Politics

Kerry On, My Wayward Son

gerrymander.

Posted to Politics on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 10:40:57 AM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

Flip-flopper. Elitist. Egotist. Insider politician. These are some of the labels which were branded to John Kerry in his presidential bid in 2004.

Someone needs to remind Barack Obama that the Democrats lost that election, because it increasingly appears that he's begun to follow Kerry's playbook.

Obama's legion of personal support reverses -- Jeremiah Wright, Austin Goolsbe, Jim Johnson -- were grist for the conservative mill, but largely accepted by his base. Since then, however, two recent position reverses appear to strike into Democrat supporters and independents alike. The first is his acceptance of the Bush-supported FISA legislation with immunity clauses for telecom companies. Previously, he had stridently opposed any middle ground which included immunity.

The second is the signed statement to forgo excess private election contributions above the federal matching fund cap for his campaign -- provided John McCain do the same. That pledge apparently became too inconvenient to uphold, as Obama has reneged on his pledge. As a Washington Post report puts it:

"John McCain's campaign and the Republican National Committee are fueled by contributions from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs," Obama said in his message to supporters yesterday. "And we've already seen that he's not going to stop the smears and attacks from his allies running so-called 527 groups, who will spend millions and millions of dollars in unlimited donations."

To date, no conservative 527 groups have materialized. But Obama portrayed his call as a preemptive strike.

As for the "egotist" charge, some may remember the criticism Kerry drew after securing the Democratic nomination in 2004, when he changed his campaign slogan to "John Kerry, President." Obama didn't wait that long; he has decided to place a modified presidential seal front-and-center in his campaign even before receiving the official nod from his own party.

All this from a man who hasn't yet managed to salve the wounds from a bitter primary fight against Hillary Clinton. With McCain polling even or within margin-of-error distance of par, is Obama buying too deeply into his own media myth of inevitability?

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by gerrymander, politics, 2008 presidential election, Obama, Kerry (all tags)

This story: 46 comments (3 from subqueue)
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1

Misprint

Lou.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:38:38 PM EST

5.00 (astute, astute)

Flip-flopper. Elitist. Egotist. Insider politician. These are some of the labels which were branded to John Kerry

You must mean handed to Kerry by the Swiftboat crowd and their ilk.  Kerry's biggest problem was that he didn't hand this crap back with a dash of backhand.

Also this:

To date, no conservative 527 groups have materialized. But Obama portrayed his call as a preemptive strike.

Key point - "to date".  As the election gets closer we'll see the 527s popping out faster then feces from a cow with dysentery.

Finally this:

I always get a chuckle when conservative types get all hand-wringingly concerned about how their despised opponent may be making a mistake.  Brings a tear to my eyes, it does.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

11

^ 1

Re: Misprint

gerrymander.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 02:57:00 PM EST

5.00 (astute, astute)

I always get a chuckle when conservative types get all hand-wringingly concerned about how their despised opponent may be making a mistake.

I always chuckle when the certainly-doomed Republican candidate gets (back) into the White House, thanks to the issues Democrats weren't concerned enough about to address.

Hey, it's worked twice so far.

12

^ 11

Re: Misprint

Lou.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 03:22:51 PM EST

5.00

And I get a guffaw when I see conservatives using the same old character assassination that always seems to work for them.

"Flip flopper" is an old classic...to which this time we'll add "appeaser" and "Muslim".

...oh wait...that's not a guffaw, that's a sob.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

17

^ 1

Re: Misprint

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 05:08:26 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

Key point - "to date".  As the election gets closer we'll see the 527s popping out faster then feces from a cow with dysentery
No, the key point was conservative 527 groups. Moveon.org has already begun running disingenuous, puerile anti-McCain attack ads.

18

^ 17

Oh, it's on.

Lou.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 07:15:50 PM EST

none

Jesus, Z...was that an "attack" ad?  However, I'm not surprised at the sting conservatives must feel.  I mean honestly, the way liberals light a candle in response to the conservative flame-throwers, it's shameful.  I feel your pain.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

28

^ 18

Re: Oh, it's on.

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 10:19:46 AM EST

none

...was that an "attack" ad?
That's a matter of opinion, of course. Tell me, Lou, what are your criteria for an "attack ad"?
I feel your pain
What makes you think I care about it one way or the other? I find partisanship amusing, at best.

43

No Conservative 527s?

logan.

Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 02:01:33 PM EST

5.00 (informative, interesting)

To date, no conservative 527 groups have materialized.

Oh yeah? How about this one: Vietnam Veterans Against John McCain. From their "About Us" page:

Vietnam Veterans Against John McCain is a 527 PAC organized by Jerry Kiley. The organization has an internet following of volunteers from all over the nation.

Vietnam Veterans Against John McCain was formed to dispel the myth of "Straight talkin', principled, maverick war hero" John McCain.

Vietnam Veterans Against John McCain was also responsible for this classy piece of campaign literature.

So they're attacking McCain. They must be liberals being secretly controlled by Obama, right? Wrong. The site is run by Ted Sampley and Jerry Kiley, founders of Vietnam Veterans Against John Kerry. What we've got here is the far-right using the same tactics they used against John Kerry in 2004. The difference is that they're attacking John McCain because he's not crazy enough for their taste. Put your tinfoil hat while you try to figure out what they're trying to accomplish, but three things are for sure: they're conservative, they're a registered 527, and they really hate John McCain.

-=Logan
Research, facts, a Republican needs not these things

44

More Conservative 527s

logan.

Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 02:53:17 PM EST

5.00 (brilliant, informative, brilliant)

I'll tell you, this Google thing is just amazing. You search for "Conservative 527" and in 0.13 seconds you get a whole list.

Vets For Freedom registered as a 527 and promptly produced two anti-Obama attack ads. The ads themselves make some bizarre claims: that the civil war in Iraq is over and that "The Iraqi government has come together to make political progress."

Another 527, Freedom's Watch, lays it all out in their mission statement:

For too long, conservatives have lacked a permanent political presence to do battle with the radical special interest groups and their left-wing allies in government.  

Let's just take a moment to ponder that. Conservatives have no permanent political presence. No GOP, no Moral Majority, no Club for Growth, no American Enterprise Institute, no Project for the New American Century. Liberals hold every political office from Texas to Alaska. It's a wonderful world with universal free health care, free education, the income tax rate hasn't changed since the fifites and Condoleezza Rice is happily married to Angela Davis.

Where was I? Oh yeah, Freedom's Watch, founded by former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer and Bush's Deputy Assistant to the President for Appointments and Scheduling*, Bradley A. Blakeman. A quick look at their Media Center shows an anti-Obama piece published just yesterday: Barack Obama: First Impressions v. Lasting Images. I'm sure there's more but they only display the most recent press releases. Draw your own conclusion on that one, but I've noticed that most of the sites I visited in researching this little rant of mine have no search features.

The list goes on. There are lots of conservative 527s at work, they just haven't gotten the press that Swift Boats got...yet.

* There's a title to be proud of. I wonder if it's abbreviated to DAPASS?

-=Logan
Research, facts, a Republican needs not these things

34

Re: Kerry On, My Wayward Son

JimmyHavok.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 03:28:56 PM EST

4.66 (funny, funny)

I'll be sure to pass your heartfelt advice on to Obama.  I'm sure he'll take it with all the sincerity with which it is given.

2

FISA is the big one...

port1080.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:47:23 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

The campaign finance issue and the presidential seal issue aren't all that major.  Obama has already claimed that the seal was a mistake and vowed not to use it again, so I expect that controversy won't have much in the way of legs.  The campaign finance issue may be slightly more damaging, but ultimately I don't think it will have all that much impact because there is a wide-spread perception out there that the entire campaign finance system is fundamentally fucked up.  Since the majority of Obama's monetary support is coming from small, individual donations I just don't think this hurts him that much.  If he had pulled out of the campaign finance system to fund his campaign with his own money or to take some huge donations from just a few corporate donors then I think it would be damaging, but as is I don't think it will hurt that much.

The FISA vote, though - that could hurt.  That could be Obama's version of "I was for the war, then against it" (although it's arguably even harder to explain - I myself am not exactly sure how Obama can claim any moral consistency on this issue.  At least Kerry could claim that Bush "fooled him" somehow).  I don't think that the FISA issue will necessarily change anyone's vote, but what it could do is weaken Obama's support among his base, push some people to vote for Barr or Nader, or just plain stay home.  Whether those lost votes are offset by the benefits Obama gains from taking FISA off the table as an issue for McCain to bludgeon him with, I'm not sure.  I think in the end Obama might make out okay, since the people he's most likely to be pissing off here really have no other credible place to turn.

8

^ 2

Re: FISA is the big one...

Jackkeefe.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 02:33:29 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

Since the majority of Obama's monetary support is coming from small, individual donations I just don't think this hurts him that much.  If he had pulled out of the campaign finance system to fund his campaign with his own money or to take some huge donations from just a few corporate donors

Campaign Finance rules still apply if you reject public funding, it is still illegal for a candidate to accept "huge donations from just a few corporate donors."

Plus, Obama's fundraising plan isn't based on just small donations from Joe Sixpack. To quote Ruth Marcus in todaysWashington Post:

"Ordinary people, that is, if your definition of ordinary people includes bundlers who can collect six- and even seven-figure sums for your campaign. Because even as he was rhapsodizing in public about "the grass-roots values that have already changed our politics and brought us this far," Obama was privately cozying up to Hillary Clinton's major fundraisers.

Earlier this month, he dispatched his campaign manager, David Plouffe, to woo Clinton bundlers in Washington and New York. This week, Clinton will introduce Obama to nearly 200 of her major bundlers, including some who have raised $1 million or more, in a meeting at the Mayflower Hotel.

"This group could represent 50 million, if not 100 million, bucks," said one top Clinton strategist."

9

^ 8

Re: FISA is the big one...

port1080.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 02:35:11 PM EST

none

Campaign Finance rules still apply if you reject public funding, it is still illegal for a candidate to accept "huge donations from just a few corporate donors."

I know that - I offered that as a hypothetical.  I thought it was so obvious that I didn't need to say anything, but apparently not.

10

^ 9

Re: FISA is the big one...

Jackkeefe.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 02:53:09 PM EST

none

So your point was that its better for Obama to reject public financing than to commit felonies?

I'm curious how that's not  so obvious that it doesn't need saying.
 

13

^ 10

Re: FISA is the big one...

port1080.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 03:36:13 PM EST

none

No, my point was that pulling out of the public financing system was such a no-brainer that the only way it would have been a bad idea would be if he was pulling out of it because he planned on financing his campaign in a way that completely contradicted his previous rhetoric (i.e. he explicitly started taking huge amounts of money from the "corporate interests" he keeps harping about).  Since the current finance laws make that illegal anyway (as you've pointed out, and as I should have pointed out), pulling out becomes even MORE of a no-brainer.  I think the only legal way for him to pull out that would have been damaging would have been if he pulled out to self-finance (but that's not realistic either - unless he taps Bloomberg for VP I guess).  That does bring up an interesting question though - if a (relatively) poor president taps a rich guy for VP, can he use the VP's money to campaign with?  As far as I'm aware it hasn't been an issue yet, but if Bloomberg was tapped as VP (by either party) it could quickly become one...

3

^ 2

Re: FISA is the big one...

thefadd.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:10:55 PM EST

none

I don't see the flipping in Obama's FISA stance. He never voted against this bill and has always said he would stand strong against terrorism. Now he's saying he will watch its development closely. Where exactly is the floppery?

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

4

^ 3

Re: FISA is the big one...

port1080.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:22:06 PM EST

5.00 (astute, astute)

He may have never voted against this exact bill, but he has claimed to oppose telecom immunity in the past and he has certainly claimed to be an "agent of change" and whatnot.  By voting for a bill that was passed in such a transparently political manner based on transparently political motivations, rather than taking a stand and opposing the bill on principle, he loses a lot of that credibility.

5

^ 4

Re: FISA is the big one...

thefadd.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:35:05 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Or picked up credibility from people who want America defended from terrorists.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

6

^ 5

Re: FISA is the big one...

port1080.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 01:47:47 PM EST

5.00 (brilliant)

Or picked up credibility from people who want America defended from terrorists.

Uhhh, no.  He may have picked up credibility from people who think that this FISA bill is the only way to protect America from terrorists, but my feeling is that most of those people would be voting for McCain in any case...

7

^ 6

Re: FISA is the big one...

thefadd.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 02:18:57 PM EST

none

Given that Obama leads 49%-37% yet 52% say McCain would do a better job on terrorism, I don't think the numbers really support your theory.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

16

^ 7

Re: FISA is the big one...

gerrymander.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 04:42:00 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

Gallup has them running even, with 45% support each.

29

^ 16

Re: FISA is the big one...

thefadd.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 01:31:53 PM EST

none

Zogby has it closer as well (5 points) with 12% "Other" but most have it larger, though without a significant "clinching" bump.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

19

^ 7

Rude Pundit speaks for me, again.

permazorch.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 10:25:18 PM EST

none

The FISA Mistake.
Of course, the real disappointment here is Barack Obama and his collapse on all but telecom immunity. It's a bullshit political position, a convenient way of deflecting any snarling McCain attacks, the rhetorical equivalent of driving around in a tank. What Obama is supposed to do in this instance is say, "I'm a tougher motherfucker for standing for the Constitution than for allowing terrorists to dictate how many rights we have."

----- The earth may burn, but we will quiver

22

^ 19

Re: Rude Pundit speaks for me, again.

port1080.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 08:00:43 AM EST

none

Right on - that's exactly how I feel as well.  The position he took was politically expedient, sure, but from a standpoint of principle it was just poor.  I was watching one of the talking head shows on MSNBC last night (Olbermann, I think?) and he had some Democratic strategist on who basically said straight up that this was a political move and people "need to understand that Obama is and always has been a politician".  Sure, okay, that's fine - but he spent the whole primary campaign claiming he wasn't your average politician (and, indeed, used this to distinguish himself from Clinton).  As others have said - if Obama is just going to be a politics as usual guy, then why again should any of us have supported him over Clinton?

33

^ 22

Re: Rude Pundit speaks for me, again.

permazorch.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 02:16:56 PM EST

none

Yes, it was the biggest mistake he's made since he decided to run for prez.

Ugh, what an error, and I'm looking at it with the view that one should stick their guns to gain respect. He can't really backpedal, without being a total jerk.

You'd think the man could wait until after the election to break my heart into 25 grillion pieces.

----- The earth may burn, but we will quiver

42

^ 33

Hold the line

teaweed.

Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 10:24:56 AM EST

5.00

I lean Democrat. When it was down to McCain, Obama and Clinton, I decided it was McCain or Obama for me. I've considered Clinton a politically expedient hack ever since she went from 1st lady of Arkansas to senator from NY.I disagree with McCain on just about everything, but I respect(ed) his character. When the democrats didn't have the majority to win a fight, they didn't even try, but McCain was a lone voice in the wilderness, voting against torture. There was the bright and shiny campaign finance reform stuff. I figured he was basically a stand-up guy, even if he was wrong about almost everything. This presidential campaign has ruined him. It's as if he sold his soul. I'm more disappointed in him as a human being than as a politician.

Obama has to be a lackluster father to be running with kids that young, but he could still be a good president, right? The telecom immunity thing makes me glad I haven't sent him $. Just another fucking politician!

14

^ 2

Re: FISA is the big one...

pO157.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 04:12:09 PM EST

none

I think in the end Obama might make out okay, since the people he's most likely to be pissing off here really have no other credible place to turn.

Unless they don't care about casting a ballot for somebody "electable" but do so to make a statement that they feel their old party of choice has lost its way. That's why they call it the protest vote.

23

^ 14

Re: FISA is the big one...

port1080.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 08:07:30 AM EST

none

Unless they don't care about casting a ballot for somebody "electable" but do so to make a statement that they feel their old party of choice has lost its way. That's why they call it the protest vote.

I'm not a big fan of protest votes (unless they're done strategically in a "solid blue" or "solid red" state - which, I suppose, is the case for you in any case) because, at the end of the day, one of the two major parties is going to win.  I realize that this is something of a self-fulfilling prophecy, but the system is completely stacked in favor of a two party system and barring constitutional amendments that's not going to change anytime soon, so I figure I just have to accept it.  Having accepted it, one can recognize that even if you don't like either party, one party is still generally going to be closer to your positions than the other, and given that, it just makes sense to vote for that party.

For a real world example, all we have to do is look at the 2000 election.  We had a lot of the same rhetoric in 2000 that you're saying now:  "There's no difference between the two parties", "We need radical change" "Bush is pretty liberal for a conservative so it won't be all that bad if he wins", etc, etc.  Do you really think that we would be in the situation we're at now if Gore had won that election?  All it would have taken is a few thousand of those "protest votes" for Nader in Florida to go Gore's way.  

24

^ 23

Re: FISA is the big one...

pO157.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 08:42:40 AM EST

none

I agree in part, especially your point about Gore. However, by continually voting for the lesser of two evils you help maintain the status quo more than voting Green or Libertarian right now. If the Dems cannot field a decent candidate for the White House or Congress then why bother to support him/her? If they cannot function as an opposition party, then why bother to support them with money and votes? Eventually they will crumble when they lose seats, offices and influence nationwide.

In the end it becomes a case of "worse before it gets better" and would likely lead to several years of one party rule, but we know what happens when one party controls everything. People will eventually become disgusted and look for other options. Another party would rise up and take their place, or the old party platform would change, or the old guard leadership would get booted out, or the system would recognize other third parties or something else.

It will take years and several election cycles for this to happen, but eventually it will. From what I have read key groups of voters are registering as independents, or leaving the major parties. With enough people looking for new options some party or concept will be there to provide one.

35

^ 24

second parties have to do the work

JimmyHavok.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 04:53:48 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

I don't see the alternative parties doing the work necessary to take over a chunk of the vote.  The Greens need to run local candidates and build a 50-state organization before they run a Presidential candidate, for example.

My local Green party is run by a bunch of holier-than-thou snot-noses who give the cold shoulder to any new faces that show up at party meetings.  It's in distinct contrast to the local Democrats, who, while they have their cliques and insider groups, still welcome new faces that want to  participate.  Even the local Commies are more welcoming and publicly active than the Greens here.

38

^ 35

Re: second parties have to do the work

pO157.

Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 08:15:53 AM EST

none

I don't see the alternative parties doing the work necessary to take over a chunk of the vote.  The Greens need to run local candidates and build a 50-state organization before they run a Presidential candidate, for example.

Yeah. I hear a lot about Barr running, but where are the people running for Congress? Run a Lib in half the congressional races, especially ones with horribly unpopular incumbents. I bet they would pick up a few seats with the right campaigns.

I am not saying Barr should end his bid. It is important to help get name recognition out there. But until the party can demonstrate its viability by getting some statewide or national candidates elected it will still have that big hurdle ahead of it.

40

^ 38

Re: second parties have to do the work

JimmyHavok.

Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 01:33:30 PM EST

5.00 (informative)

The second parties have to run people in local (state and city) elections if they want to have any street cred.  Starting at the federal level is narcissism, not politics.

The Greens in Europe started at the grass-roots, that's how they became a credible party.  Of course, parliamentary systems have more room for small parties, so the row they had to hoe wasn't quite so tough.

45

^ 40

It's a vicious cycle.

pO157.

Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 08:00:31 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

But to get there they have to run high visibility nationwide campaigns to get the name out. They can't get the local support until they have a high profile nationwide ticket, but they can't get the large numbers nationwide until they start getting credible local support.

46

^ 45

It's not a vicious cycle

JimmyHavok.

Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 02:23:45 PM EST

none

You get your street cred by getting people into municipal seats, who can then run for state seats, because they have credibility from having served in government, who can then run for national office because they have credibility from having served in state government.  It's hard work, but it has to be done, and it can only happen from the grass roots.

Running a loser for President gives your local candidates negative credibility, because they are stained with his quixotism.

If you don't want to be a functional political party, you can complain that the deck is stacked against you and that it's a vicious circle.  That's where the Greens I know stand.  The island of Hawaii had a Green Party that was actually trying to do it, but they seem to have lost steam.

39

^ 38

Re: second parties have to do the work

Shy Elf.

Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 12:49:46 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

Winner take all elections mean the deck is stacked to have only two parties.  On the other hand, gerrymandering  means that in many congressional districts there's only one party, so that this is not a real bar to a 3rd party candidate winning.

25

^ 24

Re: FISA is the big one...

port1080.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 09:06:57 AM EST

none

It will take years and several election cycles for this to happen, but eventually it will. From what I have read key groups of voters are registering as independents, or leaving the major parties. With enough people looking for new options some party or concept will be there to provide one.

I think you're far too optimistic about this.  There have only been two times in history when a national party collapsed, and the last time it happened was almost two hundred years ago.  The Republican / Democrat pairing has been remarkably robust, even in the face of some absolute disasters.  The Democratic party managed to survive the Civil War and its absolute exile from politics during the Reconstruction era.  The Republican party managed to survive the Great Depression and FDR's 13 year domination of the presidency.  Third party movements much stronger than today's Greens and Libertarians have rose to national prominence and then faded away (the Progressives at the end of the 19th century, the Socialist party in the 1910s and 20s, the Dixiecrats, etc).  The US has very strong structural factors which encourage a two party system, and the two parties both have such extensive networks and party organizations that they absolutely dwarf the alternatives.  Combine that with their willingness to shift their positions to match their dominant constituencies, and I simply don't see them going away anytime soon.  Historically parties have collapsed when a regional question has split party opinion right down the middle (in the case of the Federalists, it had to do with political rules that kept New England businessmen in a predominant political position, while in the case of the Whigs, the question was slavery).  I just don't see any issue on the table that is likely to split either party in such a way.  The most likely candidate for such a split might be the Republicans (a split between the very religious southern base of the party and the business section of the party),  but it doesn't seem all that likely - those divisions are nowhere near as deep as the slavery issue or the divisions that doomed the Federalists.  The Democrats don't have any divisions even close to that.

26

^ 25

Re: FISA is the big one...

pO157.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 09:08:15 AM EST

none

I think you're far too optimistic about this.

You know I'm horribly cynical on almost everything else. Give me something to have hope in.

27

^ 26

Hope

Lou.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 09:24:17 AM EST

5.00 (funny, funny)

The sun will come out tomorrow...bet your bottom dollar on tomorrow...

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

32

^ 27

Re: Hope

Shy Elf.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 02:10:01 PM EST

none

We'd like to thank you, Herbert Hoover.
You made us what we are today.

15

Whistling Past The Graveyard?

uncarved block.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 04:39:33 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

     Well, it's been clear for months now where gerrymander stands on the upcoming election, so a "helpful" reminder such as this is to be expected. He could even be right, though several of his posts here leave room for hesitation. (Not that I'd do much better-- I've just stopped with the prediction business for a while.) All I'll say is that a Dem needs to carry all the states Kerry did, and one big one more to win the election. Me, I don't like the odds of picking a race that close.
    What really sank Kerry though? Was it the little things? Or was it rather the lack of a "big picture" message that would allow voters to excuse petty foibles. W was hardly that much better a candidate, but what he did have was some room for slippage whenever the campaign ran into a pothole or two. Voters appear willing to forgive a foible or three if you give them enough reason to turn a blind eye-- and Kerry never really did that.
    Obama is a whole 'nother story, though. Sure, all that talk about "hope" and "change" may sound pretty dumb to jaded ears, but OTOH smart rarely wins elections, especially at the national level. If they're sweating over that the RNC, I'd suggest they have good reason: since the end of WWII, the single best campaign setup for Democrats has been when inexperienced optimism has run against someone playing the experience card-- Kennedy in 1960, Carter in 1976, and Clinton in 1992.* The graybeards at the RNC have seen this movie before, and they're hoping times have changed enough that the outcome will be different . . .  but until November comes and goes, I can't blame them for sweating a bit.
    We now return to your regularly scheduled partisan discussion :)

     *Carrying the point further, several of the worst defeats have come when Dem candidates tried to run on experience: Carter in 1980, Mondale in 1984, Gore in 2000, and Kerry in 2004 all fit this bill, with the exception (perhaps that proves the rule) being LBJ in 1964.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

21

^ 15

Core beliefs and Obama

wetkarma.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 05:59:02 AM EST

none

Back in 2007 when Obama was talking up the merits of public campaign financing and pledging to work with the republican nominee to support the public system, he claimed to be making an argument out of principle which only coincidentally made HRC look bad (as she refused to do so). According to 2007 Obama, it was a question of character, and how campaigns should be run and a whole other 'I'm different' memes.

Now that he is the Democratic nominee these lofty ideas have been ditched by the wayside.

Which makes me ask -- whats the difference if any between HRC and Obama where HRC was tagged as having no firm beliefs, but merely adopted those that were politically convenient? Has Obama taken ANY position in opposition to his Democratic base or that was likely to put him in conflict with an activist voting block?

McCain offhand has pissed off those on the right who care about immigration, those on the left who want us out of the Iraq war, and annoyed those who care about ideas which make economic sense.

This perhaps makes Obama the better politician, but it does tell me that McCain is far more likely to be a person who stands on principle than opportunism.

I'll go on the record right now and say that while I think both Obama and McCain are the best that their respective parties had to offer [Ron Paul really fits far better with Libertarians], I'd much prefer between the two to see McCain in office.*

*I vote Libertarian which means  I'm voting for Bob Barr. If my vote mattered (i.e. I was in a swing state, I'd vote McCain).

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

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Re: Core beliefs and Obama

Ozyman.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 02:03:00 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

McCain offhand has pissed off those on the right who care about immigration, those on the left who want us out of the Iraq war, and annoyed those who care about ideas which make economic sense.

And then quickly spun that immigration position back to the right:

"I understand why you would call it a, quote, shift," McCain told reporters Saturday after voters questioned him on his position during back-to-back appearances in this early voting state. "I say it is a lesson learned about what the American people's priorities are. And their priority is to secure the borders."

So considering that McCain shifted his immigration position back in line with conservatives, that basically leaves him pissing off the left, and people who are for economic sense.  Not much of a maverick really.

as far as:

Has Obama taken ANY position in opposition to his Democratic base

How about his most recent stand that the death penalty should be applicable to cases of child rape.  Not exactly an unpopular position, but the democratic base is pretty solidly anti-death penalty (I think).

36

Re: Kerry On, My Wayward Son

Shy Elf.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 06:19:46 PM EST

3.33 (interesting, funny)

Kerry and Obama are flip-floppers, and McCain isn't?

Oh, that's rich, seeing as McCain pulled quite a Brock when he couldn't make up his mind whether he was a conservative Republican or a Democrat.

Despite the successful Republican attacks on the subject, Kerry wasn't much of a flip-flopper in the first place.  Instead he had qualified positions compounded by verbal diarrhea to the point that, after listening to him explain his position for an hour, there was still nobody who could figure out what the fuck his position actually was.  He pointed this out himself, of course, but since nobody could understand what the hell he was trying to say, it didn't help him much.

And why the obsession with policy flip-flops in the first place?  Isn't the occasional policy flip a good thing?  When confronted by indisputable evidence that your policy is wrong, isn't it better to decide your policy is wrong than to decide that reality is wrong, like our current President habitually does?

Calling a Presidential candidate an egotist is like calling a Kennedy a lush.  The response is practically guaranteed to be, "Yeah, he is.  Did you have a point?"  

Call him an elitist, and all he has to do is point at the President and say, "Not elitist."

Very few people have even heard of Austin Goolsbe or Jim Johnson, and they weren't guilty of anything different from everyone else in Washington.  And now that he's denounced Wright, the story doesn't have that much in the way of legs.  What damage it can do is already done, and it's already drifted out of our attention span.

The FISA thing is pandering, but nobody cares.  Do you know why you think people care, Gerrymander?  It's because you're a political wonk, and you're mad that Obama's cheating by breaking the political rules.  I'm a political wonk too.  This is a site for political wonks.  Everyone else here is a political wonk too, with the exception of Skeeter1, who for some reason thinks this is a site for food wonks.

And the FISA thing doesn't have legs.  Joe Sixpack American doesn't give a fuck for the political rules.  If you put the FISA pander in a political ad, he's only going to think, "Wow, I didn't know that that Muslim Nigger was now against that Goddamned Civil Rights Bullshit like that great man Joe Arpaio.  Maybe it wouldn't be so bad if he wins after all."

What both candidates don't seem to understand, particularly McCain, who has drifted steadily to the right after clinching the Republican nomination, is that people don't want to see a Presidential candidate who represents their party.  Obama largely won the nomination with a promise not to represent the Democratic party, and that was in the primary where the voters are all Democrats or Democratic leaners or Rush Limbaugh listeners.  If I had one question to ask the candidates, I'd ask, "Name six idiotic positions of your party, and explain what is so stupid about them."

Obama doesn't have a huge lead.  He has a slight lead, because young people vote at best 2/3 as often as older people, and because people in swing states don't particularly like Obama.  People out west like libertarian outsiders like Obama, but don't like Democrats, but WV, OH, MI, and WI and PA are blue-collar nanny-state states.

When the Republican is leading in the Alaska Senate race by 2 points, and is polling under 50% in the Kansas Senate race, you know the Republicans are going to get wiped out in the elections.  Still, all is not lost for McCain.  All he needs to do are two things.

First, he needs to declare victory in Iraq and leave.  The statement would be something like, "Now that the surge which I advocated has succeeded in restoring calm to Iraq, we can afford to immediately reduce our force level there by 75%, though we will retain a small force there for the foreseeable future."  See?  It blunts the issue for the Democrats without compromising his earlier statements.  There's nothing left to attack.

The second thing he needs to do is to grab onto the energy issue like a police dog with lockjaw, and not let go.  Americans can only think about one thing at a time, anyhow.

Hey, John: All you have to do is your campaign slogan to, "John McCain: American Energy for God-Blessed American Americans, because America is still #1," and print it on bumper stickers with a background of a flag with, if you look closely, stars which are actually gushing oil wells, and you can't lose, because the Obama/Democratic Party position on energy is indefensible.

Oh, and if you're going to sell Anheuser-Bush to Belgium, but still want to get the vote of Joe Sixpack American, you might want to revise your stance on vetoing new beers.

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^ 36

Re: Kerry On, My Wayward Son

thefadd.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 08:28:56 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

And why the obsession with policy flip-flops in the first place?

Leftist generally care less about flip floppers since they take more nuanced/wishy washy examinations of issues in the first place.

Still, all is not lost for McCain. All he needs to do are two things. First, he needs to declare victory in Iraq and leave.

McCain can't declare victory in Iraq because, like Bush, the only way for him to maintain a modicum of popularity is to be at war. Reagan was lucky enough that he got a "cold" war to spend money on

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

41

^ 36

I'm a political wonk, too?!

permazorch.

Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 02:32:42 PM EST

none

I thought I was just a pop-kultur wonk.
Well.
Huh.
Right now I (Leftist McLefty) am thoroughly pissed and disappointed with Obama over the FISA misstep. It was a gimme, an opportunity to rock the house with a nuanced speech on American ideals and freedom, like he did on race, in Philly.
Pity.

----- The earth may burn, but we will quiver

20

Re: Kerry On, My Wayward Son

delete me.

Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 11:52:27 PM EST

none

Seeing as Obama is being called a flip-flopper, has he ever threatened to vote against his own bill?

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

30

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Re: Kerry On, My Wayward Son

thefadd.

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 01:45:28 PM EST

4.00 (astute)

Nobody runs faster than McCain to the winds of the day on issues like immigration, torture, length of the Iraq War, oil drilling, social security, estate tax...he even demanded research into the Katrina disaster and then voted against it.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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