SciTech

US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Posted to SciTech on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:38:22 AM EST (promoted from Diaries by port1080). RSS.

Carbon dioxide emissions in the United States are lower than at any time in the past two decades. More remarkably, CO2 emissions per capita are lower than at any time in the past half-century.

How did this miracle come about?

Is it because the Democrats are giving tax cuts to the well-off to buy electric cars?

Is it because the Democrats squandered billions promoting solar energy?

Is it because President Obama banned oil drilling in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon disaster?

Is it because President Obama wants to raise taxes on "Big Oil"?

No, it is none of those things.


The truth is that the US has dramatically lowered its greenhouse emissions because of the actions of greedy fracking capitalists.

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1

Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

indecentspeech.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 09:52:34 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

So reduce CO2 emissions and instead pollute groundwater?

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:32:12 AM EST

5.00 (insolent)

The best outcome would seem to be not polluting groundwater.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

novy.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 12:04:24 PM EST

none

Pollution of groundwater, like methane leakage, has already been substantially reduced and will probably be reduced still further. Fracking remains relatively new, and regulation of fracking activities will likely address most of the concerns that environmentalists in states like New York have promoted with such passion.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

Shy Elf.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 11:52:17 PM EST

5.00 (interesting, helpful)

Fracking remains relatively new

No, it isn't.  See Port's link dating the technology to 1977.  It was widely used in the Austin Chalk in the 80s, and has been used all around the oil and gas industry for decades.   What's new is that they've gradually adapted it to work on harder and less permeable rock, and when natural gas prices spiked in 2005-2006, they started using it with good commercial success in shales, and realized, "hey, this is actually cheaper than that other conventional stuff we've been doing", so it took off as the dominant method since then instead of a niche market.

Most of the short-term pollution problems related to fracked natural gas development are of types which occur with any oil or gas development.  Whether you're talking about loss of well integrity, leaks or improper disposal of produced fluid, or hydrocarbon and heavy metal contamination, all of them happen at rates which aren't much different with conventional wells.  Somehow we've accepted this idea that conventional wells are clean, but fracked wells are a messy disaster.  Conventional oil and gas development has always been dirty, when when done with reasonable care.

And it isn't being done with reasonable care.  Oil and gas development is regulated by the states in very different ways.  There has been very little development in the Northeast for many decades, so the states are not at all equipped to regulate it, and the Republicans are doing their best to see that state government doesn't become ready to regulate it.  There are plenty of toxic wastelands around the world where the oil industry operated free from regulation.

It's not like you can't have oil and gas development with relatively strict regulation.  Texas is famous for it.  Pennsylvania seems to be more following the lead of Louisiana instead, though.

2

Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

port1080.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:27:13 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

As shown in a study by the Breakthrough Institute, fracking was built on substantial government investment in technological innovation for three decades.

Guess you didn't read through to the end, thought I'd add that in there for you.  Also - while I generally think fracking and natural gas is better than strip mining and coal, let's not forget that there are very valid environmental side effects from fracking as well, and they actually directly impact people on the ground right now a lot more than global warming.  State regulators need to keep a close eye on what's going on right now, because nobody really knows what the environmental consequences might be down the road.  Take a drive through the abandoned strip mines and culm banks and uninhabitable towns of the anthracite coal region in central PA sometime if you want a sense of what unregulated extractive industry can do to the environment.

Allons-y!

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:35:05 AM EST

3.00 (insipid)

The government gave money to otherwise unprofitable oil companies to produce this abundance of natural gas? That hasn't been reported anywhere that I have seen.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

port1080.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:37:24 AM EST

5.00 (astute)

Read and be amazed (since you were too lazy to follow the link I already provided):

"I'm conservative as hell," Dan Steward, the former Mitchell Energy geologist whose company pioneered shale gas in Texas, told us. But when asked about the role of government, Steward told us, "They did a hell of a lot of work, and I can't give them enough credit for that. [The Department of Energy] started it, and other people took the ball and ran with it. You cannot diminish DOE's involvement."

Steward said the government directly or indirectly supported Mitchell energy every step of the way. "[The government] helped us to evaluate how much gas was there and evaluate its critical properties," he explained. "They helped us with our first horizontal well. They helped us with pressure build-ups. And we worked with them on crack mapping."

While Jimmy Carter is often pointed to as the President who initiated the energy push in response to the oil crises of the early seventies, it was Republican President Gerald Ford who began a concerted federal effort to seek "unconventional" natural gas in response to shortages. "The DOE's [1976] Eastern Gas Shales Project [in the Appalachia basin] determined there was a hell of a lot of gas in shales," explained Steward. "Mitchell was interested in Barnett [shale] and his geophysicist said, 'It looks similar to the Devonian [shale], and the government's already done all this work on the Devonian.'"

Allons-y!

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:44:43 AM EST

none

I read it. So what?

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Seriously

Ephraim Gadsby.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 12:22:58 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

"it was Republican President Gerald Ford who began a concerted federal effort to seek "unconventional" natural gas in response to shortages."

Not only that, Gerald Ford was the Funky President.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

novy.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 12:17:36 PM EST

none

There was never any guarantee that government's investment in extracting natural gas from shale formations would be any more cost-effective than its investments in solar technology or its tax credits for purchasing electric cars. But as in most cases of technological breakthroughs, when government actually gets something right, private entrepreneurs usually manage to hog all credit. (It reminds me of all those conservatives laughing at Al Gore for bragging about government's role in Internet development.)

Almost everyone involved with energy production knows about George Mitchell and Mitchell Energy, but almost no one knows how involved America's government was, or for how long it funded Mitchell and his company.

But for activist government, this fracking boom would never have taken place. But conservatives need to tell themselves and others that government creates all of our problems and never helps come up with solutions. They have always been wrong about that.

And now, with respect to fracking too, "you didn't built that" without government help. What does that imply about hogging rewards and trying to avoid paying taxes?

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 01:09:44 PM EST

none

It reminds me of all those conservatives laughing at Al Gore for bragging about government's role in Internet development

http://www.treesandthings.com/story/2012/7/28/174058/606#2

And now, with respect to fracking too, "you didn't built that" without government help. What does that imply about hogging rewards and trying to avoid paying taxes?
It implies that capitalism produced a remarkable and unexpected reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The government didn't do that.

11

Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

AngryWhiteMan.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 07:13:01 PM EST

3.67 (ignorant, astute, brilliant)

Look at the EIA report. Natural gas production has been fluctuating between 19 and 22 quadrillion btu since 1973. Coal has been fluctuating between 21 and 23 quadrillion btu since 1990.

Pretty much the most bullshit conclusion I've read in, oh, since that last time zyx typed his name. I mean, it couldn't possibly make sense that CO2 is down due to businesses that are running far below capacity now since that marvelous global meltdown brought on my the miracle of unbridled capitalism. Oops, I mean, poor people.

Or that people are driving less to the jobs they don't have due to the miracle of unregulated greed. Nope. Couldn't be.

Gotta be Solyndra. Which btw, cost us about as much as one F-35 piece of shit worthless fighter. And if Solyndra really pisses you off, take it up with tjb's favorite, perfect capitalists - China. Who was government subsidizing the crap out of their panels in order to corner the market. Mission accomplished comrades.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 10:40:25 AM EST

5.00 (searing)

Natural gas production has been fluctuating between 19 and 22 quadrillion btu since 1973. Coal has been fluctuating between 21 and 23 quadrillion btu since 1990
It's somewhat sad that you believe you know enough about the topic to form an opinion.

Did anyone say the chief reason the CO2 emissions are down is because natural gas production is higher? If you had read the article (and were capable of understanding what you read) you would know that's not the case.

(For anyone who can understand, the reason is that fracking has made gas production cheaper, to the point where it is a more attractive commodity than coal for production of electricity. Natural gas can produce electricity much more efficiently than coal can, so a ton of natural gas CO2 displaces considerably more than a ton of coal CO2.)

... it couldn't possibly make sense that CO2 is down due to businesses that are running far below capacity...
Total energy production in the US was higher in 2009 than in pre-recession 2007. So, no, that's not why CO2 emissions are much lower.

Or that people are driving less to the jobs they don't have...
Must be that, sure. According to the page you linked to, miles driven is down 3%. Surely that accounts for a 14% drop in CO2 emissions.

Who was government subsidizing the crap out of their panels in order to corner the market. Mission accomplished comrades
Yes, how awful that China taxes their citizens in order to benefit American consumers.


Really, really stupid comment from you. Again. At least indecentspeech thinks you are "brilliant." But I guess there's no accounting for why people mod up sockpuppets.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

indecentspeech.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 01:49:23 PM EST

1.00 (mendacious)

I don't have any sockpuppets if that's what you are saying. I only had one another account and that was 'improper', and I stated already in another thread that I can't use that account.

I already waste enough time here without needing sockpuppets.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 02:10:02 PM EST

1.00 (brilliant)

Really? That was the most flattering explanation as to why you would mod that comment as "brilliant."

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

indecentspeech.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 02:23:23 PM EST

1.00 (deceitful)

Your reading comprehension is still abysmal as post #15 was an explanation of why I don't have sockpuppets.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 02:45:37 PM EST

3.00 (brilliant)

Well, then, tell me: why did you call that comment "brilliant"?

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

indecentspeech.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 02:47:20 PM EST

3.67 (irrelevant, gay, funny)

If it upsets you that much I will not look at another poster again. By the way, you look pretty today.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 03:15:26 PM EST

5.00 (correct, agreed)

Nothing here upsets me: it's all various degrees of entertaining since Thalia left.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

Anywhere.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 02:24:55 PM EST

5.00 (informative)

Total energy production in the US was higher in 2009 than in pre-recession 2007. So, no, that's not why CO2 emissions are much lower.

If we're discussing gas replacing coal, shouldn't we be discussing electrical production rather than all energy?  That went down from '07 to '09 and, while it was trending upward again, was still lower in '10 than in '07.  Coal use went down more than gas went up, but wind went up almost as much as gas-- and a much higher percentage up, of course.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 03:11:07 PM EST

none

If we're discussing gas replacing coal, shouldn't we be discussing electrical production rather than all energy?
No.

...wind went up almost as much as gas...
Incorporating wind power into a generating system can make the system less efficient and cause increased emissions.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

Anywhere.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 03:31:00 PM EST

none

In what other area of energy production is gas replacing coal?

Incorporating wind power into a generating system can make the system less efficient and cause increased emissions.

Could you site some examples of that happening?  The only incidences I'm aware of the system becoming "less efficient" is times when turbines were producing too much energy and had to be taken off the grid.  That doesn't increase emissions.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

Anywhere.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 03:31:51 PM EST

none

*Cite, of course.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 06:16:15 PM EST

none

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

Ephraim Gadsby.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 06:37:37 PM EST

5.00 (true)

Also wind turbines murder birds.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 08:32:12 PM EST

5.00

That's bad because birds taste good.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

Ephraim Gadsby.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 11:56:17 AM EST

none

Also wind turbines are a visual blight.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 12:08:43 PM EST

none

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

Ephraim Gadsby.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 12:13:49 PM EST

none

I like how circular fields look.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

Anywhere.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 09:18:21 AM EST

none

"If"  "in danger of"  "could"

In other words: it's a possibility as we progress toward properly managing the grid.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 09:25:48 AM EST

none

...it's a possibility...
It is an empirical fact.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

Anywhere.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 10:32:40 AM EST

none

Elastic properties have more of an effect on the speed of sound than the density of the medium.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 06:14:14 PM EST

none

In what other area of energy production is gas replacing coal?
I have no idea, but if there were any I could find out in the EIA report. So could you.

Could you site some examples of that happening?
TX, CO, UK, NL.

The only incidences I'm aware of the system becoming "less efficient" is times when turbines were producing too much energy and had to be taken off the grid.  That doesn't increase emissions
The loss of efficiency is when, unpredictably, the wind stops blowing. Which happens a lot.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

Anywhere.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 09:16:47 AM EST

none

I have no idea, but if there were any

Exactly.

The loss of efficiency is when, unpredictably, the wind stops blowing.

You don't understand what efficiency means in terms of the electrical grid.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 09:27:29 AM EST

none

Exactly
I have exactly zero idea what your point is.

You don't understand what efficiency means in terms of the electrical grid
I probably have a decent understanding, but I don't believe I was discussing the grid.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

Anywhere.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 10:27:21 AM EST

none

Then your comment wasn't relevant.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 10:47:37 AM EST

5.00 (exact)

Whatever.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

shane.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:12:20 PM EST

none

Incorporating wind power into a generating system can make the system less efficient and cause increased emissions.

That's ridiculous.  

The articles you cited do not support your assertion.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:03:23 PM EST

5.00 (clear)

A study in the Netherlands found that turning back-up gas power stations on and off to cover spells when there is little wind actually produces more carbon than a steady supply of energy from an efficient modern gas station.
What's so ridiculous about that? The Bentek paper was based on empirical data and found an increase in CO2 under certain scenarios when wind turbines were introduced into a system with coal-fired plants.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

shane.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:30:00 PM EST

none

It's blindingly obvious a technique exists whereby replacing or augmenting power production with windmills will reduce green house gases.  What's ridiculous is you cite this clearly biased anti-environmental nonsense.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:45:06 PM EST

none

Did you even read the articles?

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

shane.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:55:35 PM EST

none

I read the first one.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:01:05 PM EST

none

I just quoted from the second. The third has a lot of detailed data.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

shane.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:04:49 PM EST

none

wind-watch.org, really.  Do you expect me to take that seriously?

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

shane.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:07:45 PM EST

none

A simple thought experienement:

  • wind energy starts getting created.
  • gas generators are reduced from full-boil to simmer.
  • wind energy stops getting created.
  • gas generators are increased from simmer to full-boil.
Has the c02 in the system been increased or decreased through adding wind?

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:14:46 PM EST

none

Not gas generators, coal.

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Good Enough for Government Work

Shy Elf.

Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 01:25:54 AM EST

none

Here's the article in question, or a more recent version by the same author.  It's non-peer reviewed, and is blatantly political propaganda.  To quote:

This article is a shortened version of a report in Dutch: 'Brandstofbesparing bij de Nederlandse elektriciteitsvoorziening' sent to the Netherlands Government and Parliament in August 2012. Parts usually well known to insiders have been left out.

What he does is to take the amount of fuel used for electric generation, subtract the actual generation divided by the reported efficiency factor, and to assume for no good reason that the difference is due to inefficiencies caused by wind power.  (All numbers as reported by the government of the Netherlands.)  These numbers should be equal regardless of what wind power actually does to efficiency.  "Because the government of the the Netherlands says 1+1=3," isn't a good reason for anything.

Peer review exists to avoid playing whack-a-mole with utter nonsense like this paper.

The Bentek paper is from a reputable source.  Their business is selling natural gas information, so the bias in their spin will be heavily pro-natural gas, but nevertheless they're a reputable source.

They're talking about emissions of specific coal plants in the Texas electric grid.  (The US has three electric grids, the Western one, the Eastern one, and the Texas one.  I think that says something fundamental bout Texas.)  The Texas has the largest fraction of both coal and wind generation.  They look at actual operations during windy shoulder month days, when demand is lowest, and they actually have to curtail baseload power.

The headline said that "pollution went up", but they find that SO2 emissions of the plants went up slightly, not much, NOx emissions went down slightly, not much, and CO2 emissions dropped quite a lot.  Unsurprisingly, when they didn't run the plants at their designed rating, total efficiency was down slightly, and instantaneous efficiency was down a lot during the times when the plant was putting out little power, and mostly sitting round hot and waiting.

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Re: Good Enough for Government Work

zyxwvutsr.

Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 06:47:28 AM EST

none

They're talking about emissions of specific coal plants in the Texas electric grid
And Colorado:
In 2009, the lower number of events resulted in...111,506 tons of CO2 more than would have been produced had the cycling not occurred.

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Ken goes Full Retard

AngryWhiteMan.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 05:53:07 PM EST

none

Oh dear.

Did it ever occur to you that if coal production is roughly steady and we aren't eating the coal or living under mountains of coal, well, something else must be happening?  Like, maybe it's being exported to, and burned in Europe. Damn, lucky for us it's being used way over there at the other side of the Pond. Safe again.

And thank the baby jeebus, free markets have saved us from green house gasses again. Well, except that free methane is a greenhouse gas too. In fact it is a much worst gas than CO2. But lets not test for that, mmmmkay?

That alternate reality IV drip was bound to make that vegetable patch on you shoulders unresponsive at some point. I guess that bird has already flown

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Re: Ken goes Full Retard

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:20:07 AM EST

5.00 (wondered)

Did it ever occur to you that if coal production is roughly steady and we aren't eating the coal or living under mountains of coal, well, something else must be happening?
I am wondering whether the "if" and "roughly" qualifiers in your question are indications that you are ignorant, or disingenuous.

12

Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

HidingFromGoro.

Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:30:24 PM EST

none

Carbon dioxide emissions in the United States are lower than at any time in the past two decades. More remarkably, CO2 emissions per capita are lower than at any time in the past half-century.

How did this miracle come about?

The truth is that the US has dramatically lowered its greenhouse emissions because of the actions of greedy fracking capitalists.

I wasn't aware that climate change was proven to be real.  Isn't a little assumptive to refer to CO2 emissions as "greenhouse emissions" and/or lower CO2 as a good thing?

I got more styles than prison got bricks- ain't that some shit?

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 10:44:10 AM EST

none

Isn't a little assumptive to refer to CO2 emissions as "greenhouse emissions"
Sound science.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 06:23:38 PM EST

4.00 (informative)

By the way, y'all, I really should have highlighted this example of the impressive failure of the left:

... the shift from coal to natural gas has reduced U.S. emissions by 400 to 500 megatons CO2 per year. To put that number in perspective, it is about twice the total effect of the Kyoto Protocol on carbon emissions in the rest of the world, including the European Union.
[Emphasis mine.]

30

Problem Solved. Global Warming is Here.

Shy Elf.

Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 10:11:45 PM EST

none

I find this whole argument less than convincing.  CO2 emissions in the US in the first quarter were down 8% year on year, but around half of that was due to freakishly warm weather.   So why all the focus on the quarter which was due to coal to gas generation switching?

I suppose you could argue that the weather was just a weird one-time effect and won't likely be repeated, but doesn't that make the drop much less impressive?  And if that isn't true and freakishly warm winters are the new normal, why use the warm winter weather to make the argument that global warming isn't going to happen, as the headlines imply?

The generation switch itself was also mostly a one-time switch due to changing operating schedules in order to prioritize gas use over coal use, so that switch can't be a trend, although the slower process of changeover of the generation capacity will still happen to at least some extent.  The reporting on this issue seems to me to be assuming that we can make this one-time switch every year.

So, how did an 8% drop get us back to the levels of 20 years ago?  That happened because emissions were already almost flat, which makes reporting them in numbers of years almost meaningless.  Why were they flat?  Mostly because high energy prices forced conservation measures, which is the direct opposite of the energy price projection made here.  If natural gas prices stay low, this will likely increase, and not decrease, net energy CO2 emissions, because it will remove the price incentives which have forced efficiency increases.

So, ignoring questions about the future availability of natural gas, assuming we actually got rid of all coal generation and replaced it with natural gas, would the resulting emissions reduction be enough?  Given that electric power is about 40% US CO2 emissions a 50% reduction (this seems very optimistic to me, given that it compares new baseload combined cycle plants compared to old technology coal, and there are many gas turbines being built which are less efficient, and newer coal plants would also be somewhat more efficient, but, whatever, let's accept it for the moment) would cut US emissions by 20%.  Is this enough that we don't need to do anything else, as the article seems to imply?

Keep in mind that it takes tens of thousands of years for CO2 leave the system of the atmosphere, ocean, and soils, so anything we add stays there effectively forever.  Cutting emissions by 20% globally would just mean that it takes 25% longer to get to the same place.  Given the way we're melting extremely high carbon soils in the Arctic it seems wildly optimistic to me to assume that the net flux into soils will even be positive.  Solubility in the ocean is almost exclusively by an acid neutralization reaction which saturates, giving a dissolved CO2 increase proportional to (1/PCO2 preindustrial) - (1/PCO2).  The shallow ocean eqilibrates almost immediately.  There is a flux into the deep ocean which equilibrates over around 300 years, and is still near preindustral concentrations, but this flux saturates and doesn't rise linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Barring some some extremely unlikely scenarios, it seems that we are already committed to more than 2C of global warming, and it seems to me that we are now deciding whether we want to live in a world with 4C or 8C or warming.  Given what this summer looked like with 1C of warming, which one do you think makes more sense?

Think about whether or not you like to eat before answering.

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Re: Problem Solved. Global Warming is Here.

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 07:39:32 AM EST

none

CO2 emissions in the US in the first quarter were down 8% year on year, but around half of that was due to freakishly warm weather.   So why all the focus on the quarter which was due to coal to gas generation switching?
Because 'dog bites man' is not news.

... use the warm winter weather to make the argument that global warming isn't going to happen, as the headlines imply?

...The reporting on this issue seems to me to be assuming that we can make this one-time switch every year...

...we don't need to do anything else, as the article seems to imply?

The only thing being implied is that if one's goal is to reduce CO2 emissions, one must conclude that governments have failed and that market forces have succeeded. The only thing being assumed is that markets will continue to succeed where governments continue to fail.

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Lomborg fracked her?

secretpath.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 06:09:28 PM EST

5.00 (succinct)

You are conflating different standards for "success" here.

The market succeeded in reducing the cost in dollars per kWh because a lower cost fuel became available. This is exactly what we expect the market to do. The only reason it succeeded in reducing CO2 emissions is because the lower cost fuel happens to emit less CO2 per kWh than the fuel it is displacing. But cheaper fuels are not necessarily cleaner fuels. The market, absent some price on carbon, has no incentive to reduce CO2 emissions, and if a cheaper fuel were available that emitted more CO2 than coal, it would be adopted as soon as the power plants could be built to exploit it.

To frame this as an example of the free market's success in addressing environmental concerns is intellectually dishonest garbage.

...but since no one was listening, we must begin again.

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Re: Lomborg fracked her?

Shy Elf.

Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 09:01:56 PM EST

5.00 (funny, funny)

You clearly don't understand how to correctly account for unintended side effects of government action.  If it's a positive outcome, the outcome wasn't intended, so the credit belongs to the free market.  If it's a negative outcome, clearly the government deserves the blame.

We've had widespread switching from coal to natural gas for quite some time now, due to pollution controls designed to reduce SO2 and NOx.  Since the positive outcome of CO2 reduction was not an intended effect of the government regulation, clearly the free market deserves all the credit for the generation switching.

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Re: Lomborg fracked her?

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:27:02 AM EST

none

We've had widespread switching from coal to natural gas for quite some time now, due to pollution controls designed to reduce SO2 and NOx
And because of cheaper natural gas, which had little to nothing to do with government policy.

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Re: Lomborg fracked her?

AngryWhiteMan.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:56:42 AM EST

5.00 (brilliant, succinct)

The idea that the Invisible Hand is now correcting for externialities is just smash you head on the desk stupid. It really has that clue-proof Palin-esque quality.

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Re: Lomborg fracked her?

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:28:21 AM EST

none

The idea that the Invisible Hand is now correcting for externialities is just smash you head on the desk stupid
So stupid, in fact, that only you could have come up with it.

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Re: Lomborg fracked her?

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:25:04 AM EST

none

To frame this as an example of the free market's success in addressing environmental concerns...
Well, allow me to clarify: It is an example of the free market creating wealth and making us all better off. The government's failures are of a different sort altogether.

52

Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

shane.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:15:20 PM EST

none

It must be pointed out:  the entire reason we have a c02 problem is because of greedy capitilists.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:04:27 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

It's true: hippies and communists heat and light their houses with good intentions.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

shane.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:33:46 PM EST

none

Hippies live in 300-800sqft shacks and earn less than $10,000/yr.  Capitilists live in 2000+sqft mansions and earn $50,000-million/yr.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:48:49 PM EST

none

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

shane.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:57:36 PM EST

none

I've seen a family of four hippies live in a 300 sq ft cabin.  That's about the size of the bathroom in either of these two homes you've linked to.  Which do you think is creating more greenhouse gases?

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

zyxwvutsr.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:02:19 PM EST

5.00 (astute)

I've seen a family of four hippies live in a 300 sq ft cabin
What a fragrant home that must be.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

shane.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:03:22 PM EST

none

The embeded energy consumed to allow taking a shit in those homes is far greater than the entire amount of energy used to build a hippy shack and run it for an entire year.

Yeah it's the capitilists who are causing the problem.  Spending a bunch of money to greenwash their homes doesn't make the problem go away.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

tjb.

Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 12:25:07 PM EST

none

2000 sq.ft. is a mansion?

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

indecentspeech.

Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 04:52:35 PM EST

none

What a 2000 sq ft manison might look like: Here.

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Re: US CO2 Emissions Lowest in 20 Years

shane.

Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 11:08:03 PM EST

5.00 (interesting)

I imagined the + sign would have a larger effect..... but yeah, when you compare it to houses from 100 years ago or any remote and impoverished place it does look like a mansion.

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