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Canadian homeowners partying like its 2006

tjb.

Posted to Business on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 09:51:18 AM EST (promoted from Diaries by port1080). RSS.

Canadians can be cute with the way they eventually follow the same trends as their neighbors to the south, trying to be just as cool as the Americans were 5 years ago, but seriously people, have we learned nothing?  While housing prices up across most of Canada's larget cities, Vancouver, with its balmy 9 months of freezing rain every year keeping away the polar bears and making igloos impractical,  has seen the greatest increase in million dollar crackhouses.

But fear not, Canada - you do not have to go down this trail alone: Norway will help you demonstrate that house prices always go up.

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Re: Canadian homeowners partying like its 2006

tjb.

Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 01:58:10 PM EST

none

Oh, and if I understand correctly, the vast majority of mortgages in Canada are what would be considered ARMs and balloon-ARMs in the US and fixed rate mortgages are non-existent.   Oh, and that they are all full-recourse - no walking away and giving the house to the bank, the bank can go after you for contractually agreed payments AND take the house.

In that context, this seems incredibly dangerous...

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Re: Canadian homeowners partying like its 2006

thefadd.

Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 03:43:28 PM EST

none

How, they really do have a lot less freedom there. How do people even pay for these houses giving 40% of their income to the Feds? What are property taxes like? They still must have bankruptcy protection, no?

I HAD HAD SEX WITH HUNTER S THOMPSON. HE CAME IN MY MOUTH AND I SWALLOWED IT. I SHOULD HAVE HAD HIS BABY. WE WOULD BE BALLIN' LIKE KOBE'S SON!!

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Re: Canadian homeowners partying like its 2006

novy.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:05:02 PM EST

4.00 (enslaved)

Income inequality has long been much less extreme in Canada than in America. Ordinary people (secretaries, bus drivers, etc.) make much more money in Canada than they do in America. Even after they pay their taxes to federal and provincial governments, they live better than comparably placed Americans. That doesn't even count things like free health care or longer vacations or more holidays at work or all sorts of other government-provided benefits or lower crime rates or better public transportation or subsidised art and culture.

Maybe really rich Americans have more freedom, or more accurately more power over their fellow citizens and other people all around this planet, than really rich Canadians. But working class Canadians have it better than working class Americans. Call that "less freedom" if you must.

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Re: Canadian homeowners partying like its 2006

Otto Maddox.

Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 05:28:56 PM EST

none

Income inequality has long been much less extreme in Canada than in America.

And getting worse

But of course every wingnut knows wages can't be a zero sum game. I mean, that would imply that the money must be going somewhere else...

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends on his not understanding it" ~Sinclair

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Re: Canadian homeowners partying like its 2006

novy.

Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 12:32:02 PM EST

none

I trust you mean that income inequality has been getting worse in America, rather than Canada. That would certainly be true.

3

Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackhouses

novy.

Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 11:16:07 PM EST

5.00 (informative, interesting)

Ah, so.

All right, some of you Americans won't get that. Let's try again.

Really rich people in places like Hongkong worry that China's government could concoct another Great Leap Forward someday and so they park their families in enormous houses in advanced countries that will sell them citizenship, like Canada. If they weren't spending their newfound wealth on giant houses in British Columbia, they would be buying $75,000 watches or some other damned thing.

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

tjb.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 08:25:33 AM EST

none

So, really rich Chinese people are buying $1.5M 800 sq. ft. crackshacks in Vancouver? Right.

Go take a look at crackshackormansion.com and tell me there is a rational basis behind those prices.

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

improper.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 09:30:44 AM EST

none

Vancouver also is a big drug trafficking place no? I wonder if the prices for these homes have anything to do with that?

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

novy.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 11:47:09 AM EST

none

"Big drug trafficking place"? You mean all that pot? If that was what was propping up Vancouver home prices, I would expect similar run-ups in home prices in northern California and southern Oregon.

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

improper.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 11:58:20 AM EST

none

I don't think it's just pot. I remember hearing stories about the Indian community (mostly Punjabis) there and how half the trucking industry was just about transporting drugs - mostly cocaine - to the US. Also pot is pretty much legal in Vancouver no? (I mean rarely are people prosecuted for use).

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

novy.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:20:03 PM EST

none

Sort of "legal", maybe comparable to it being called "legal" in Alaska given its Supreme Court's decisions on privacy rights. Treaties prevent Canadian provincial governments (and countries like Costa Rica that have made noises about outright legalisation) from actually "legalising" most currently proscribed intoxicants. But I never worried much about criminal prosecution even when it was taken more seriously, and possible fines were never any real deterrent anyway. (I've lost more money on deals gone bad than I've ever paid to courts or lawyers on account of my behaviour.)

But as for huge cocaine trafficking into America, you should probably worry more about your southern BC (Baja California) than your northern BC. It doesn't make much economic sense to transport supplies thousands of kilometres more than necessary to get them to market.

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

improper.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:38:22 PM EST

none

I had it backwards. You're right the pot goes South and coke and guns go North.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8505061.stm

Maybe then it's Vancouver supplying the rest of Canada.

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

novy.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 11:44:38 AM EST

none

When really rich Chinese pay big money for "crackshacks", they end up tearing them down and replacing them with huge houses that go right up to their property lines.

As for "rational basis", it comes down, as always, to supply and demand. Vancouver doesn't have much room to expand, but it has become one of Canada's most popular cities. And Canada has based its economy, like Australia, on providing resources to other countries, so it has been doing much better than America for some time now.

Americans may be jealous, but things may not work out in Canada just as they worked out in America.

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

improper.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:02:11 PM EST

none

So you're basically saying that land is worth more than the house on it. And that's reasonable, but some of the examples from TJB's link are way out of wack.

Questioning why shit real estate is incredibly high is not jealousy - it's curiosity, caution, and skepticism.  

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

novy.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:27:48 PM EST

none

In all candour, I should acknowledge that there appears to be some irrationality in Vancouver's, and Canada's, real estate markets. I wasn't suggesting, or at least shouldn't have been suggesting, that tjb didn't have any points to make here, or that his questions and his alarms could be safely ignored.

I just don't think Canadian real estate will crash soon, any more than Australian real estate has crashed since America's financial crisis began in 2007. And I don't consider crashes in real estate inevitable, even if corrections must take place from time to time.  

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

tjb.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 08:30:33 AM EST

5.00 (similar)

In other words: "it's different this time!"

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

novy.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:31:50 PM EST

none

Canada's situation was never that much like America's situation to begin with. As you pointed out yourself, most Canadian mortgages weren't much like America's "lie-to-us" mortgages.

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

tjb.

Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 02:01:36 PM EST

5.00 (informative)

most Canadian mortgages weren't much like America's "lie-to-us" mortgages.

ORLY?

"So not only does Canada offer no-money-down deals, but also liar loans, interest-only mortgages, payment-skipping and 125% financing."

The fact that these are all ARMs is particularly scary - if interest rates go up, foreclosures will skyrocket.  The full-recourse aspect of Canadian mortgage law might help the banks to some degree, but will absolutely put the screws to people who are stuck with a mortgage they cannot afford.

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

Shy Elf.

Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 11:28:15 AM EST

5.00 (informative)

Interest rates don't even have to go up.  ARMs are generally written so that rates skyrocket at the end of term, even when the reference interest rate is zero, and pretty much all of them are referenced to LIEBOR, which if it returns to the unmanipulated rate will be much higher, because it includes bank default risk.  You didn't even remark on the bubble payment loans.  The upshot is, that even for those borrowers who can afford to pay their current loans, even if rates don't rise, a large fraction of them will be forced to default because their loans terms end and they are no longer considered creditworthy due to maximum term reduction, valuation reduction eating into net capital, and eventually, down payment increases.

Unlike Spain in particular, Canada at least has relatively liberal personal bankruptcy laws.

While I agree with you that Canada in a real estate bubble, I don't think it is in more of a bubble than a lot of other countries, notably the UK, Australia, and, especially, China.  Even in countries which have had their real estate bubbles pop, there is a lot of housing book pricing manipulation, especially in the US and Spain.

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

thefadd.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 11:00:06 AM EST

none

Half of Hancock Park in LA and most of Valencia is huge multi-million dollar homes that lay empty ten months out of the year because their owned by filthy rich asian families doing that exact thing. It doesn't overfuel the real estate market any more than other demand factors.

I HAD HAD SEX WITH HUNTER S THOMPSON. HE CAME IN MY MOUTH AND I SWALLOWED IT. I SHOULD HAVE HAD HIS BABY. WE WOULD BE BALLIN' LIKE KOBE'S SON!!

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

novy.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 11:53:39 AM EST

none

True, but it makes it much easier to sell multi-million dollar homes there.

Vancouver doesn't just attract migration from frightened Asians, though. If you wanted to move west from Ontario and your choice was between Calgary, Edmonton, or Vancouver, houses in Vancouver would look pretty good. Lots of people have already made that decision, and lots more will continue to make it.

Consider Vancouver's similarities with North Dakota (well, aside from that North Dakota looks really flat and ugly) and it might become clearer why housing prices haven't collapsed.  

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

improper.

Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:04:13 PM EST

none

If Israeli Jews did a similar thing in Long Island, South Jersey, and Florida, nobody would question it.

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

thefadd.

Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 05:37:58 PM EST

none

or the other half of Hancock Park ;-)

I HAD HAD SEX WITH HUNTER S THOMPSON. HE CAME IN MY MOUTH AND I SWALLOWED IT. I SHOULD HAVE HAD HIS BABY. WE WOULD BE BALLIN' LIKE KOBE'S SON!!

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

Gaius Petronius.

Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:26:11 PM EST

5.00 (brilliant)

The US also has a special visa program for people willing to invest in the US. Apparently ICE expects to issue about 6,000 such visas this year. Considering that we get more than a million legal immigrants a year here anyway, the program is pretty small potatoes. I have heard of promoters in Hong Kong and Taiwan who will sell you a package of a donut shop franchise and a flat fee immigration lawyer upon arrival.

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Re: Why Vancouver Has "Million-Dollar Crackho

novy.

Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 08:13:17 PM EST

none

America may have its special visa program, but Canada sells citizenship.

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In related news

joshv.

Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 08:09:15 AM EST

none

For the First Time, Canadians Now Richer Than Americans: http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/07/18/for-the-first-time-canadians-now-richer-than-american s

As the middle classes carry most of their net worth in their home equity, this is mostly a measure of average home value.  The US is post bubble, Canada pre-bubble.  As other's have pointed out, the fact that Canadian mortgages are non-recourse and typically require a much higher down payment than was common in the bubble years of the US, will make the crash in Canada very, very painful.

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