Politics

argumentum ad verecundiam economicus

wrestler.

Posted to Politics on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 11:12:08 PM EST (promoted by Acefantastik). RSS.

About 400 prominent economists from industry and academia endorsed Romney's economic revival and jobs plan.

Apparently economists are crappy at web desgin. But given the JOBS! JOBS! JOBS! context of this election, maybe their opinion on presidents has some value. A whole bunch of them, at least, including economic Nobelists Becker, Lucas, Mundell, Prescott and Scholes,  "enthusiastically endorse Governor Mitt Romney's economic plan".

Getting economists who agree to agree is notoriously difficult, but hundreds signed on to the proposition that Romney's plan would increase living standards, contain the debt, improve the business operating environment, improve health care and promote energy.

Obama, they claim, has wasted the stimulus, failed to lead on debt and entitlements, while successfully centralizing power better left to the market.

A search for "economists for Obama" yields little beyond a Obama-McCain era blog with a chart claiming that economists pick Obama over McCain 66% to 28%. Surely the present Obama campaign could compile an impressive list as well, but perhaps we won't see it unless it becomes as impressive.

Thinking for oneself is so tiresome. Using Authority to pick our next Authority almost sounds reasonable. And what better authority than an economist when the economy underlies so much of our collective misery? And how better to derive economic opinion than a head count of economists?

Or would a Ouija board be better? Just don't make me think.

Tags: (all tags)

This story: 46 comments (0 from subqueue)
Post a Comment
1

Re: argumentum ad verecundiam economicus

Anywhere.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 07:41:47 AM EST

none

How have they been able to come to such a conclusion barring actual details about Romney's plan?  Romney wasn't very happy about the Tax Policy Center making assumptions to fill in the gaps; I assume he's happier about the gap-filling here.

3

^ 1

Re: argumentum ad verecundiam economicus

wrestler.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 09:21:57 AM EST

5.00 (helpful)

17

^ 3

Re: argumentum ad verecundiam economicus

novy.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 11:52:00 PM EST

5.00 (surgical)

Taxes: Ordinary people pay more of their income than multi-millionaires, and if deficits go up, ordinary people will pay whatever extra taxes Republicans deem to be needed.

Regulation: Let banks do whatever they want, and if they screw that proverbial pooch again, too bad. Let giant corporations do whatever they want, even as corporate welfare in America exceeds welfare payments to individuals, and if they do something wrong, protect them from lawsuits.

Trade: Open markets with countries you already have open markets with.

Energy: Bring back coal. Even London's Economist thinks Romney's energy plan blows. Oh, and global warming presents no real problems, and no one needs to do anything about it.

Labour: Bust more unions. America has gotten better and better off since labour unions were common in 1955. Well, wealthy Americans have gotten better and better off anyway.

Human Capital: Just don't call it "No Child Left Behind."

Spending: Cut it drastically, and import Britain's double-dip recession. Eventually, everything will work out, and wealth will "trickle down".

Great plan. Glad I live in Canada.

2

Re: argumentum ad verecundiam economicus

Otto Maddox.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 08:21:08 AM EST

5.00 (astute, astute)

Deregulate - Check!

Continue to cut revenues - Check!

Increase debt - -Check!

Wonderful. Why wouldn't you recreate the conditions that brought the world's economy to its knees?

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends on his not understanding it" ~Sinclair

4

Re: argumentum ad verecundiam economicus

port1080.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 09:28:16 AM EST

5.00 (hopeful, funny)

Hope and Change, Republican style...

Allons-y!

5

Jerbs

cloudofdust.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 09:32:46 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

The Republicans swept into statehouses across the country in 2010 on JOBS!JOBS!JOBS! But what have they actually done about it?

From what I've seen they've been busy expanding the size and power of government in order to ban abortion without violating Roe v. Wade. They've created expensive and intrusive new bureaucracy which burdens those who seek government services without reducing the demand for those services. And union busting.

I know a lot of people are still fooled by the myth that Republican's shit economic rainbows but where's the evidence that Republicans can JOBS!JOBS!JOBS!?

6

^ 5

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 10:24:53 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

Union busting is good for the economy and for job growth.

9

^ 6

Re: Jerbs

cloudofdust.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 12:46:38 PM EST

none

Prove it.

10

^ 9

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 01:28:24 PM EST

none

There is ample literature:

The clear pattern that emerges from the research literature, primarily for the U.S. but also elsewhere, is that unions do not on average increase productivity and that collective bargaining is associated with lower profitability, decreased investment in physical capital and research and development (R&D), and lower rates of employment and sales growth.

...and...

In the five years following the troughs, we assess whether variations across states in union membership and right-to-work laws affect the rate of job growth. We find evidence that links union influence to slower job growth during an economic recovery, a finding consistent with previous studies reporting that unions negatively affect average employment and employment growth.
There really isn't any serious debate: unions are great for those lucky enough to be in them, but bad for everyone else.

12

^ 10

Re: Jerbs

cloudofdust.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 01:41:33 PM EST

none

What does any of that have to do with what's happened since 2010?

13

^ 12

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 01:58:45 PM EST

none

Maybe you hadn't heard: unemployment is quite high.

14

^ 13

Re: Jerbs

cloudofdust.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 02:08:55 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

I'll ask again. How has the union busting that's occurred since 2010 delivered on the Republican promise of JOBS! JOBS! JOBS!?

23

^ 14

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:47:11 AM EST

none

I am not sure why you are having such a hard time understanding that the existence of something that has a negative impact on jobs has a negative impact on jobs.

15

^ 10

Re: Jerbs

cloudofdust.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 03:59:58 PM EST

5.00 (helpful)

There really isn't any serious debate: unions are great for those lucky enough to be in them, but bad for everyone else.

The radical lefties over at the World Bank disagree.

Based on more than a thousand studies of the effects of labour unions and collective bargaining on the performance of national economies, the Bank report found that workers who belong to trade unions earn higher wages, work fewer hours, receive more training, and have longer job tenure on average than their non-unionized counterparts.

High rates of unionization also lead to lower inequality of earnings, especially for women and minority groups, says the report, entitled `Unions and Collective Bargaining: Economic Effects in a Global Environment.'

But unionization is not just good for individual workers - the study also found that countries fare better economically if large numbers of workers belong to trade unions.

More specifically, the study shows that high unionization rates are associated with lower unemployment and inflation, higher productivity, and speedier adjustments to economic shocks.

24

^ 15

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:48:47 AM EST

none

You're not citing the World Bank, you're citing a Canadian labor union's mischaracterization of a World Bank paper. The actual paper had conclusions such as,

  • "Unions reduce employment growth."
  • "Unions reduce the investment rate of physical capital."
  • "Unions reduce spendingn on R&D."
  • "...the available evidence from Canada, Jamaica, Malaysia, the United Kingdom, and the United States suggests that employment grows more slowly in unionized firms than in nonunionized ones. Studies from Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States typically find a growth differential in the range of 3 to 5 percentage points per year in favor of nonunionized firms."

28

^ 24

Re: Jerbs

cloudofdust.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:31:55 AM EST

none

It's funny how you cherry pick the points that focus on what's good or bad for companies and ignore that points about what's good or bad for workers.

29

^ 28

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:35:27 AM EST

none

How is higher unemployment good for workers?

30

^ 29

Re: Jerbs

cloudofdust.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:40:21 AM EST

none

None of the four points you cite imply high unemployment.

31

^ 30

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:41:03 AM EST

none

How is higher unemployment good for workers?

32

^ 31

Re: Jerbs

cloudofdust.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:54:13 AM EST

none

None of the four points you cite imply high unemployment.

33

^ 32

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:55:00 AM EST

none

Unemployment is high. (Are you being deliberately obtuse?)

34

^ 33

Re: Jerbs

cloudofdust.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:18:29 AM EST

none

Are you suggesting that the current high unemployment is the result of unionization? Because that would be hilarious.

35

^ 34

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:37:17 AM EST

none

I am suggesting that union busting is good for job growth.

36

^ 35

Re: Jerbs

cloudofdust.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:59:35 AM EST

none

You just can't prove it.

37

^ 36

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:03:57 AM EST

none

You have refused to accept proof. See comments #10 and #24.

19

^ 10

Re: Jerbs

novy.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 11:57:05 PM EST

none

You could as easily say that "ample literature" exists that Obama was born in Kenya. Just quote FoxNews and right-wing nuts and you can prove almost anything.

21

^ 10

Re: Jerbs

novy.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 12:02:59 AM EST

none

"There really isn't any serious debate: unions are great for those lucky enough to be in them, but bad for everyone else."

Which explains why ordinary people were better off when most workers were unionised, and why ordinary people get so easily screwed today when only 1/6 of workers belong to unions. When that number reaches 0%, as in 1875, maybe we can bring back sweat shops, child labour, and slavery. If THAT doesn't increase corporate profits and create JOBS! JOBS! JOBS! then I don't know what will.

25

^ 21

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:50:08 AM EST

none

...ordinary people were better off when most workers were unionised [sic]
By what measure?

18

^ 6

Re: Jerbs

novy.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 11:55:41 PM EST

none

Which explains why average Americans have seen their standard of living stagnate ever since union membership dropped from majority to 15%. Which also explains why rich people get richer, poor people get poorer, ranks of people in poverty continue to rise, and middle class Americans wonder how long they can remain middle class.

Your second gilded age has screwed 10 people for every one it has helped. That works for you, but it doesn't work for most ordinary people who have been sold your bill of goods.

26

^ 18

Re: Jerbs

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:51:07 AM EST

none

...average Americans have seen their standard of living stagnate...
By what definition of "average" has the standard of living stagnated?

27

^ 18

Re: Jerbs

tjb.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:23:01 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

Union membership in the US was never higher than 35%, and has been dropping since 1953 as the large unions have sucked their companies dry.  Extracting rents works well in cartelized economies, not so much in competitive ones.

38

^ 5

Re: Ouch

Jackkeefe.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 03:30:32 PM EST

none

Unemployment in states with Republican governors is more than a percentage point lower than states with Democratic governors.  Getting hard to come up with excuses for Obama these days isn't it?

39

^ 38

Re: Ouch

indecentspeech.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:03:28 PM EST

none

The same Republican governors that accepted stimulus money?

40

^ 39

Re: Ouch

Jackkeefe.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:32:56 PM EST

5.00 (funny)

That explains it. The Republicans accepted the stimulus money and the Democrats didn't.

41

^ 38

Re: Ouch

port1080.

Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 09:36:00 AM EST

none

Unemployment's only 5% in Mexico.  Funny, that.  Maybe unemployment and living standards don't neatly correlate with each other?

Allons-y!

42

^ 41

Re: Ouch

Jackkeefe.

Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM EST

none

Okay. But how does that realate to the argument that Republicans at the state level are to blame for the persistently  high unemployment rates under this President?  

45

^ 38

Re: Ouch

Otto Maddox.

Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 09:15:31 PM EST

none

BEHOLD. Republican Convention keynote speaker, presumptive President, Emperor for life, Eight star Conservative General, Chris Critstie:

Gambling our way to Prosperity:

"Revel has failed thus far to grow the gambling market here, and despite massive state subsidies it is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy....

By the Numbers

New Jersey's support for the $2.4 billion Revel casino

$261 million in state tax credits

$37 million in state funds for widening roads leading to Revel

$2.6 million in state funds for employee training

 $22 million estimated rebate on the luxury sales tax for the next 20 years

"LATE UPDATE...

New Jersey economy undercuts Governor Christie's rhetoric

Per script, Republican rhetoric and reality - diametrical opposed.

7

And Rainbows For Everyone

Shy Elf.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 11:14:14 AM EST

5.00 (astute, informative)

Many of the papers he cites do not support the conclusions he draws from them, and his budget appears to rely on the traditional mystical economic growth to generate extra tax revenue.

Large destabilizing events, such as those analyzed here, evidently produce changes in the performance of key macroeconomic indicators over the longer term, well after the upheaval of the crisis is over. There is little good news to be found in the result that income growth tends to slow and unemployment remains elevated for a very long time after a severe shock. The human temptation to credit good fortune to good character and bad results to bad luck further complicates matters. A ubiquitous pattern in policy pitfalls has been to assume negative shocks are temporary, when these were, in fact, subsequently revealed to be permanent (or, at least, very persistent).
In advanced economies, following a severe financial shock, it takes decades if ever (see page 16, but the rest is worth reading too) for unemployment and output relative to trend to return to pre-crisis levels.  The immediate pre-crisis period was almost always unsustainably hot economically.  With this in mind 2% growth isn't looking so awful, especially by comparison with Europe.

8

^ 7

Re: And Rainbows For Everyone

Ephraim Gadsby.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 12:34:55 PM EST

none

Klein's article is dishonest.

That's a good paper by the Reinharts. So is this one:

We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90% for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and other more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with growth over one percent lower than during other periods. Perhaps the most striking new finding here is the duration of the average debt overhang episode. Among the 26 episodes we identify, 20 lasted more than a decade. Five of the six shorter episodes were immediately after World Wars I and II. Across all 26 cases, the average duration in years is about 23 years. The long duration belies the view that the correlation is caused mainly by debt buildups during business cycle recessions. The long duration also implies that cumulative shortfall in output from debt overhang is potentially massive. We find that growth effects are significant even in the many episodes where debtor countries were able to secure continual access to capital markets at relatively low real interest rates. That is, growth-reducing effects of high public debt are apparently not transmitted exclusively through high real interest rates.

20

^ 8

Re: And Rainbows For Everyone

novy.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 11:59:01 PM EST

none

Only right-wing nuts strike you as "honest". Everyone else can suck eggs, especially if they win Nobel Prizes for their work.

43

^ 20

Re: And Rainbows For Everyone

thefadd.

Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 09:34:15 AM EST

none

Is Ron Paul a right wing nut?

I HAD HAD SEX WITH HUNTER S THOMPSON. HE CAME IN MY MOUTH AND I SWALLOWED IT. I SHOULD HAVE HAD HIS BABY. WE WOULD BE BALLIN' LIKE KOBE'S SON!!

44

^ 43

Re: And Rainbows For Everyone

novy.

Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:18:31 AM EST

none

"Left-wing nut" on some issues, "right-wing nut" on others. I bet you could find plenty of economists who shared his view on fiat money, but nowhere near majority status. People who take views that don't accord with established belief systems generally get called "nuts".

46

^ 44

Re: And Rainbows For Everyone

thefadd.

Sat Sep 01, 2012 at 10:21:27 PM EST

5.00

The status quo is nuts. Following it is the only sure way to failure.

I HAD HAD SEX WITH HUNTER S THOMPSON. HE CAME IN MY MOUTH AND I SWALLOWED IT. I SHOULD HAVE HAD HIS BABY. WE WOULD BE BALLIN' LIKE KOBE'S SON!!

11

^ 7

Re: And Rainbows For Everyone

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 01:32:21 PM EST

3.00

Klein, besides being a disingenuous, partisan hack, doesn't understand how research works. He therefore didn't cite any misquotes in the white paper. Actually there weren't any, but he (and you) don't seem to understand how these things work.

22

^ 11

Re: And Rainbows For Everyone

novy.

Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 12:11:33 AM EST

none

Those folks you like to quote strike me as disingenuous partisan hacks as well. No one knows how things work except you and Alf. How do you earn your living again?

16

Re: argumentum ad verecundiam economicus

Otto Maddox.

Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 10:08:02 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

DeLong finds a nut.

"The conventional way to score these things is to look at how many members of your party's Council of Economic Advisers could be induced to sign this thing. By that count, on a scale where 10 is perfect agreement, the score is...

3.7!

That is a remarkably low score at this game: less than 4 out of 10 economists appointed by Republicans to the Council of Economic Advisors want to be associated with this..."

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends on his not understanding it" ~Sinclair

This story: 46 comments (0 from subqueue)
Post a Comment