Diary

Will There Be A Question

thefadd.

Posted to Diary on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:46:39 PM EST. RSS.

With the votes of 487 delegates still to be pledged, Barack Obama now sits less than 200 delegate endorsements from claiming the Democratic nomination outright.

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A Question?

MayorBob.

Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:48:42 AM EST

none

There will be a full-blown Spanish Inquisition-style torture session (complete with comfy chair and Cardinal Biggles) between now and the time the balloting is done in Denver.  There is no way that Clinton can out do Obama on the first ballot.  The only thing she can hope for is to hopelessly deadlock the first ballot and work prodigiously at getting enough support on subsequent ballots to put her over the top.  Because the pledged delegates are only pledged for the first ballot.  Of course, the Democrats might have had enough of Hillary by the second ballot to nominate Obama.  Or, they might have had enough of both of them to go out looking for an alternative.

Clinton is already giving mixed signals.  She said last night that she would work for whomever the nominee might be.  Her campaign staff let it be known that the tentatively agreed-upon magic number of 2025 delegates to nominate is no longer good enough; now they demand Florida and Michigan be included which bumps up the needed number to 2209.  Howard Dean said last week that the Democratic Party had to figure out a way of seating Florida and Michigan delegates that's fair to the candidates and to the people.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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Re: A Question?

Lou.

Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:03:47 AM EST

none

I'm too lazy to look this up...but as I understand it, Fl and MI got bumped from the family because they jumped the gun on their primary dates?  Didn't Clinton support this idea...or did I dream it?

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

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Re: A Question?

MayorBob.

Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:13:13 AM EST

none

The Democratic National Committee ruled that Michigan and Florida lost their delegates because they chose to defy the DNC on when they could hold their primaries.  I don't believe Hillary took a position on it, one way or the other, at the time.  I have to believe that, back when the delegates lost their status, she likely thought she had enough oomph to win the whole thing without worrying about them.  Unfortunately for her, all these primaries which didn't go her way intervened and, lately her camp has been saying 1). both delegations should be seated, and 2). it should take 2,209 votes to secure the nomination.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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Re: A Question?

thefadd.

Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:38:49 PM EST

none

It looks like Obama is now making some vague move toward resolving the Michigan and Florida question. I think he absolutely has to come off looking Presidential and magnanimous in what he does. He can--has to--score major points in those two states before Denver. The Democrats can't let their treatment of those two states to this point come back and bite them in the ass in November. Also, McGovern has called on Hillary to step aside.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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running the numbers

gerrymander.

Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:45:35 PM EST

none

Despite the early chorus of "the witch is dead," Clinton is still very much in the game. Obama needs 180 delegates to win the nomination; Clinton needs 330. The trick is that to win outright without counting on uncommitted superdelegates, Obama needs to average 66% of the votes in the few outstanding primaries. So far, the only state where he's had that kind of landslide is Illinois. Any less support, and the remaining unpledged superdelegates play a huge role.

Anyone want to bet as to which of Clinton or Obama is better at the "back room politics" kind of nomination? 'Cause I know where my money would be.

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Re: running the numbers

thefadd.

Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:25:27 PM EST

none

217 delegates remain from the 6 states left to vote/caucus. Because of the way the Dems divide up the delegates, you are right to observe that neither Obama or Clinton will garner more than a 60-40 advantage, likely much closer to 55-45 as best case scenario for either camp. Let's call Obama's worst case scenario then 40% of 217. That's 87, leaving him wanting 97 for the nomination (if you use the 184 number I read this morning that's ever so slightly more of a hurdle for Obama than your 180). On 270 superdelegates, Obama would then need just more than one third to commit to him. I think there's no doubt that McGovern's assessment that Obama has now won "by any practical test" is a closed issue in every mind except Hillary's, Bill's and members of the media desperate to cling to last week's story.

That said, Michigan and Florida do come back into play now. They have to, have to, have to be sat at the convention or the Dems can kiss November goodbye. Obama's move to settle that issue now while his lead looks so insurmountable is a smart one and I believe it makes him look magnanimous and Presidential in the process. If he can successfully seal up those states in some kind of mathematical compromise with Clinton, then the nomination is his. I think Clinton will absolutely make it the toughest fight yet as she probably feels like those are her aces in the hole/last chance at the nomination without tearing the party apart at the convention.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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Re: running the numbers

wetkarma.

Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:47:23 AM EST

4.00 (astute)

I don't really care either way -- but that McGovern quote rubs me the wrong way. If Obama has indeed won, then he'd have 2025 delegates. He doesn't so he hasn't.

Thats the only 'practical test' I see being worthwhile. Whats the point of having primaries in these 'late' voting states if, even when the result is still undecided, people want to call the nomination?

As I've pointed out elsewhere - I'm not a big fan of HRC, nor am I Democrat, but I think its poor form to try and say 'the contest is over' in some sort of weird attempt at self-fulfilling prophesy.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

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Re: running the numbers

gerrymander.

Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:06:52 AM EST

none

I think there's no doubt that McGovern's assessment that Obama has now won "by any practical test" is a closed issue in every mind except Hillary's, Bill's and members of the media desperate to cling to last week's story.

And, apparently, the 270 uncommitted superdelegates, who had the power yesterday to end this contest -- and still do, today. That they haven't (as of this writing) is the indicator that McGovern assessment should inspire quite a bit of doubt.

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