Etcetera

A whole lotta shaking going on... [Breaking News] [Updated]

pO157.

Posted to Etcetera on Mon May 12, 2008 at 01:51:21 PM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

Today a powerful 7.9 earthquake hit southwestern China, killing thousands.

The 7.9 earthquake felled over 80% of the buildings in affected areas, and caused damage across China.  The earthquake was powerful enough to be felt 1,200km away in Hanoi. Official sources put the death toll at five. Other international news agencies reported over 9,000 killed, with hundreds trapped in buildings. Police and soldiers carrying medical supplies were sent to the hardest hit regions to alleviate suffering.

This is just the latest disaster setback for a country hoping to soon host the Olympics, a challenge already marred by controversy over alleged human rights shenanigans by the ruling government. Although the story is still developing, it is unclear if Time Magazine will suggest an invasion of the worlds most populous country to end the crisis.


Update 5/13: wetkarma adds some more details:

Rescue workers are trying to free over thousands of trapped people with tens of thousands reported dead as the effects of China's 7.9 earthquake disaster begin to filter in. The earthquake whose epicenter was in China's western' region has flattened entire communities in Sichuan Province with up to 80% of buildings reported destroyed in some areas.

The last earthquake of comparable size in China killed 250,000 in 1976.

The worst hit areas remain inaccessible to rescuers, due to the remoteness and difficulty of the mountainous terrain of western Sichuan province. The death toll may continue to rise as officials are counting bodies as they discover them--and have recorded deaths in nearby provinces such as Gansu, Shaanxi and Yunnan, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs.

Watch the earthquake as it happened:

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by pO157, China, disaster, written by wetkarma (all tags)

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8

Damn Dam

pO157.

Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:40:24 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

Troops are working to plug holes in a major dam upriver of the earthquake site. Hopefully they will fix it in time before it bursts. It is also interesting that CNN is quoting government officials as acknowledging problems their people face. IIRC, isn't it relatively uncommon for this to happen in all but the most  blatant of problems (such as the blizzard where the trouble became so bad it could not be ignored anymore)?

9

^ 8

Re: Damn Dam

thefadd.

Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:23:45 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

It would be a step forward if the Chinese government admitted problems as they were happening.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

5

earthquake perspective

wetkarma.

Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:17:56 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

[first: props to p0157 for a great writeup, I must have missed it while writing my own which is now in the subq, only link worth adding is this youtube video of the quake as it happened]

This is a tremendous disaster for China as it represents both a massive loss of life and infrastructure. Given China's population problem, the harsh reality might be that the loss of infrastructure might cause more problems for China than the short term loss of life. With 80%+ of buildings destroyed in some areas, it will be sometime before the Western Region of China's economy recovers.

Undoubtedly the government is bound to execute a few builders/inspectors who took bribes to 'send a message', but I bet there are a lot of BCP/DR departments of multinational companies in Shanghai casting a skeptical eye towards their own buildings durability.  

It will be interesting to see whether China can do a better job dealing with this disaster than the US was able to do after Hurricane Katrina. Also interesting will be how world opinion will see China (worth of empathy/sympathy for the country's loss  or derision for failing to take reasonable precautions in becoming a rising power).

One also wonders how Global Warming will be used as explanation for this disaster.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

6

^ 5

And yet, the Games will continue.

MayorBob.

Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:10:44 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

The Chinese government is very quick to assure all who are scheduled to attend or play in the Olympics in Beijing (bring your own oxygen canister) that all of the venues for the games are structurally sound. Of course, the Chinese flacks were better at getting the word out about the safety of the games than the government has been about digging people out buried under the rubble of what were once buildings. I think Al Gore used his last Global Warming token to pronounce it the cause of the Burmese cyclone and I haven't heard anyone proffer that as a cause. Actually I'm wondering how long it will take Beijing to blame the quake on the Dalai clique.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

10

The good, the bad, the ugly

port1080.

Thu May 15, 2008 at 12:37:31 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Well, this is interesting especially as contrasted to what's happening in Myanmar.  You have to give the Chinese government some credit - they are clearly taking this seriously and they're not necessarily trying to use it to score PR points - they're admitting that there is a problem and they are asking for help (and it appears they're doing everything they can to get aid to the area).  This stands in stark contrast to what has happened in the past - even very recently in the past an event like this would have been covered up as much as possible.  Still, my feeling is that the government probably is doing all of this relatively grudgingly - more because in this day of cell phones and the Internet it's much more difficult, if not impossible, to engage in the sort of mass media blackouts that were used to cover up the level of destruction / poor government responses of the past.  The government simply can't get away with not doing anything, like they used to.  So, we see both the good and the bad of the current Chinese government system here - the good in the sense that there's obviously some increasing accountability to the public (as opposed to a place like Myanmar) and a desire on the part of many portions of the government to do the right thing (again, contrasting China to Myanmar - while corruption certainly exists in China, there's not the same sort of gangster mentality in the government - government officials are expected to do their jobs, even though they often fail to live up to expectations, while in places like Myanmar, the expectation is failure or even active pillaging).  Still, there are certainly many problems exposed by this.  The biggest, of course, is what has long been obvious - China's regulator scheme is hardly up to snuff.  The lack of standardized building codes and the lack of enforcement of what there is almost certainly contributed to many of the problems we see (although, to be fair, many of the houses out in the countryside which collapsed were probably quite old and even if the area had California style construction laws, probably would have been "grandfathered in" and faced problems in any event).  Also, China has shown some recalcitrance in accepting foreign aid (although, again, to be fair the US wasn't entirely willing to accept foreign aid after Katrina - there is some expectation that a developed nation should be able to take care of its own, and China desperately wants to be viewed as a developed nation that doesn't need aid anymore).  

1

You have to wonder...

pO157.

Mon May 12, 2008 at 02:45:05 PM EST

none

How much crap are the people at the bottom of the totem pole over there willing to put up with? If the response to this sucks as bad as the one to their blizzard, yet the government can still shell out for the Olympics, I would imagine there are going to be some very angry ChiComms.

How bad does it have to get before the people start picking up pitchforks and torches? What would a civil war or revolution in a nuclear power like China look like?

2

^ 1

Re: You have to wonder...

thefadd.

Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:00:14 PM EST

none

Even in the war lord period they were an amazingly organized country. There's something about 3000 years of continuous national identity that make me think any upheaval wouldn't be all that Afghanistan-esque absent outside interference.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

3

^ 2

Re: You have to wonder...

port1080.

Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:27:50 PM EST

4.50 (informative)

Even in the war lord period they were an amazingly organized country.

Depends on what you mean by "organized" I guess, considering there was almost constant warfare during that period.  Your takeaway point  has merit, though.  China is actually mostly organized at the local level - despite our view of the monolithic communist state, the localities actually have a lot of power and independence, and can often ignore directives from above (and Beijing has few methods other than to use the army - which is a very blunt tool - when local leaders don't listen) as long as it's not over something critically important.  This situation has been in place for a long time - it developed during the imperial era mainly because Beijing simply couldn't control everything (due to technological limitations) and the local bureaucracy has persisted in one form or another ever since, even in times when the national government was non-existent.  A lot of the reason for the ability of the bureaucracy to maintain has been the importance of social relationships in China - people have obligations to other people which are bound by favors, hierarchy, etc. and which are enforced by custom, rather than law.  Hence a local leader doesn't necessarily need the force of the state to maintain order, as long as he has sufficient guanxi.

4

^ 3

Re: You have to wonder...

zyxwvutsr.

Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:46:05 PM EST

none

...a very blunt tool...
What are these new little blue boxes?

7

perhaps worse than my cynicism suspected

wetkarma.

Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:36:58 AM EST

none

I expected shoddy construction to play a major role in this disaster, but given that the quake occured at 2pm local time, schools have been heavily affected.

On the optimistic side, children's bodies are a lot more supple than adults and I'd guess that the survivor rate (assuming rescue workers can get to them fast enough) should be pretty good.

However again I must point out the infrastructure issue -- even if the kids survive, you lay future traps because the schools no longer exist. This shows up 10-15 years from now when these kids become adults and can't compete as effectively in the global market.

My heart goes out to the many families in China who are no doubt in mourning today. For Asia's strong family culture this earthquake is a huge traumatic disaster for the survivors as well.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

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