Etcetera

The Bear Is On The Rise In Georgia

MayorBob.

Posted to Etcetera on Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 06:53:54 AM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

Things have gone way beyond border incursions along the Russian-Georgian border. Ever since last week, open hostilities have been ongoing with both sides claiming the role of innocent victim of the other. By all accounts, Russian forces are getting the best of Georgian forces with the fate of the former Soviet Socialist Republic hanging in the balance. As a matter of fact, things are going so great for the Russians that President Dmitry Medvedev said combat operations might soon "be complete."

For a long look at the background of the war we go to a New York Times retrospective. For a shorter version, you can refer to this 17 year timeline of what's led up to the current conflict. Bottomline, two areas of Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) have actively resisted being part of the country. Georgia took the first steps to "liberate" South Ossetia from Russian hands this past week, Russia kicked back and kicked back hard, leaving the Georgians to wonder "where are our friends?"

Those "friends" would be the United States. President George Bush earlier this year had been keen on the idea of having Georgia and the Ukraine join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a proposal Russia had been unkeen about. While not calling for emergency membership in NATO for the embattled country, the Bush administration sides with Georgian President Mikhail Sakashvili, saying that the Russian response was "disproportionate" or that "it cannot go unanswered." Sakashvili frames the conflict as a naked attempt by the Russians to "crush Georgian democracy."

Thus, the face of Eurasia might be in the process of being forcibly changed. Who knows how long the Georgian government of Sakashvili will endure? Who knows how long the nation of Georgia will endure? The force and dispatch with which the Russians have acted here raises the question of whether the world is a safer place with nations like the Ukraine and Georgia left out of NATO. If Georgia had been a member of NATO, would the Russian incursion automatically triggered a military response from the other NATO members? What would have been the response of the two men running for president of the US? It seems that Senator Obama, while deploring the Russian invasion, urges that a bit of caution might go a long way to resolving the situation. By contrast, Senator John McCain suggested we should declare our solidarity with the Georgians and drag NATO along with us.

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by MayorBob, Georgia, Russia, South Ossetia, war, NATO, democracy (all tags)

This story: 43 comments (3 from subqueue)
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30

Is anyone else starting to get a little nervous?

T Slothrop.

Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 02:45:09 PM EST

4.50 (interesting, astute)

This sounds like a lot more than just saber-rattling. Has Putin lost his mind?

{Insert amusing quotation here}

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Re: Is anyone else starting to get nerves

port1080.

Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 03:02:07 PM EST

5.00 (astute, astute)

Russian generals have a fairly long history of making off-the-cuff threatening remarks that don't actually reflect Russian policy (going back to Soviet times, even).  So, I don't think we should read too much into that comment, since it didn't come directly from Putin or the Russian gov't.  On the other hand, maybe we should be worried about just how much control Pooty-poot has over the Russian military.  That, I think, is the bigger question right now.

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Re: Is anyone else starting to get nerves

T Slothrop.

Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 07:49:53 PM EST

none

Agreed. It does make me feel some better that no one in the Kremlin has given approval of or for that matter even acknowledge the General's comments.

Otoh, neither Putin nor Medve-whatever-the-fuck-the-sock-puppet's-name-is has actively disavowed the comments either.

{Insert amusing quotation here}

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Re: Is anyone else starting to get a little nervou

Lou.

Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 02:57:40 PM EST

none

Yes...agreed.  When I first read that, I had a WTF moment.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

1

no greater friend eh?

wetkarma.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 07:51:26 AM EST

4.25 (interesting, astute, astute)

Hard news is a bit sketchy, but if the reports are to be believed, Georgia tried to retake S. Ossetia without a contingency plan for dealing with the Russians. I'm not sure whether Russia was expected not to do anything, or if the USA was supposed to come to the rescure, but Georgia's politicians now look stupider than the Argentine junta did in invading the falklands.

Here's the question we need to ask ourselves: if your friend goes up to a guy in a bar and tosses a drink in the guys face....are you obligated to help your friend in the ensuing brawl?

As to the idea that Russia's response was disproportionate -- I don't see America volunteering to fight with IED's and kalishnakovs in Iraq. Its war..you use what you have to win.

Still this flare-up shows how much weaker America is as a result of the Bush administration -- even if we really had the balls to face down Russia, we don't have the troops to do it.

In the end the west took Kosovo from Serbia, and now Russia is repaying the favor.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

2

^ 1

Re: no greater friend eh?

skeptic.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 08:51:11 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

Excellent comment, I think you have wrapped the situation up nicely.

I would also like to add that in general, the whole question of exactly how a region of a country can legally secede from another country, and under what circumstances should the world community accept and support the autonomy of that seceding region, remains an urgent and unresolved issue which should have been included in the UN charter in order to make life simpler for everyone.  There are numerous conflicts in the world involving attempted or accomplished secessions.  Russia, which supports the secession of South Ossetia from Georgia, opposes the secession of Chechnya from itself.  The US opposes the secession of South Ossetia from Georgia but supports the secession of Kosovo from Serbia.  Canada is supportive of Kosovo but worried that Quebec might secede.  And so on.  There is no consistent policy.

Personally I believe that the world could be a much more peaceful and safer place if the global community, by way of the UN, were to simply accept that by applying the basic concept of democracy, it makes sense that any group of people (of, let us say, a minimum population of at least 50,000) should have the right to decide by free democratic vote, what kind of government they want and to which country, if any, they would like to belong.  Any region should therefore be able to secede from the country it is part of, should the population of that region so vote.

Does this therefore cause the world to fragment into a chaotic and unworkable multitude of tiny nations?  Not really.  Because no matter how numerous and how tiny the nations of the world may become, they can still form international alliances much like the very successful European Union, which I think is a model for the future of global politics.  So, South Ossetia is not seeking international isolation, it would still want to have good relations with both Georgia and Russia if it were able to do so.  The right kind of alliance would make that possible.

It is ridiculous that people have to die because of these kinds of disputes.  The human race has got to become more mature about these things.

3

^ 2

Re: no greater friend eh?

delete me.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 09:44:19 AM EST

none

Personally I believe that the world could be a much more peaceful and safer place if the global community, by way of the UN, were to simply accept that by applying the basic concept of democracy, it makes sense that any group of people (of, let us say, a minimum population of at least 50,000) should have the right to decide by free democratic vote, what kind of government they want and to which country, if any, they would like to belong.  Any region should therefore be able to secede from the country it is part of, should the population of that region so vote.

I would like to point out that we went from "the United States are" to "the United States is" because of what happened during the 1860s.

Of course, in that particular case, a group of people within the seceding portions weren't allowed to vote (none of the blacks, and only half of the whites).

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

5

^ 3

I'm wondering how far skeptic's ...

MayorBob.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 09:53:20 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

... commitment to the rights of secession actually go. Would he be in favor of 100,000 people of similar ethnic and religious backgrounds announcing they're settling in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan or some desolate stretch of prairie in Wyoming to establish their sovereign republic? Would he concur with partition of Quebec from Canada? I do hate to Godwinize threads but has anyone else felt that the Russian actions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia smack of Hitler's insistence on protecting Sudeten Germans?

Illegitimi non carborundum.

6

^ 5

Re: I'm wondering how far skeptic's ...

delete me.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 09:59:06 AM EST

none

Hey, us Japanese were only freeing Asia from the yokes of Western imperialism.

(Us being Japanese seeing as the country my mother was born in had their asses kicked by the Japanese after they freed us from the yokes of Chinese imperialism.)

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

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^ 6

That's all right.

MayorBob.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 10:00:28 AM EST

none

You're one of us now. Scary thought, I know, but true nonetheless.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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^ 5

how far will I go?

skeptic.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 09:42:39 AM EST

none

Absolutely, I support the right of 100,000 like-minded people in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan to secede from the US and to create their own country if they so desire - provided only that they are willing to assume responsibility for their share of the ridiculously large American national debt.  You can't just walk out on your debts.  And yes, I absolutely support the right of the population of Quebec to secede from Canada if they so desire (with a similar fiscal requirement; Canada also has a substantial national debt, although nothing like that of the US).

I also agree with you that the Russian invasion of South Ossetia is similar in many respects to the invasion of the Sudetenland by the Third Reich, and I strenuously object to what Russia has done, which is much worse than what Georgia has done.  Nonetheless, my proposal of permitting regional groups to secede would have avoided all the violence, and in the end, how much does it really matter whether South Ossetia is part of Georgia or part of Russia?  (Especially if it can remain friendly with both countries.)  How many people have to die to determine which country gets to possess that region?  Just imagine if the Sudeten Germans could have simply voted to alter their national affiliation.  Perhaps WW II could have been avoided.  Wouldn't that have been a good thing?  Although by the time WW II began, the world was already a mess; what the world really needed was to avoid WW I, which laid the groundwork for all the insanity which has followed, even up to the current conflicts such as the war in Iraq - a nation which was only created because of the fall of the Ottoman Empire as a result of WW I.  But I digress.

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Re: how far will I go?

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 11:15:57 AM EST

none

I support the right of 100,000 like-minded people in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan to secede from the US and to create their own country if they so desire...
I take it, then, that you want the 14th Amendment to be repealed? Or do you think a portion of voters in the Upper Peninsula should be able to nullify the constitutional rights of the minority?

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Re: how far will I go?

skeptic.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 11:53:48 AM EST

none

Your comment is reasonably relevant and I am going to relent on my previous decision to refrain from replying to any of your comments, although I am also not going to enter into the kind of endless debates that you & I have had previously.

The 14th amendment requires that all states must give equal protection under the law to all citizens within their jurisdiction.  What I am suggesting is that states, or sections of states, could be allowed to secede and form independent nations or political units of whatever name; if that were to happen, then the citizens of that newly formed nation would no longer be under the jurisdiction of the state to which they previously belonged, and therefore, the 14th amendment (along with the rest of the US constitution) would not be applicable.  However, the newly created state would probably want to join the UN and in that case, the UN charter would be applicable.  I also anticipate (in my original comment in this discussion) that newly seceded states would be likely to join in new political and economic alliances in the manner of the European Union, and thus, would also incur other treaty obligations.  

One of the problems of democracy as a system is that there is no guarantee that the majority will act in what we might consider to be an enlightened manner.  I am certainly in favor of the protection of the rights of minorities (and I personally belong to at least three different minority groups) but it is always possible for the majority to abuse minorities if they are determined to do so.  We can write guarantees of minority rights (such as the 14th amendment) into the law, but the majority can always revise or revoke such laws if they want to.  And unpopular laws tend to be violated and are often not well enforced.  The law can only do so much.  Hence, the best protection is an educated public which understands the value of minority rights.

My radical proposal on secession could result in some repressive states which abuse the privilege of nationhood.  But I still think that on the whole, by avoiding all the civil wars that disputes about secession have already caused and would otherwise continue to cause, the world is better off.  And international alliances such as the European Union, which many nations want to join, can still offer incentives for more responsible government.  I think that international standards of democracy will tend to form, regardless of the political fragmentation caused by many seceding regions.  Although, to some extent what I propose is a huge experiment whose results cannot be fully known in advance.  Still, the principle is essentially democratic.  Let any given population make their own decisions about which country they belong to.  It seems reasonable to me.  And it gives people so much less reason to go to war.

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Re: how far will I go?

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 12:10:35 PM EST

none

The 14th amendment requires that all states must give equal protection under the law to all citizens within their jurisdiction
No, the Equal Protection Clause is only part of the 14th Amendment. The first clause says,
All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.
The bit I was referring to is, "No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States." I am a US citizen - if the state in which I live suddenly secedes from the US, how will my rights as a US citizen be protected?

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Re: how far will I go?

skeptic.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 12:28:55 PM EST

none

If a given region (such as South Ossetia, to use the currently relevant example) secedes from some larger state (such as Georgia) and that secession is accepted by the international community, then everybody living within that new state will undergo a change of citizenship, losing their previous citizenship and gaining a citizenship in the newly created state.  That's how it would work.  Think back to the American Revolution, for example.  Residents of what used to be the 13 colonies were previously British citizens, and as a result of the revolution - and regardless of whether they personally supported or participated in that revolution - they became American citizens instead, and ceased to be British citizens (although Britain continued to dispute that outcome until after the War of 1812 when the issue was finally settled).

Again, this could be an example of the tyranny of the majority.  Maybe you voted against secession and you prefer to remain a US citizen.  But if the majority of voters in your region votes to secede, then they will take you with them, unless you move away.  Again, during the American Revolutionary War, many loyal British citizens moved to Canada in order to avoid losing their valued British citizenship (collectively these people were known as the United Empire Loyalists).  

Democracy is an imperfect system.  Sometimes the majority does things that we as individuals do not like,  But that's the way it works.  Democracy, for all its flaws, is still the best system that we have.

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Re: how far will I go?

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 12:43:31 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

Okay, so your answer is "you think a portion of voters in the Upper Peninsula should be able to nullify the constitutional rights of the minority."

Take your idea to it's logical (though admittedly extreme) conclusion: if a state can vote to secede from the nation, or a portion of a state, then why not a county or city or borough or neighborhood or block? What you are calling democracy is really anarchy.

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Re: how far will I go?

skeptic.

Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 12:30:19 PM EST

none

I actually did address this point in my original comment.  I suggested that there should be a minimum requirement of 50,000 people in order to form any new political unit.  Obviously, if we take things to the ultimate extreme, so that even a single person could declare himself or herself to be an independent nation of one, we would indeed have political anarchy.  I also pointed out in my original comment that although the possible proliferation of many new, small nations might seem to make global politics more chaotic, that would not necessarily be the case, because these new smaller nations would find it advantageous to join political alliances such as the European Union (or other, similar alliances) which would be able to perform many of the same functions that were previously performed by the larger nations from which the new, smaller nations seceded.

And yes, a majority (whether a majority of the population of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, or of the United States of America, or of any other actual or hypothetical political entity) can, in a democratic system, nullify the constitutional rights of a minority - if necessary, by altering the constitution which has guaranteed those rights.  The whole concept of democracy, in which the majority rules, has always presented an inherent danger to minorities, who do not rule (which is not to say that undemocratic systems work any better; they usually are even worse).  It is an inescapable imperfection in the democratic system of government.  We can only work toward having a sufficiently enlightened majority that they will choose to respect the rights of minorities, because they will understand that minorities deserve to have rights.  This is an ongoing struggle in any democratic nation, large of small, new or old.

My suggestion of allowing regions to vote to secede from nations to which they belong does not create a new peril for minorities that doesn't already exist.  Why, for example, is it that in the current United States, with its 14th amendment that guarantees equal treatment under the law for everybody, we still have unequal treatment of the homosexual minority?  In Canada, it was decided by the Provincial supreme courts, and later confirmed by the federal supreme court and eventually by Parliament, that equal treatment necessarily means that same-sex couples have the same right to marry that opposite-sex couples have.  It's a very logical decision which protects minority rights.  Yet in the US, which in theory guarantees equal treatment of minorities due to the 14th amendment, there are only a few states in which same-couples can legally marry, and there is no support on the federal level for same-sex marriage, there is hostility if anything.

You seem to assume that if some piece of the US, such as the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, were to secede from the US, that the rights of minorities would not be respected in this new political entity (let's call it DRUM, for the Democratic Republic of Upper Michigan).  For all we know, minority rights would be even better respected in the DRUM than they presently are in the US.  There is nothing about secession which inherently leads to the abuse of minorities.  Indeed, secession is often motivated by the desire of a minority to form its own country where it will become the majority.  For example, that is the motive behind the creation of Israel in 1948; Jews had been persecuted all over the world as a despised minority, and they concluded that they had better form their own country where they would be a majority (although this was not exactly the same process as secession, it was more of a revolution in an existing country).  

You may point out that Jews, in asserting their own rights, wound up violating those of Palestinians (an argument I have already had at excessive length, and which I am not about to have again) but that is not the point, the point is that the creation of new countries can be a means by which minorities seek to protect their rights.  Indeed, in the case under discussion, of South Ossetia, the desire to secede is undoubtely motivated by the belief by ethnic Russians living in South Ossetia that their rights are not adequately respected by the majority of Georgians.

Respect for the rights of minorities will be an issue in any nation, large or small.  Whether we should permit regions such as either South Ossetia, or the purely hypothetical nation of DRUM to secede, is a separate issue from that of minority rights.  Naturally, it would be my hope that the rights of minorities would be respected in South Ossetia (if their secession succeeds, as it appears that it will, given massive Russian backing) or in the DRUM or in any other seceding entity.  And it is my hope that the rights of minorities will also be respected in existing nations such as the US, which needs to do better.  But that really is a separate issue.  

Although I suppose the issues could be linked if you really wanted to link them.  How about this:  we create a new UN treaty which sets out the conditions under which any section of an existing country can secede from the country to which it belongs, and we stipulate that any such seceding entity must have a constitution in which the rights of minorities are protected, along with the stipulation of a minimum population of 50,000 (if you think that some larger number would work better, I would at least be interested in your reasoning) and any other requirements which may be appropriate.  That would seem to address your concerns.

 

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Re: how far will I go?

JimmyHavok.

Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 04:07:40 AM EST

none

Would you propose that 50% + 1 would be the necessary number to vote for secession, or would you want a higher majority?

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Re: how far will I go?

skeptic.

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 10:07:27 AM EST

none

Personally I feel that a 50% +1 majority should be sufficient for secession.  If we believe in democracy, then the majority rules.  Why should a minority of the population be allowed to prevent the majority - however slender that majority may be - from having the kind of nationality or political affiliation that it wants?

Secession is a very serious step, which has profound consequences and not inconsiderable costs in terms of the resulting re-organization that would be needed, and therefore it should not be entered into lightly.  But we must expect that when and if a given region has a vote on the issue of secession, the voters will be aware of the serious consequences of secession, and if they vote in favor, it is because they think that secession is worth the cost.  

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Re: how far will I go?

JimmyHavok.

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 05:18:09 PM EST

none

Why should a minority of the population be allowed to prevent the majority - however slender that majority may be - from having the kind of nationality or political affiliation that it wants?

They can always immigrate...

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immigration vs. secession

skeptic.

Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:00:56 AM EST

none

Of course, they can always immigrate (or emigrate, as the case may be).  For example, rather than going to war with Georgia, the ethnically Russian population of South Ossetia could have emigrated to Russia.  That would have been a very neat solution.  But people do not like to give up what they have, particularly when it comes to their homes, farms, territory, and so forth.  Emigration can be a costly strategy.  Still, sometimes it is the way to go.  And in theory, you don't have to lose anything, if you can sell what you have at a reasonable price, and then use the money to buy equivalent property in your new location.  Unfortunately, it doesn't always work out that easily.  But it should, in a saner world.

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^ 3

the Civil War

skeptic.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 09:32:08 AM EST

none

I do consider the American Civil War to be a special case, morally speaking, because slavery was intolerable and had to be ended at any cost (although the cost turned out to be extremely high).  But if slavery could have been ended by other means, and the South still wanted to secede, they should have been allowed to do so, in my opinion.  The union which was entered into on a voluntary basis, logically could be withdrawn from on a similar basis.  There is nothing in the constitution which says otherwise.

12

^ 2

Re: no greater friend eh?

JimmyHavok.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 05:46:31 PM EST

none

I like the idea.  I've been proposing that Hawaii secede from the US and annex itself to France for a long time...ever since I learned abut their 35-hour work week, in fact.

13

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Re: no greater friend eh?

thefadd.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 06:48:05 PM EST

none

It brings up an interesting question of what could/would a modern progressive democracy do if a portion of its population in an area like Hawaii peaceably decided to leave. It's especially appropriate given the reaction already existing against Bush in places like New Hampshire where libertarians have targeted as possibly moving to en masse in an attempt to gain control of a state.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

17

^ 12

French Hawaii

skeptic.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 10:39:44 AM EST

none

To paraphrase General DeGaulle, vive le Hawaii libre!

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Re: no greater friend eh?

ckm.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 03:12:41 PM EST

none

Well, the balls the West in general could have are nothing to do with a military intervention.   The quickest way to stop Russia would be simply to block all financial transactions by anyone associated with the country.

However, the cost to the West could be huge.   It's not really a matter of weakness on the part of the US or anyone else, but simply the reality that there is little anyone (except perhaps Turkey) could do short of carpet bombing Russians.

Basically, the only person that mis-calculated in all of this is the Georgian president.  Everything that happened from then on was predictable.

Chris.

4

Re: The Bear Is On The Rise In Georgia

delete me.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 09:52:23 AM EST

none

Thanks to our being at war in two fronts with a military force designed to handle two fronts in case of an emergency, there's no fucking way the USA can intervene in the country of Georgia. Nor do we have the moral high ground to do so, due to how we've treated our prisoners, both American and non-American.

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

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Re: The Bear Is On The Rise In Georgia

zyxwvutsr.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 10:26:32 AM EST

5.00 (interesting)

Why should we bother to intervene even if we were in a position to do so? The US and Europe benefit from having a stable Georgia no matter how that stability comes about. As long as the oil pipeline is secure, why should I care if it is Russian troops or Georgian troops (or some combination of the two) maintaining that security?

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Implications

uncarved block.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 12:44:32 PM EST

5.00 (interesting, astute, astute)

    I seem to recall that "stability" was a big part of the reason the US backed Saddam Hussein back in the 80s. Sometimes sentiments like, "no matter how that stability comes about" have come back to bite the US in the ass, is all I'm sayin', so who's in charge of that pipeline might make a difference in the long run-- or at least it's worth more than a shrug.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

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Re: Implications

zyxwvutsr.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 08:46:30 PM EST

none

...it's worth more than a shrug
How much more? If the US had shrugged when Kosovo declared independence (not to mention when the sovereign democracy of Serbia was dealing with an internal terrorist group a few years back) then I think we might not be discussing Georgia today.

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I Don't Know

uncarved block.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 11:31:38 AM EST

none

    But then again, you and I (hopefully!) don't have access to a ton of info that makes a lot of difference. Was this campaign calculated to take place during the Olympics, in order to dodge media attention? That would indicate a well planned campaign, rather than a simple reaction. How badly did the Georgians act-- or is it all Russian propaganda? Is this just some saber rattling to tell the Georgians to butt out, or part of a larger effort by Putin to bring that republic back into the fold? If it's the latter, then "stability" is an unlikely result for the next 5-10 years, and a little action now might prevent the need for a whole lot of action later.
    There's also the more general foreign policy framework to consider: if Russia is entitled to act this way with its neighbors (in its "security sphere", if you will), then why not Iran? If the answer to that question is simply, "because one is stronger than the other", then why shouldn't Iran go ahead with a nuclear weapons program? (To mention just one implication.) As of now, the administration appears to want to be consistent-- the US has a right to have a say in just about everyone's affairs, and border security is no excuse for aggression. And then there's the question of European re-militarization, and the continued strong presence of the US over there, and so on . . .
    I don't have any answers, but it seemed to me that if stability was the goal, some kind of US action (military or not) was not necessarily off the table.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

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Re: I Don't Know

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 12:26:35 PM EST

none

Is this just some saber rattling to tell the Georgians to butt out, or part of a larger effort by Putin to bring that republic back into the fold? If it's the latter, then "stability" is an unlikely result for the next 5-10 years, and a little action now might prevent the need for a whole lot of action later
Yeah, remind me again why we've needed to expand NATO. Is it because the US really needed the 2,000 Georgian troops in Iraq?

This action by Russia has been a long time coming. They've been sending warning signals for years.

...why shouldn't Iran go ahead with a nuclear weapons program?
Because Israel will bloody their nose if they do. (I mean, really, what sort of language do you think a theocracy will understand?)

...it seemed to me that if stability was the goal, some kind of US action (military or not) was not necessarily off the table
What I am suggesting is that US action (military and otherwise, such as the expansion of NATO) should have been off the table years ago. I know that most Americans have forgotten (or never noticed) that the US has been sticking their thumb in Russia's eye, repeatedly, ever since the end of the Soviet Union, but I bet the average Russian hasn't forgotten.

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Re: I Don't Know

PenitenziAgite.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 10:55:07 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

I bet the average Russian hasn't forgotten.

No bet.  It doesn't make the news here, but Russia genuinely feels as though they are being encircled by allies of the U.S. and NATO.  With early warning radar installations in Poland and Czech Republic, the admission of the Baltic states to NATO, U.S. Navy presence in the Black Sea courtesy of Bulgaria, NATO trying to operate in Afghanistan, it's not difficult to see why.  

Russia is flush with cash right now.  The Russian Air Force no longer has to sell rides in their MiG-29s to rich westerners to pay the bills.  They can finally put enough Su-33s on the Kuznetsov, and buy all the other toys their armed forces need to stay current.  

 

sierra tango foxtrot uniform

9

^ 8

Re: The Bear Is On The Rise In Georgia

delete me.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 10:32:44 AM EST

none

I'm not saying we should. I'm pointing out that realistically, we can't.

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

10

^ 8

My diary entry

T Slothrop.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 11:23:50 AM EST

none

Zyx highlights the point I was trying to get at in my diary entry.

Yes Putin is a first class asshat.
Yes invading a another sovereign nation should be wrong.
Yes South Ossetia is clearly geographically (if evidently not culturally) part of Georgia.

But at the end of the day, Georgia is not a member of NATO. So as long as Europe's pipeline connections aren't threatened, is it really in the interests of the US to maybe start some kind of low-budget version of World War III over Comrade Stalin's birthplace?

{Insert amusing quotation here}

26

^ 4

Re: The Bear Is On The Rise In Georgia

ckm.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 03:25:45 PM EST

5.00 (astute, interesting)

It's really not a matter of 'we can't', it's much more a matter of 'what would you do'.   Realistically, even if the US had all available forces, there are a limited number of actions that it could do in response to this, most of which take some time to put together.  

The only realistic short term military action the US could take is to bomb Russian positions from the air, something which it could easily do from bases in Turkey regardless of current commitments.  But, what would that actually accomplish?  Create a war with the Russians?  Make them more angry?

I suppose we could parachute in 5k troops, but what would they do?  Fight the Russians?  Sit around and pretend to protect what?   Besides, it's not like the US public has a stomach for more body bags.

Let's face it, the inability of the West to respond to this has nothing to do with weakness or capability constraints, but more to do with the fact that there is little, other than financial pressure, that would result in a desirable outcome.  Fundamentally, while the Russians have won this battle, they are well on their way to a much wider loss, as this action has confirmed what Western countries had suspected for a long time, that Russian cannot be trusted as a partner in the Western sense, and moving towards being an enemy in the cold war sense.   That, in the long term, will be far more damaging than the Russians even realize, esp. after the oil boom is over.

As far as Georgia goes, what we should have done is told the Georgians in no uncertain terms that they were f'd and on their own if they attacked anyone.   Given that they did it anyway, I would suggest that the current US path of sending humanitarian supplies via the Air Force and Navy is quite a good strategy as it will put a block on Russian invasion without firing a shot.  And it's something that everyone can support.  

Chris.

27

Me war you long time

Lou.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:27:39 PM EST

none

Neocons have been in a funk ever since those ungrateful Iraqis stopped throwing roses at our tanks...oh sure, the Surge perked them up a bit.  But it was never really the same.  But wait?  What's this?  Could it be?  YES!  The Return of History!

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

35

The Boys With The Poi Want Their Kingdom Back.

MayorBob.

Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 08:44:31 PM EST

none

Now, if Putin will only send a brigade or two of helpful Russian "volunteers" things could get really interesting in the Aloha State.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

36

^ 35

Re: The Boys With The Poi Want Their Kingdom Back.

delete me.

Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 09:13:31 PM EST

none

I like the news headlines in the sidebar to the right:

» Hawaiian group storms Iolani Palace
» Maui park on lookout for aggressive WASPs

Okay, so it wasn't capitalized ...

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

37

^ 36

Yoicks!

MayorBob.

Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 10:35:25 PM EST

none

That's one nasty looking insect.  I can imagine how getting attacked by a few of those puppies might ruin an early morning cycle down Haleakala.  Stinging insects and me just don't mix well.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

38

^ 37

Re: Yoicks!

delete me.

Sun Aug 17, 2008 at 01:50:59 AM EST

none

One of those ruined a day of fishing for me when I was a kid there. I was fishing in Pearl Harbor when one of those yellowjackets landed on my face. Then it crawled in one side of my glasses, across the bridge of my nose, and out the other side of my glasses. The legs feel like pins, but I guess I must have stood still enough for it to not sting me.

I don't recall taking any of my fishing gear with me when the yellowjacket flew off and I booked for home.

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

41

^ 35

Re: The Boys With The Poi Want Their Kingdom Back.

JimmyHavok.

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 05:23:27 PM EST

none

A month or so ago, we had another sovereignty group calling itself Kingdom of Hawaii Government invade Iolani Palace.  They were handled with kid gloves, and allowed to set up some sort of operations in the palace.

I guess Kingdom of Hawaii Nation thought they should up the ante a little.  But none of them had ever been in the palace before, and so they had some difficulty finding the throne that they planned to chain their king to.

I can understand somebody being so crazy as to think he is the King, but to be able to persuade two dozen other people?

42

^ 41

Re: The Boys With The Poi Want Their Kingdom Back.

MayorBob.

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:04:05 PM EST

none

Apparently, the "King" couldn't find the throne room. Wouldn't the man who would be king be able to turn that trick?

Illegitimi non carborundum.

This story: 43 comments (3 from subqueue)
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