SciTech

'Peak' Food

thefadd.

Posted to SciTech on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 10:12:10 AM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

World hunger has long been a problem but typically the starving have had the decency to die in silence. Rising food prices, however, have caused shortages in places that aren't quite so used to starving.

Haiti, Uzbekistan and Egypt have seen increasing unrest and deaths in bread lines and riots in the face of hungry populaces. Massive rises in the costs of rice and wheat as well as transportation costs and the move of some farmers to grow corn for ethanol have driven upward the price of feeding the world's people. How long until such strife reaches the shores of more developed nations?

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by thefadd, food, peak food, riots (all tags)

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2

Re: 'Peak' Food

rEvolution inAction.

Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 12:22:54 PM EST

4.50 (astute, astute)

We do not have a food problem, we have a distribution problem.

Tipping Sacred Cows

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Re: 'Peak' Food

thefadd.

Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 12:35:53 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

That is certainly true now but given the limited nature of our distribution resources (oil) at what point does that go back to being a food problem...ie there may be lots of food in one place but it simply can't be distributed to another place?

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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Re: 'Peak' Food

rEvolution inAction.

Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 02:09:46 PM EST

none

there is no distribution resources supply problem, only a distribution problem.

Tipping Sacred Cows

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Re: 'Peak' Food

pO157.

Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:21:52 AM EST

none

What if a drought hits, like the last link in thefadd's wonderful writeup implies? All the midnight trains going anywhere won't help at that point.

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Re: 'Peak' Food

rEvolution inAction.

Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:10:30 AM EST

none

so you're saying that a worldwide drought could eliminate all the world's food supplies... that would hurt us bad, not just us but every living thing on the planet (with the possible exception of the ocean's creatures). If the drought doesn't last long (as in years) one solution would be slaughtering the majority of our herds. More meat and less grain in our diets, also a much smaller drain on available water supplies which could help. Since fish stocks are nearly gone we don't really have the option to switch to another food source, all we could do is manage what we do have. Of course, food would be the least of our concerns as water is already hard to find and much less portable than foodstuff so in the case of such a drought so severe that our food supplies were compromised the first thing we'd have to worry about would be new water sources (whether they be new aquifers or mass desalination projects).

Tipping Sacred Cows

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Re: 'Peak' Food

Shy Elf.

Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 01:13:01 PM EST

none

We're already in this situation in significant part because of persistent droughts in Australia and China which are associated with a very large la Nina of a type typically seen every only every fifteen years or so.  There's a still scientific disagreement as to whether this kind of weather pattern will become more more common with global climate change, which means we can't really count on having the climate we've been accustomed to.

Worldwide grain output has been rising steadily over the long term, but has over the past decade or so been rising slower than population growth.  Add in people in China eating more meat because they can now afford it and biofuels and it puts is in a shortage situation which would see rising prices even without the droughts.

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Re: 'Peak' Food

rEvolution inAction.

Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:36:03 AM EST

none

a true shortasge is when there isn;t enough to go around.. not when the surplus lowers to the point where it starts affecting prices... the fact that there are prices for food is the first problem.

Tipping Sacred Cows

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Re: 'Peak' Food

pO157.

Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:10:25 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

a true shortasge is when there isn;t enough to go around.. not when the surplus lowers to the point where it starts affecting prices... the fact that there are prices for food is the first problem.

But unless they hand out coupon books and ration cards there always will be a price associated. If they can only feed 50% of the world's population due to a grain shortage I would be the price would skyrocket. Perhaps price is a symptom of a problem, not the problem itself?

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Re: 'Peak' Food

rEvolution inAction.

Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 03:43:34 PM EST

none

No the problem really is that food has a price rather than being regarded as a human right.

Tipping Sacred Cows

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Re: 'Peak' Food

pO157.

Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 04:03:48 PM EST

none

Then how do they compensate the farmers who make it, truckers who ship it, merchants who sell it?
What about health care? Surely everybody should have the right to go to the doctor anytime they want without charge. Tough for the MD and his staff, they went to college and took on those loans for nothing. What about drugs? What about the scientists who designed them and his family? What about a house? Everybody should be entitled to a house (and a car) to let their kids run around. Right?

Why deny anybody anything?

If you start down that path then we end up with communism or something, which would be a bad thing.

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Re: 'Peak' Food

rEvolution inAction.

Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:25:23 PM EST

none

compensate the farmers?!?!? you got it all wrong.. the farmers have to compensate to every single living being on the planet for taking away land from them. It's not like land can belong to anyone, right?

Tipping Sacred Cows

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Re: 'Peak' Food

pO157.

Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 08:47:21 AM EST

none

Your right. Possessions and land belong to the strongest.

Hey, party at your house tonight, right? We can crash it because we feel like it?

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Re: 'Peak' Food

rEvolution inAction.

Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 10:00:23 AM EST

none

The strongest? You'd make a good fascist (or Republican) I guess.. I believe that land belongs to everyone not some select few (no matter how they are chosen it is still theft... even if the land is 'developped' and 'worked' within a family... that family is stealing that land form everyone else). Every square foot of privately owned land is an affront to the concept of freedom and to look at it any other way devalues our own rights as people.

Tipping Sacred Cows

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Re: 'Peak' Food

pO157.

Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 10:27:29 AM EST

none

Wow.

So how are we supposed to decide who gets to work the land? Why should a farmer plant crops if somebody else can waltz in and say, hey, I am going to appropriate it for my own needs?

Are you suggesting some kind of global communist collective?

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Re: 'Peak' Food

rEvolution inAction.

Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 10:23:15 AM EST

none

That's the whole point.. no one should be able to appropriate any land and there should be no one to appropriate it from.

If you think a global communist collective would work, then that would be the direction we should be aiming for. I'm really kind of fuzzy on those details (I know there are solutions that would work but I'm not really championing any single one of them), I just know that it's the only fair way (I guess a compromise could be the fair compensation to the global population by land owners but I doubt that landowners would be able to survive financialy while paying a fair share).

Tipping Sacred Cows

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Re: 'Peak' Food

pO157.

Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 05:26:20 PM EST

none

The US welfare state is a blatant failure. It has created of generations of people who have no interest in anything other than just taking what they can get for free.

I shudder to imagine what would happen if we went from a system where a portion of people's income is removed to subsidize the lifestyles of other able bodied people to a system where property rights are completely abolished.

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Re: 'Peak' Food

rEvolution inAction.

Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:31:42 AM EST

none

property rights are completely abolished? I'm not talking about taking away your damn tv...

Tipping Sacred Cows

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Re: 'Peak' Food

pO157.

Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:11:46 AM EST

none

You can take my TV, I don't care. :)

But seriously, what happens when we abolish land rights? People who own houses could be forced out, businesses who invested in a location ejected. It wouldn't make sense and would cause complete chaos.

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Re: 'Peak' Food

rEvolution inAction.

Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:19:17 AM EST

none

well since the first part of the plan is to put all the capitalists to the sword.... I'm just joking there, the point I was making was about how the world should work in a fair way (in that the system itself doesn't cause starvation for profit) not how to transition towards a proposed replacement system. If you wanted a more orderly changeover then I guess you could convert deeds into X year leases... but the point isn't to evict people, it's to get those who 'own' land to pay a fair rent to its real owners, the entire population. Actually, more to the point, it's to allow all the people to be fed by a world more than big enough for us all.

Two points I think I should bring up:

  1. How can you really own something that you can't move through any means? Doesn't it more or less own you?

  2. The land renews itself every year, wouldn't it be appropriate to have to purchase the rights to each year rather than own in perpetuity?

Tipping Sacred Cows

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Re: 'Peak' Food

pO157.

Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:10:18 AM EST

none

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Re: 'Peak' Food

rEvolution inAction.

Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:36:58 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

I'm sorry but how in the world does that have anything to do with what I've been saying? I don't remember ever suggesting that land should be seized and then allotted to people unskilled in farming, but if I did, please enlighten me.

That would also be counter-productive as the goal is to feed everyone, land reform is just a means to that end. I envision something more akin to a land tax where the amount paid is based on the size and suitability of the land for agriculture. Therefore an area of land that is some rocky mountain better used for a ski hill would have a negligable 'food' tax to pay when compared to say an office tower built on arable land while farmers would be able to pay the 'food' tax directly rather than having to pay the tax monetarily (it should be cheaper to pay with grain itself than have to purchase it from a farmer or marketing board). Essentially I'm arguing for something akin to carbon trading (as proposed as a method to deal with global warming) where people have to offset their land use by providing others with the produce that their land could produce and would otherwise be feeding the hungry masses.

As I said, I'm opposed to the idea of private ownership of land but mainly because of the social chaos it causes,  my suggestion above would seem to be suitable compensation for allowing private use of something that is an obviously shared resource.

Tipping Sacred Cows

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Re: 'Peak' Food

joshv.

Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 10:57:35 AM EST

4.00 (astute)

I've never really understood the idea of burning food in our cars.  Let's see, burn oil to create pesticides to put on the corn.  Burn oil to create fertilizers to put on the corn.  Burn oil to pump irrigation water.  Burn oil to harvest and transport the corn to an ethanol processing plant.  Burn oil to run the fermentation process.  Burn oil to truck the ethanol to a refinery to be mixed with gasoline, then burn oil to truck the E85 to the gas station.

Fossil fuel inputs into agriculture certainly make sense if you are going to EAT the end result - after all, we can't eat oil.  It's an extremely inefficient way of converting fossil fuel energy into human consumable energy, but a conversion that's economical, at least it has been so far.  But to turn around and burn our food products in engines that are perfectly capable of burning products more directly and efficiently derived from fossil fuels is a profligate waste of energy and a idiotic misdirections of our agricultural resources.

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Re: 'Peak' Food

Shy Elf.

Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 09:47:25 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

It's important to understand where the energy usage really is.  The energy used trucking things around is insignificant.  The energy hog is the ethanol processing plant itself, with the only other huge input coming as natural gas used to make fertilizer.  Add energy used by irrigation pumps, and you have the vast bulk of the energy usage without including pesticides, trucking or farming.

There are really two separate problems which typically confounded in discussions of energy supply and global warming.  The first of these is the production of energy for use in fixed locations without increasing global warming emissions.  The second problem is taking energy available at fixed locations and making it available for use in vehicles.  As has been shown, US ethanol plants have very modest benefits in solving the first problem.  Their potential return in a free market thus hinges on their ability to solve the second problem, by taking energy from coal and turning it into a liquid fuel easily usable for transportation.  Natural gas fueled corn ethanol plants provide little solution to either problem, and lose in a free market to compressed natural gas cars.

With government mandates for refiners to use biofuels regardless of cost-effectiveness, their use will continue to grow regardless of how stupid market forces indicate using them is.  World wholesale ethanol at $1.64/gallon or $2.19/gasoline gallon energy equivalent is still cheaper than conventional gasoline at 2.60/gallon.  This of course can't last.  Ethanol from Brazil has only recently become cheaper than US ethanol after including the tax credit for US made ethanol, and it is only a matter of time before the world prices of ethanol and sugar rise to make these price differentials disappear.  Fortunately what will happen is that US government mandates to use ethanol will simply displace ethanol use that would otherwise occur elsewhere in the world, with little net change in total usage.

We all believe in a free market, right?  We all believe that western nations should serve their citizens first and have no duty to help poor nations, right?  So if the richer nations use a bunch of food so that a fraction of their citizens can drive SUVs instead of regular cars (and that's all the benefit they get out of it), and if tens or hundreds of millions of people in poor countries die of starvation as a result, that's a good thing, right?  It's just the free market at work, right?

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Re: 'Peak' Food

pO157.

Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:07:48 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

What about water? As a planet we are burning through our clean water faster than we should. Temporary disruptions in clean water are worse than shortages of food. You will die without any within days, and dirty water causes horrible illnesses. At least you can go without food for a week or two (some Americans can probably go without for 2.5-3 weeks, heh) giving responders time to get something together.

Personally I wonder if the survivalists have it all wrong. Maybe it won't be a massive earthquake, plague, zombie uprising, EMP, nuclear war, black helicopters or some sudden event but rather a long whimper as society runs out of basic resources like food and water.

It wouldn't even have to be a complete shortage or loss of supply. Just wait until the poor and lower-middle classes in industrialized nations can't get what they need and then the hilarity will ensue.

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Re: 'Peak' Food

Shy Elf.

Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:54:46 PM EST

none

Shortages of water ARE shortages of food.  That's where the water goes.  No water = less food.

There's nothing close to a water shortage, but there is a shortage of water where it's needed, and moving it is expensive and consumes a lot of energy which we don't have either.

I think you've got the fake bottled water price burned into your brain.  Water is dirt cheap and always will be so long as you only need enough to drink.

The point of the article is that we're already there in underdeveloped countries; food prices are already where the lower and middle classes cannot afford them, and that this is new in many of these countries.  This doesn't yet count China which has now grown out of the ranks of the poorest countries.

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Re: 'Peak' Food

postillion.

Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 09:46:46 PM EST

none

Water is dirt cheap and always will be so long as you only need enough to drink.

I would think this depends on how you are defining water.  If one defines water as clean water that is not carrying germs nor chemical toxins, it's a different story in many developing nations where industrial growth is colliding with older water systems as well as governments that have yet to put some leash on manufacturing pollution.  

While China is no longer among the poorest of nations, they are likely to face water problems because of the way they are using their water supply.  In an effort to grow their domestic economy, the Chinese government has allowed manufacturing to dump toxins in the water supply which has resulted in illnesses throughout China.  

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Re: 'Peak' Food

skeeter1.

Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 01:54:11 AM EST

none

I have no real answers, just more questions.  How much of our food (in the US at least) goes to waste?  The 24hr grocery store that I sometimes go to has to be trashing tons of produce, meat, fish, etc. every week.  Whenever I can, I like to use dried veggies and canned goods which never go to waste.  They're fine for making soups and stews.  Same goes for pickled foods.  

Don't get me wrong, I like fresh veggies, and am currently sprouting some seeds right now.  

When I was younger, I knew a farmer (since retired), and every year they'd butcher a hog and a cow and have meat in the freezer for a year.

I've been a hunter for many years, but with the price of firearms, hunting licenses, hunting garb, decoys, knives, and much more, it's far from free food.  Very good (better than you'll ever find in a store, especially the waterfowl and rabbits), but it's an expensive pursuit.  Nevertheless, I hope to get back out in the field again one of these days.

Food prices may be going up, but a lot of that, AFAIC, is self-inflicted.

My two cents worth.

there's only one way to find out...

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Re: 'Peak' Food

postillion.

Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 10:16:51 PM EST

3.00 (interesting)

The 24hr grocery store that I sometimes go to has to be trashing tons of produce, meat, fish, etc. every week.

There are dedicated dumpster divers who live off the supermarket trashbins.

I don't think I can do it, or at least not until prices get so out of hand that it's no longer an option.  However, there could be a certain appeal to dumpster diving at places like Whole Foods.

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Freeganism

thefadd.

Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 02:09:19 PM EST

none

http://freegan.info/

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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Re: 'Peak' Food

pO157.

Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 02:55:06 PM EST

none

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