217 delegates remain from the 6 states left to vote/caucus. Because of the way the Dems divide up the delegates, you are right to observe that neither Obama or Clinton will garner more than a 60-40 advantage, likely much closer to 55-45 as best case scenario for either camp. Let's call Obama's worst case scenario then 40% of 217. That's 87, leaving him wanting 97 for the nomination (if you use the 184 number I read this morning that's ever so slightly more of a hurdle for Obama than your 180). On 270 superdelegates, Obama would then need just more than one third to commit to him. I think there's no doubt that McGovern's assessment that Obama has now won "by any practical test" is a closed issue in every mind except Hillary's, Bill's and members of the media desperate to cling to last week's story.
That said, Michigan and Florida do come back into play now. They have to, have to, have to be sat at the convention or the Dems can kiss November goodbye. Obama's move to settle that issue now while his lead looks so insurmountable is a smart one and I believe it makes him look magnanimous and Presidential in the process. If he can successfully seal up those states in some kind of mathematical compromise with Clinton, then the nomination is his. I think Clinton will absolutely make it the toughest fight yet as she probably feels like those are her aces in the hole/last chance at the nomination without tearing the party apart at the convention.
It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.
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Re: running the numbers
Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:47:23 AM EST
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I don't really care either way -- but that McGovern quote rubs me the wrong way. If Obama has indeed won, then he'd have 2025 delegates. He doesn't so he hasn't.
Thats the only 'practical test' I see being worthwhile. Whats the point of having primaries in these 'late' voting states if, even when the result is still undecided, people want to call the nomination?
As I've pointed out elsewhere - I'm not a big fan of HRC, nor am I Democrat, but I think its poor form to try and say 'the contest is over' in some sort of weird attempt at self-fulfilling prophesy.
Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.
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Re: running the numbers
Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:06:52 AM EST
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I think there's no doubt that McGovern's assessment that Obama has now won "by any practical test" is a closed issue in every mind except Hillary's, Bill's and members of the media desperate to cling to last week's story.
And, apparently, the 270 uncommitted superdelegates, who had the power yesterday to end this contest -- and still do, today. That they haven't (as of this writing) is the indicator that McGovern assessment should inspire quite a bit of doubt.