Politics

Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

tjb.

Posted to Politics on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 02:07:56 PM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

Monthly inflation in Iran hits 70%.  That's 582% per year, assuming the inflation rate doesn't continue to accelerate (which it usually does in these circumstances).

It looks like the US/EU sanctions are working, but at this point a military strike may have been the more humane approach.

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1

Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

Gaius Petronius.

Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:12:52 PM EST

none

Bad stuff for the Iranians, but hardly unprecedented. According to this graph back in 1990 Brazil hit an inflation rate of over 6,000% !! At that point it becomes so mindnumbing as to be meaningless. They did put their house in order and the current rate is ~5%, while the US may hit a monthly rate of 2% by Valentine's Day.

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Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

tjb.

Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 04:25:24 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

The US is not going to have a monthly inflation rate of 2% at any point in the forseeable future - I would be willing to bet almost any sum of money (even inflation adjusted) on that.  2% monthly translates to 26% annually - even the shadowstat conspiracy theorists don't think inflation is that high.

The 6000% annual inflation that Brazil saw was about 106% per month, a point that Iran is rapidly approaching.  

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Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

AngryWhiteMan.

Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:42:37 PM EST

none

Totally agree. Explosive inflation under current conditions, a cornerstone of supply-side, is utter bullshit.

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Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

tomc.

Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 10:40:19 AM EST

5.00 (informative, pert)

It's difficult to compare Brazil and Iran, because Iran doesn't have bumbum contests.

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Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

indecentspeech.

Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 11:14:04 AM EST

5.00 (astute, astute)

Easily one of the most informative and interesting links posted on this site.

3

Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

pO157.

Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:20:07 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

There is really no need for a military strike on Iran. However, the Israeli side keeps demanding that somebody do something about Iran somehow. I'm sorry, but I'm tired of people subcontracting out their problems on us. The larger discussion should be as to why we're still allies with and supply arms and money to a needlessly fractious regional power.

America! I could teach you, but I'd have to charge.

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Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

indecentspeech.

Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:35:25 PM EST

5.00 (solved, agreed)

I agree, fuck the Israelis. Let them solve their own problems.

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Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

thefadd.

Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:25:59 PM EST

none

oh come on there's plenty of issues with Israel and the American relationship but the Israelis play our pit bull when it serves us

I HAD HAD SEX WITH HUNTER S THOMPSON. HE CAME IN MY MOUTH AND I SWALLOWED IT. I SHOULD HAVE HAD HIS BABY. WE WOULD BE BALLIN' LIKE KOBE'S SON!!

6

Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

Shy Elf.

Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 10:24:50 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

Eyeballing the chart, I get 55% monthly.  I don't think they give an exact monthly figure.  That's still ((1.55^12)-1)*100 = 20,000% annually.

It's still not obvious to me they definitely have hyperinflation.  Clearly, this level of price increases if continued constitutes hyperinflation, and probably it  will continue, but given only the presented data it could also reasonably be a one-time readjustment to the sanctions, if they're not reflected in prices of domestic products.  Equally well the trade shock could be reflected in domestic prices with a level of inflation which decreases with time instead of increasing.

I think we need to be more clear about what we mean by "working".  Clearly the Iranian economy is doing very poorly, but it wasn't doing well before.  Now the Iranian government can blame their already poor economic performance on enemy action.  If anything, it leaves them more entrenched than without the sanctions.  Like North Korea, there's really no reason to believe that poor general economic performance should lead to the abandonment of the Iranian nuclear program, which was our goal in the first place.

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Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

novy.

Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 03:20:09 PM EST

5.00

In North Korea, public unrest that could lead to regime change was next to impossible because North Korea's public was so cowed. In Iran, public unrest that could lead to regime change might actually happen, and almost did after Iran's last presidential election. Regime change would probably be good enough for America, and probably good enough even for Israel, even if such new regime continued its nuclear research. (It should be remembered that Iran under Shah Reza Pahlavi was one of Israel's few allies.)

9

Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

novy.

Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:42:36 PM EST

none

Even conservatives (in America, at least) seem to be realising that invading Iran and setting off some general regional war doesn't really make any sense. Why corner Iranians into supporting their economically incompetent government with blood (as they did when Iran was fighting Iraq) when you can wait for young Iranians sick to death of austerity and social constipation to catch Arab Spring Syndrome and finish what they started when Ahmadinehad stole his second presidential term with Khamenei's blessing?  

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Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

Shy Elf.

Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 01:53:12 AM EST

none

I'm all for knocking out their enrichment facilities, should we be able to figure out where they are, but most of the discussion I've seen has been of an Iraq-like occupation.

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Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

novy.

Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 01:23:27 PM EST

none

Israel often has better intelligence than America, yet most intelligence sources think that even Israel wouldn't be able to do much more than set back Iran's nuclear efforts, not end them by any means. If you could "figure out where they are", indeed.

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Re: Or we could just let Iran bomb itself

thefadd.

Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 11:55:30 PM EST

none

you never need to do any more than "set them back." there's no such thjng as "elimination."

I HAD HAD SEX WITH HUNTER S THOMPSON. HE CAME IN MY MOUTH AND I SWALLOWED IT. I SHOULD HAVE HAD HIS BABY. WE WOULD BE BALLIN' LIKE KOBE'S SON!!

12

Bomb Iran

novy.

Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 11:40:32 PM EST

5.00 (okay)

Britain and France
Didn't want to dance
But I hate Khamenei
So I thought I'd take a chance and
Bomb Iran
Bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran
Bomb Iran
Bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran
We've got 'em rockin and a'rolling
Rockin' and a'reelin'
Bomb Iran
Bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran

Love shock 'n awe
Never saw a flaw
Israel was sore
So I thought I'd start a war and
Bomb Iran
Bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran
Bomb Iran
Bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran
We've got 'em rockin and a'rolling
Rockin' and a'reelin'
Bomb Iran
Bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran

Never had a clue
Precisely what to do
But I've wished we could do this
Since 1982
Bomb Iran
Bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran
Bomb Iran
Bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran
We've got 'em rockin and a'rolling
Rockin' and a'reelin'
Bomb Iran
Bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran

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