Politics

Campaign 2008: First Debate [Breaking News]

profwhat.

Posted to Politics on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:30:21 PM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

The first real debate of the 2008 campaign is over.  The candidates began discussing the current economic crisis, and then moved to foreign policy.

Instant reactions?  Stanley Kurtz of National Review: "I think McCain clearly won this debate, chiefly because he came across as advertised: extremely comfortable and experienced on issues of defense and foreign policy."  Kos of DailyKos: "There were no gaffes, and no obvious YouTube moments, so if nothing else, this debate maybe reinforced Obama's fitness to be president, but I don't think that line of attack has had much salience beyond the wingnut sense anyway."

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by profwhat, politics, election, McCain, Obama, debate, foreign policy, 2008 election (all tags)

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1

Re: Campaign 2008: First Debate [Breaking News]

port1080.

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:37:11 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

My instant reaction was that Obama came across stronger through most of the debate, except for the very final statements, where I think McCain really hit a home run as he signed off.  My wife, who leans more Republican, thought Obama came across as somewhat elitist while McCain seemed more approachable.  Generally I thought Obama seemed more composed and more willing to give detailed (although still annoyingly vague) and nuanced answers.  McCain seemed more forceful and arrogant, and often downright condescending.  By rights, I guess I feel Obama should be considered the "winner" (whatever that may mean), but considering my increasingly low opinion of the American public, I'm guessing that within a few days we'll come to learn that McCain "won" because Obama is a "wussy faggot Muslim", while McCain "came across as a real man, a War Hero(TM)".  Action figures, a cartoon, and a Super Value Kids Meal Toy soon to follow.

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Re: Campaign 2008: First Debate [Breaking News]

joshv.

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:46:31 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

I didn't really see a clear winner here, and certainly didn't see McCain getting his "ass handed to him" as logan predicted.   I think both sides will see something to like in their candidate's performance, and a reason to claim victory - which means it was really a pretty boring debate that won't change many minds.

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Re: Campaign 2008: First Debate [Breaking News]

port1080.

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:52:59 PM EST

none

I think both sides will see something to like in their candidate's performance, and a reason to claim victory - which means it was really a pretty boring debate that won't change many minds.

Yeah, I pretty much agree with that.  Either way this was an "on points" win - nobody had a knockout.  The question is, how is the spin going to play out over the weekend?  A lot of times a debate that seems to go to one candidate or the other in the immediate aftermath eventually turns into a knockout when one side or the other makes a clever ad or what have you that ends up re-shaping people's perceptions of what actually happened.  How sad and pathetic is it that we're talking about this, and that we all freely know and admit that perception matters far more than reality when it comes to presidential elections?  WTF?

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Re: Campaign 2008: First Debate [Breaking News]

port1080.

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 11:03:48 PM EST

5.00

How sad and pathetic is it that we're talking about this, and that we all freely know and admit that perception matters far more than reality when it comes to presidential elections?  WTF?

Slate's campaign blogger actually has the nerve to gripe that the debate focused on substance and that it didn't have any "one-liners" or "gotcha" moments.  This is a bad thing?  Candidates are soberly discussing policy and this is a bad thing?  Seriously, WTF.  I mean, we know that political coverage is all about the horse race these days, and nothing about trying to get out there the candidate's actual policies or opinions, but at least have the decency not to admit it!

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Re: Campaign 2008: First Debate [Breaking News]

thefadd.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 03:31:22 AM EST

5.00

I listened to parts of the debate as it was going on then caught some of NPR's "analysis" on the ride home. They said the same thing, calling it the most substantive debate they'd heard in decades and decrying the lack of zing.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

12

Tie goes to the gentleman from Arizona.

pO157.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 07:57:03 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

I think McCain held his own. He did very well during the second half. With all that has gone horrifically wrong with the US foreign policy over the past years, Obama should have easily been able to land a knockout at least once in this debate. He did not not.

As much as I hate to say it, McCain won.

13

an unmoderated bleh...

1fastdog.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 08:52:18 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

Watched the whole thing and found it mostly a draw.
Could've been, should've been much better.
From the Kos link:

One other point -- Lehrer was the best moderator, BY FAR, of any debate this season. And the audience was perfectly behaved. A triumphal debate. Perfect. Kudos to everyone involved in making it happen.

Sorry but Lehrer missed opportunity after opportunity. He was all too willing to let the candidates recycle talking points endlessly w/out really challenging them on it. Excepting the part where he repeatedly pressed both on what they'd cut from their presidential wish/programs list as a response to the financial crisis, he never really challenged them on their stances or their mischaracterizations of each other. Would've liked to see Lehrer put some pressure on each candidate's truthiness aspect. The WaPo did a live fact check on last night's statements as the debate was going down, and there's no reason someone couldn't have updated Lehrer in a similar fashion so's he could press 'em to explain.

Somewhere in my soul, there's always Rock -n- Roll... Joe Strummer

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Lehrer

profwhat.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 09:23:05 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

I will hear no criticism of my man, Jim Lehrer.  Perhaps he was "willing to let the candidates recycle talking points endlessly w/out really challenging them on it," but--take note, Stephanopoulos and Gibson--the job of a debate moderator is not to "challenge" the candidates.  The candidates are there to challenge each other.  If one candidate says something dumb, it's up to the other candidate to both notice that and call the other candidate on that.  If the moderator starts challenging people on their dumb statements, the moderator ceases to be a moderator and become a combatant.

14

I'd Say It Was A Tie.

MayorBob.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 09:11:07 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

Low on histrionics and no knock out punches.  For whatever it's worth, this was supposed to be the debate where McCain had all the strength and depth.  Yet, Obama managed to keep his head above water.  One noticeable absence in this debate -- McCain barely used the words change at all.  It will be interesting to see how the other debates go.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

16

My YouTube moments

profwhat.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 09:37:42 AM EST

5.00 (funny)

Jim Lehrer:  Which of your spending programs will you scale back, given the new $700 billion bailout?

Obama:  We need to lay broadband lines that reach into rural communities.

McCain:  I will consider a spending freeze on everything but defense, veteran affairs and entitlement programs.

Jim Lehrer:  What's this about talking to terrorist dictators, now?

Obama:  Henry Kissinger told me to do it.

 MCCAIN: So let me get this right. We sit down with Ahmadinejad, and he says, "We're going to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth," and we say, "No, you're not"? Oh, please.

OBAMA: No, let me tell...

MCCAIN: By the way, my friend, Dr. Kissinger, who's been my friend for 35 years, would be interested to hear this conversation and Senator Obama's depiction of his -- of his positions on the issue. I've known him for 35 years.

OBAMA: We will take a look.

Kissinger:  Barack, you ignorant slut.

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Re: My YouTube moments

PenitenziAgite.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 07:17:19 PM EST

4.50 (astute, informative)

If you think that Ahhmedinejad is a dictator, then you are at best uninformed, and at worst a purposefully deceptive asshole.

sierra tango foxtrot uniform

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Re: My YouTube moments

profwhat.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 07:33:17 PM EST

4.00

Ok.  Which of those two labels do you apply to Columbia University president Lee Bollinger?

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Re: My YouTube moments

Lou.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 08:07:19 PM EST

none

I'd say misinformed...but I don't know the guy.  Either way, I don't know of many 'dictators' that can be voted out of office.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

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Re: My YouTube moments

JimmyHavok.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 10:03:39 PM EST

5.00 (astute, astute)

My guess is that Bollinger was just pandering to all the alumni who sent him nasty letters saying he wasn't getting any more donations, so he falls into the "purposely deceptive" category.

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Re: My YouTube moments

zyxwvutsr.

Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 12:31:26 PM EST

none

Since it beggars the imagination to suppose that you know more about the topic than, for instance, Tehran college students, are you saying these students are purposefully deceptive assholes?

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Re: My YouTube moments

PenitenziAgite.

Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 11:42:01 AM EST

5.00 (astute, astute)

Well, you know, college students tend to overstate things a bit.  The posts you have made criticizing American students for their over the top statements could fill a large SD card.

So, when American college kids get all histrionic, they're fulla crap, but Iranian college students are the portrait of sober, topical critique that would never overstate their point?  

College kids... they don't know what they don't know.  College kids in Iran right now were not alive when the Shah was in power.  They don't know life under a dictator any more than we do.  

They could, however, ask an Iraqi over the age of say, 18.

I'm not looking to excuse Iran's fucked-up government, or the bonehead President they have.  We are not exactly in a position to throw stones as far as bonehead Presidents are concerned, either.

I just have to say... I find your facile acceptance of Iranian college kids' extreme opinions a little hard to square with what I feel I know your opinion about a US college kid who said similar things about Bush to be, which is basically what I would say, which is "OK, kiddo, whatever you say..."

Come on, now.  Sauce for the goose.

sierra tango foxtrot uniform

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Re: My YouTube moments

skeptic.

Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 09:15:32 AM EST

none

It's true that Ahmedinejad is not a dictator, but it is also true that he has called for the destruction of Israel, which will become a problem if he actually attempts to carry out that destruction.  Sometimes such statements prove to be pure bluster, for example, the famous statement by Nikita Kruschev that "we will bury you" (i.e., the USSR will bury the US).  But sometimes they are an early warning of future plans.  

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Re: My YouTube moments

thefadd.

Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 06:41:00 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

The homeless guy down the street can also call for the destruction of Israel. And he's probably got about the same ability to follow through on those calls as well. Ahmedinejad isn't a dictator because he isn't in charge of anything.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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Re: My YouTube moments

skeptic.

Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:01:48 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

Ahmedinejad is not in charge of ANYTHING?  If that is the case, then Barack Obama's stated intention of holding talks with him (without preconditions) would seem to be rather pointless.

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Re: My YouTube moments

PenitenziAgite.

Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 11:28:49 AM EST

none

There's preconditions, and then there's "Do everything we ask, and then we can talk".  

The Bush admin's policy WRT to this is a total non-starter.  Could I bring you to the table by insisting that you first agree to my demands?

sierra tango foxtrot uniform

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preconditions

skeptic.

Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 09:57:33 AM EST

none

I agree that it makes sense to hold talks without preconditions if you are going to hold talks at all.  After all, anything that we might wish to stipulate as a precondition can still be raised int he course of the talks.  Talks can be productive or they can be unproductive, but you don't really know how they will turn out until you actually conduct them.

However, I have been told by two different people that it doesn't matter that President Ahmedinejad of Iran has called for the destruction of Israel (or, in some versions, has predicted that Israel will be destroyed if it doesn't give up its evil ways) because he has no power anyway.  And if that is the case, I have to wonder why the US would want to hold any talks with him at all, with or without preconditions.  Ahmedinejad's agreements will not matter, since they are not binding upon Iran, which is actually ruled by an Ayatollah, not by its President.  I suppose that talking to Ahmedinejad is somewhat like talking to, let us say, the latest winner of American Idol.  However famous these people may be, that does not give them any actual political power.  Some people are interested in what they have to say, but only out of curiosity.  

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Re: My YouTube moments

Lou.

Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 09:21:28 PM EST

none

Now, if we were talking about the mad mullahs or ayatollahs, they yep, I'd say something dictatorial.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

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Re: My YouTube moments

Shy Elf.

Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:13:09 PM EST

5.00 (informative, informative)

Iran is nothing close to a dictatorship.  It's a theocracy with some democratic elements.  There is quite a lot of separation of power, and the most powerful body is a 12 man committee, not a single person.

Iran is also not totalitarian.  There is quite a lot of opportunity to express dissent, and the rejection of reform candidates by the Guardian Council is more random than complete.  The democratic elements of the government leave at least the possibility of a peaceful USSR-style conversion to a government which is primarily a democracy, while this kind of possibility generally does not exist in a dictatorship.

Those who call Iran a dictatorship have generally swallowed at least some of the over-simplifying elements of the Palin doctrine, which says that "They're the bad guys and we're the good guys." and that "We shouldn't second-guess Israel."

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Re: My YouTube moments

PenitenziAgite.

Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:57:22 AM EST

5.00 (interesting)

If you look at his statements, you see that his rhetoric with respect to Israel is more along the lines of "If Israel continues to act in the irresponsible ways that it does, then it will not survive.", rather than "We, Iran, will wipe Israel off the map".  His speech at Columbia reiterates this.

The man is a clown, but he doesn't have to the power to appoint the dog catcher in Teheran, let alone order the military to do anything.

sierra tango foxtrot uniform

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Re: My YouTube moments

thefadd.

Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:09:56 PM EST

4.66 (funny, funny)

The man is a clown, but he doesn't have to the power to appoint the dog catcher in Teheran, let alone order the military to do anything.

People wearing members only jackets so rarely do.

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

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Re: My YouTube moments

port1080.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 10:05:06 AM EST

4.00 (interesting)

McCain: I will consider a spending freeze on everything but defense, veteran affairs and entitlement programs. How is that even remotely meaningful? Defense and entitlements make up the lion's share of the budget. You could take out practically all other spending and we'd still be in financial trouble. That's like a finance banker who just lost his job, has $50,000 in credit card debt and a $1.2 million mortgage that's about to reset saying that he'll probably give up his daily latte to save some money.

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Re: My YouTube moments

joshv.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 09:57:06 AM EST

none

I just liked listening to them try to pronounce "Ahmadinejad" repeatedly.  Now quick, say "Ahmadinejad" ten times real fast.

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Re: My YouTube moments

ms sue.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 10:53:53 AM EST

none

Did Barack at any time during the debate suggest that the President should sit down with Iran w/o preconditions?

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Re: My YouTube moments

joshv.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:05:32 AM EST

none

It's Obama's official position on the issue.  "Obama supports tough, direct presidential diplomacy with Iran without preconditions. " - http://www.barackobama.com/issues/foreignpolicy/ .   Perhaps Obama doesn't believe in that position strongly enough to openly defend in a direct debate with his biggest critic on this issue.

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Re: My YouTube moments

ms sue.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:31:19 AM EST

5.00 (funny)

So the answer is no, then.

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Re: My YouTube moments

joshv.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:48:00 AM EST

none

I don't recall his explicitly stating this in the debate, though I haven't scoured the transcripts.  My point is that it's his official position and thus fair game in a debate.

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Re: My YouTube moments

ms sue.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 12:11:02 PM EST

none

My point is that it's his official position and thus fair game in a debate.

I would agree with you if McCain had made it clear that he was responding to an "official position" and not to the statement just made.

So IMO, it's pretty much a wash. McCain was right if you factor in the unsaid word; Obama is correct as far as quoting Kissinger to support what he actually said.

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If you read further, there are preconditions.

MayorBob.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:12:24 AM EST

none

If Iran gives up its nuclear program, we'll do something really, really nice.  If they don't, we'll continue to treat Iran like a pariah.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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Re: If you read further, there are preconditions.

Shy Elf.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 12:45:06 PM EST

5.00 (informative, informative)

That's not a precondition.  It's a non-negotiable point.  A precondition is something that you have to agree to before you can even talk.

The trap, of course, was that before the debate Kissinger, a strong McCain supporter, was on public record strongly advocating high-level diplomatic talks without preconditions, but was not on public record stating that these talks should not occur at the presidential level.  It was only after the debate that Kissinger refined his public stance to oppose presidential talks.

What Obama said was not "Henry Kissinger told me to do it," but:

Senator McCain mentioned Henry Kissinger, who's one of his advisers, who, along with five recent secretaries of state, just said that we should meet with Iran -- guess what -- without precondition. This is one of your own advisers.
And guess what.  That is what he said.

McCain said:

He said that there could be secretary-level and lower level meetings. I've always encouraged them. The Iranians have met with Ambassador Crocker in Baghdad.
The problem with this, of course, is that throughout the campaign, McCain's stump speech has been to rail at Obama for wanting presidential level talks, without stating that he wanted lower level talks.  While he may have supported talks, he was very far from encouraging them, since his stump speech was generally taken to mean the exact opposite.

Finally, take a look at this McCain whopper:

The point is that throughout history, whether it be Ronald Reagan, who wouldn't sit down with Brezhnev, Andropov or Chernenko until Gorbachev was ready with glasnost and perestroika.

Or whether it be Nixon's trip to China, which was preceded by Henry Kissinger, many times before he went. Look, I'll sit down with anybody, but there's got to be pre-conditions. Those pre-conditions would apply that we wouldn't legitimize with a face to face meeting, a person like Ahmadinejad. Now, Senator Obama said, without preconditions.

This is a gross misrepresentation of history.  Ronald Reagan, in fact complained that the wanted to meet with Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko, but that they kept dying too quickly.  A visit by the secretary of state is not a precondition.  In fact there were preconditions for the Nixon/Mao meeting... but they were all imposed by the Chinese, not the U.S.

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Re: My YouTube moments

profwhat.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:28:04 AM EST

none

This is one of the delightful things that came up in the Democratic debates.  Obama was asked during the YouTube debate

if he would be willing to meet -- without precondition -- in the first year of his presidency with the leaders of Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea.

"I would," he responded.

Clinton said she would not. "I don't want to be used for propaganda purposes," she said. Clinton said she would first use envoys to test the waters.

(source).  Obama clearly screwed up in this answer, but he has steadfastly refused to admit the error, and has now practically elevated this error to a campaign promise.

Which makes me recall a surprising point McCain made last night:  Obama is similar to Bush in his stubborn refusal to admit error.

29

I can't believe I watched it, but

Steve Urkel.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 01:05:11 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

I thought Obama came out looking slightly better.

I'm always impressed by how much of our politics takes place in the realm of fantasy.

I'm extremely disappointed both want to add Georgia to NATO.

Also it was Iraq that had a Republican Guard. Iran has a Revolutionary Guard.

We should be talking about wrapping up Afghanistan, too.

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I forgot

Steve Urkel.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 01:42:25 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

Obama took this mysterious trip to Pakistan when he was in college. Was McCain repeatedly bringing up his own visit to Pakistan to try to get Obama to mention it?

 

31

Re: Campaign 2008: First Debate [Breaking News]

laputanmachine.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 02:27:50 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

Hmm I voted "tie" in the poll to the right, but I think McCain won, thinking about it now. Obama kept saying he wanted US forces to leave Iraq in order to focus on Afghanistan. When McCain countered by saying that both Al-Qaeda and the US military see Iraq as the central battleground, Obama did not, if I recall, counter. Afghanistan's situation may be deteriorating, but Americans simply won't care if the bigger threat is truly in Iraq. I also didn't see Obama say anything about the Iraq war being illegitimate. Instead he seemed to say it was simply unnecessary, and a poor focus of military resources. There was no moral difference between McCain and Obama, it seemed, only a strategical one. I didn't watch the whole thing though.

I also thought it was horrible that McCain brought up the Vietnam war, and honestly believes that Americans should have won that war, and that Obama did nothing to counter. I'm guessing this has to do with the sacred cow status of the US military, and the confused American viewpoint towards that war. That is, 99% of Americans think the Vietnam war was not worth fighting, but they still, bizarrely, wish America had won the war due to shame and "honor." It's an utterly idiotic viewpoint but most Americans hold it.

 This was all disgusting and ridiculous to me, since no one is advocating a second Vietnam war, and no one will, despite major reasons for the first Vietnam war still existing. The US invaded Vietnam in order to defend it from Communist take over. Guess what, it is taken over by Communists now. Let's go liberate them, shall we? It also invaded because of the Domino Theory, which claimed that a Communist takeover of Vietnam would lead to a Communist takeover of much of the rest of the world. That didn't happen. Since it didn't happen, this reason is totally invalid. The Domino Theory of the Vietnam War was the "WMDs" issue of that war. And like Iraq's WMDs, it failed to materialize.

 McCain also said that US troops weren't "allowed to win the Vietnam war."OK, so let's allow them to win it now. Looking at current US military performance in counter-insurgency warfare, it appears the US is far more capable of fighting against guerilla tactics than it was in the past. So why not invade Vietnam in the future and let them win the war this time? McCain brought up the Vietnam war as being just without following these views to the logical conclusion. He said it was a good war but did not say why it should not be waged in the future.

Obama stood mute about all this. Perhaps it was strategically right to do so, but right now it seemed like Obama and McCain were practically identical on issues of foreign policy. Maybe they have different reasons for their policy views, but this is a moot point if the end result is the same.

I also thought Obama should've struck McCain for bringing up Reagan. McCain mentioned Reagan a few times, implying he would be like Reagan. McCain also mentioned some kind of "League of Democracies" that the US should help form. Something where the US basically ignored the desires of any undemocratic country (or roughly 70% of the human race). The problem is... Reagan-era policies did not prop up only democratic governments, as we saw in the Iran-Contra scandals. And didn't the Reagan administration supply Iraq AND Iran with weapons during their war? To bring up Reagan as a source of inspiration while also saying that only democracies should be our allies is a contradiction, one that Obama should've pointed out. McCain wanted to eat his cake and have it too, or however that saying goes.

32

Re: Campaign 2008: First Debate [Breaking News]

laputanmachine.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 02:53:40 PM EST

5.00 (informative)

Wow, opinion polls are giving Obama the debate win, and by a pretty big margin too.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7640053.stm

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intrade prediction market

laputanmachine.

Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 03:53:58 AM EST

4.00 (informative)

https:/www.intrade.com
Also, Intrade Prediction Markets still has Obama leading McCain, with Obama at 57 to Mccain's 41.
If you want to put real money on your favorite candidate winning, here you go. I lost $25 on Hillary. Sigh.

49

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Re: intrade prediction market

jwb.

Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 02:54:19 PM EST

4.00 (informative)

Intrade has never predicted anything.  On Election Day 2004 Intrade had a 100-point intraday swing in the presidential race.  In other words, it has exactly zero predictive value even for things that are only a few hours in the future.

33

Random Thoughts

uncarved block.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 04:26:12 PM EST

5.00 (interesting, brilliant)

    You can disregard this comment right now if you want, as I didn't watch the debate, and almost never do view these things; the last time I watched was on vacation, and the only way to kill time was watch Kerry v Bush, and post at Plastic. These reactions are, as always, the result of trying to read between the lines of the coverage, and thinking about the larger framework.
    First, that framework. Why did McCain propose the whole "drop the campaigns" stunt earlier this week? Was it to drum up support for these debates, which might otherwise lose out to movies or parties? If that's so, a tie really would be a stunning loss, since the intent would seem to be to attract attention to some kind of smackdown-- which doesn't seem to have happened, by all the comments so far.
    So what if the delay wasn't for this reason? Well, let's take this two directions:

   A) McCain is ahead, and trying to keep Obama's campaign off balance. Possible, except the complaints this week have been, by reading titles, that Obama wasn't really doing anything. Now, preventing an action before it starts is good strategy, but you'd have to have some evidence that the Obama camp had something in the works, which doesn't seem to be the case. I could be wrong.
    B) McCain is behind, and trying to dent a small but unmoving lead. Remember, Obama only has to hit "Kerry +1 state" to win*, which isn't much of a margin for error for McCain. If the two campaign staffs are reaching similar conclusions via their polling (which they'd trust a hell of a lot more than anything I could link to, eh?), that might explain this last week pretty well. Obama is trying not to lose a small lead, and McCain is trying to force him in to some gaffe that would do just that. Either of these could be correct-- I guess we'll find out soon enough.

    Is Obama a bit stiff and formal? Well, you know who else is in public appearances? Clarence Thomas. Why is this a virtue for one and not the other? Because one is a Supreme Court justice, while the other wants to be president? A meaningless point. The far easier conclusion is that a certain formality is the least worst option for a black man in the public eye. Just a suggestion; at the very least, this is not an election where "have a beer with him" likability is going to get much traction with voters.

    Last thought on debates: can a candidate really win an election with a good performance? Or is it far more likely that one of the participants loses? If that's so, then it should come as no surprise that this was so "dull". Both men are senators, and understand quite well how to be smooth in ways governors would find detrimental, and this would show up in public appearance like a debate. Heck, compare the difference in tone between the House and Senate (on C-SPAN), if you want a second argument. I'd be stunned if anything tripped up either candidate in the next two debates, for this reason.

     *Depending on the state, obviously. Arizona (to be farcical) wouldn't do, but Ohio would.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

43

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Re: Random Thoughts

MC Nally.

Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 02:14:57 AM EST

5.00 (funny, astute)

the last time I watched was on vacation, and the only way to kill time was watch Kerry v Bush, and post at Plastic.
Pardon my lapse into LOLspeak, but:

VACATION -- UR DOIN IT WRONGZ.

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Heh

uncarved block.

Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 08:51:10 AM EST

none

    Yeah, that wasn't the best vacation ever. What the hell-- they can't all be trips to the Oregon coast. It was informative anyway, as all I had available was an Apple laptop, so I got a good bit of hands on experience with one without having to pay.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

34

move along, nothing to see here

DEMachina.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 04:37:04 PM EST

5.00 (funny, brilliant, funny)

I will confess that I didn't watch the debate last night.  As best I can tell I didn't miss anything.  The "debates" are terribly misnamed...they're nothing but unusually long campaign commercials.

I think I may watch the VP debate, although for the wrong reason.

Q: What do you think of western civilization? Gandhi: I think it would be a good idea.

35

Defining a winner

strangeluck.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 05:34:35 PM EST

5.00 (interesting, astute, interesting)

Everyone seems to be trying to determine a winner as if this was a college forensics tournament, and in this sense the conventional wisdom that it was a pretty even split seems correct. However, Obama comes out the winner in a political sense because of two things. First, he looked better. Where McCain was fidgety and uncomfortable, Obama seemed far more poised. Body language is very important, and McCain's wasn't good. Second, I think Obama had the evening's soundbite won with his "you were wrong," quote regarding Iraq. It was a very strong piece of rhetoric that's going to stick in people's heads much longer than anything else in the debate. They may have tied on the substance, but Obama won on the style.

20

I thought McCain won

ms sue.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:00:56 AM EST

4.50 (interesting, interesting)

In fact, I was so sure of it that I was shocked to find out from the pundits and polls right afterward that I was wrong.

As for McCain's consistent condescension, Obama had no choice but to ignore it directly. But why in the hell didn't he at least hammer the guy with indirect references to a need for reform, for change, for youthful (without using the word) energy?

5

Re: Campaign 2008: First Debate [Breaking News]

tomc.

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 11:33:46 PM EST

none

Obama didn't win.

McCain didn't lose.

Winner: McCain.

6

^ 5

Re: Campaign 2008: First Debate [Breaking News]

Shy Elf.

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 11:47:01 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

Agreed, it was generally a tie.  On the other hand, if the reason to vote for McCain is supposedly his foreign policy experience, and the debate on foreign policy is a tie, what reason is left to vote for McCain?  Obama wins ties in this debate.  Conversely, McCain wins ties in the next debate.

8

^ 5

To Wit

thefadd.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 03:39:35 AM EST

5.00 (astute, interesting)

A hate to be smarmy but wasn't the winner tonight the American people? Weren't these the two most level headed reasonable men you've heard in American political discourse since...ever? Weren't these two guys who earnestly seemed to actually want to discuss...issues? I hate to say it but if you look past the partisan screeds, neither of these guys really sucks does he?

Couldn't we all agree to throwing Joe Biden and Sarah Palin off a cliff and having a Roman system? Whatever happened to the guy who comes in second getting to be veep? Screw that Thomas Jefferson!

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

9

^ 8

Re: To Wit

delete me.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 04:00:23 AM EST

none

Plus, if things don't work out so smoothly, we can have the vice president shooting peo-

Wait, we have that again, don't we?

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

10

^ 9

Re: To Wit

thefadd.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 04:39:36 AM EST

5.00 (informative, astute)

If Cheney killed Bernanke in a duel, I really don't know what the hell people would think. But it sure would make great television!

It is easy to buy small plaster models of what you think life is like.

36

^ 8

Re: To Wit

Shy Elf.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 06:58:15 PM EST

none

Actually, I also think both of them did quite well.  Just running through the press gauntlet they have to  without any major gaffes is difficult enough.  They're both expected to know everything about everything.

I was disappointed in both of them for citing Al-Quaeda as the greatest threat we face, although Obama at least brought up the military implications of a weakening economy, and McCain spent a lot of time talking about the threat posed by Russia.  I was also disappointed in both of them for citing the lesson learned in Iraq as (paraphrased) "don't fuck up", instead of the importance of making sure that all parties have a stake in the success of the new government, or even the importance of maintaining an adequate police presence at all times, or some other thing that we actually did learn there.  Both talked about Iran's "Republican Guard," but this sounds close enough to "Revolutionary Guard" to be excusable, as is McCain's fumbling over the pronunciation of Ahmadinejad.

McCain impressed me by volunteering that our interest in Georgia was about the oil gas pipeline, and by actually disagreeing with Obama whether we should to bomb in NW Pakistan, because we need an effort more collaborative with local leaders.

 The whole Kissinger love-fest struck me as rather odd, but Obama impressed me with his anti-realpolitick summation of our current problems with the Pakistani government.

McCain blunted the criticism about his opposition to diplomacy by announcing that while he was still opposed to presidential meetings without preconditions, and oddly viewed direct negotiation itself as a valuable reward, he at least believed in Secretary of State level negotiations without preconditions.

41

^ 36

Re: To Wit

JimmyHavok.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 09:45:38 PM EST

none

McCain's fumbling over the pronunciation of Ahmadinejad.

I thought I was watching The Colbert Report for a moment.

disagreeing with Obama whether we should to bomb in NW Pakistan,

No, he said we shouldn't say we'd bomb, not that we shouldn't bomb.

[McCain] at least believed in Secretary of State level negotiations without preconditions.

No, he believed that he had a way to attack Obama, that's all.

11

Tie

permazorch.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 05:18:53 AM EST

none

And like Tom says, a tie is a win for McCain.

Wow. That debate sucked ass. I wanted Obama to crush McCain into talcum powder, but no, he played it demo-centro safe.

They were both horrible, by my lights. I guess I've been watching too many Frank Capra movies, lately, and I wanted Obama to channel Jimmy Stewart (beyond the stuttering and 'errrs').

----- The earth may burn, but we will quiver

27

^ 11

Re: Tie

delete me.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 12:18:14 PM EST

none

Tie? On a foreign policy debate?

The "inexperienced" fellow wins; the "experienced" fellow with the in-depth tour of Vietnam should have blown him out of the water.

If McCain ties on a domestic affairs/economy debate, he can take that as a win.

- derumi (del-me)
"Bobby Fischer? Man, that guy is crazy!" - Mike Tyson

40

^ 27

Re: Tie

permazorch.

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 09:33:07 PM EST

none

I guess I saw it as letting McCain get away with defining the context of Iraq, negotiating with 'rogue' states, and Russia's party with Ossetia/Georgia.
Any time money was mentioned, Obama could've said, "Iraq".
When talking about 'the surge', or winning in Iraq, Obama should've said, "The war was lost by starting it. It was a despicable immoral act."
Instead, Obama reminded me of John Kerry and Al Gore, in that wishy-washy chasing the center, limp-dicked democrat way. It's not good.
I believe he could've taken McCain to the cleaners, and I believe he should have crushed him, and I think the average American right-leaning voter would have more respect for that action.
The right-wing is nothing if not devout, and True Believers have zero respect for someone who hems and haws about what is, and what should be. They prefer a fellow who doesn't believe to be upfront with his atheism, heresy, what have you...

No, last night should have been a crushing and humiliating defeat for John McCain. The moral/ethical/practical high ground was held by Barack Obama. He qualified himself into a tie.
FUCKING LAME.

----- The earth may burn, but we will quiver

46

^ 40

Re: Tie

ms sue.

Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 11:59:00 AM EST

5.00 (astute, astute)

I believe he could've taken McCain to the cleaners, and I believe he should have crushed him, and I think the average American right-leaning voter would have more respect for that action.
The right-wing is nothing if not devout, and True Believers have zero respect for someone who hems and haws about what is, and what should be. They prefer a fellow who doesn't believe to be upfront with his atheism, heresy, what have you...

As it is, there was considerable chatter about how hot-headed and angry Obama was during the debate. Sure, those chatterers were watching a debate of their own imagination, but who do you think those chatterers might be? That right-winger of which you speak, that's who. Yeah, he likes bravado, maybe even bluster, and a shot of anger. But from a black man? I don't think so.

And that is why Obama has so far allowed his more genteel instincts to lead him.

48

^ 46

Re: Tie

permazorch.

Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 02:35:14 PM EST

none

But from a black man? I don't think so.
Oh, yeah.

I forgot about that. You've probably hit the nail on the head (sadly enough).

----- The earth may burn, but we will quiver

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