Like Lemmings Off a Cliff...
port1080.
Posted to Politics on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 02:59:31 AM EST (promoted by 1fastdog). RSS.
A new report by the trustees for Medicare and Social Security suggests that current spending rates will drive the two large entitlement programs to insolvency within the next few decades. Medicare is expected to go bust first - by 2019 - but Social Security will follow soon after and run out of funds sometime around 2041.
If that sounds bad, in some ways it's even worse than you'd think. Both programs will begin spending more each year than they are collecting in taxes very shortly. Medicare will probably start drawing down its reserves starting sometime next year, and Social Security will be forced to do the same starting around 2017.
Blame largely falls at the feet of the 1950s baby boom. The large number of new workers generated by the boom created a large bulge in incoming revenue over the last 40 years, which helped sustain an otherwise poorly designed program. Now that those workers are retiring, however, and beginning to draw on their benefits, revenues are quickly flowing in the other directions and all the program's funding flaws are magnified.
Social Security was created at the height of the Great Depression as a means of providing some support for those who could no longer work due to old age or disability. Although partly structured and often sold as a retirement program, its funding structure relies on current wage earners to pay for the benefits drawn out by current beneficiaries (an artifact of the need to immediately begin paying out benefits during the Depression).
This was further exacerbated by the 1950s and 1960s expansions of the program, which added a number of new potential beneficiaries (including many who would be unlikely to pay as much into the system as they would draw out). Medical advances increasing the average life expectancy further complicated things, as there is no maximum cap to the amount of benefits that can be drawn.
Medicare faces similar problems, as it too has no maximum withdrawal caps. In addition to facing the same cost pressures as Social Security, Medicare has also had to deal with funding the rising cost of advanced medical procedures, as well as the added cost of prescription drug coverage created as part of the 2003 Medicare Prescription Drug Act.
With per-person withdrawals from Medicare and Social Security only likely to increase, where will the money come from to pay for the coming shortfalls? With a recession economic slowdown in full force tax revenues are unlikely to increase faster than expected rates. Repealing the Bush tax cuts will help alleviate some revenue issues, but this will not solve the Social Security solvency crisis unless Congress is willing to appropriate funds from the general fund to make up for the shortfalls. In any case, it's not clear that anyone will be happy to see a tax increase during an economic down-time (or that such a tax increase would be wise).
Reform of Social Security has been an infamous "third rail" of American politics. Bush's efforts to push for privatization of the Social Security system failed miserably in 2004, despite the fact that his party controlled both Houses of Congress. Will the coming administration have better luck? Can those of us who expect to live past 2041 expect to rely on Social Security for part of our retirement income, or is it time to start burying gold bars in the basement?
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