Politics

Assad Day in Damascus

Gaius Petronius.

Posted to Politics on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:35:28 AM EST (promoted from Diaries by port1080). RSS.

After some months of fighting against the Assad regime in Syria to questionable effect, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) opposition have suddenly upped the ante. A suicide bomber detonated himself during a meeting in the Syrian Security Forces HQ, killing the Minister of Defense, as well as his chief advisor who happened to be President Assad's brother-in-law, and the regime's top crises manager.

 A number of other senior officials were severely injured. There were also reports of gunfire on the presidential palace complex , as well as fights near the headquarters of the ruling B'aath party.

So, is this the beginning of the end for the Chinless One, or FSA's answer to the Tet Offensive?

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1

Should Have Happened To His Dad

novy.

Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 03:24:49 PM EST

none

I don't think Assad has more than another year of flailing about before his regime goes kaput, even with Russia as cheerleader and arms supplier.

Too bad about Bashir, though. Great eye doctor, dubious dictator.

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Re: Should Have Happened To His Dad

tjb.

Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 07:06:39 PM EST

none

The Russians may want to start looking for another Mediterranean port because I doubt that whoever takes over when the Assad regime is gone is going to be terribly cozy with their former enemy/oppressor's best friend.

Greece could certainly use the cash and may have a hard-left government soon... sounds win/win to me, other than the pesky NATO thing.

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Re: Should Have Happened To His Dad

novy.

Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 08:30:32 PM EST

none

If Greece went "hard-left", as it failed to do by 2 or 3 points last time out, I doubt that they would care any more about NATO than they would care about their EU "allies". "Win/win" indeed.

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Re: Should Have Happened To His Dad

Gaius Petronius.

Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 08:39:01 AM EST

none

I also wonder what the Russkis could offer the Greeks in exchange for port access. Perhaps cheap oil, but probably not hard cash. The problem for the Greeks would be that they'd be in the same situation as Cuba when the Wall fell, left in the lurch.

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Re: Should Have Happened To His Dad

novy.

Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 09:38:28 AM EST

none

Considering Russia provides much of western Europe's energy (mostly natural gas from Gazprom, if I remember correctly), it could probably subsidise gas shipments to Greece.

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Too bad

mycena.

Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 11:55:43 AM EST

none

Too bad also for the secular reformers within the Syrian government and state, and for all the western tourists and businessmen which could travel around Syria hassle free in the past few years.

Too bad for the general populace in Syria, who -- like most sane people -- simply want to fall in love, build a home and do interesting work. Too bad that the best many of them can hope for is to spend all their savings to have the most promising son, or daughter, to be sent overseas for a proper education, or job, in the couple of next decades.

Too bad for the many Alawites, Druses and Muslims who rather like to read and study and have a nice meal, than taking the sensible preparation to gather weaponry and ammunition, and cosy up to -- or slit the throat of -- the local criminals.

Too bad for all of us, for this will reverberate for many decades to come, and will suppress us all.

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Re: Too bad

novy.

Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 02:01:41 PM EST

none

I was, of course, joking about Bashir, for whom I feel little sympathy, let alone empathy.

But what should have happened instead? Should secular reformers have been satisfied with Bashir's "reforms"? (And do you personally know any Western tourists or businesspeople who have taken advantage of travel to Syria prior to this revolution, or who thought they could do business with Syria?) Should Western countries have intervened militarily to throw Bashir out, risking conflict with Russia or immediate civil war in Syria? Should Alawites and Druses have made their peace with revolutionaries immediately so as to minimise risks that any new regime would be antagonistic to their communities? What did you advocate when things were hotting up and what do you advocate now?

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Reform

mycena.

Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 03:06:15 PM EST

none

Should secular reformers have been satisfied with Bashir's "reforms"?

Not necessarily, as I don't know what exactly those reforms were, nor how important to ordinary Syrians either. (As to personal contacts who travelled to Syria: sorry, but no anecdotes here (wasn't Damascus the hot new place to learn Arab only a few years ago?). But I can point you to some data: Foreign Investment in Syria Grows (Forbes Mag, 2009), Syria To Open Its Economy (WaPo, 2009), Syria Aims To Attract $55 Billion In Foreign Investment over Five Years (Bloomberg, 2010), and finally, Syria Crackdown Stamps on Economic Dream (Reuters, 2011).)

To those who claim that "democracy" should be pushed hard, if necessary with military means, the old advice should be sufficient: chuck away the Rambo vids (or anything else Hollywoodian from that period for that matter), and ponder the history of the Peloponnesian War first. (And while you're in the mood, read through Caroline Finkel's Osman's Dream to help you appreciate what kind of powder keg is going to be ignited if Russia and Europe can't stop this madness.

Finally, to end with a question mark too: should we advocate to the Chinese people, that they should come out and protest too and, for good measure, round-off the whole action with a couple of boatloads of M-16s and grenades to a friendly neighbor, purely for training purposes ofcourse?

Remember, the enemy of my enemy cannot be anyone else but my very, very, best friend.

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Re: Reform

novy.

Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 03:39:07 PM EST

none

You might be one of four or five people on this site that I would have counted on to substantively address my questions. I'll answer them for myself, just for practice, and then come back to my original purpose in posing them to you.

I don't think Bashir's opponents could have accepted his reforms, because they were merely window-dressing for continued dictatorship. One could argue that they should have engaged exclusively in non-violent resistance, but given reactions from countries like Russia and China to Syria's revolution, such resistance might well have been met by wholesale slaughter of innocents, something Bashir's dad knew all about.

Syria's efforts to reform its economy were tentative at best, and it would have taken someone with personal ties to Syria or other Eastern Mediterranean lands to have been impressed by opportunities to make money in Bashir's "new Syria". [Also, please note that your 2009 article suggests that Syria WILL open its economy at some future point, while your 2011 article suggests that that ostensible opening had already failed. How long was Syria's economy "open"? One year? Months? Weeks?]

I certainly oppose military intervention in Syria, just as I opposed it in Libya, and I have opposed it from day one. I feel for oppressed Syrians, and I cheer their victories over their oppressors, but I don't endorse Western military intervention. I recognise that without such intervention, tens of thousands more people may die, but similar numbers might die anyway if such intervention went forward. Most Arabs don't want Western Christians messing with their affairs, and I don't blame them.

I also oppose any sort of intervention in China or Russia. They can work out their own fate. I like western-style democracy better than other forms of government currently available on this planet, but imposing democracy on any country strikes me as inherently self-contradictory.

Now, back to my original purpose. It sounded like you were responding to what you thought I meant rather than what I was actually trying to say. I think you figure I was gloating over Syria's travails, as perhaps many Westerners have been, and you wanted to impress upon me that anarchy and civil war in Syria could come back to bite Westerners as well. Yeah, I know that. No, I don't welcome that.

But what should have happened there? Could anything useful have been done, when it all started or now? Intervention would have sucked. Non-intervention has sucked. UN resolutions haven't saved any lives. Russia won't be able to save Assad's regime without risking another Afghanistan of its own. And Syria's streets gush blood every day.

If anyone around here might have had any interesting or innovative suggestions on these points, it could have been you. That was why I asked, not to try to trip you up with rhetorical questions. And so I ask again, was there anything that could have been done, then or now, to move Syria toward genuine peace and internal harmony? We can all see what doesn't work, now perhaps it may finally be time to think about what might work.

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Re: Reform

mycena.

Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 06:16:16 PM EST

none

Alright then, but let's move the goalposts even a bit further. Instead of asking what should be done now [in Syria], let's ask the question -- what should be done here, in the western world, now.

The answer, to my mind, should start from a few realisations. I'll start with this post with the foremost realisation, to my mind. This realisation is that, when it comes to the outside world, apparently nobody in the media is (a) very much interested in things that don't go ka-boom or (b) actively works to prevent reporting about the side-effects and origins of those very same ka-boom thingies.

The second, closer-to-home, realisation is that said media apparently also aren't very much interested in the true lives of ordinary beings who aren't in the habit of tits dropping out of designer gownies. Instead it's always the same faces appearing on talkshows, or experts with or without degree blattering on and on about what is considered to be the issue du jour: wouldn't simple brain-washing feel like a relief?

The more I walk around among the news stands of the world, the more I get the impression that the concerted aim is to make us all lose a whole bunch of neurons a day, instead of growing a couple.

So, that's the first realisation: we don't have a press that's worth more than the paper their articles are printed on, unless you're prepared to pay quite handsomely, and even then: how come the average newspaper/journal, which is supposed to be about humanity and the various shits and marvels it creates, can be such a lifeless thing to read?

That should change, if we want to prevent any future Iraq's and Syria's: slavery absconded from society under pressure from press and thinkers; and so too, should a healthy foreign policy start with proper reporting and story telling: a wide-ranging education.

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Re: Reform

novy.

Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 10:47:41 PM EST

none

It would be tempting to see your answer as elaborate acknowledgment that there may be nothing good left to do, either by westerners or perhaps even by Syrians.

Let's face it, North American "news" generally has become another entertainment medium, and tragedy/ death draws viewers (or readers) and thus ad money. If someone kills 12 people in Denver, everything (including politics) stops and all eyes become glued to media outlets. (Ka-ching.) Similarly, if someone kills countless thousands of people in Syria (yes, for North American TV purposes, 12 local deaths = 10,000 foreign deaths), viewers might actually start to care. "Should we go save them?" they might start to ask themselves. (Ka-ching.) They have no idea what led to those thousands of deaths, they know next to nothing about Arab culture, and they probably couldn't locate Syria on their world map, but they feel impelled to do something for those sorry people on their  screens, and they watch future reports with greater interest. (Ka-ching.)

No conspiracies have ever been involved in this process of turning world news into fodder for entertainment programming. Sure, Fox and MSNBC openly slant news for political purposes, but they (mostly) do that for entertainment purposes also.

In countries proclaiming that political power grows from adherence to popular will, media may have some inherent responsibility to help educate their public on certain issues. Hence, CBC or BBC or NPR. But most Americans will continue to prefer their news mixed with entertainment or even jollity (e.g., "The Daily Show"), will continue to avoid educating themselves about most key political and foreign policy issues, and will thus continue to have their political system hijacked by plutocrats (and sometimes even by affected foreign nations directly).

But let's move on and consider what responsibility America bears for what has already happened in Syria or what may end up happening there. When Syria's troubles began, it looked like just another "Arab Spring" uprising against entrenched dictatorship. Was America responsible for instigating Arab Spring protests that destroyed regimes across North Africa (some to America's benefit, some to its apparent detriment)? I guess it could be claimed that Obama's speech set things in motion, but that sure credits him with immense personal power and influence vis-a-vis Arabs, which influence seems unlikely. Now, I figure both Bashir and Putin think Americans or Europeans or somebody put Syrians up to all this, but I rather doubt it. For Syria's majority, Bashir's regime sucked for as long as anyone could remember, and when they thought they could overthrow him (because other dictators across their regime were getting their just desserts) they took their shot. Things haven't worked out as well as they might have liked? Not really America's fault, eh?  

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Re: Reform

thefadd.

Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 06:21:41 PM EST

none

How old must you be? Said media is irrelevant.

I HAD HAD SEX WITH HUNTER S THOMPSON. HE CAME IN MY MOUTH AND I SWALLOWED IT. I SHOULD HAVE HAD HIS BABY. WE WOULD BE BALLIN' LIKE KOBE'S SON!!

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Re: Too bad

Gaius Petronius.

Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 02:53:09 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

I think everybody hopes for the best in this part of the world, but doesn't expect much.  Pretty much every Middle Eastern potentate from Quadaffi through Mubarak to Assad have spent the last several decades crushing any pluralistic movements within their states, lest they turn into a real opposition. The results are that when the inevitable collapse comes, there is no collection of independent civil society movements to fill in the vacuum.  I have seen some criticize Nato's support of the anti-Quadaffi forces as leading to the current tribal clashes. However, if Moammar (or Saddam, for that matter) had dropped dead of a heart attack the same thing would have happened; with every ethnic or sectarian element at each other's throats. For example, if instead of wasting 50 years fighting the Muslim Brotherhood Mubarak had let them get elected to run the Cairo city council, the problems of handling stuff like garbage collection might have taken the bloom off of that particular rose.

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