Politics

Like Lemmings Off a Cliff...

port1080.

Posted to Politics on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 02:59:31 AM EST (promoted by 1fastdog). RSS.

A new report by the trustees for Medicare and Social Security suggests that current spending rates will drive the two large entitlement programs to insolvency within the next few decades. Medicare is expected to go bust first - by 2019 - but Social Security will follow soon after and run out of funds sometime around 2041.

If that sounds bad, in some ways it's even worse than you'd think. Both programs will begin spending more each year than they are collecting in taxes very shortly. Medicare will probably start drawing down its reserves starting sometime next year, and Social Security will be forced to do the same starting around 2017.

Blame largely falls at the feet of the 1950s baby boom. The large number of new workers generated by the boom created a large bulge in incoming revenue over the last 40 years, which helped sustain an otherwise poorly designed program. Now that those workers are retiring, however, and beginning to draw on their benefits, revenues are quickly flowing in the other directions and all the program's funding flaws are magnified.

Social Security was created at the height of the Great Depression as a means of providing some support for those who could no longer work due to old age or disability. Although partly structured and often sold as a retirement program, its funding structure relies on current wage earners to pay for the benefits drawn out by current beneficiaries (an artifact of the need to immediately begin paying out benefits during the Depression).

This was further exacerbated by the 1950s and 1960s expansions of the program, which added a number of new potential beneficiaries (including many who would be unlikely to pay as much into the system as they would draw out). Medical advances increasing the average life expectancy further complicated things, as there is no maximum cap to the amount of benefits that can be drawn.

Medicare faces similar problems, as it too has no maximum withdrawal caps. In addition to facing the same cost pressures as Social Security, Medicare has also had to deal with funding the rising cost of advanced medical procedures, as well as the added cost of prescription drug coverage created as part of the 2003 Medicare Prescription Drug Act.

With per-person withdrawals from Medicare and Social Security only likely to increase, where will the money come from to pay for the coming shortfalls? With a recession economic slowdown in full force tax revenues are unlikely to increase faster than expected rates. Repealing the Bush tax cuts will help alleviate some revenue issues, but this will not solve the Social Security solvency crisis unless Congress is willing to appropriate funds from the general fund to make up for the shortfalls. In any case, it's not clear that anyone will be happy to see a tax increase during an economic down-time (or that such a tax increase would be wise).

Reform of Social Security has been an infamous "third rail" of American politics. Bush's efforts to push for privatization of the Social Security system failed miserably in 2004, despite the fact that his party controlled both Houses of Congress. Will the coming administration have better luck? Can those of us who expect to live past 2041 expect to rely on Social Security for part of our retirement income, or is it time to start burying gold bars in the basement?

Tags: written by Port1080, edited by 1fastdog, money, baby boom, Social Security, politics (all tags)

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1

Perfect place for scare quotes

JimmyHavok.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 05:55:30 AM EST

5.00

The "warnings" of a "crash" in Social Security have been waved at us for decades now, and the supposed date of the "crash" keeps getting further and further away.  I recall when it was supposed to be the year I qualify for SS...now, I'll be pushing a hundred when it's going to "crash."  The most amusing thing about it has been how the "crash" date has moved away almost every year, sometimes by two or three years in a single year, and yet the cries of "looming crisis!" have never stopped for a moment.  The Bush economy has been the first time in recent history when the "crash" date didn't recede by at least a year.

Ten years ago, Doug Henwood explained everything you need to know to understand what a bunch of crap the "crisis" is.  Back then, the crash was supposed to come in 2032, boogah boogah!   But Henwood demonstrates how the books are cooked, using the Social Security Trustees' own figures.

Take what he tells you and look at the reports over the years.  As he points out, the projections become more and more pessimistic every year, to the point where the optimistic scenario is the same as what was presented as a pessimistic scenario a few years earlier.  If our economy does as poorly as these projections show, we'll have a lot more to worry about than Social Security.

I can't say anything about Medicare, but considering that the sources of the scare are the same, I have to say I don't have any worries other than that the scare will be used to make sure I get kicked to the curb when I'm old and decrepit.

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Re: Perfect place for scare quotes

port1080.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:52:34 AM EST

none

Interesting article. The one issue I have with it is his statement that "And even if the official bearish projections turn out to be true, the shortfall could be made up easily by subjecting investment income to Social Security taxes, and by eliminating the cap that exempts wage income above a certain maximum". The use of the word "easily" there is a little questionable. While it's true that in pure monetary terms, it would "easily" make up the difference, from a political standpoint I think it would be difficult. I actually think it might be easier for Congress to let things get to a crisis point and then appropriate funds out of the general revenue stream. In any case, it just seems unwise to me to rely on a funding mechanism that requires constant labor expansion and productivity growth. Doing so basically ensures that a crisis will hit at exactly the time we could least afford to deal with it - during an extended economic crisis. All the projections are just that - projections. You could be right and Social Security could be completely solvent in 2041, but it's also quite possible that things will turn out for the worse and we'll bankrupt it sooner. I don't think that privatization is the answer, but I do think that the whole system should be re-worked to make the funding arrangement more fiscally stable.

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Re: Perfect place for scare quotes

JimmyHavok.

Sat Mar 29, 2008 at 02:35:57 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

I don't think we'll see the productivity drop that is predicted, because people are living longer and healthier lives, so more of them will be forgoing retirement for continued careers.  I think we'll be seeing a lot more entrepreneurial oldsters, since Social Security will give them the slack to take a chance on going into business for themselves, and they'll have a lifetime of experience to draw on.

We'll probably see a workforce that is supplemented by immigrants, just like we do now.  There's no way that the current nativism could survive in a world where there aren't enough kids to take on the entry level jobs.  We need to start preparing for that by helping the countries that are likely to be sources of immigrants (probably the same countries that are sources right now) improve their educational systems.

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Re: Perfect place for scare quotes

skeeter1.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 03:11:18 PM EST

none

"The "warnings" of a "crash" in Social Security have been waved at us for decades now, and the supposed date of the "crash" keeps getting further and further away."

I've been listening to the Chicken Little stories for about as many years as I've been alive (and that would be many).  It's not going to happen in my lifetime, and probably not the next generation's as well.  

there's only one way to find out...

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Another Social Security scam

jwb.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:30:13 AM EST

5.00 (interesting)

The whole "crisis" is a scam.  The supposed insolvency of Social Security is marked at the time when SS begins paying out more than it collects.  The joke is that SS has been collecting more than it pays out for decades.  Therefore there is an enormous surplus of funds ready to cover the future outgoing cash flow.  The problem is that Reagan spent all the money in the SS fund, so SS's fund is in the form of debt instead of cash.  If the government chooses to let Social Security swing, instead of paying back its debt, then yes, of course there is a crisis.  But if the government instead pays back its debt to Social Security, then there is no crisis.

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Re: Another Social Security scam

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:39:27 AM EST

none

if the government instead pays back its debt to Social Security, then there is no crisis
Ignorant statements like that show why there is a Social Security crisis: People do not seem to understand where the government gets its money. The crisis is not the Social Security fund running out of IOUs, the crisis is that taxes will have to be dramatically raised in the future in order to make SS payments.

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Raise taxes to pay ss?

shane.

Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:41:38 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

As if.  The US government has been running at a deficit for years.  What makes social security so special that the government can't just borrow money for that too?  The looming crisis is that the government can't pay its bills and hasn't been able to for years.   That's a bigger story than a social program that might dip into the red in a few decades.

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Re: Raise taxes to pay ss?

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:08:40 PM EST

none

What makes social security so special that the government can't just borrow money for that too?
Nothing, I guess, except that the amounts of money are an order of magnitude larger.

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Re: Raise taxes to pay ss?

JimmyHavok.

Sat Mar 29, 2008 at 07:18:04 AM EST

2.00 (obnoxious)

Here, let me fix that.

Nothing, I guess, except that the amounts of bullshit are an order of magnitude larger.

All factual now!

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Re: Another Social Security scam

JimmyHavok.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 09:34:48 PM EST

none

The crisis is not the Social Security fund running out of IOUs, the crisis is that taxes will have to be dramatically raised in the future in order to make SS payments.

That's what happens when you deliberately use SS funds to finance the government.  It is a deliberate policy to move the tax burden downward onto the lower classes.

Thank you, Alan Greenspan.  You knew you'd be dead by the time those chickens showed up, didn't you?

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Re: Another Social Security scam

port1080.

Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:00:56 AM EST

none

That's what happens when you deliberately use SS funds to finance the government. It is a deliberate policy to move the tax burden downward onto the lower classes.

It's not clear to me that borrowing from the SS fund surplus is a bad thing, if we have to borrow (now, I do think we should do a LOT less borrowing). When the government borrows from SS, it does so by having the SS fund buy T-bills, which pay interest (although at a low rate). These are the same T-bills that we're up to the hock in with China, etc. If we stopped using the SS fund to buy T-bills, but continued the same level of deficit spending that we're doing, we'd just have to sell more T-bills to foreign countries. The only way that this becomes a re-distributive down to the lower classes is if we 'fix' social security by just straight up raising the rates but keeping the tax otherwise essentially the same.

It seems much more likely to me that if SS is fixed by raising taxes, that this would be done by either adding the SS tax to investment income or lifting the upper income cap to include higher income folks in the pool. Either option would be more politically feasible, I think, than directly raising rates for the poor. People don't like to see their tax bills go up directly - that's why Republicans always cut taxes for everyone. Their trick, of course, is that they have been cutting taxes for the middle class and poor by just a little, but cutting them for the rich by a lot. This way everyone feels like they're getting a break, but of course it's subtly shifting the tax burden downward, on a percentage basis. For each individual person, though, it's always a tax cut, so it seems like a good thing.

That's a viable strategy for tax cutting, but I don't think that the reverse really works for tax raising. Any time you start raising taxes people immediately get cranky (see Bush the First). If taxes have to start going up again, people are going to want to see the rich pay first. Since the poor outnumber the rich, I don't see how a tax increase that fell disproportionately on the poor would be politically viable, unless there was some kind of trickery involved. Given that a tax increase always gets far more scrutiny that a tax decrease, I just don't think that it would be possible for that level of trickery to go undetected.

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Re: Another Social Security scam

JimmyHavok.

Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:28:47 PM EST

none

FISA is a regressive tax on the lower classes.  It was raised well above the "pay as you go" rate back in the '80s on the advice of a commission headed by Alan Greenspan, and by mere coincidence I'm sure, the ballooning deficit of the time was then financed by the increased SS revenues.  It was used as a stealth tax to push the costs of government down onto the wage-earning class, and off of the dividend-income class.

You are correct in your assessment of that Republican tactic for shifting the tax burden downward.  Another tactic which was not quite as successful is the attempt to remove taxes on dividend income.  While the tax on dividends was not completely removed, it was fixed at a lower rate, which means that if a person in a lower tax bracket earns dividends, he pays a higher income tax on them than he does on his wages (although the wages also have a 14% flat tax as well, so the dividends still come out taxed at a lower rate) while a person in the top tax bracket actually gets a lower tax rate on his dividend income.

The tactic of differential tax cuts will eventually blow back on the Republicans, of course, for the very reason you noted.  There are more wage-earners than dividend earners.

It used to be that the dividend-earning class had overwhelming political power to protect it from the blow-back, because power emerges from the dollars in a wallet.  But now, with internet fundraising, the sheer mass of wage-earners' wallets  is starting to dwarf the sheer mass of dividend-earners' dollars, and I suspect we are going to see that blow-back very soon.

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Re: Another Social Security scam

port1080.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:40:55 AM EST

none

Did you even read the entire writeup? From the second paragraph:

If that sounds bad, in some ways it's even worse than you'd think. Both programs will begin spending more each year than they are collecting in taxes very shortly. Medicare will probably start drawing down its reserves starting sometime next year, and Social Security will be forced to do the same starting around 2017.

Both funds will begin drawing down their reserves very, very soon. The 2019 and 2041 dates are the point at which they will have drawn down those reserves entirely and will therefore have to start cutting benefits (or be allocated funds from general tax revenues). These projections all assume that the government will continue to pay back the T-bills that the SS fund is invested in. It the government defaults then things come crashing down even more quickly (although if the government defaults, we probably have much bigger problems on our hands...).

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Re: Another Social Security scam

MayorBob.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:58:42 AM EST

none

"But if the government instead pays back its debt to Social Security, then there is no crisis."

And just where does the government go to find the money to pay "back its debt to Social Security?  Here's a hint -- it's an anagram of the name of the second largest state in the US.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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Re: Another Social Security scam

skeptic.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 01:09:26 PM EST

none

This brings us to the real problem, the American addiction to borrowing.  The design of Social Security and Medicare may not be ideal, but the real problem is the use of their reserves to fund still more borrowing, adding to the ridiculous multi-trillion dollar national debt which the US has by now accumulated after many decades of irresponsible spending.

The appeal of borrowing is that taxpayers get the spending that they want (whether on social programs, on national security issues, or whatever) without having to pay the higher taxes that would be required to balance the yearly budget.  It is always easier to put off payment for some unspecified future date.  With any luck, you don't ever have to repay the debt in your lifetime, you can just bequeath it to future generations.

This process, however, cannot be extended without limit, because taxpayers do at last have to make the interest payments, even if they do not repay the principal.  And these interest payments are getting extremely large, and already constitute a sizable fraction of total government spending.  When the time comes (as seemingly it must) when no more loans can be obtained simply because the lenders will realize that the government won't be able to meet the interest payments, then the practice of deficit spending will come to a grinding halt, and it will be quite a shock.  In the end, there is no free lunch.  Taxpayers do eventually have to pay for the government services that they want, plus the interest that is owed as a result of all the loans that were made in order to delay making those payments for government services.  And if taxpayers cannot afford to repay the loans, they will be left paying the interest on those loans forever, or until the US as a nation officially declares bankruptcy.

This is a sad fate for what has until recently been the wealthiest and most successful nation on Earth.  Sic transit gloria mundi.

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Re: Another Social Security scam

port1080.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 01:45:52 PM EST

none

And if taxpayers cannot afford to repay the loans, they will be left paying the interest on those loans forever, or until the US as a nation officially declares bankruptcy.

It seems unlikely to me that we'll ever really get to that point. For better or worse, the IMF and the rest of the world could probably be relied on to bail us out, although we'd surely have to impose many of the sort of deficit control restrictions and so on that we've forced on the rest of the world over the last couple of decades. The most instructive example here is probably the late 1970s debt crisis that the UK faced (or France's about face on neo-liberalism in the wake of the disaster 1981-1982 economic collapse spurred by Mitterrand's dirigeste economic program). It would be painful, certainly, but I don't think we would necessarily see anything like a total economic collapse.

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Re: Another Social Security scam

skeptic.

Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:13:20 PM EST

none

It is actually a fascinating suggestion, and one which had never occurred to me, that the financial problems of the US will eventually be solved through the intervention of the IMF.  It almost makes me feel more optimistic about the future.  But I don't really believe it.  If the time should come when the US has gotten itself into such a mess that only the IMF can stave off national bankruptcy, chances are the whole world will also be in a terrible mess, and the IMF will not even remotely have the resources to solve that kind of global catastrophe.  When the meltdown comes, it is likely to overwhelm all existing remedial mechanisms.  But who knows, maybe things won't really be that bad.  We shall see.

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Re: Another Social Security scam

port1080.

Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:29:41 PM EST

none

If the time should come when the US has gotten itself into such a mess that only the IMF can stave off national bankruptcy, chances are the whole world will also be in a terrible mess, and the IMF will not even remotely have the resources to solve that kind of global catastrophe.

A few years ago I would have agreed with you, but my hope is that the EU, combined with an East Asia (which has developed much better economic inter-cooperation itself since the '97 Asian Financial Crisis) lynch pinned by Japan and China, would be capable of bailing us out. Ironically this becomes more and more true as the value of the dollar falls - as the US economy shrinks vis-a-vis the rest of the world, the rest of the world has relatively more resources to help us out. If we see a sudden, catastrophic crash right now, then of course it would be a disaster. And if we see a world-wide economic collapse, that too would be a disaster. But I think if we just see a prolonged malaise, followed by a US-specific debt crisis, that this is something that could be managed.

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Re: Another Social Security scam

skeptic.

Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:40:50 PM EST

none

That is a very reasonable analysis, and it's quite true that the growing economies of China and India could potentially compensate for weakness in the US economy.  But looking at the larger picture, the as-yet-unresolved and possibly unresolvable problem of the war on terror, the ever-growing problems of global warming, the ever-growing global population, the growing shortages of food and drinking water, and so forth, I still have to say that things are not going to work out so nicely.  Although it is, even now, not too late to fix things.  It would take an enormous and unprecedented global re-organization (presumably orchestrated through the UN, the only international agency which seems to have the potential for that kind of far-reaching global cooperation) to move the world in a positive direction, and it doesn't seem likely to happen, but it isn't impossible.

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socializing costs, privatizing profits

JimmyHavok.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 10:56:52 PM EST

none

The interest payments on the national debt are the whole point.  They are a redistribution scheme from the poor to the rich.

Back in the late '80s when the national debt first became a concern, there was an article in one of the conservative journals about how it wasn't actually a problem, because the interest was going to People Like Us.  I believe it was written by Casper Wienberger.  It was remarkably candid.

I've tried to track it down recently, but haven't ever managed to do so.

The debt is also used in order to provide the argument that we just can't afford all those nice social services that we'd like to provide.  For some reason, this argument is never used against the latest huge defense contract.  We can always afford a huge, half-secret military budget, we just can't afford to maintain our roads and bridges or our social infrastructure.

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Re: socializing costs, privatizing profits

skeptic.

Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:09:04 PM EST

none

It's true that it is the rich who lend money to the federal government (through the purchase of T-bills or other bonds) and who therefore are the ones to benefit from the resulting interest payments, although it seems to me that there would still be various other investments that could easily be made, such as investment in the stock market; it's not as if the wealthy really need to get the government to borrow money in order to create investment opportunities for themselves - although it may be that lending to the government is a particularly advantageous investment.

But I agree that it is very fishy how government indebtedness is seen as an obstacle to needed social services, yet somehow it never gets in the way of bloated military contracts.

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Re: Another Social Security scam

jwb.

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 02:43:19 PM EST

none

Well that's just exactly my point.  All the borrowing starting with Reagan and continuing to the present day has been a stealth tax on the future.  Except what used to be the future is swiftly becoming the present.

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