Politics

Iowa Caucus Relatively Real Time Discussion

thefadd.

Posted to Politics on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 03:55:37 PM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

The Republicans and the Democrats are in tight races for their party's nominations, with the first leg being decided, well, now.

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by thefadd, Iowa, election, caucus (all tags)

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7

Re: Iowa Caucus Relatively Real Time Discussion

pO157.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:17:31 PM EST

5.00 (informative, informative)

CNN projects Huckabee to win IA. Could this be the end of the Republican Party as we know it?

Interestingly, the dems are currently too close to call w/ a 3 way tie. It is good to see a lot of Iowans are taking democracy seriously and turning out. CNN is reporting record high levels of voters at the caucus.

Oh, and ZOMG Ron Paul is tied for 3rd.

10

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Re: Iowa Caucus Relatively Real Time Discussion

novy.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:39:34 PM EST

5.00 (informative)

And now CNN projects Barack Obama to win Iowa caucuses with 35% of votes. Although it currently shows both Edwards and Clinton at 31%, Edwards still has more actual votes.

This result should be energising for Obama in New Hampshire, where lately he has been gaining on Clinton. I suspect that victory in New Hampshire makes it much more likely that he carries New Hampshire and then South Carolina. Since he can raise as much money as Clinton can, this victory gives him reasonable shot at taking it all.

On Republican side, Huckabee's 31% to 23% victory over Romney (with Thompson at 13%, McCain at 12%, Giuiani at 11% and Paul at 10%, as I write) gives him real shot at raising big money, and gives McCain real shot at winning New Hampshire. Thompson was hoping to come in 3rd, and he has, but I still don't think this kind of 3rd place finish helps him all that much, since he barely scraped past McCain and Giuliani, who did nothing in Iowa, and Paul, who has been Republican outcast from beginning. Huckabee could win this nomination, no matter what Bush clones think.

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Re: Iowa Caucus Relatively Real Time Discussion

thefadd.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:57:01 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Yeah, the McCain resurgence is an interesting problem for Giuliani. It's interesting the races within the races that have developed on the Republican side. The Dems are pretty straight forward at this point while the fragmentation on the Republican side has made perception and spin all that much more important. Thompson, Giuliani and Romney can all be "in trouble" while still finishing ahead of constant media darling McCain. Edwards has got to be thrilled to be right there with Clinton, though.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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^ 7

Re: Iowa Caucus Relatively Real Time Discussion

thefadd.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:24:59 PM EST

4.00 (funny)

Oh, and ZOMG Ron Paul is tied for 3rd.

woohoo! Now that's the beginning of the Republican party as we once knew it! ;-)

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

9

^ 7

Re: Iowa Caucus Relatively Real Time Discussion

wetkarma.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:26:07 PM EST

4.00 (informative)

I'm watching the CNN coverage on the Republican caucus -- their big pie chart represents Richardson on the democrats side with 2% support, but Ron Paul who has around 10% currently is completely unrepresented with that area of the graph completely completely unlabeled.

Keeping it classy cnn.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

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^ 9

Re: Iowa Caucus Relatively Real Time Discussion

thefadd.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:04:39 PM EST

4.00 (informative)

Here's someone else observing the same RE: Paul and here's CNN's live results page where they're calling it for Obama and Huckabee. Richardson and Kucinich appear to have urged their supporters to go with Obama which may have contributed to his surge away from Clinton and Edwards today.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

16

^ 9

Re: Iowa Caucus Relatively Real Time Discussion

pO157.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:57:17 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

So Paul gets 2.5X the support of 'legit' candidate Rudy Giuliani (although I don't think hizzoner campaigned very strongly in Iowa) and still less the coverage? Awesome.

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^ 7

"Hail to the Chief"

novy.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:09:05 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

I think I just listened to next President of United States of America. Barack Obama victory speech seemed like home run to me. If he wins in New Hampshire next Tuesday he will be Democratic nominee, and if he wins Democratic nomination he will be elected in November.

He did so well in Iowa that 3rd place Hillary Clinton now has to make withdrawal from Iraq top priority in her speeches. (I believe Obama really will withdraw, thank goodness.) Democrats have come together in their policy priorities, while Republicans will still be fighting over what they stand for months from now.

Huckabee's victory speech was good, lots better than Romney's speech. But candidate who represents only fundamentalist Christians really won't bring US together, despite his best intentions. Republicans will cut each other up, while Democrats will fall together, and very soon. Time to read "The Audacity of Hope".

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^ 14

Re: "Hail to the Chief"

Shy Elf.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:02:48 PM EST

5.00 (informative)

This needs a link to the speech.  If Obama wants to impress me with a speech, he'll have to give one with some policy details.  I already knew he was very good in the generalized oratory department.

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

novy.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:48:39 PM EST

none

Obama speech was intended to reach out to potential independents in New Hampshire who might tip him into victory column on Tuesday. That was what he was aiming for, not winning you over, at least not yet. Speech on "policy details" won't come until he accepts nomination, other than reaffirming that he will get US troops out of Iraq, unhook US from oil dependence, and work with Republicans and independents. Speech to which you linked was very effective for its purpose. He was "presidential" and inspirational. Compared to Clinton's speech or Huckabee's speech, his was terrific. If he wins on Tuesday, he will have gotten what he was aiming for.

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

pO157.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 06:16:53 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

He did so well in Iowa that 3rd place Hillary Clinton now has to make withdrawal from Iraq top priority in her speeches. (I believe Obama really will withdraw, thank goodness.)

Anybody else wondering what the over/under is on her giving up her NY Senate seat once she sees her political career is done? According to the local press, she has been missing a boatload of votes and subcommittee meetings (including on issues that affect her state) and far from the best with responding to constituent letters. I, for one, have written several polite, well researched letters (with references) addressing issues I consider important and have received no response besides getting my e-mail put on her spam list.

Democrats have come together in their policy priorities

They have always been together in their policy priorities. Which is why Congress has actually utilized its constitutional power to put up such an effective resistance to Bush '43's shenanigans since the last election. With all due respect, how many bridges can I put you down for?

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

novy.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 07:38:35 AM EST

4.00 (astute)

If she doesn't win this nomination, I expect to see her take her position in US Senate much more seriously. If she has been slacking off lately, it reflects her obsession with winning Democratic nomination, not her boredom with politics. I expect to see her in Senate until she looks very much older than she does now.

"Effective resistance to Bush 43's shenanigans since the last election"? I know I have problems with nuance and sarcasm, but you mean this as joke, right?

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^ 18

Re: "Hail to the Chief"

pO157.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 07:47:12 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

If she doesn't win this nomination, I expect to see her take her position in US Senate much more seriously. If she has been slacking off lately, it reflects her obsession with winning Democratic nomination, not her boredom with politics. I expect to see her in Senate until she looks very much older than she does now.

No matter what happens as you point out it will be interesting to see how she represents New York in the future if her gambit fails. From the start in '01 it was clear to many residents that she was just using the job as a stepping stone. I honestly hope she takes it more seriously in the future, but I will not hold my breath  But, since she is not due for re-election until 2013 and the people have a short memory she could conceivably slack off more for the next year and recover in '09 and nobody would care.

"Effective resistance to Bush 43's shenanigans since the last election"? I know I have problems with nuance and sarcasm, but you mean this as joke, right?

Yeah, that was a joke. Sorry. Believe me, you are not the only who finds it difficult to present sarcasm well in a textual format.

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

novy.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:04:57 AM EST

4.00 (interesting, astute)

I don't think she wins nomination, I think she loses. I wonder if she would be interested in vice presidency on Obama ticket though. Maybe she would be willing to play for long run, especially with Spitzer in position to appoint her replacement to Senate.

If not, she has plenty of time to recover, and I have little doubt she will. Lots of highly respected Senators have never done that well in Presidential races; she wouldn't be anything new.

Maybe Democrats haven't been very effective in standing up to Bush since 2006 elections, but that was one year. When party has effective leader, his policy priorities become their priorities, and his decisions tend to become their decisions. Barack Obama really will get US out of Iraq. Once everyone in Democratic Party realises that their party has commitment to that policy, votes in Congress on that issue will reflect Obama's political calculations and his commitment. That will change things substantially. Bush will either negotiate with Obama or he will begin to look irrelevant as election draws ever closer and his policies become ever more irrelevant and discredited. Will Republicans hold together to bring Bush victories in Congress if their prospective candidate trails Obama by 10 or 15 points? Maybe not, lest they lose any chance of holding seats in Senate and House.

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

Lou.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:31:53 AM EST

4.00 (astute)

I wonder if she would be interested in vice presidency on Obama ticket though.

I sure she would...but would Obama be as dumb as Shrub to pick a power mad politician for a veep?

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

novy.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:49:31 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Vice presidents have as much power as presidents give them and no more. Cheney was given enormous power by Bush because Bush was vacant. Obama will not be vacant.

Obama would gain certain advantages from taking Hillary Clinton as vice presidential nominee. Traditionally, presidential candidates like to choose attack dogs for VP position so that when opponents pull nasty tricks someone other than presidential candidate can bite them. Hillary Clinton can bite. Also, Hillary Clinton would bring substantial (eight-figure) dowry to race. Big money may not buy elections, as Mike Huckabee showed in Iowa, but it never hurts either. Additionally, Obama has already latched on to number of former Clinton economic advisers, and if domestic economy becomes critical issue in November, having Clintons on board (but not in charge) may actually help him. Finally, Clinton may bring substantial number of female voters with her who don't otherwise care about politics but feel empowered by her ascendancy.

No other potential VP brings as much as Hillary Clinton, and her negatives won't matter as much in VP position as they would in presidential position. Plus, offer of VP position to Hillary Clinton (say, right after winning in New Hampshire) might seal deal, setting up Democrat ticket 10 months in advance of election. Usually, party that nominates its candidate earliest wins. This time, Democrats could be months ahead of Republicans.

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

slavdude.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:41:56 AM EST

4.00 (interesting, interesting)

Obama would gain certain advantages from taking Hillary Clinton as vice presidential nominee.

Unfortunately, the fact that she is the Wife of Clenis would probably doom Obama's candidacy if he picked her as his running mate.

Tomorrow I will be sober, but you will still be ugly.

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

novy.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:42:47 PM EST

none

Vice presidential candidates either help or they don't. No one has ever lost election because of terrible vice president (Dan Quayle? Dick Cheney in 2004?). Wife of Satan wouldn't lose Obama this election unless he screwed it up himself.

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:50:12 AM EST

4.00 (funny, funny)

...as dumb as Shrub to pick a power mad politician for a veep?
Ah, so soon that we forget history. Bush didn't pick Cheney to be vice president, he merely picked Cheney to head up a search for a good vice presidential candidate. Cheney failed to find one, so Bush told him he'd have to do it himself.

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^ 24

Read that back to me?

Lou.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 09:35:06 PM EST

4.00 (funny)

Ah, so soon that we forget history. Bush didn't pick Cheney to be vice president, he merely picked Cheney to head up a search for a good vice presidential candidate. Cheney failed to find one, so Bush told him he'd have to do it himself.

Oh yeah...no coincidence there.  No sir.  Yep, and I understand that OJ is still hot on the case of Nicole's killer.  He just hasn't found him yet.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

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^ 21

Re: "Hail to the Chief"

pO157.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 09:18:31 AM EST

4.00 (astute)

That will change things substantially. Bush will either negotiate with Obama or he will begin to look irrelevant as election draws ever closer and his policies become ever more irrelevant and discredited.

Why should Bush negotiate with Obama? Iraq is his "legacy." Pulling the troops out under his watch at the end would be an admission that the biggest decision of his presidency was an error, something he is not willing to do. If he simply leaves everything as is until 1/20/09 the next administration can inherit the mess and the GOP could then claim things were looking up in Iraq until Obama "Cut and Ran."

As for looking even more irrelevant and discredited, well, is such a thing even possible right now?

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

novy.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 09:55:23 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

So long as Republicans in Congress continue to support Bush in maintaining his "legacy", then Bush will be able to maintain troops in Iraq until he leaves office in January 2009. I have no doubt that he will want to do this. However, his ability to rally Republicans around him will depend on developments in presidential race. Consider following scenarios. Fundamentalist Christians effectively choose Huckabee as Republican presidential nominee, and he indicates that he will abandon Bush foreign policy with respect to Iraq if elected. Or Obama wins Democratic nomination very early and maintains ten or fifteen point lead over all potential Republican candidates, pulling up Democratic Senate candidates in polls and pulling up Democratic prospects in House, threatening to install filibuster-proof Democratic majority in Senate. In either case, would Republican Senate and House members sacrifice themselves and their careers to stand up for Bush's "legacy"?

"Discredited" means one thing when you still have chits to call in, another when your closest allies start to wonder if they will still be employed in January 2009.

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

pO157.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:04:58 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

So long as Republicans in Congress continue to support Bush in maintaining his "legacy", then Bush will be able to maintain troops in Iraq until he leaves office in January 2009.

So long as Democrats in Congress continue to be spineless, refuse to stand up for what the majority of the country wants and end the war in Iraq by cutting funds, then Bush will be able to maintain troops in Iraq until he leaves office in January 2009.

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

novy.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 06:37:23 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Democrats wouldn't even control US Senate but for vote of Joe Lieberman, one of Senate's best-known neo-con hawks. If Republican Senators stand together, they have pro-war majority in Senate. Democratic spinelessness mostly illusory, mostly just expressive of disappointment of anti-war elements that they really didn't win 2006 elections, even though they came close.

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Re: "Hail to the Chief"

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 07:59:22 AM EST

3.50 (astute, astute)

From the start in '01 it was clear to many residents that she was just using the job as a stepping stone
You had to be blind not to have seen that in 1999, when she bought the house in Chappaqua.

3

For A Little Comic Relief.

MayorBob.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 04:52:57 PM EST

4.00 (funny)

Here's how things would look if news outlets covered the NFL.

Oct. 29: Fox's Bill O'Reilly questions the patriotism of the Dolphins and Giants for playing in London. "The liberal media whined about Halliburton relocating to Dubai, but where is the outrage over the New York Giants playing in a foreign country?" he yells. "Although quite frankly, if the Dolphins want to move to some other country, I'll be happy to pack their bags."

Illegitimi non carborundum.

4

^ 3

Re: For A Little Comic Relief.

keta.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:04:32 PM EST

4.00 (funny, funny)

Bog help us if those shitheads ever get anywhere near the sacred ground of professional sports.

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^ 4

Bog help us, indeed.

MayorBob.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:16:55 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

Didn't one of the lead shitheads (Rush Limbaugh) already deposit a humongous turd upon the Holy Grail of sports?

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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^ 5

Re: Bog help us, indeed.

keta.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:28:32 PM EST

4.50 (brilliant, funny, funny)

Yeah.  He thought a "power I" meant the coach was in favour of immigration, but he really lost it when an offence ran a "slant left."

13

^ 5

tomato tomah-to

Lou.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:07:02 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

deposit a humongous turd

What some would call a humongous turd others would call a Limbaugh clone.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

15

Oh My

Shy Elf.

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:59:09 AM EST

4.00 (interesting, informative, astute)

Clinton 3rd, Giuliani 6th (4%!), Ron Paul 10%.

Actually going to a caucus is a fairly severe enthusiasm test which is different from a primary, but this shows support for Clinton to be soft, and for Giuliani to be even softer.

1

Re: Iowa Caucus Relatively Real Time Discussion

thefadd.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 04:00:27 PM EST

3.00 (interesting)

First I saw Obama had inched ahead yesterday, then I CNN was reporting today that Clinton is in the lead. With such a close race and so relatively few delegates at stake, I can't see today's results being all that important for the democrats.

The Republicans are a different story. Any chance for Romney to cement himself as the front runner will go a long way to winning him the nomination in the end, I think. Of course if Huckabee comes out on top, all bets are off and I think the whole race is turned upside down.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

2

The Hawkeye Cauci.

MayorBob.

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 04:36:00 PM EST

3.00 (interesting)

Other than occasionally, the eventual party nominee has emerged with the win in Iowa.  Because just about every Democrat has been campaigning in Iowa, it's fair to say that Hawkeye voters will have heard their share about what each candidate has to say.

I'm thinking Clinton manages to pull off a narrow win over Obama and Edwards.  I'm thinking narrow enough that none of those three go into major reconsideration of their campaigns.  I think that Richardson and Dodd drop out.  If Biden manages to end up with double digits in percentage points of the caucus votes, he's in till Super Tuesday and then he can take life easy from there on out.

Without Giuliani in the race, it's difficult to point to Iowa to say anything definitive about the outcome unless Huckabee manages to really thrash the field that's in the mix.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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