print settings just Save them and you'll be able to use them again later.

Off the top of my head I don't recall how to change which app is opened by which application.

Saving ISO's in windows can be easy. Usually an OEM installer will set you up with something to do it for you. Windows XP does not include anything to burn ISO's and I don't think it even has anything to burn CDS.  In OSX it is a bit cumbersome as well.  Toast helps I've heard.

I don't understand iTunes complaints - I think it is amazing and works perfectly.  Bloat? Where?

Hard drive problems?  Use Disk Utility to 'repair permissions' and 'repair' the drive.  If that doesn't clean things up use Disk Warrior to fix the file system.  That should do it.  

14

^ 13

Re: Think opposite

delete me.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 01:43:09 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Under the "Open With" dialogue, there's a checkmark for "Always open with". Which works intermittently.

As for iTunes, I don't see why I need a second copy of my mp3s stored on my computer, and access to a store I don't use unless someone buys me another giftcard. I guess I'm too used to Winamp and similarly small applications (Cog is great, so problem solved). I'll test out the printing advice later. Like I've mentioned, I'm sure most of my annoyance complaints will clear up with time.

Oh, hey, I don't mean to drop my Macbook nor place my motorcycle on top of me, mind you. :(

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

45

^ 13

Re: Think opposite

DEMachina.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 02:37:05 PM EST

4.00 (informative)

My MacBook has handled being dropped pretty well: I've dropped into onto asphalt at least once, and I'm 6'4", so it had a ways down, and all I did was scrape up the aluminum shell.  Other than that it runs as well as it did before.

Q: What do you think of western civilization? Gandhi: I think it would be a good idea.

47

^ 13

iTunes is overrated

1fastdog.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 02:47:42 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

I don't understand iTunes complaints - I think it is amazing and works perfectly.  Bloat? Where?

iTunes is a  44 meg download - pretty large just to listen to MP3s. Honestly, I find it to be a mediocre player. I use it cuz I've got a 1gig ipod shuffle and frequently change my playlist for it, but I'm real close to taking the Songbird plunge. For PC users it's under 14 megs in size and does a bunch of neat tricks that iTunes doesn't. I'll post a diary entry when I make the switch.

Somewhere in my soul, there's always Rock -n- Roll... Joe Strummer

51

^ 13

Re: Think opposite

PenitenziAgite.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 03:10:00 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

I don't understand iTunes complaints - I think it is amazing and works perfectly.  Bloat? Where?

It takes up a big chunk of memory.  I run a Postgresql database on my machine, and it uses much less memory.  For the life of me, I can't figure out why it takes up so much.  Does it load everything into a bigass cache?  Why?  It's performance is not great.

That said, I like the Mac OS, but Apple computers are prohibitively expensive.  One thing I do not like (and never liked) about the Mac OS is the obscurity.  Yeah, stuff 'just works' except when it doesn't, and when that happens trying to figure out where stuff lives or how it gets configured is damn hard to do.  Yes, it's BSD under the covers, but stuff that you would expect to be where normal BSD machines put stuff is not always there, and nothing in the documentation or help tells you where it is.  That bugs me.

sierra tango foxtrot uniform

58

^ 51

memory

shane.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 03:51:10 PM EST

4.00 (funny)

I've never noticed memory issues on my systems - I have 2GB of ram though.   You are right, iTunes shouldn't use so much memory, maybe they needed someplace to hide their drm? :)

59

^ 58

Re: memory

PenitenziAgite.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 04:09:37 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

I'm not having issues, I just don't understand why it's the biggest memory hog I have running.  

sierra tango foxtrot uniform

87

^ 13

Re: Think opposite

Minos.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 09:44:54 AM EST

4.00 (informative)

I was similarly frustrated with the Mac-like instead of console-like behavior of Home, End, and Delete in Terminal.app.  I ditched it for iTerm, and I've been very happy with it.  There was some jumping through hoops I had to do to get the keys to behave the way they should, but at least it was possible, as opposed to Terminal.app.  Unfortunately, that was a year ago, so I can't give you any pointers on the configuration.

16

^ 7

Let the OS war commence!

profwhat.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 07:03:45 AM EST

4.00 (funny, obnoxious, brilliant)

So here is my theory on Mac users:  Smart enough to avoid Windows, but too dumb to use Linux.

There is something offputting about this emphasis on how everything in a Mac "just works."  Everything works because it was made by one company; every app you are using was written by Apple, and the software you are running it on was designed by Apple.  There were once third-party competitors for things like iLife, but Apple stamped them out.  So, Apple has achieved this by stomping out free market choice and the natural crazy evolution of the software world.  At the bottom, the Mac world is empty; it's a one-man band, and you are completely dependent on the wisdom of Apple to make innovations and get things right.  It's a benevolent dictatorship.  Although Jobs and company have made some good decisions (I like the new iMac) and makes the trains run on time, as soon as management for this one company that provides your entire universe goes bad, you're screwed.  Take it from a Mac user who lived through the Gil Amelio era; being dependent on one company is no picnic.

This also explains why Mac users are unusually susceptible to advertising.  MacWorld gatherings are like the throngs gathering under the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica, waiting to see their religious leader tell them what to buy next.

And then, ease of use.  This argument just depresses me.  It's as if Apple has convinced individuals that they are too stupid to use anything but Apple's products.  Check a book out from the library, spend a day reading it, and I guarantee you that you can be productive in any modern operating system you choose.

17

^ 16

Re: Let the OS war commence!

Coelacanth.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 07:55:18 AM EST

4.66 (interesting, astute, interesting)

Much of what you say is true, but I disagree with your conclusions.  I've written code for 25 years, mostly on Unix variants or VMS, run a self-owned business based on Linux servers, etc.  My work computers are a Windows laptop and a Linux workstation (for the real work, developing engineering simulations).

But my home computers are Macs.  Because whether you are writing code or writing e-mail, it's a nicer experience.  I can work on my code with the same tools I use at work, either old school via the shell or via Eclipse, when I'm feeling newfangled.  The Mac-specific dev tool (XCode) looks excellent, actually, but I'm not using it currently.  I can still use Firefox with all my extensions, sync, etc.  I can run Adobe Photoshop CS2 also, and where I'm not happy with Apple's tools, I can choose another one (iTunes is OK, Apple Mail is great, Safari is weak, iPhoto is weak...)  But overall, stuff does work.   Devices (and not just Apple devices) connect.  Networking is easy.  I've done my time with Linux system admin, and it's kind of fun when you get things working, but I ain't doing that without pay anymore.

78

^ 17

Re: Let the OS war commence!

skeeter1.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 10:46:46 PM EST

4.00 (interesting, interesting)

" I've done my time with Linux system admin, and it's kind of fun when you get things working, but I ain't doing that without pay anymore."

I, too, spent many years working on a bunch of systems, from RSTS-E to VMS to AIX, and every small computer system in-between.

My best experience was with working with a DEC Alpha box running VMS.  It was once up and running for a full year without a problem.  Eventually, we had to take it down for hardware maintainance.  The operating system was about as reliable as a brick.

The IBM RS6000 AIX box wasn't nearly as good, needing a re-boot about once/wk.  The only thing it had going for it was SMIT (system management integration tool) that I wish was in every installation of Unix/Linux.  

I've tried Ubuntu 7.0, and wasn't particularly impressed.  

Apple notebooks are very nice, but way overpriced, so I guess I'm stuck with my HP notebook and Vista.  Now that I've spent hours getting it setup the way I want, it's not so bad.  It's something of a personal challenge to see how long it will go before I have to re-boot it again (longest so far ~36hrs).  

there's only one way to find out...

73

^ 16

Re: Let the OS war commence!

delete me.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:57:41 PM EST

4.50 (brilliant, funny)

So here is my theory on Mac users:  Smart enough to avoid Windows, but too dumb to use Linux.

If you have all three, like me, then what? :)

Personally, I'd also like to have a computer running MVS 5, but I'd have no place to put it.

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

54

^ 16

Re: Let the OS war commence!

brownjava.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 03:24:02 PM EST

4.33 (astute, astute, interesting)

While it's somewhat true that Apple is a "benevolent dictatorship," you can say pretty much the same for Microsoft too.  Sure you have some choice in where you get your hardware, but your day to day experience with the machine is roughly the same whether you bought your laptop from Dell, HP, Sony, etc.

Microsoft offers plenty of first party products.  Who uses anything other than Outlook to check mail and do calendaring?  Or Office to do word processing?  Or Visual Studio to do development?  There are alternatives to all of these, just like there are alternatives to iLife, iCal, Xcode, etc.  Many people can't migrate away from Windows for the same reasons you mention about Apple: they're locked into platforms or products that were industry leaders at one point but are now subpar, and the cost to migrate to something else is too high.

Don't get me wrong, I fully agree with your point, I just think it's disingenuous not to apply it to both companies.

75

^ 54

Re: Let the OS war commence!

profwhat.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:24:47 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

Yes, Microsoft will lock you in, too.  Any OS will.  So, the smartest people use an operating system that's free.

32

^ 16

Re: Let the OS war commence!

shane.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:15:48 PM EST

4.00 (interesting, interesting)

So here is my theory on Mac users:  Smart enough to avoid Windows, but too dumb to use Linux.

Of course I use all 3.  It's been years since I tried X but at the time I didn't see any windows managers that I liked.  They are probably all much better now.

Adobe, xSilva, Ms Office, Windows, Intuit, iTerm.app, cocktail, disk warrior, apache, mysql, vim, grep, ssh - the list of non-apple software I run on my mac is pretty long.

I don't watch advertising.  

Easy of use can be quantified by number of clicks to perform an action.  Any time I've compared windows vs mac it is easier (less clicks) to do it in the mac.

43

^ 16

Re: Let the OS war commence!

DEMachina.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 02:34:06 PM EST

4.00 (interesting, interesting)

I really, really, really want to like Linux, but just can't get there.  I always have a horrible time installing it or getting it up and running.  The last time I tried was with Ubuntu (6.10, IIRC), and the upgrade to 7, after downloading all night, randomly failed during installation, leaving me with a broken, un-upgradeable mess.

Second, nothing I want to use a computer for is any good on Linux.  I hate Kommander, it always feels like it's one mouse-click away from crashing.  Open Office is still horrible (sorry guys); it feels buggy, like it's held together with string and tape.  It doesn't always remember formatting when it saves.  Etc....  I can't game on Linux (or my Mac)...this is the one reason I still have a Windows-based desktop (which runs XP, because no way in hell will I upgrade to Vista).  Photoshop is orders of magnitude better than gimp.  The list goes on....

The only use I've found for Linux has been using a Knoppix DVD at my side job (tech support for my school) to deal with viruses.  Booting off Knoppix + ClamAV + rm has become my second response, just after trying (usually in vain) to get Sophos to do what it's supposed to do.  So there is that.

Again, I'm not down on Linux as a whole, but I think it's still got a long way to go until it's viable for a mainstream market.  I like the ability to tinker, but it shouldn't be mandatory.

Q: What do you think of western civilization? Gandhi: I think it would be a good idea.

76

^ 43

Re: Let the OS war commence!

profwhat.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:39:17 PM EST

4.00 (funny, interesting)

Just buy Linux pre-installed.  And Open Office is not that bad.  I have used it as my main word processor for two years now, and I have not encountered the problems you described.  I hate some parts of its interface, but I tend to hate the interface of most software I use.

I'll admit, though, that even I have a Windows partition or two hanging around.  I don't have the courage to run my tax preparation software under WINE.

79

^ 76

Re: Let the OS war commence!

shane.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 12:04:08 AM EST

4.00 (funny)

I hate some parts of its interface, but I tend to hate the interface of most software I use.

I think this has something to do with using linux.

81

interesting comments -- misunderstanding MSFT

wetkarma.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 06:32:30 AM EST

5.00 (brilliant, brilliant, interesting)

The comments people have made seem to focus on Microsoft - purveyor of Windows OS/desktop monopoly holder extraordinaire, rather than Microsoft - a company with so many billion dollars in cash that it could buy several S&P 500 companies without impacting earnings or operating margins.

The power of microsoft is that its cost of production for what it sells is near to 0.

With the stock market in serious decline, Microsoft will do what it has always done to fuel its growth and innovation: buy other companies. Where its Yahoo, or MySpace or FaceBook or the next Web 2.0 hotness, any company which sells a virtual product is a candidate for Microsoft acquisition.

The best example of what I can think about is Nokia -- I say Nokia to you and you probably think 'phones' -- at one time however 'Nokia' meant boots. Microsoft is no longer constrained to software for the micro-pc; it is a potential service behemoth with a cash position that is the envy of every other company in the world (except perhaps Google).

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

89

^ 81

Re: interesting comments -- misunderstanding MSFT

port1080.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:19:59 AM EST

5.00 (interesting, interesting)

Another interesting problem that Microsoft might have is that it will become a victim of its own success (and unsavory history). The DOJ is already "interesting in looking into" the proposed merger, for anti-trust issues. And this is the Bush DOJ - imagine the scrutiny if this drags into a Clinton, Obama, or even a John "Greedy people should be punished" McCain Presidency. This isn't even taking into account European regulators, which will probably be even more skeptical. Is there any major company that Microsoft will actually be allowed to buy?

93

^ 89

Re: interesting comments -- misunderstanding MSFT

wetkarma.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:55:13 AM EST

none

The idea of regulatory constraints preventing Microsoft from buying Yahoo! or any other company is an interesting one. I'm sure some of the regulators would want to do it, but given the dominance of google in the marketplace - I don't see how the deal wouldn't go through.

the interesting thing about the internet (so far) is that a lot of the major brands are measured in months and years old vs. decades. while its possible/likely that in the long term monopolies will be established, right now businesses are merely 'king for a day'.

I suspect that it will take 12-18 months, but like the XM Satellite-Sirius deal - a Yahoo buyout will probably go through. I also suspect that some other corporation will rise up and become the new "portal" to use on the internet.

Its drop dead easy to switch from using Plastic to using TnT. The same thing goes for every other site on the net -- sure you have sites who try to make things 'sticky', but at the end of the day its the new features that draw people's attention.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

82

^ 81

Re: too late to snap up cheap Yahoo stock

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 06:53:58 AM EST

4.00 (funny)

Buy Yahoo?! That's unpossible!

83

^ 82

Re: too late to snap up cheap Yahoo stock

wetkarma.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 07:35:13 AM EST

4.00 (astute)

The (potential) takeout of Yahoo! shows that management matters. By all rights Yahoo! should have been where Google is now. However lack of vision, lack of execution, and a general lack of understanding the internet by the senior business managers translated into a company which gave away its first mover advantage.

One of the things that has made microsoft successful over the years is that senior management built (and thus understand in detail) the software business. Its entirely possible to bring in a management team and have them run a good business well. But not everyone can turn a good business into a great one.

An understanding of business AND the products is key. I see this all the time in the finance industry where banking websites show insufficient attention to interface design concerns. HSBC for example has one of the most user-unfriendly websites I've ever used -- this is a company which is 'banking' on inertia to preserve its success.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

94

^ 83

Re: too late to snap up cheap Yahoo stock

jwb.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 12:07:59 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

Heck yeah, management matters.  The lesson we learn from Yahoo! should be that you ought not to hire some closeted Scientologist from Hollywood to run a legitimate business.

85

^ 83

Re: too late to snap up cheap Yahoo stock

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 09:21:24 AM EST

4.00 (astute)

By all rights Yahoo! should have been where Google is now. However lack of vision, lack of execution, and a general lack of understanding the internet...I see this all the time in the finance industry where banking websites show insufficient attention to interface design concerns
I think the way they have designed their respective websites indicates that Microsoft and Yahoo are screwed up in the same way. Both have tried to emulate Google's webpage style, but continue to get it wrong in fundamental ways.

86

^ 85

Re: too late to snap up cheap Yahoo stock

port1080.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 09:41:04 AM EST

none

I think the way they have designed their respective websites indicates that Microsoft and Yahoo are screwed up in the same way.


If we're superficially just talking about Yahoo.com, then I agree with you.  However, for as badly as Yahoo has handled their "portal" and search engine, they've done a pretty good job with a lot of the rest of their network.  Flickr, Yahoo Mail, and Yahoo News are all well thought out and in many ways are the "market leader" for their particular part of the web.  I like using all three of those services (although I do use Google Mail for my main e-mail account, I use Yahoo for a couple of peripheral accounts) and I fear what they'll end up looking like if this deal goes through.  If MSNBC and Hotmail are any indication, it won't be pretty.

90

^ 86

Re: too late to snap up cheap Yahoo stock

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:21:17 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

Flickr was the market leader when Yahoo bought them. And one of the first things Yahoo did was to force everyone who had been using Flickr to sign up for a Yahoo account in order to keep using it. Fuck Yahoo, I say.

91

^ 90

Re: too late to snap up cheap Yahoo stock

port1080.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:27:42 AM EST

4.00 (funny)

one of the first things Yahoo did was to force everyone who had been using Flickr to sign up for a Yahoo account in order to keep using it.

Is that really that bad? If all MS does is make people sign up for Passport and otherwise leaves the Yahoo properties unchanged, I can handle that. What I can't handle is Yahoo taking Flickr, then akwardly renaming it Windows Live! Photos, moving the whole thing to a poorly performing Windows backend, and adding more and more cludgy graphical doodads and IE "optimizations" until it finally becomes unusable to anyone not running Windows Vista Ultimate Upgraded Microsoft $500 Assrape Edition.

95

^ 91

Re: too late to snap up cheap Yahoo stock

permazorch.

Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 08:45:11 AM EST

4.66 (funny, funny, funny)

Is that really that bad?
For me, yes.

I cannot do justice to the sheer hatred I have for Yahoo. From ratting out Chinese dissidents to ripping me off, personally (in conjunction with AT&T and Cingular), they've managed to work their way to the top 100 of my personal shit-list.

Just yesterday, a friend informed me he had a new blog, and would I care to read & comment? You bet your sweet bippy I would! But, NOOOOOOOOOOOoooooo!!! There was Yahoo, asking me to either create another fucking account, or log in. Some people may enjoy having multiple identities on-line, but I reached my fill years ago. It's virtual kipple, and kipple is taking over the world, y'know.

And another thing I hate is plastic chairs! You know, the white ones. They've definitely taken over the planet!

So, yeah, I still have an icy lump of coal where my heart used to be, when it comes to plastic chairs and Yahoo. Microsoft is a good fit for them, I guess.
(End of Rooney)

----- The earth may fail, but we will quiver

92

^ 91

Re: too late to snap up cheap Yahoo stock

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:35:02 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

There is already integration between Vista and Flickr.

88

^ 81

Re: interesting comments -- misunderstanding MSFT

port1080.

Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 09:49:20 AM EST

none

Microsoft is no longer constrained to software for the micro-pc; it is a potential service behemoth with a cash position that is the envy of every other company in the world (except perhaps Google).

My question, though (particularly relevant considering this morning's news) is whether Microsoft can actually take advantage of that position. IBM was able to reinvent itself in some sense, from a hardware manufacturer to a services firm - but if you look at their hardware business, it was always as much about leasing the hardware and supplying support as actually making the stuff. Will Microsoft be able to pull the same trick? As you said here, management does matter - and it's not clear that MS has the right management for this sort of acquisition. Its Internet services devision is reviled by pretty much everyone - it's quite clear the only reason it has so much market share is because MSN is the default IE homepage, and IE is the default Windows browser. Will the Yahoo acquisition bring much needed experience to MS, or will MS just take the Yahoo properties and gut them, then replace them with their own craptastic backends and interfaces (much like they did with Hotmail)? If that's what they do, then this will certainly be the beginning of a new Internet monopoly - but it will be the monopoly of Google, not of Microsoft. With Yahoo gone as a competitor, Google will be the only place left to go.

99

Microsoft's Time Has Not Come and Gone

ckm.

Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 04:50:38 PM EST

5.00 (informative, interesting, brilliant)

First, a couple of disclaimers:

  1. My company has been doing Open Source strategy for most of MSFTs competitors for the last 7 years
  2. MSFT is also one of our largest customers
  3. All this is my own opinion

Microsoft is in no danger of going under or being 'done'.   They may have stumbled with Vista (and people said the same thing with XP...), but there are a number of realities that almost all of the comments ignore.   I suspect that most of the comments are driven by personal user experience and, from that point of view, they are all very valid (and I agree with a lot of them).  But, in corporate land, the view is very different.  

The first reality is that Windows biggest competition is not Mac or Linux, it's 'old Windows'.  After 'old Windows', Windows biggest competition is piracy.   Even if everyone want to switch to Linux tomorrow, it wouldn't be possible as there is currently an enormous lack of skilled professionals who are proficient in Linux admin.  And there isn't a large 3rd party software ecosystem for Linux.  MSFT has 300,000 channel partners (eg. companies that develop on and support windows).  Perhaps 100,000 of those develop software.  By contrast, there are around 500-1000 companies developing OpenSource commercial Open Source (there are a lot more projects, but most companies deploying software want some sort of commercial support).  Even if 500 is 10x too small, Linux and Open Source has a long way to go before it can match Microsoft's ecosystem.

As far as productivity software goes, OpenOffice is a great theoretical competitor to MS Office, but reality is much different.   The cost of re-training alone would kill most companies efforts to replace MS Office with OpenOffice and the slight incompatibilities in file translation are the nail in the coffin.  This is particularly true in the two most heavily used productivity apps in corporate environments, presentation and spreadsheet.   Also, until recently, there was no MS Access clone on OO and Access is the great backbone of SMB businesses as tons of apps are built on top of it.

Finally, MSFT owns the groupware market.  Yes, there are competitors out there, including some notable open source efforts (Zimbra, OpenExchange, Kollab, etc), but nothing comes close to seamless integration like Outlook, Exchange and Active Directory.  Yes, it's not terribly reliable, but it does work.  You can glue all this kind of functionality together using Open Source, but it's incredibly hard and lots of work (been there, doing that).  And if you try to add third party systems (like Blackberry Server or RSA SecurID), it's virtually impossible.

The place where MSFT has really, really lost out in the last ten years is in internet and datacenter applications, where ease/flexibility of deployment, cheap/free licensing and good tools are the most important factors.  Combined with Web 2.0-style applications, Linux, PHP, Ruby, mySQL and other open source has largely shut the door on MSFT in this space, a space where they would have had a natural growth if not for Open Source.

Right now, the area MSFT is most vulnerable is in the mobile space.  They and Blackberry dominate smart phones, but there is an outside chance that Linux might take some of this market, esp. with Nokia acquiring TrollTech.   It's likely that MSFT will try to buy Blackberry, although I hope this doesn't happen as BB is a pretty open platform right now (it's based on Java ME).

As a company, MSFT is likely to be a force to be reckoned with for at least the next 10-15 years, or until we have truly ubiquitous 24/7/365 high-speed connectivity anywhere on the planet at any time.  There's really no point in animosity towards MSFT (they are just driven to maximize their revenues), the best thing to would be just to build competitive products so that MSFTs offerings are force to be as good as or better (see Firefox vs IE).  So, go out and code already! ;-)

4

Our Accelerated Age

keta.

Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 08:11:02 PM EST

4.50 (funny, interesting, funny)

Reading this solid w/u made me reflect how very far we've come in such a very short time vis a vis technology.  But with these exponential advancements have come astronomical expectations for how companies - technology companies especially, it seems - perform for both users and shareholders.

So my question is, who is this Gates fellow, and does anyone know where I can get a new ribbon for my Underwood No. 5?

Seriously, thefadd makes an good point above when he notes that many successful companies of the past have been able to reposition themselves in the marketplace quite ably when their main cash cows have dried up.  Whether anybody today has enough patience to see this dynamic through might be a different issue, but in the case of Microsoft I think they, at least, will be given ample opportunity to do just that.  

 

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Re: Our Accelerated Age

thefadd.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 02:55:21 PM EST

4.00 (astute, interesting, astute)

On a very general level, I often question the whole "what have you done for me lately" mentality. From sports to politics to movies to business to daily life, I see so many people making definitive proclamations simply on what happened yesterday. Is it a media saturation thing? Is it an internet thing? Is it a 9/11 changed everything thing? I dunno but it puzzles me greatly to see people make hasty short cited assertions. Or am I just having faulty memory of a more glorious past?

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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Re: Our Accelerated Age

keta.

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 05:15:07 PM EST

5.00 (informative, interesting, informative)

This piece was published in Harper's a few years ago, and in it writer/philosopher Mark Kingwell argues that we're hard-wired for speed:

Where, then, are we going in our fast-forward drive toward the future?  Whence this urge, this speedy imperative? Is "technology" to blame? We might derive some solace from distancing ourselves from the principle of our rapidity, from blaming our machines and repeating the mantra that the medium is the message--but this would be too easy. And it would be a lie. Our machines do not make us forget. Our quick vehicles do not cause our panic, our wretched drivenness. The motor of speed, the transcendental impulse, lies buried not in the engine or the microprocessor but within each one of us, in our mortality.

He argues our technologies, and ability to simultaneously do many things at once (none of them overly well, mind) seem to be a product of our need for speed, rather than the cause.  I'm not sure I fully concur, but it's certainly a symbiotic relationship.

(Totally off topic, but if you want to read the best book ever about trout fishing that's not really about trout fishing pick up a copy of Kingwell's