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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 09:26:11 AM EST
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yet most Americans still basically hate Russia
I honestly don't know where you get that from...I can't say that I've ever, in my daily interactions with people, have run into anyone who "hates Russia." China, yes. North Korea, yes. Iran, yes. Israel, yes. France, yes. Shit, even Mexico and Canada, on rare occasion. Russia? Worried, at worst, about the autocratic nature of the Russian leadership and the endemic corruption, but it's indifference most of the time, if anything at all. Certainly not hate.
never expect it to be truly free
I think you're strongly overstating that sentiment, but there is something to it - probably because everyone got so caught up in Yeltsin and what happened in the 1990s, when it seemed like Russia was really on the path to quickly becoming a free / liberal Western state, that the last decade or so of Putin has been very disheartening.
can't conceive of any other way to deal with Russia aside from continuing to be enemies. You'd have more chance of positive outcomes from changing your attitudes about Russia
I'm honestly not sure what you mean by that statement - are you saying that we should buddy up with Putin? That doesn't exactly seem to square with your lamenting about the Russian people being brutalized by neo-tsarists and traditionalists. Are you saying that we should support the opposition? If we do that openly and loudly, then Russia will soon truly be our enemy, because it's not clear at all that Putin is so unpopular that the opposition has a chance in hell right now. If we step in to support them and they get their hopes up and then get brutally crushed, the situation becomes worse for everyone. I think of, for example, the situation in the Ukraine - it seemed like the West was really on the right side there, supporting the Orange Revolution, and yet not too long after those parties lost power through more or less free and fair elections. It is not always so obvious which side the people are on, and if we've learned anything over the last century or so, it's that democracy cannot be imposed by a minority. So, I am very curious, what do you think the US should be doing right now?
Allons-y!
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 11:21:35 AM EST
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OK, probably many more Americans remain intentionally oblivious/ indifferent to Russia than actively hate it. Hate would involve passion or feelings that most Americans don't possess except with respect to one another. But when your government sics Georgia on Russia, and one of your presidential candidates indicates that your troops should be posted on Russia's frontiers, it sounds like you still think of Russia as your enemy, even if that conviction remains passionless.
As for hating China, considering how many conservatives on this forum have nothing but nice things to say about Chinese pseudo-capitalism, I don't see it. Israel? With 75 million rabid evangelical Netanyahu supporters, not even to mention American Jewry, where do you see hatred (other than from, say, Alf and associates)? North Korea? Mostly indifference there, too. Indeed, American hatred seems reserved for Muslims (and those seen as supporting or excusing actions of Muslims) these days, whether they live in Iran or France.
When America could have launched another Marshall Plan to help Russia transition from Communism to democracy, America sat on its hands and laughed at buffoon Yeltsin, cheering him on because it looked like he was leading Russia into weakness and destitution. You could have turned Russia into one of your important allies, as you did with Germany or Japan, but you didn't want Russia to be your friend, then or now. You weren't cheering for democracy during Yeltsin's regime, you were cheering because Russia could no longer be taken seriously as threatening, and you have been upset with Putin more because he has pursued foreign policy objectives that don't align with yours than because of his autocratic rule, which has been less onerous than that of Saudi or most of your other Sunni pals.
Having pissed away most of its opportunities for influence in Russia, it would be hard to say what America should do NOW to change course. I suppose I would advocate making real efforts to treat Russia with respect internationally and to include Russia in important decisions, offering economic assistance in exchange for "reforms" that would make international investment safer (i.e., encouraging rule of law), increasing cultural contacts (so that more Russians get exposed to Western liberal ideas), and offering (at least) lip service support to people who have become Westernised and want Russia to become more middle-class in its attitudes and orientation. Not bloody likely, to be sure.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 11:42:11 AM EST
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he has pursued foreign policy objectives that don't align with yours
And therefore we should suck their cocks?
No, if Russia wants to pursue foreign policy objectives that align with the west, they would be more than welcome to join the fold. Until then, fuck 'em - if you act like an enemy, you'll be treated like one.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 12:40:32 PM EST
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His foreign policy divergences have mostly come since you encouraged Georgia to attack Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Your actions practically set off his.
If America were playing 21st century Asia as England played 19th century Europe, Russia would be your natural ally in face of rising Chinese and Indian power. Too bad America's right doesn't believe in diplomacy, which doesn't provide quite as much testicular surge as invading countries that you don't like.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 05:30:30 PM EST
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Foreign policy divergence started when Russia backed Serbia in the Yugoslavian wars in the 90s and then continued with the Russians providing intelligence to Iraq and selling nuclear equipment to Iran and has worsened with the unquestioned backing of Assad in Syria.
Most Americans own lots of things that were made in China - what does Russia have to offer, exactly? It is a backwater nation because it wants to be, for what are apparently ego related reasons.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 05:35:59 PM EST
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...what does Russia have to offer..?
What,
seriously?!
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 07:14:29 PM EST
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"In the 90s", after you had already Russians' standard of living sink precipitously.
Russia offers natural resources, upon which western Europe has become completely dependent lately. Of course, you don't need Russian resources because you get yours from those great guys in Saudi instead.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 07:54:50 PM EST
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The US did not in any way cause the Russian standard living to fall - that was a result of Russians lacking the wherewithal to continue their rape of eastern Europe.
Most of the countries that had the Russian boot on their neck for 50 years have seen their standard of living skyrocket with the fall of communism without a Marshall plan. Why haven't the Russians been able to accomplish that?
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 09:53:54 PM EST
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"The US did not in any way cause the Russian standard living to fall", you just didn't care to do anything about it.
Russia's inability to exploit other countries didn't cause its economic problems (Russia's empire cost more to maintain than it produced), its problems arose from horrendous mismanagement.
Since Putin took over, Russia has developed its own middle class. How did THAT happen?
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 01:45:36 AM EST
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Most of the countries that had the Russian boot on their neck for 50 years have seen their standard of living skyrocket with the fall of communism without a Marshall plan. Why haven't the Russians been able to accomplish that?
Is that what you call it? At least they were relatively rich to start out with.
More on FSU GDP growth leader Turkmenistan.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:51:28 AM EST
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In 1991, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic were substantially poorer than Russia and yet have managed to close that gap (and in some cases, exceed Russian GDP/capita) without massive oil & gas resources, mostly because they chose to by becoming western nations.
Russia made a different choice - refusing to become part of the western consensus - and has seen subpar growth even as natural resource export prices have risen considerably.
Most of the ex-Soviet states have remained in the Russian sphere (the Baltics and sometimes Ukraine are an exception here) and, in the Asian state, were extremely poor to begin with.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:09:20 AM EST
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Why should Russia be more a natural ally for us than India?
If America were playing 21st century Asia as England played 19th century Europe,
How'd that turn out for England, Europe, and the world?
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 11:24:13 PM EST
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- Russia has longer borders with China than India, and has more legitimate fears that their territory could end up (back) in Chinese hands.
- Russians look (and usually sound) like other Europeans (as Zyx likes to show us from time to time), and Europe served as cradle for American civilisation.
- Russians have more natural resources than any other major country in Asia.
- Russians have generally been better educated than Indians (although that could change over time).
How did England's approach to Europe work out for England? They established one of history's largest empires which lasted for over 100 years. For Europe? Better than if England hadn't held out successfully against Hitler. For the world? Anglosphere countries have been responsible for industrialisation and for much of modern technology.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 11:42:32 AM EST
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How did England's approach to Europe work out for England? They established one of history's largest empires which lasted for over 100 years. For Europe? Better than if England hadn't held out successfully against Hitler. For the world? Anglosphere countries have been responsible for industrialisation and for much of modern technology.
I won't claim to be a historian, so maybe port1080 can chime in, but I thought England's playing off of continental powers against one another contributed to WWI . . . and therefore WWII.
As for India, it just has always struck me as a more natural ally for the US, and I don't know why we didn't do more to embrace them-- and less to embrace the Chinese-- after the Cold War. Nothing against China or Russia, but India is far closer to a democracy as we know it and has better age-profile demographics to attain and sustain world power status into the late 21st century.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 06:36:48 PM EST
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WWI wouldn't have happened but for Archduke Ferdinand's assassination. Nobody really wanted that war, but after one of its crown princes got offed, Austria-Hungary felt it had no choice but to punish Serbia for what had happened, and alliance systems were so rigid that everything went off like dynamite.
If Britain hadn't been trying to balance things in Europe, perhaps it could have refused to enter into war with Germany and Austria-Hungary, but if it had taken that approach Germany would have seriously threatened to achieve supremacy in Europe, which would have put it in position to seriously threaten Britain's (admittedly mostly maritime) empire. Hindsight has always been 20/20.
India was officially "nonaligned" between America and Russia during their Cold War, but plainly favoured Russia, probably because it still resented British colonial rule prior to WWII. But countries that snubbed Britain usually snubbed America as well. India might look like America's natural partner, but history screwed things up somewhat.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 08:40:44 PM EST
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WWI wouldn't have happened but for Archduke Ferdinand's assassination. Nobody really wanted that war...
Ho ho!
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 10:26:00 PM EST
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It warms my heart that I can make you laugh with such regularity.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:15:51 AM EST
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Trust me: it is the only reason I pay any attention to you whatsoever.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:56:04 AM EST
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Professional comedians make serious money in your country. Maybe I need to start practicing more.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:51:40 PM EST
5.00 (astute)
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Nobody wanted the war they got. In Barbara Tuchman's The Guns of August she points out that the general feeling in Europe was that they had become so economically interdependent that any war would be a short, jolly affair. Meanwhile, they had been arming to the teeth and developing full-scale industrialized weapons. As we now know, things got rapidly out of control.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:13:36 PM EST
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Nobody wanted the war they got
In a manner of speaking, perhaps, but they sure wanted the territories they had annexed and the armies and navies they had raised because their neighbors were annexing and/or raising armies and navies.
Anyway, the idea that the war "wouldn't have happened but for Archduke Ferdinand's assassination" is so simplistic as to induce mirth.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:56:09 PM EST
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If it hadn't been old Ferdinand it would have been something else. The thing is, if you read about how badly run the entire assasination was, you come away amazed that a series of snafus and bungles could have ended up in a continental war. The word tragicomic doesn't even come close.
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Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:05:32 PM EST
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The thing is, if you read about how badly run the entire assasination was...
Corollary of Murphy's Law: If it's stupid, but it works, it ain't stupid.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:24:01 PM EST
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As we now know, things got rapidly out of control.
That's how I explain most of my weekends.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:24:37 AM EST
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I thought India favored Russia because we favored Pakistan and China.
and alliance systems were so rigid that everything went off like dynamite
Well, that's my point. Having a balanced system of alliances is not inevitably the stabilizing factor people argue it is when they point to an American wane as a good thing.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:54:50 AM EST
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America certainly didn't even begin to favour China until its Cold War with Russia was practically over, and it favoured Pakistan eventually because India was unwilling to be its ally.
America and Russia were balanced for some 45 years. Amazingly little blood was shed. That doesn't mean that balanced alliance systems always produce that result, merely that they wouldn't be doomed from inception.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 12:59:37 PM EST
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When America could have launched another Marshall Plan to help Russia transition from Communism to democracy, America sat on its hands and laughed at buffoon Yeltsin, cheering him on because it looked like he was leading Russia into weakness and destitution.
If Yeltsin was a buffoon, how could giving him more money to waste have made things any better? You're being incoherent. America can't fix everyone's problems...if we had gone in full force in the 1990s you'd probably be bitching about how we tried to make Russia our puppet. You can't even seem to decide if you like Putin or hate him, and you're complaining that the US isn't doing enough? Make up your mind about what you want us to do and then we can talk.
Allons-y!
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 02:49:02 PM EST
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Giving Yeltsin money to spend wouldn't have helped, but Marshall Plan money didn't go directly to governments in Germany or Japan either.
America couldn't fix Germany's or Japan's problems either, but it took steps that made it much easier for Germans and Japanese to fix their own problems, from which steps it obtained loyal long-term allies. It didn't feel that way about Russia.
I've already told you what I would have done, albeit with some trepidation. Sorry you didn't notice.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 03:31:18 PM EST
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America couldn't fix Germany's or Japan's problems either, but it took steps that made it much easier for Germans and Japanese to fix their own problems, from which steps it obtained loyal long-term allies. It didn't feel that way about Russia.
Somehow I think that if the United States had written Russia's post-communist constitution and forced Yeltsin to adopt it at gunpoint, and occupied Russia for half a century, that you wouldn't really have been a big fan of that. Or are you forgetting those parts of Japan's and Germany's post-war rehabilitation?
Allons-y!
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 03:47:49 PM EST
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In other words, you only helped Germany and Japan because you beat them in WWII? And you didn't help Russia because Communism collapsed without your assistance, even though Russia did more than you did to take down Germany when they were your allies in WWII?
Somehow I think that if America had privately insisted on three or four key reforms, without seeking to humiliate Russia in connection with adopting them, prior to giving Russia aid, it would have gotten what it wanted without much opposition. But Americans don't even care; they wouldn't have helped anyway. Unless it feels good, Americans don't do it, and nothing feels quite as good as rubbing ex-enemies noses in feces.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 05:24:29 PM EST
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In other words, you only helped Germany and Japan because you beat them in WWII? And you didn't help Russia because Communism collapsed without your assistance, even though Russia did more than you did to take down Germany when they were your allies in WWII?
No, that is not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying that World War II resulted in some very unique circumstances that allowed the US to mold Germany and Japan in its image, and the only reason it worked is because they were abjectly defeated, because they were more terrified of the Soviets than they were of the US, and because we occupied them for close to fifty years (well, probably only the first two decades were strictly necessary). My point is that you can't learn any lessons from Germany and Japan and apply them to post-Soviet Russia, because the circumstances weren't remotely the same.
Somehow I think that if America had privately insisted on three or four key reforms, without seeking to humiliate Russia in connection with adopting them, prior to giving Russia aid, it would have gotten what it wanted without much opposition.
I think you are incredibly, ridiculously naive to think that Russia's leadership would have agreed to be an American client state just like that.
But Americans don't even care; they wouldn't have helped anyway. Unless it feels good, Americans don't do it, and nothing feels quite as good as rubbing ex-enemies noses in feces.
If that's the case, why did we rehab Germany and Japan? Again, you're being incoherent here. If anything, the US has a long history of turning around and making up to countries that had recently been its enemies. I simply don't get where you're coming from with all this.
Allons-y!
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 07:11:25 PM EST
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Insisting on "rule of law" or protection of investments wouldn't have turned Russia into America's "client state" any more than it turned China into America's "client state". If "unique circumstances" make it absurd to compare 1948-1949 to 1990-1991 in your first paragraph, I find it odd that you nonetheless take so much credit for rehabbing Germany and Japan in your last paragraph.
But I think it past time to back off anyway. You don't usually get worked up enough to call anyone "incredibly, ridiculously naive", so I have plainly caused unnecessary upset. Forget it, really. Just another crazy eastern European who doesn't know what he should be talking about.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 09:04:12 PM EST
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Insisting on "rule of law" or protection of investments wouldn't have turned Russia into America's "client state" any more than it turned China into America's "client state".
The US didn't force China to adopt "rule of law" (such as it is - if you've been paying attention to the Bo Xilai scandal it's obvious that China still has a long way to go there), and I don't have a clue why you think the US would have had the leverage to force Russia to do so. The oligarchs were mostly people who already had some established power base in the old system, and they would have been highly resistant (and highly capable of resistance) to the US coming in and trying to force them to play by the rules.
If "unique circumstances" make it absurd to compare 1948-1949 to 1990-1991 in your first paragraph, I find it odd that you nonetheless take so much credit for rehabbing Germany and Japan in your last paragraph.
Umm, wut? Does that even make sense to you when you go back and read it again? I said that unique circumstances allowed us to be successful in rehabbing Japan and Germany. Those unique circumstances did not exist with Russia (and still don't). There is nothing contradictory about anything I said.
But I think it past time to back off anyway. You don't usually get worked up enough to call anyone "incredibly, ridiculously naive", so I have plainly caused unnecessary upset. Forget it, really. Just another crazy eastern European who doesn't know what he should be talking about.
You haven't really backed up any of your points with anything other than assertions that seem to fly in the face of facts. Give me something to work with here...you're usually a pretty skeptical guy, why do you have such a strong belief that the US could have gone in and done good here? Would you feel the same way about US intervention in, I don't know, Iran? Iraq, for that matter? Look at all the good we did there...
Allons-y!
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 09:49:11 PM EST
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No, international investors wouldn't invest in China unless it protected them, and so they decided to do so, years before CCCP fell. Russians could have been similarly convinced.
Oligarchs, like most rich Westerners, wanted rule of law too. Some of them have ended up in prison because it still doesn't exist.
There was nothing self-contradictory about your second paragraph here, but I saw contradiction between your assertions in your first and third paragraphs in your previous post.
Military interventions don't work for America. Economic interventions (by which I don't mean "sanctions") often do.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 08:26:21 AM EST
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No, international investors wouldn't invest in China unless it protected them, and so they decided to do so
That is the kicker. The Chinese were the driving force there, not the US - China opened up FIRST, then the US businesses came in (and it was business driven, not government driven - remember that as late as the late 1990s, the US was still debating over whether to renew its trade agreements with China, and whether to block it from the WTO, because of ongoing concerns over Taiwan, Tiananmen Square, and other human rights abuses). I just don't see why you think the US had any control over China, and I really don't see why you think we would have been able to have any control over Russia. Also not sure why you would want us to have exercised that control, if we did have it. You're displaying the same weird dynamic that a lot of non-US people do - on the one hand, you act like we're all powerful but all we do is bad, and yet on the other hand when we don't do something, you criticize us for not stepping in and doing the right thing. You also seem to forget that the US government isn't some monolithic organization, and that policies change from President to President (and even within presidencies - look at the massive shift Reagan took mid-term vis-a-vis the USSR, for example). I really think it's odd to think, though, that Clinton, of all presidents, was trying to turn the screws on Russia. Bush II, maybe did some stupid things (although I'd say that was more because he was a stupid president than out of any particular malice towards Russia), but Clinton, Russia hater? Really?
Allons-y!
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:28:50 AM EST
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I've plainly offended you, which was not my intent. America wasn't required to do anything for Russia, and it didn't, and now Russia has turned crypto-fascist and inconvenient to American foreign policy goals, and all I meant to say was that it could have been different. In my opinion only, of course. If that opinion makes me ridiculously naive, so be it.
Americans watched developments in Tienanmen Square with excitement, genuinely hoping China would go democratic, and were tangibly disappointed by what happened there. Americans watched similar developments in Russia with ennui tinged with malevolence, hoping Russia would screw itself, which it did for quite some time.
American has believed in buying allies in many previous situations, but it didn't want to throw anything Russia's way. If it had been willing to do so, it would have had lots more influence in Russia without insulting anyone. I apologise if that seems crazy to you.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 09:06:22 PM EST
5.00 (astute)
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Americans watched developments in Tienanmen Square with excitement, genuinely hoping China would go democratic, and were tangibly disappointed by what happened there. Americans watched similar developments in Russia with ennui tinged with malevolence, hoping Russia would screw itself, which it did for quite some time.
I lived through the fall of the Berlin Wall, in America - in redneck, communist hating, conservative America. I honestly cannot understand where you get the idea that there was any desire among Americans to see Russia screw itself. I just don't see it. Throwing this out to other TnT US citizens who are older than me and perhaps had a different perspective on the events of the 1990s - did you see that / feel that? Honestly all I remember is a strong desire to see Russia become a normal country, with free markets and a liberal democracy. I really don't know where you get this idea from that we all wanted to see Russia suffer. Is there something specific that you can point me to that makes you believe this?
Allons-y!
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 11:46:18 PM EST
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I remember both the strong desire to see Russia become a normal country, with free markets and a liberal democracy, and also the desire to see Russia screw itself as much as possible, just in case it didn't, and with some bloody-minded revenge thinking thrown in. I remember it as having taken another decade or so before people really accepted that Russia wasn't going to revert back to being like it was during the Soviet Union.
I also remember Yeltsin's 1993 coup as receiving pretty much unanimous wholehearted support, because removed the Communist-dominated legislature from power. Nobody seemed much concerned that it eliminated many of the institutions of liberal democracy, because they'd never had really free elections in the first place. It's definitely looking more like a mixed outcome at this point.
From around 2000 on, I remember there being in the US a general belief that Russia had become a normal country, with free markets and a liberal democracy. With the Pussy Riot flap, there seems to be some waking up to the fact that this has not actually happened.
In Russia, it's been well known for quite some time that speech critical of the government is likely to result in the speaker being murdered or thrown in prison.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:46:58 AM EST
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I was a kid when the Iron Curtain tumbled, but I remember having what I would consider a stereotypical American impression: people are overthrowing their evil governments, i.e. I/we were rooting for them.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 11:17:18 PM EST
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I read lots of American media and watch lots of American television programming, and I thought I saw major differences in how your media dealt with China and how it dealt with Russia.
But if you think I have been hallucinating, fine.
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 10:44:14 PM EST
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Just another crazy eastern European who doesn't know what he should be talking about.
I know I'll never convince you, but that really isn't what we see. Personally I think your biggest problem is that you've allowed your view of the US to be shaped not by your eastern european roots but by your present Canadian location.
[I'm not that guy.]
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Re: American Conservatives Approve?
Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 11:43:22 PM EST
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Since I've spent more of my life here than there, that does seem likely. Canada (like other Anglosphere countries) seems so similar to America in so many ways that it can be tempting at times to think of America as Alberta writ large, as silly as that sounds even to me.
So, aside from being comically and parochially Canadian, what DO you see?