Politics

This Will End Well.

MayorBob.

Posted to Politics on Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 10:24:28 AM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

For anyone who's been asleep the past quarter century, Turkey has been having a problem with the Kurds.  That would be the Kurds inside Turkey as well as outside Turkey.  The pointy end of this spear are members of the political/military group known as the Kurdish Workers Party (PPK).  

The Kurdish problem which has suddenly grown beyond merely a Turkish-Kurdish thing is the Kurdish separatists using territory in northern Iraq as a home base.  The problem is now officially a crisis as, in spite of opposition from the US and the European Union, the Turkish Army launched a land assault into northern Iraq to get at the PPK there.

This most recent incident followed months after last year's incursion into Iraq by Turkey.  That incursion, which caused heartburn all over Europe, was small in comparison to this one.  While Iraq's foreign minister said this invasion only involved a few hundred troops, the story from Ankara was quite different.  A Turkish military source said "thousands of troops have crossed the border and thousands more are waiting at the border to join them if necessary."  US military spokesman in Baghdad, Rear Admiral Gregory Smith, was apparently trying to put the best spin he could on events saying the incursion looked to be "limited" in scope.

This wasn't the view from the US State Department which called the invasion "not the best news."  The Turkish military said the operation was limited and that Turkish forces would be withdrawn as soon as "goals have been achieved."  Turkey, while a NATO member, has been attempting to become a member of the European Union for many years.  But, as recently as two years ago, most experts believed that membership would only be granted after certain issues were resolved.  The still unresolved Cyprus question, in addition to Turkey's problematic human rights record vis-a-vis the Armenian minority and the Kurdish issue, amount to roadblocks to EU membership for Turkey.  EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana underscored the difficulties this latest incident presents for Turkish membership: "We understand the concerns of Turkey ... but we think this action is not the best response. The territorial integrity of Iraq is for us very important."

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by MayorBob, Turkey, Iraq, Kurds, military invasion, PPK, European Union (all tags)

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1

The Kurds should declare independence

Acefantastik.

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 04:11:42 PM EST

4.00 (funny)

I'm sure that the United States, Germany, Britain, France, and Denmark will rush to recognize the new nation of Kurdistan.  Probably not Serbia or Russia, though.  

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Re: The Kurds should declare independence

thefadd.

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 04:52:56 PM EST

4.00

how do I mod +1 sarcastic?

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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Re: The Kurds should declare independence

novy.

Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 08:14:06 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

I know you meant this as joke, but actually Russia and Serbia really might recognise independent Kurdistan, since Turkey recognised independent Kosovo. But US would probably be apoplectic, since its foreign policy since 2003 has been to keep Iraq together at all costs, no doubt to placate Saudi Arabia. Hence its allies in Europe would probably be hesitant at best to recognise Kurdistan.

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Re: The Kurds should declare independence

thefadd.

Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 08:05:16 PM EST

none

Iraq needs the Kurds and at the end of the day, I think the Kurds generally recognize that they're better off as part of a united Iraq. In a stable Iraq, the Kurds could wield a great deal more power than they could in an independent Kurdistan. But right now they rightly see an Iraq that simply isn't stable enough to build a powerbase on.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

2

Honest (Probably Naive) Question

pO157.

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 04:21:07 PM EST

3.00 (funny)

The Iraqis (Sunny/Shia) areas probably are too busy with their shenanigans to care about the Kurds. Some news reports imply that is the only reason that has its act together. The Turks are obviously irritated with Kurdish shenanigans occurring on their side of the frontier from separatists.

Wouldn't it be a good idea for the US and Iraq to arrange for a separation of an independent nation from Iraq? The land would be area controlled and administered by the Kurds anyway that was generally outside the control of Saddam and had been independent for years before US intervention. Currently that region has little in common with the rest of Iraq and may consider breaking off anyway to avoid being caught up in the chaos. In exchange for recognition from Turkey, Iraq, and the World the Kurds would agree to stop starting trouble on the Turkish side of the border and agree to forever waive any and all claims to land currently held by Turkey. Iraq would lose some land but would have one less foreign affairs problem to deal with and not have to worry about a Turkish invasion undermining whatever government stability there is.

A little bit of luck and goodwill on all sides could surely settle this, right?

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Re: Honest (Probably Naive) Question

Acefantastik.

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 04:47:13 PM EST

5.00 (interesting, astute)

Nice thought, but I am more cynical than you.

Wouldn't it be a good idea for the US and Iraq to arrange for a separation of an independent nation from Iraq?

It would be a bad idea for Iraq to lose a substantial part of its oil wealth to a new nation that isn't likely to share much of the profits.  It isn't a good idea for the US to suddenly be responsible for a brand new country that will be in a low-grade war with Turkey for years to come, and will likely be victim to Iranian meddling for the same amount of time.  

In exchange for recognition from Turkey, Iraq, and the World the Kurds would agree to stop starting trouble on the Turkish side of the border and agree to forever waive any and all claims to land currently held by Turkey.

Some Kurds also claim land in Iran, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.  Some Palestinians claim the rights to all of the British Mandate of Palestine.  Some Jews claim the rights to a much larger version of Israel than currently exists.   Some Irish claim the rights to the entire island of Ireland.  Some Serbs claim the rights to the entirety of ancient Serb lands.      Independence and nationalist movements rarely have a group willing to settle for just so much.

Iraq would lose some land but would have one less foreign affairs problem to deal with

No, they would just have one different foreign affairs problem to deal with.

I wouldn't want you to think that I am anti-Kurd.  Quite the contrary.  However, I think that all the pro-independence Kurds in America need to seriously consider what will happen in the weeks and decades following Kurdish independence--it will make this current Kosovo flareup look like a free and fair election.  

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Re: Honest (Probably Naive) Question

port1080.

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 05:32:34 PM EST

5.00 (informative, interesting)

People go back and forth on the wisdom of partitioning states based on ethnic lines. Some people think that multi-ethnic states should be maintained, because (theoretically) it's better to have the ethnic groups settle their differences within a democratic state than it is to have them in two separate countries which might then go to war. Partition also always raises the nasty business of ethnic cleansing - there will always be people of the wrong color/creed/language on the wrong side of the border. We're seeing that right now - what do you do with the 10% of Kosovo's population that's Serbian? Sometimes it seems better to just keep the state together and hope for the best. That said, I think that scholarly opinion is turning towards partition as being the best option. Here's a good paper by Chaim Kaufman (he's written about this a lot, but this was the first thing I turned up that I could link to for free) which sort of gives an overview of where we're at and what the different options are. Kaufman obviously strongly favors partition, but, frankly, his recent writings and scholarship have been good enough that I think he's swayed a lot of people who used to be on the fence.

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Re: Honest (Probably Naive) Question

thefadd.

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 06:19:09 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

The Kosovo question is especially complex because in a united Serbia, the ethnic Albanians are an oppressed minority. They go and make their own country, now the ethnic Serbs are an oppressed minority.

While things could always change, the Kurds have long proved themselves to be one of the more mature, peaceful and responsible groups in the area. The US already let them hang once when they rebelled against Saddam Hussein after '91. By all accounts, they would likely one run of the most stable, progressive nations in the region. At that point, it does become a bit of a Kashmir-type question as with India, however. There are a great many Kurds in Turkey and Turkey is hell bent on not allowing them to establish a power base to Turkey's south. Absent the Turkish question, I think they would have left Iraq 5 years ago with little the rest of the country would have had much to say about. Having their druthers, they'll take Kurdistan because it's stable and has additional, but Turkey is absolutely the reason the Kurds aren't independent today.

While the Kurds are a minority in Iraq, they are a powerful minority and not an oppressed one. Based on past history, it's also likely that they wouldn't carry out a great deal of oppression upon an ethnic minorities in Kurdistan so I don't think it's akin to the Kosovo situation.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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Re: Honest (Probably Naive) Question

port1080.

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 06:53:38 PM EST

none

Based on past history, it's also likely that they wouldn't carry out a great deal of oppression upon an ethnic minorities in Kurdistan so I don't think it's akin to the Kosovo situation.

The Arabs who have been forced out of their homes in Kirkuk would probably disagree with you.

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Re: Honest (Probably Naive) Question

thefadd.

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 08:19:53 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

Are you referring to the one sentence in in your link right before the sentence that says, "Kurdish leaders have appealed to their constituents to be patient and let a legal process determine property rights." Yeah, those Kurdish leaders sure are unreasonable bastards.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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Re: Honest (Probably Naive) Question

port1080.

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 08:25:52 PM EST

none

Serbia's leaders just recently appealed to their population to react calmly and respect the rule of law in their reaction to Kosovo's declaration of independence, and we all saw how that worked out. With respect to ethnic conflict, what politicians say is one thing, but what the population does is often another. Compared to the Sunni & Shia areas, Kurdistan is indeed very well run, but it's not the happy multi-ethnic paradise you're making it out to be either. There are plenty of tensions, there is a substantial Arab minority, and there's no guarantee that the Kurdish everyman is going to be willing to respect the rights of Arabs to live peacefully among them, even if the Kurdish politicians wish to resolve the situation peacefully.

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Re: Honest (Probably Naive) Question

Shy Elf.

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 11:36:36 PM EST

none

Good link.

To restate the obvious, even though violence in the Kurdish parts of Iraq has been much less than elsewhere, it is most likely already passed the tipping point where the best solution is segregation.  The problem is that Turkey will intervene militarily to prevent this from happening, because any free Kurdistan would result in supporting violence in Turkey in protest of Turkish oppression of Kurds.

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