Politics

xXx: State of the Union

pO157.

Posted to Politics on Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 02:49:14 PM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

The President is expected to give his first state of the union at a time when a large segment of America is very angry at the way the government is behaving. Having no health care victory to report on, the President is expected to try to present a hopeful plan for the future and assuage the fears of 72% of Americans who believe the federal government is not effective or needs large reforms.

The speech comes out among new numbers that say two thirds of Americans do not believe the stimulus has helped low income people, and the majority believe it was simply a cash handout to the wealthy or politically connected. The Congressional Budget Office also raised its final cost estimate of the last stimulus bill by $75 billion, citing overruns.

Congresspeople, Senators and bureaucrats supposedly took the election of Scott Brown to heart. Insiders say that while the event may not have shifted public opinion much around the country, for the elected officials in DC, the fears are job related. The nomination of Ben Bernanke to a second term as Federal Reserve Chair appears to be moving forward and will achieve the needed 60 votes. President Obama is reportedly worried as well, despite a recent increase in approval to about 50%. Sources say in his speech that he will admit certain missteps during his first year in office and discuss how he plans to overcome them.

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by pO157, State of the Union, Obama, Ice Cube, Samuel L. Jackson, Xzibit (all tags)

This story: 79 comments (2 from subqueue)
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5

Re: xXx: State of the Union

DEMachina.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 05:36:58 PM EST

4.00 (drunk)

The Huffington Post has a drinking game that will end your shit: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/26/state-of-the-union-drinki_n_436932.html

Q: What do you think of western civilization? Gandhi: I think it would be a good idea.

1

Re: xXx: State of the Union

Lou.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 03:23:22 PM EST

none

As was mentioned in the subq, after tonight's speech we will see the beginning of the longest lame duck administration is history.  I admit...I was wrong.  However, I still feel things would have been as bad or worse with McCain...but that's a moot point now.

Why does reduced fat Swiss cheese have twice as many holes are regular Swiss cheese?

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Re: xXx: State of the Union

port1080.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 04:09:49 PM EST

none

I wouldn't be so discouraged...Clinton hardly looked like a two-termer at this point in his presidency.  Reagan didn't either, for that matter.  If nothing else, even just one term of Obama will preserve the ideological makeup of the Supreme Court for another few years (assuming Stevens and Ginsburg retire or die before 2012, which seems relatively likely in both cases).  If Kennedy or Scalia drop (unlikely, but possible - neither are spring chickens) we could even see a switch to one of the more liberal courts in a generation.  That said - wow there should be term limits on the Supreme Court.  I'm somewhat sympathetic to the notion that judges need to be insulated from political pressure, but their ability to axe democratically determined laws with essentially no consequence is problematic.  

This is especially true since it's become so difficult to pass a constitutional amendment (it's been almost 40 years since the last significant amendment - the 27th hardly counts - before that in the 20th century we were average 1 every 11 years, with the longest layoff being 18 years between amendments).  There was a notion there for a while that the Constitution wasn't locked in stone and that it could and should occasionally be updated to meet the times.  At some point that feeling was replaced by a belief that we must all live in servitude of a political system designed in a world that had more in common with the 14th century than with our own.  At least for a while the SCOTUS was willing to offer some flexibility, but since O'Connor left the court it's like it's 1790 again.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

3

^ 2

Comeback kid?

Lou.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 04:25:26 PM EST

none

Good point about Clinton and Reagan...however, I'm not getting that vibe from Obama.

Why does reduced fat Swiss cheese have twice as many holes are regular Swiss cheese?

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^ 2

Re: xXx: State of the Union

Steve Urkel.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 05:11:50 PM EST

none

"their ability to axe democratically determined laws with essentially no consequence is problematic"

Are you referring to Roe v. Wade?

"it's become so difficult to pass a constitutional amendment"

Maybe because no one is proposing any popular constutional amendments. It's not supposed to be easy to pass unpopular amendments.

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^ 4

Re: xXx: State of the Union

port1080.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 06:59:29 PM EST

none

"their ability to axe democratically determined laws with essentially no consequence is problematic"

Are you referring to Roe v. Wade?

To some degree, yes - I think that decision came too soon and the country would have been better off if abortion had been legalized through the legislative process (it's worth pointing out that it was already legal in many states before Roe v. Wade).  I feel much the same way about the current gay marriage case that's being argued in California - I believe it's too soon, and if they do win the backlash will outweigh the gains.  If they lose, the precedent will set their cause back even further.  Generally speaking, I think that the courts should respect legislative intent, unless there is a blindingly egregious disconnect between the legislation and settled constitutional law.  I also, however, think that legislation should be both easier to pass and easier to overturn than it generally is in the US (as I've mentioned before, I would favor some sort of modified parliamentary system, which would place much more power in the hands of the majority party).

Maybe because no one is proposing any popular constutional amendments. It's not supposed to be easy to pass unpopular amendments.

I think the failure of the ERA killed the desire to attempt any more amendments.  Despite the fact that it was very popular* and ratified by 60% of the states (including almost all the major population centers, putting the population total approving it well above that percentage - and if you include the states that later rescinded their ratification, that total goes up to 70%), it could not reach the threshold required for ratification.  Requiring 38 states to ratify basically means that state legislatures that represent as little as 5% of the population of the United States (the combined population of the 13 smallest states) can derail an amendment.  Perversely, on the flip side, since the 12 most populous states make up 60% of the US population, it would actually be possible to pass a constitutional amendment with just a minority of the US population approving of it (if the 12 most populous refused to ratify, but the rest did, then it would have been approved by legislatures representing only 40% of the country's population), particularly if the amendment was proposed by calling a new Constitutional Convention (which needs the votes of only 2/3 of the state legislatures, which could represent as little as 30% of the US population).  I find it hard to believe that the founding fathers intended anything like this - when the constitution was written, the 5 smallest states (5 being the number needed to derail an amendment or ratification), represented about 15% of the US population (and as a percentage of the voting population, even more than that, since total US census numbers include slaves from the southern states who couldn't vote, therefore inflating the totals).  In 1780 the smallest state (Delaware) had 8% of the population of the largest (Virginia).  Today the smallest state (Wyoming) has just 1.5% of the population of the largest, and a full 19 states have less than 8% of California's population.  These demographic imbalances have moved us well beyond the spirit of the Great Compromise.  Small states have far more power now to block or implement constitutional change than was ever intended.

*If you don't have access to jstor, the article has a chart of public opinion polls that shows the ERA never dropping below 52%, and for most of the time under consideration (from 1974 to 1982) between 55% and 74% of the public supported it, depending on the year.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

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^ 7

Re: xXx: State of the Union

Steve Urkel.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 07:14:50 PM EST

none

The failure of faddish nonsense like the ERA to pass shows the process is working.

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^ 10

Re: xXx: State of the Union

port1080.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 07:31:09 PM EST

none

Yes, an Amendment that maintained the support of more than 50% of the population (and often had the support of more than 2/3 of the population) for 8 years in a row was clearly a fad.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

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^ 12

Re: xXx: State of the Union

Steve Urkel.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 07:38:21 PM EST

none

Disco had a lot of popular support during those 8 years, too.  

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^ 14

Re: xXx: State of the Union

port1080.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 07:43:03 PM EST

none

There hasn't been a whole lot of recent polling data (at least that I could find), but evidence suggests that such an amendment would still be favored by a majority.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

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^ 15

Re: xXx: State of the Union

Steve Urkel.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 07:44:51 PM EST

none

Maybe Obama should make it the centerpiece of his 2012 re-election campaign.

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Re: xXx: State of the Union

port1080.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 08:11:51 PM EST

none

If we had a rational presidential election system, where a majority of votes was all that was required to get you elected, then yeah, I'd say he should.  Since he has to win votes in small population reactionary backwaters, unfortunately it's not an option.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

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^ 16

Prediction

Lou.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 10:31:41 AM EST

none

Obama won't run for re-election.

Why does reduced fat Swiss cheese have twice as many holes are regular Swiss cheese?

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^ 16

Prediction clarification

Lou.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 10:53:06 AM EST

none

He won't run for re-election unless something dramatic occurs to improve his status.

Why does reduced fat Swiss cheese have twice as many holes are regular Swiss cheese?

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^ 2

Re: xXx: State of the Union

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 07:03:25 PM EST

none

...their ability to axe democratically determined laws with essentially no consequence is problematic
You don't find it problematic that Congress occasionally passes unconstitutional laws?

There was a notion there for a while that the Constitution wasn't locked in stone and that it could and should occasionally be updated to meet the times
What amendment are you proposing?

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^ 8

Re: xXx: State of the Union

port1080.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 07:22:30 PM EST

none

You don't find it problematic that Congress occasionally passes unconstitutional laws?

No, because I don't think the laws they pass are blatantly unconstitutional most of the time.  Ricci and Citizens United probably both would have been decided differently under the court of the 1990s, for example.  Indeed the court explicitly reversed precedent in the Citizens United decision.  The problem there wasn't Congress, the problem was that the court changed its mind.

What amendment are you proposing?

Well, I think a campaign finance reform amendment would be a no-brainer, since time and again finance reform has been passed into law only to be overturned by the Supreme Court.  Finally pass the ERA.  Although I would be on the other side of the potential outcome (as I oppose gun control, but I think a majority of the US population probably favors stricter controls than I do), I think it would be fair to put the 2nd Amendment up for clarification as to its meaning vis-a-vis the right of individuals to own guns for personal use.  More broadly, I'd propose some of the changes I've mentioned in the past, but that aren't even on the radar because they would be impossible to ratify (things like changing the way Congress works, making representation more in line with population, etc.).

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

18

^ 11

Re: xXx: State of the Union

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 08:27:01 PM EST

none

The problem there wasn't Congress, the problem was that the court changed its mind
The problem was a court that was willing to ignore the plain language of the Constitution in order to further their own ideology.

I think a campaign finance reform amendment would be a no-brainer...
Sounds complicated. What's the text?

...pass the ERA
That sure would keep the courts busy. Anyway, why is the ERA needed when we have the 14th Amendment?

6

^ 1

Re: xXx: State of the Union

Steve Urkel.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 05:57:07 PM EST

none

Imagine if John Edwards had won.

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^ 6

Re: xXx: State of the Union

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 07:04:12 PM EST

2.33 (funny, ugly)

An ugly First Lady and an even uglier First Mistress.

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^ 9

Re: xXx: State of the Union

port1080.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 07:32:54 PM EST

none

An ugly First Lady

Keep it classy Kenny-boy.  Nothing like insulting a women with a terminal illness who's going through a painful public separation with her husband to prove your manhood.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

19

^ 13

Re: xXx: State of the Union

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 08:27:52 PM EST

none

Have you ever heard anything good about either John Edwards or his wife? Neither have I.

20

unbelievable

gerrymander.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 02:11:00 AM EST

none

Wow. Has any president ever tried to school the Supreme Court during the SOTU? "With all deference to separation of powers, I have no idea what 'separation of powers' means." Maybe it's time the press started digging up Obama's law student/professorial writings. They shouldn't be too hard to find in the stack, what with them apparently being written in crayon.

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Re: unbelievable

T Slothrop.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 02:20:50 AM EST

none

A new standard for "glib, self-serving bullshit" has been established, that's for sure. I was prepared to be pissed off. I almost always am when this guy stands up in front of a teleprompter. But this was worse than I could have possibly imagined.

"Fuck you, America. I'm smarter than you and I know what's best for you..."

Your authority is not recognized here in Fort Kickass...

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Re: unbelievable

joshv.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 06:06:45 AM EST

none

Just stop thinking and let the rhythm of his words wash over you.  Let your emotions rise and fall in step with this dulcet cadences.  Quite soothing.  Problems?  What problems?  Big O's on the job.  

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Re: unbelievable

Lou.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 09:19:13 AM EST

none

Do you think that most people feel that way?

Why does reduced fat Swiss cheese have twice as many holes are regular Swiss cheese?

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^ 28

Re: unbelievable

T Slothrop.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 11:03:19 AM EST

none

Sadly I think on any given day around 50%(+/-3 or 4%) of the electorate does feel exactly that way. I think that's how Obama got the job in the first place.

Your authority is not recognized here in Fort Kickass...

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Re: unbelievable

Lou.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 11:06:56 AM EST

none

You might be right...but there is a silver lining, after all.  If things continue on the way they're going, he won't get to keep the job.  We only have three years to go.  That's far less than what he had to endure with Shrub.  

Why does reduced fat Swiss cheese have twice as many holes are regular Swiss cheese?

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Re: unbelievable

port1080.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 08:05:55 AM EST

none

"Fuck you, America. I'm smarter than you and I know what's best for you..."

Generally speaking, don't you want a president that's smarter than you?

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

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^ 24

Re: unbelievable

T Slothrop.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 10:58:24 AM EST

5.00

Of course I want a president whose IQ is on the rightmost 10% of the bell curve. I would hazard a guess that pretty much every guy who has held the office (with the possible exception of Shrub and maybe a couple of the more obscure 19th century one-termers) has met that standard.

I would also hazard a guess that every regular poster to this site also meets that standard. You certainly do.

I'm not talking about measured intelligence in this context as much as I am attitude. The concept of humility seems to escape this guy. The events of the past few months might have led a more humble guy to a conclusion like "Perhaps I am trying to change too much too fast." For Obama, it's "Obviously I didn't do a good enough job explaining this to you. I remain confident that when you get it, you'll agree with me."

Ummm no, Barry. We do get it and we don't agree.

Your authority is not recognized here in Fort Kickass...

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Re: unbelievable

port1080.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 12:48:45 PM EST

none

For Obama, it's "Obviously I didn't do a good enough job explaining this to you. I remain confident that when you get it, you'll agree with me."

Ummm no, Barry. We do get it and we don't agree.

I'm not sure that's the case (I'm not talking about you specifically - I believe you understand the legislation - but of people in general).  Take healthcare reform.  When polled, people overwhelmingly support the details of Obama's plan.  People want this kind of reform.  The question is, why isn't it popular?  Partly, because a certain chunk of people oppose it from the left because they don't think it goes part enough.  Partly, because it is popular, but since it takes 60% of the Senate to pass the damn thing, the opinions of people who are a minority in the country overall, but who make up a majority in certain key states, have hamstrung the Senate effort.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

57

^ 43

Re: unbelievable

T Slothrop.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 02:39:16 PM EST

none

I disagree. I think people overwhelmingly support the results that Obama claims that this legislation will produce: Lower out-of-pocket costs, better care, cheaper drugs, portability, and at least a partial elimination of the "pre-existing condition" gotcha.

Hell I support all that.

What people increasingly don't believe (and rightly so) is that either version of this bill as it now stands will achieve any of those goals.

Your authority is not recognized here in Fort Kickass...

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^ 43

Re: unbelievable

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 03:02:14 PM EST

none

Do you honestly believe that the Democrat's bills, as currently written, will lower the deficit, insure more people, and allow you to keep your current plan if you wish?

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Re: unbelievable

port1080.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 08:06:29 AM EST

none

"Fuck you, America. I'm smarter than you and I know what's best for you..."

...and I say that as someone that wants a president who is smarter than myself

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

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Re: unbelievable

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 09:16:32 AM EST

none

You aren't concerned about having a dishonest president?

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Re: unbelievable

Lou.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 10:33:53 AM EST

none

"I'm the decider"  Same thing, fewer words.

Why does reduced fat Swiss cheese have twice as many holes are regular Swiss cheese?

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Re: unbelievable

T Slothrop.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 10:59:49 AM EST

none

Exactly, Lou.

I didn't like it any better when Shrub said it, either.

Your authority is not recognized here in Fort Kickass...

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Re: unbelievable

joshv.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 06:08:28 AM EST

none

Though, the point of that little rhetorical excursion was to highlight the need for more transparency in lobbying activities.  A laudable, if tad idealistic goal.

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You couldn't make this up

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 09:14:15 AM EST

none

There was one paper he contributed to, The Curvature of Constitutional Space: What Lawyers Can Learn From Modern Physics. From the abstract:

Quantum physics undermined the confidence of scientists in their ability to observe and understand a phenomenon without fundamentally altering it in the process...judges and lawyers need to recognize the profound impact that the law has in shaping the social background...The very act of judging alters the context and relationships being judged.
It's pretty funny if you know anything about quantum mechanics.

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Re: You couldn't make this up

Thalia.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 01:05:20 PM EST

5.00 (clarifying)

The article was by noted Constitutional scholar Lawrence Tribe, and Obama was thanked along with a number of other people in a footnote for research assistance.  Obama was a law student at the time.  How is that relevant to anything?

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Re: You couldn't make this up

port1080.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 01:29:52 PM EST

5.00 (informative)

Obama was a law student at the time.  How is that relevant to anything?

I'll concur that it's not.  I've been footnoted as a research assistant for two or three books.  I didn't write a word of them and didn't really contribute any original ideas either - mostly just corrected footnotes and that sort of thing.  It's hardly meaningful at all.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

59

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Re: You couldn't make this up

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 03:05:22 PM EST

none

It's not relevant to anything: Tribe is a liberal.

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Re: Not sure if serious

pO157.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 10:12:27 AM EST

none

Did he really say the second half of that quote or is that your editorial commentary?

Never compromise.

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Re: Not sure if serious

Lou.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 10:16:57 AM EST

none

I googled the phrase and even though a statement like that would stick out like a sore thumb, I couldn't find it attributed to Obama.

Why does reduced fat Swiss cheese have twice as many holes are regular Swiss cheese?

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Re: Not sure if serious

pO157.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 10:19:03 AM EST

none

The first half of it was definitely in the speech at the portion where he talked about the recent SCOTUS decision, but I couldn't find the 2nd part.

Never compromise.

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Re: Not sure if serious

Lou.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 10:22:06 AM EST

none

You're not implying that Gerry made that up, are you?

Why does reduced fat Swiss cheese have twice as many holes are regular Swiss cheese?

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^ 31

Re: Not sure if serious

gerrymander.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 12:49:52 PM EST

none

The second half is very much my editorial commentary.

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^ 44

Re: Not sure if serious

pO157.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 02:10:01 PM EST

none

OK then. The quotes threw me off for a bit. The first part is bad enough but had the second part been true I probably would have a blood pressure of 200bp.

It was entirely possible that I missed it as I turned the speech off after the first 45 minutes. The combination of demanding fiscal conservatism after spending the first 20 minutes talking about increased spending plans coupled with Nancy Pelosi's retarded seal-like antics (best description evar!) made it unfun to watch.

Never compromise.

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You're unbelievably dishonest with that "quot

Thalia.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 01:09:22 PM EST

none

Let's try actually quoting what Obama said, instead of putting your editorial flourish into his mouth, shall we.  What Obama ACTUALLY said was:

With all due deference to separation of powers, last week the Supreme Court reversed a century of law that I believe will open the floodgates for special interests -- including foreign corporations -- to spend without limit in our elections.  (Applause.)  I don't think American elections should be bankrolled by America's most powerful interests, or worse, by foreign entities.  (Applause.)  They should be decided by the American people.  And I'd urge Democrats and Republicans to pass a bill that helps to correct some of these problems.

His statement is absolutely correct.  The Supreme Court did reverse a century of law, and american elections shouldn't be bankrolled by the richest, or foreign entities.  So what exactly do you find unbelievable in the above quote?

Stating that the Supreme Court reversed law?  It's true.  Stating that we should address this to pass a bill that corrects these problems?  I don't see how that indicates a lack of understanding of the separation of powers.

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Re: You're unbelievably dishonest with that "

gerrymander.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 01:37:04 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

The Supreme Court did reverse a century of law, and american elections shouldn't be bankrolled by the richest, or foreign entities.  So what exactly do you find unbelievable in the above quote?

The misstatement of law, and the ham-handedness of making the actual quote.

Obama's statement was not correct. The Citizens United ruling did not address contributions to elections. It addressed participation in public speech leading up to elections. That's not a small difference, and coming from a former law professor, it's a shameful conflation to mistake the two.

Then, there's the question of why this was brought up in the SOTU at all. I don't have a problem with Obama complaining about a SCOTUS ruling; all presidents do that eventually. But doing it there, in that way, was all manner of stupid. To begin, it was a public dressing-down of a group which in total is on par with the president in status, and was very disrespectful. Even worse, however, was the form of disrespect. It was directed at a close split decision where the majority opinion was written by Kennedy -- Justice Swing Vote! How much up his own ass does Obama have to be to think that public carpet-calling of the one guy in position to make or break legal challenges to this administration was a good idea?

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^ 49

Re: You're unbelievably dishonest with that "

Thalia.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 02:14:07 PM EST

none

Obama did not say contributions.  I think he parsed his words rather carefully.

As to why he brought it up, it's been a huge issue in public discussions in the last week.  It's timely, and an issue.  He could, and possibly for politic reasons should, have skipped the first half of his first sentence.  But the call for reform and the danger of elections controlled by corporate entities is real and is an issue of note.

I do not believe that Kennedy is either so small minded or so easily influenced that pique at the President will make him change any of his views.  Maybe you disagree.

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^ 56

Re: You're unbelievably dishonest with that "

gerrymander.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 03:11:00 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

Obama did not say contributions.  I think he parsed his words rather carefully.

Obama said: "I don't think American elections should be bankrolled by America's most powerful interests, or worse, by foreign entities." The operative phrase is bankrolled elections. If he parsed his words carefully, it was with a deliberate attempt to mislead the public about the nature of the decision.

I do not believe that Kennedy is either so small minded or so easily influenced that pique at the President will make him change any of his views.  Maybe you disagree.

I don't. I think Kennedy is a professional. But it's not an either/or case of principles vs. spite. There's not a secret pre-ruling to every potential case in Kennedy's head which he then pulls out during decisions, or chooses to disregard. It's his (and the other eight justices) job to weigh conflicting factors, then decide. Obama went out of his way to put Kennedy in a position where subtle shading of dislike might now be a factor where it wasn't before. For that reason alone, it was stupid.

And if we're wrong? Then it's really stupid. There is no recourse whatsoever short of murder that Obama can take if Kennedy decides to fuck him for the remainder of this term.

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Re: unbelievable

pO157.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 03:28:27 PM EST

none

Apparently you are not the only person who is annoyed by this.

Never compromise.

29

Incremental Change

joshv.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 09:32:47 AM EST

none

Obama rebuffed those "some people who say"  that he's taking on to much in trying to reform the entire healthcare system.  As one of those people who say that, I find his response disheartening.  

What the f'in hell is wrong with incremental change?  Can't you maybe fix one thing and then move on to the next?  I don't find the argument that complex systems can only be changed as a whole, or not at all, to be convincing in the slightest.  Could somebody who does please explain this concept to me?

I think the appropriate response for Obama to the healthcare backlash is to pick the most urgent healthcare issue on his list - and fix it.  Save the other stuff for another day, or another president.

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^ 29

Re: Incremental Change

Milo.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 12:08:55 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

I don't know if you are a programmer -- a lot of us are -- but this is a common argument engineers make (often the ones who think they are a lot smarter than they are).

Any time you have a large system that needs to undergo radical changes (like big new features), you'll have an engineer take one look and say, "Yeah, the only way to fix this is to re-write it from scratch". And when they go on to do that, nine times out of ten it fails. There are many reasons. The first is that they'll end up making as big of a mess as the system they are replacing. The second is that they don't really understand the system they are replacing. The third is that their clean new architecture may not perform well as the old kludgy (but probably tuned) one. And so on.

A newer way of looking at this problem is a little different -- but something that seems to have worked well for me in the past. It is often associated with the term "refactor" -- even though different people see that word meaning slightly different things. The crux is that you try to maintain a working system at all times. Then you slowly fix up the worst parts of it, bit by bit. Then, once the architecture is ready, you add the new "features" in a way that is more elegant than what you could have from the start.

This, I think, is what we should do with healthcare. I think zyx is saying something similar above me. We have some idea what "big changes" we want. But the system isn't ready for them. So we need to create some laws to "refactor" the system into place. Then we can add the new "features" without breaking everything ;)

-milo-

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^ 42

Re: Incremental Change

Thalia.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 01:12:43 PM EST

none

I find the opposite to be the case in most actual software companies.  In most cases the management insists that changes be made based on the existing code base, and what they end up with is Windows Vista, a big hairy mess that barely works because it's bogged down by legacy code and design decisions made decades ago that don't work well.  And when something breaks you end up spending millions of dollars trying to detangle spaghetti code.  It's a pretty good analogy of what law looks like with incremental change.

50

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Re: Incremental Change

joshv.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 01:52:22 PM EST

none

Actually Microsoft is a perfect example of what Milo is talking about.  They almost always have an incremental approach to software development.  They maintain backwards compatibility (sometimes to a fault) and even when they revamp major components, there's always a base of the old left around.

Despite your clueless claims about Vista, this is an extremely successful approach to software development.  The annals of software history are littered with the corpses of companies that attempted a 'from scratch' re-write of their software.  On the other hand MS has profited handsomely by acquiring code from others and then incrementally advancing it.

There is a rather significant counter example however - the move from Mac OS to OS X on the Mac.  Note that it wasn't a totally clean break.  They created Mac OS like programming APIs to ease converting software from the old platform to the new.  Those APIs are still around and used extensively today.  Had they not done this, OS X would have been a complete and utter failure.

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Re: Incremental Change

gerrymander.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 08:26:16 PM EST

none

There is a rather significant counter example however - the move from Mac OS to OS X on the Mac.

I disagree. OS X is the rule that proves the rule, not the exception. There's no question that Apple did some remarkable graphical interface development, but the core of OS X is Linux, with a parentage running almost a decade longer than MS DOS.

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Re: Incremental Change

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 08:46:08 PM EST

5.00

...the core of OS X is Linux...
FreeBSD, not Linux.

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Re: Incremental Change

gerrymander.

Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 12:29:05 AM EST

none

Whoops. Yeah, you're right. The larger point remains.

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Re: Incremental Change

Milo.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 01:53:31 PM EST

none

If management is smart, they will insist on incremental changes (in most cases). But I think you missed the point of what I was saying. Adding features to ugly code will, usually, make the code uglier. The "refactoring" part is the important part (and the part you glossed over). Making incremental improvements to right (or improve) the architecture is an important first part in the process.

Let's take your Windows Vista example. The problem with Vista is that they took a (likely) hairy codebase and slapped on a bunch of fancy features. And they did a crappy job. They realized their mistake. Windows 7 was more of a stability enhanced version of Windows. What they likely did was a lot of "refactoring" under the covers to improve things. (Though I don't know, I don't work there). In any case, anyone can make a crappy product even if they do incremental changes or refactoring.

But you seem to think Vista would have been better off if they had thrown out all the Windows XP code and started from scratch. In that case what likely would have happened is: Vista would have been 10 years late (and been canceled long before completed) and if it somehow did ship, all your old Windows software wouldn't work. Yeah, you might have cleaner code (though maybe not, it's a complex system) but you probably would have killed Windows in the process.

-milo-

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Re: Incremental Change

gerrymander.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 08:32:36 PM EST

none

In that case what likely would have happened is: Vista would have been 10 years late (and been canceled long before completed) and if it somehow did ship, all your old Windows software wouldn't work.

This is truer than you think. This iteration of the Windows core started life as Windows NT (for "New Technology"). Microsoft went through three internal versions before having one workable enough to release -- and it took another five years and two relaunches before widespread adoption as XP.

Vista failed because the refactoring of the security model was completely unworkable to the end user. Windows 7 is succeeding because it successfully modified Vista's failures, based on three years of "field testing".

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Re: Incremental Change

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 03:08:06 PM EST

none

We can now add "computer software" to the long list of things you are deeply ignorant about.

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Re: Incremental Change

doom4rent.

Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 11:52:15 AM EST

5.00 (interesting)

My two cents: I work for a multimedia company, and for 4 years we've been running with a template designed to handle synchronized video and animation in a Flash swf.

Due to some "prophetic" (read: moronic) executive decisions, the template was built using a Flash first-gen slide-template (the next version of Flash updated this and accounted for some of the functionality we built from scratch but in a non-slide format) and for what we needed it to do... it was OK.

4 years later, the same code base is still powering several of our templates, while 3/4 of the codebase (literally) is wired to support unused features no sensible person wants or needs. We've removed what we could, but there's a wealth of fundamental code and platform issues that prevent very simple tasks from being performed in the template - things that customers actually want and are perplexed when we tell them it's not possible.

Moral of the story: A ground-up re-coding is necessary, sometimes. Sometimes it's not. This software analogy is not as simple as anyone wants it to be. Whether the systems Obama wants to change need incremental or fundamental changes is up for debate, but this idea of software ALWAYS requiring incremental changes is a joke. It depends on the situation, which should be obvious.

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Re: Incremental Change

zyxwvutsr.

Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 06:32:02 PM EST

none

Whether the systems Obama wants to change need incremental or fundamental changes is up for debate...
Indeed. Check out the latest news about the federal deficit: things need changing, but in precisely the opposite direction where Obama is pointed at the moment.

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Re: Incremental Change

joshv.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 06:35:47 PM EST

none

Microsoft reports $6.66b Q1 net profit, Windows 7 'fastest selling OS in history'.  Windows 7 - whassat?  Total rewrite?  Or an incremental improvement of that big hairy mess.

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Re: Incremental Change

Thalia.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 09:41:17 PM EST

4.00 (interesting)

And incremental improvement on a big hairy mess.  Actually, a noticeable improvement from the total pile of garbage that was Windows Vista, but still mostly shitty.  At least the took out some of the "features" they were planning for, so it actually doesn't crash nearly as often as Vista did.  Then again, I knew few places that updated from XP to Vista.  So by skipping a generation (Vista was mostly a loss) they can now claim that Windows7 is a winner because people want to upgrade from an OS that was first released in 2001.  Tell me again how this proves Microsoft knows what it is doing.

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Re: Incremental Change

joshv.

Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 05:36:55 AM EST

none

Ah, I see you drink strongly of the anti-MS kool-aid.  Surprised we didn't see you going on about how all the DRM slows things down.  Vista doesn't crash frequently, not any more frequently than XP - and in my personal experience less frequently.  Though I can count on one hand the number of times my XP/Vista machines have outright crashed in the last 10 years - so it's an admittedly small sample size.

In your personal experience, what about Windows 7 do you feel is shitty?  What was shittier in Windows Vista?

"So by skipping a generation (Vista was mostly a loss) they can now claim that Windows7 is a winner because people want to upgrade from an OS that was first released in 2001. "

#1 - you are basically admitting how damned successful XP was here.  XP was the result of incremental improvements on the NT 4 code base.  It's basically NT 4 with a new user interface.  #2 - The major reason Vista was so late was that MS tried to do too much.  If anything the tale of Vista proves the point that you should never attempt such a major overhaul.  If they'd not cut bait and dropped all those 'missing features' we'd probably still be waiting.  MS has basically admitted that it tried to do too much between releases, and has committed to a faster release cycle with more incremental change - the result?  Windows 7.

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Re: Incremental Change

Thalia.

Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 01:48:42 PM EST

none

I use XP at work, downgraded from Vista.  When I was running Word, Outlook, and Visio on my Vista system I was crashing about once a day, assuming I wasn't using any macros (with macros I was crashing about every hour).  Sinc neither Outlook nor Visio are particularly good at saving state, and a reboot takes 5 minutes, this was a real problem.  With XP I have to reboot about every 2 days, or my system slows down to a crawl.  Maybe I've drunk of the anti-MS koolaid, but my dislike of Windows has more to do with experience than with unsupported biases.  I spend a lot of my time using MS products (Word, Excel, Visio, Outlook are all MS products).  The counter-intuitive UI and crap stability pretty much are the reason I hate MS.

The problem with the incremental upgrades of Windows is that it now takes half my drive space just to install the damn thing.  It runs enough background processes that I have to upgrade my computer every time I upgrade the OS or it will stop working.  The only upside is that Intel and AMD processor improvements have kept up with the Windows bloat well enough that my computer still runs.

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Re: Incremental Change

port1080.

Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 02:18:39 PM EST

none

I use XP at work, downgraded from Vista.  When I was running Word, Outlook, and Visio on my Vista system I was crashing about once a day, assuming I wasn't using any macros (with macros I was crashing about every hour).  Sinc neither Outlook nor Visio are particularly good at saving state, and a reboot takes 5 minutes, this was a real problem.

That sounds more like a problem with your macros or something being misconfigured (or perhaps a virus).  My experiences with Vista (and now 7) have been that they're quite stable (although I didn't start using Vista until after SP2 came out).  Vista was definitely a lot slower than XP, but seemed comparable from a stability standpoint.  Windows 7 is much faster than Vista, particularly when it comes to boot-time (although a bit slower than XP), and its stability has been pretty solid as well.  For my desktop I still prefer Linux (mainly because Gnome supports virtual desktops out of the box - I know there are Windows add-ons that give similar functionality, but they often aren't very well integrated), but I've come to mostly use Windows 7 on my laptop (since I do less multitasking on it), and I use XP on my media center PC (mostly because Windows based software offers the best support for running HD video on old hardware).  It's just a matter of using the right tool for the right job.  Windows has its ups and downs, but so does every OS, and a lot of them (particularly the vulnerability to viruses) come more from its position as the dominant OS than any inherent flaws.  My guess is that if you had a similar setup on a Mac or Linux (with equally buggy macros, or whatever the problem is), you'd be crashing just as often.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

73

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Re: Incremental Change

joshv.

Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 03:40:14 PM EST

none

Christ, Windows 3.1 didn't crash that frequently, and I've never experienced anything like your crash frequency with XP/Vista over almost a dozen machines at home and with various employers.

Windows 7 takes about about 10GB on a fresh install.  If that's half your drive space, you've got some issues.  One of the design targets of Win7 was to decrease the number of running services, as there were a large number of them launched and just waiting for rare events.  These now launch only when needed.

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Re: Incremental Change

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 04:00:58 PM EST

none

Sometimes when people describe unbelievably crazy things happening to them it's because they happen to have been unlucky. Sometimes it means they're mentally deranged.

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Re: Incremental Change

Thalia.

Sat Jan 30, 2010 at 12:26:37 AM EST

none

Did you run the same set of concurrent apps I do?  Because I'm pretty sure the problem is a DLL in Visio is not particularly compatible with a DLL that runs in the background on Outlook, and triggers on some previews.  Not that I've managed to fix the problem.

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Re: Incremental Change

joshv.

Sat Jan 30, 2010 at 05:57:41 AM EST

none

Well, a visio dll crashing windows is not impossible, but it is unlikely.  I'd guess that it's a problem with your hardware.

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Re: Incremental Change

zyxwvutsr.

Sat Jan 30, 2010 at 07:41:46 AM EST

none

She's pretty sure it's a dll.

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Re: Incremental Change

Lou.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 09:55:44 PM EST

none

Fastest Selling OS in History

:::translation:::

Quick get that Vista crap off of our systems. (If only we didn't get rid of our xp disks!)

Why does reduced fat Swiss cheese have twice as many holes are regular Swiss cheese?

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Re: Incremental Change

joshv.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 02:01:14 PM EST

none

I was actually thinking about giving that as an example, but I didn't want to geek out on the topic.

The best way to deal with old software that needs revision is to section it up and create "fire breaks" between logical components of the program that are minimally dependent, or at least that can be made minimally dependent with some minimal effort.  And even within those sections you might piece things out into units of work that are reasonably independent.

Then you start working on the architecture section by section.  Constantly building and testing as you go to make sure that the new functions like the old.  You never ever ever want to spend more than a week or two without a working version of the software.  As a general rule you never want to work on more than one major component of the software at one time.  For example if you are refreshing the user interface, don't screw with the database backend.  If you are changing the accounting engine, don't change the database schema at the same time.

Intel practices something like this with their "tick-tock" processor designs.  Every tick is the old chip on the newer semiconductor process (usually a die shrink), and every tock is a redesigned chip on the same semiconductor process.  They never combine a new design with a new die shrink - presumable a lesson won through experience.

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Re: Incremental Change

Milo.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 02:09:53 PM EST

none

I would like working with you so much more than most of the monkeys I work with now ;)

Keep the faith...

-milo-

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or maybe he's extraordinarily naive?

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 09:41:58 AM EST

none

The bit about, 'show me a health care bill that will do X and Y and Z...Show me!' Extraordinarily disingenuous. You want a bill that stops rescissions? Then write a bill that bans or drastically reforms the practice. You want a bill that mandates insuring pre-existing conditions? Write one. You want a bill that makes premiums more affordable? Don't write the other two.

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Re: or maybe he's extraordinarily naive?

joshv.

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 02:09:01 PM EST

none

You must be one of "those who say" we can't increase coverage, increase benefits, and decrease premiums all at the same time.  Let me be clear - 'Yes We Can.'

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