Diary

Sometimes The Coronation Comes From Off Places

thefadd.

Posted to Diary on Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 01:20:47 PM EST. RSS.

Bill Gross of the PIMCO asset management group has written an open letter to "President Obama."

In the letter, he outlines the strategies he feels Obama will need to undertake in order to combat the lethargy of a recovering "Ponzi-style prosperity" that proliferated under George W. Bush. Gross goes on to say that Obama must use half a trillion of government funds to quickly jump start the economy and hold off an American version of the 20-year malaise that has plagued Japan.

It's an interesting tactic. Is Gross shooting the shit to grab some headlines for his flagging industry or is he just being perfectly honest about what the future holds?

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2

Ego

T Slothrop.

Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 02:49:34 PM EST

5.00 (astute, interesting)

One point Gross made really struck me: Why would anyone want to be president in 2009?

Whoever wins is going to be villified and almost guaranteed to be a one-termer: The housing market still has yet to find a bottom, and oil, though most everyone agrees it will come down some as the Fed raises rates and the dollar stops sliding, will NEVER go back to $50/bbl. Hell it may never come under $100/bbl again. This isn't some "two-quarters-and out" recession; this is the start of a multi-year fiasco.

We aren't going to be voting for a President in November, we are going to be voting for Captain of the Titanic.

{Insert amusing quotation here}

5

^ 2

Re: Ego

gerrymander.

Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 12:02:05 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

You say fiasco, I say opportunity.

Neither of the two problems currently hitting the US economy are unsolvable. The housing market is midway through its crisis already. It might not yet have hit bottom (I doubt it has, but we'll need a few more months of data to be sure), but we're seeing some indication that it is being resolved in the collapse of sellers' price resistance. You can't find the bottom until people start looking for it. I expect the May, 2009 housing outlook will be substantially different from now.

Oil is a bigger issue, but even there we're seeing some movement. Opinions about offshore drilling and nuclear power are sliding to the "favorable" end, and both would be welcome changes. The latter would enable more power at better prices and better efficiency (read: less pollution), and would shift US energy expenditures from the Middle East to Australia; that's a win for everyone who isn't a Saudi sheik or Hugo Chavez. The former guarantees increased oil supply, jobs and taxes while the other, larger correction happens.

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Re: Ego

T Slothrop.

Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 12:47:09 PM EST

none

Even after reading your comment, I still say "fiasco". :-)

Opinions about offshore drilling and nuclear power are sliding to the "favorable" end, and both would be welcome changes.

I've read those same articles, and I too welcome the shift in attitudes as positive. But damn man, do you understand the time scale involved? Even if the NRC waived all the environmental impact statement nonsense and issued permits for a  shitload of new reactors today, it would be three to five years at a minimum before a single watt of additional electricity was generated. The time lag on new offshore drilling platforms would be comparable.

Neither will help the next president one bit. Maybe the one we elect in 2012, but not McCain or Obama.

{Insert amusing quotation here}

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Re: Ego

gerrymander.

Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 01:59:55 PM EST

none

But damn man, do you understand the time scale involved?

Oh, yeah, totally. We're talking about a 20-year scope here, start to finish. Despite that, I think the next president (whoever that is) has the potential to steer the national mood from "we're doomed" to "we can fix this". Every journey, single step -- you know the drill.

Whether that potential will get used properly is anybody's guess.

7

^ 5

Re: Ego

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 01:56:38 PM EST

none

Oil is a bigger issue, but even there we're seeing some movement
Some of the movement is the Democrats trying to raise taxes on oil even as they claim to be concerned about the high cost of gasoline.

3

Grossly wrong

Steve Urkel.

Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 03:44:08 PM EST

5.00 (astute, interesting)

We are running the risk of stagflation, doing what he wants would ensure the stagflation happenned. "Stimulative U.S. monetary and fiscal policies," particularly the latter, are the problem, not the solution.

I'm not sure if he really believes in discredited Keynesianist policies and more inflation, or if he's advocating them based on what his investment positions are.

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Re: Grossly wrong

T Slothrop.

Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 08:10:28 PM EST

none

I'm not sure if he really believes in discredited Keynesianist policies and more inflation, or if he's advocating them based on what his investment positions are.

I know this sounds painfully cynical, but I suspect the latter. I don't think there are any true Keynesians any more except maybe in the EU. Surely a man in his position knows that you can't spend your way out of a hole like we are falling into. If the 1970s taught us anything it should have been that.

{Insert amusing quotation here}

1

Re: Sometimes The Coronation Comes From Off Places

thefadd.

Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 01:23:38 PM EST

none

India press also openly assuming an Obama term in office due to the "miserable failure" of supply-side policies under Republican rule.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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